NRL State Of Origin - Game 1 - 21/5/08

[brad89]

With the teams having been announced today, i thought i would start up the thread nice and early.

GAME 1
Date: 21st May 2008
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Homebush
Kickoff: 8.00pm

NSW
1. Stewart (Manly)
2. Hayne (Eels)
3. Gasnier (Dragons)
4. Cooper (Dragons)
5. Quinn (Storm)
6. Bird (Sharks)
7. Wallace (Broncos)
8. White (Storm)
9. Buderus (c) (Knights)
10. Cross (Knights)
11. Hoffman (Storm)
12. Mason (Roosters)
13. Gallen (Sharks)

Interchange Bench
14. Laffranchi (Titans)
15. Tupou (Roosters)
16. Fitzgibbon (Roosters)
17. Hornby (Dragons)



QLD
1. Slater (Storm)
2. Tate (Warriors)
3. Inglis (Storm)
4. Hodges (Broncos)
5. Folau (Storm)
6. Hunt (Broncos)
7. Thurston (Cowboys)
8. Webb (Cowboys)
9. Smith (c) (Storm)
10. Civoniceva (Panthers)
11. Crocker (Storm)
12. Thaiday (Broncos)
13. Johnson (Storm)

Interchange Bench
14. Marsh (Broncos)
15. Hannant (Broncos)
16. Myles (Roosters)
17. Lillyman (Cowboys)


QLD are favorites to take out the series.
QLD are around $1.65-$1.75
NSW are around $2.10-$2.20

QLD are favorites at $1.80 to win the first game too.

[Ronnie]

Love the state of origin games, will have to find out when it's on over here.

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by Ronnie

Love the state of origin games, will have to find out when it's on over here.

It's on Setanta Sports 2 at 10.30am next Wednesday morning mate

[rleague_punter]

QUEENSLAND QUEENSLAND QUEENSLAND! I hate to say it but queensland will win game 1 no worries

[De La Kruz]

i rekon its gonna be clean sheet 3:0 for maroons ......how shit is nsw side

[Ronnie]

Originally Posted by kevshat

It's on Setanta Sports 2 at 10.30am next Wednesday morning mate

Cheers Kev

Just my luck, been off work sick for two weeks and my sick note runs out on tuesday

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by Ronnie

Cheers Kev

Just my luck, been off work sick for two weeks and my sick note runs out on tuesday

It's repeated that evening mate so don't log on until after the repeat

[Ronnie]

Originally Posted by kevshat

It's repeated that evening mate so don't log on until after the repeat

If only i had the willpower

[Hands Solo]

Can't believe they picked Bird at pivot...and then Wallace at half. Bird's no playmaker so they are asking a lot of guy who hasn't even played a game of finals footy. Still, it must be the season for silly selections, seeing as they went Hunt at pivot - Hunt!? Prince can feel very unlucky, though even Cronk would have made a great deal of sense. His organizational style would compliment Thurston nicely...oh well, not to be. Lilyman? That's a weird selection too, would have Michael Luck ahead of him.

Qld were 2.10 series underdogs before the teams are named, so obviously a big turnaround. Not a fan of betting on the series result personally but should be some ok specs for the games. Have my eye on one series bet but I don't like who it is that I'm liking...

[gurudave]

The only game of the year where I bet with my heart and not my brain! Although my heart and brain are telling me the same thing this year. QUEENSLANDER!!

[brad89]

Apparently someone has put 700,000 euros on QLD
Can't remember if that's for game one or the series but.

[Karel]

Usually tight low scoring games, but don't know much about the current sides. I have a theory with series games, they usually end up 1-1 to get the crowds for the final game. It used to happen every year in the Australia v G.B series and I just kept backing the Aussies to win 2-1..............

Not sure on the track record of these games though, will be watching and seeng if anything takes my fancy.

Latest prices for handicap on oddschecker

[Big Bets]

Yep, one punter had $700,000 on QLD to win tonight at $1.70. There is now a 3.5 start line to NSW.

That's a big bet on what is traditionally a tight contest.

It's a well known fact that QLD haven't traditionally played well in Sydney, I think their record in Sydney is something like 2 from 12??

However their backline is a lot stronger, although like CP I would have liked to have seen Prince get a shot at 5/8. I am not sure about Hunt playing in that position in such an important match.

Another thing to note about QLD is there is no Steve Price, who has for some years now been their best and most consistent forward. Through his fitness he is always able to get up and place pressure on the NSW kickers, meaning QLD were able to get the ball in good position for the majority of the game.

While the NSW halves pairing seam non-creative, they will be tough with Bird a noted strong defender.

I like QLD to win the game, but I won't be placing any bets on it myself - I might wait to see what the conditions are like before the game and look at the Total Match Points line.

[Hands Solo]

I hear there might be showers, but should be some dew anyway. Bird and Hunt aren't playmakers and Wallace is raw, so really the men who put the tries together are largely missing from the game. Betfair line is 38.5, Tab line is 35.5. I think 1 in 7 of the past origins has seen more than 36pts.

More soon...

[Hands Solo]

Ok, some thoughts on the game:

+Absence of playmakers - only Thurston, Wallace and Cam Smith are what you call genuine playmakers. Bird and Hunt aren't the creative types and I think that could affect the scoring in this game.

+NSW Forwards - NSW have the better forward pack, but a couple of things to consider. A) If the QLD forwards can hold off the NSW forwards, Back superiority should see them home. B)NSW forwards seem to be a poor mix - Laffranchi, Hoffman, Fitzgibbon, Gallen, Mason, Tupou - all are more backrowers than front-rowers. You still need someone to take it up the middle, rather than just skirt on the fringes. Also most are 80minute players, and a bit of their value is in their ability to play the full 80. How will Bellamy manage that?

+The QLD left winger: The QLD winger is quite a prolific scorer. A couple of years ago Mogg got a double in a game and Inglis on the left wing has got a few too. I suspect this was in part due to Lockyer and Hunt in the team (For the Broncos, they have a set play where they go to the left wing with two passes/cut outs for them to score. Steve Michaels, on the left wing, scored 3 first tries last year for Brisbane. 2 of the past 6 at least SoO FTS has been QLD left winger, who tonight I believe will be Tate.

+Craig Bellamy: Without a doubt the best coach going around. His management of the Storm is superb. They are disciplined, play to their strengths, defensively organized and extremely efficient. He is miles ahead of Murray or Stuart as a coach and the forward pack at his disposal is 5-star. Bellamy likes to dominate in the forwards and set up the Storms' victories - the ingredients appear to be there.

The other points have been touched on pretty well, especially the ground hoodoo. I think QLD have 1 win and 1 draw from their visits to ANZ Homebush.

Now with all that said and done, I have to say I don't have strong feelings on the game. If NSW forwards find their rhythm I think it will be exceptionally close, and the ANZ Homebush hoodoo has to be considered. Also, if its wet, this will help NSW, as QLD's advantage is in the backs, and expansive football is harder in wet conditions.

So anyway, two bets for me:

Game to be drawn @ 80mins @ 26.00 (Sportsbet)
Origins are notoriously clsoe and difficult to predict. I think at least 2-3 of the past 15 have gone to golden point - perhaps even more. From that POV 26 is value. Also, most club games are 26.00 for golden point, and Origin games are a better chance. This is reflected by the other books, who have gone 21s.

Ryan Hoffman Channel 9 MOTM @ 31.00 (Sportsbet)
If NSW win, it's going to be in the forwards. 2 recent Channel 9 MOTM recipients (Laffranchi - City v Country and Heighington - Knights v Tigers) were forwards who make a lot of tackles and lead their team's hit up count, making lots of metres. Hoffman fits this bill easily, making 30+ tackles a game and 15-20 runs with 150m+ made. He is starting tonight, which gives him the edge over Laffranchi, and his ability to skirt on the edges of the ruck may see him score a try or make a break or two. If it's a tight and low scoring game, this will help a forward stand out over a playmaker and Hoffman is at least as good a proposition as Mason or Gallen, who are almost half the odds.

[harke]

whats the H2H record of queensland on ANZ?any idea crouch potato??

[DeMMa]

Over 34.5 for me..

Something like 1 in 12 has gone over...

time to break that hoo doo

[Hands Solo]

Originally Posted by harke

whats the H2H record of queensland on ANZ?any idea crouch potato??

12 played. 1 won, 1 draw and 10 losses. The draw was before golden point was introduced.

[Ashtee]

Good luck with your plays tonight boys.

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

I hear there might be showers, but should be some dew anyway. Bird and Hunt aren't playmakers and Wallace is raw, so really the men who put the tries together are largely missing from the game. Betfair line is 38.5, Tab line is 35.5. I think 1 in 7 of the past origins has seen more than 36pts.

More soon...

They reported from the AFL game on Sunday that the surface was quite shifting. Is this sort of thing any factor in league, particuarly in regards to your totals consideations?

[Hands Solo]

What do you mean by shifting? Like the ground problems they used to have at the Dome? It can have effect, though for league it's the weather and dew that can have more effect. Not only does handling become harder, but because of the knock on in league, you get a lot of time wasted from scrums etc. as well. Plus it makes ball movement harder, which is vital for scoring. That said, I do recall an NRL game that was quite wet a couple of years ago that had 73pts in it.