NRL Rugby - Round 9 (May 11th - 14th)

[Jumbo]

Originally Posted by bozz

Damn i was counting for overs but didnt happen
Anyways 2nite im taking Roma & Chelsea DNB, also taking the handicap.

GL

I told you the unders!!!
But then again I also said Spurs would cover the 5.

[bozz]

Yeh i haven't had much luck when it comes to picking NBA teams, but i like betting on player performance.
FORZA ROMA!! I knew they would win but not 6:2 I took the win & covered the draw so a good start to the day

Doesn't West ham play Man U this wkend?

[Jumbo]

They sure do!!

[Jumbo]

Originally Posted by Jumbo

They sure do!!

Actually they don't,I got the two big games for this weekend mixed up.
Chelsea play Everton in a massive game foe Eveton,win or draw and europe beckons for the toffees,lose and not to be.
The Hammers play Man U.
Can they conjure up a great escape??I'll say yes,Man U have the FA Cup to think about.

[ads25]

Guys, dont wanna be a party pooper but could we keep the European soccer talk for that particular thread and keep this thread for NRL only. We're getting a bit off track here

Thanks guys, and keep up the good work

[Jumbo]

Mate,the NRL has'nt started yet,are you telling us we are not allowed to talk about anything but League??
It would seem that we like a few different sports and we do take care of the NRL on here,what if we talk about other sports on this thread as we all tend to like it??
We do handle the NRL and handle it rather well,but are you telling us what we can and can't do?? If so will we be barred??

[Hands Solo]

Could be bias here, but I quite fancy Brisbane tonight. The Sharks played on a Monday against the Knights, then some of them played City Country on the following Thursday before travelling across the ditch to take on the Warriors. Now 6 days later they play Brisbane who've had a full week to recover. I could obviously be wrong but I feel that this gives Brisbane an edge, which is enhanced by the fact that I feel this will be a very forward oriented battle that will be slugged out in the forward. I expect a tight, low scoring games.

The past 3 games at Sharkies home ground has ended exactly Brisbane 16-12 Sharks. Worth a pick the score bet perhaps. In the last 2 games at least Sharks led at HT. Sharks at HT by 1-6 might be a good value bet @ $4.75 but I definitely think Brisbane to win and Brisbane 1-12 are the major plays for tonight.

Other game I haven't thought about as much but I do think that Manly had a big Sunday 2nd half performance last round and might struggle to get up for this one. Eels on the line (+7.5) looks good to me but my feel is stronger for the Brisbane game.

[vagabund]

Are there any key numbers in Rugby League (or Rugby Union for that matter)? As in NFL game often results with a difference of 3,7,10,6,4 points.

What do you guys say about Manly (-6.5) 1.91 ?

Last week I got Warriors -8 when the rest of the world was -12. My first NRL bet and Warriors got beat straight up.

[Jumbo]

Geez,your earlty bro,anyway....

Sharks vs Broncos.

I realise the Sharks have played alot over the last 7 days,but I would still prefer the Sharks to the Broncos,history as Crouch has already said is firmly in the Broncos favour and to be really honest,I hate tipping against the Broncos as they have been the stand out performers for the past 10 seasons,but I fail to see the Broncos winning.

If we are going to talk about history,the Sharks had not won in Auckland for bloody ages and yet they won last week and no one gave them any hope of doing so,I do agree that this match will be close,but how close,I'm unsure.The Sharks are really munching the meters up this year and are not giving to much away in defence either,it's a really hard match to call.

The Broncos although a great club just don't full me with confidence this year,although this match could very well suit them if it is a forward battle which Crouch has already stated,but I find it hard to find positives in the Broncos,apart from Carroll,Petro,Hunt and Lockyer and Lockyer has been very up and down to date.

The Broncos over the last two weeks have been very one dimensional,their game against Souths was very much one out runners and it was like watching two sides who really did'nt want to lose,not two teams trying to win.I do still very much like the Broncos,but I see no reason to start backing them yet,the Broncos defence is getting miles better,but against Souths and the Storm they were never really tested.I think the Sharks will win here tonight in a close battle,the Sharks have a very well balanced side at present and are firing well at home,the Broncos have a great side but are just not getting the job done in areas that they used to be cery good at,the Sharks get Kimmorley and Kearney back in and I would rate the Sharks as a decent chance,it should also not be lost on us that Stewart will have talked all week about backing up last weeks efforts with a win at home for the faithfull and I think they may just get one for them.
1k Sharks @ 1.95.

Manly vs Parramatta

Which Eels side is going to turn up here tonigt and which Manly side are going tom turn up as well??

The eels are almost impossible to read at the moment,you think you have them figured out and then they go and thrash another side.It's getting to the point with the Eels and Dogs that you could flip a coin and probaly get closer than picking a result based on stats or history.The Eels seem to be very well off in certain areas but Tim Smith still scares the crap out of me,his face balls are just intercepts waiting to happen and although at times he looks like a genuis,Manly have a couple of genuis's of there own.

The first 5 rounds it was all about Manlys defence and how great they were,now it's about how many points they can let in before scoring more to win.I'll tell you this much though the Manly side in the last two weeks have been behind at the break and then stormed home to almost nick one and did nick the other,they can score long range trys like no body and it's teriffic to watch for the punters,but I bet Dez Hasler is close to ripping his hair out.But Manly over the last 3 seasons have been the second half kings,although I bet Dezzy would prefer if they were the first and second half kings.

It;s a bit of a hard match to call here really as both sides can score points,but the defence is a bit different,Manly have shown they can defend when needed to and score points when needed to,but Parramatta have not truly shown their hand yet,last week the Roosters had chances to score but just failed to get there and it was'nt excellent Eels defence that stopped them,it was terribl play from the Roosters that stopped them from scoring.From the outside looking in you would tend to back the home side here and thats what i'm doing,I won't be betting on this match seriously but I will say that the Sea Eagles will cover the spread,even though it's huge and win by 10.so...
$50 on Manly 1-12 @ 3.10
Good luck to all with your selections.

[Jumbo]

Originally Posted by vagabund

Are there any key numbers in Rugby League (or Rugby Union for that matter)? As in NFL game often results with a difference of 3,7,10,6,4 points.

What do you guys say about Manly (-6.5) 1.91 ?

Last week I got Warriors -8 when the rest of the world was -12. My first NRL bet and Warriors got beat straight up.

Nah mate,key numbers are'nt even a factor in Rugby League,the comp is so close now that picking a winner is very difficult,i Manly are capable of covering the spread but the best bet of the weekend looks to be Wests - 2.5 against the Dragons.
Unlucky with your first bet but I will give you this bit of advice on the NRL.The Warriors last week looked to be the value bet,now I stayed away from that match for one reason,whenever a match in the NRL looks lopsided and very much favouring one side,chances are it will go the other way,you see unlike Rugby Onion and the NFL,these sides are really close in talent stakes and are not seperated by very much,mostly it comes down to the coaching and the players them selves,but you will learn as you go,Good luck for the Weekend,lay on a tip mate,no one here is 100% bro,no one.

[Hands Solo]

Great stuff as ever Jumbo and good luck to you and everyone else tonight. To be honest I do feel this is a Brisbane win tonight, but I might just look to a Bris 1-12 with a saver on Sharks 1-12, will have to see. I'm just as confident it'll be low scoring as I am that Brisbane will win so that'd seem like the smart thing to do I guess.

Btw Vaga, what Jumbo says is spot on. Numbers and stats aren't anywhere near as significant as say Basketball etc. There are a very limited number of trends that I feel play in the NRL, but those ones I think are more from H2H clashes rather than any seasonal form etc. Anyone can win on any given week.

By the way guys, I have developed a bit of an underdog betting system for the NRL. It's probably going to need a bit of tweaking and it might take a while to get going but I reckon I'll have it profitable by season's end. I'll post some details or a link to another thread about it later today.

[Jumbo]

It will be intresting to see your system bro,as betting on underdogs is the sure fire way to make profit,so i'll loook forward to that.
Good Luck to you as well tonight although we are both saying different things,I have the feeling that it will be a great match regadless of the result,and one of us is bound to get it correct as we have both chosen different sides.lol

[Hands Solo]

Cheers mate. I put my system in the systems section of this forum. Link is here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/s...199#post791199

I know this one would have played the last couple of weeks with a couple of upsets I fancied (Canberra v Penrith, Tigers v Storm), so I decided to go ahead and put it into action. Probably going to bite me in the ass this week but I'm hopeful it'll come good.

[Hands Solo]

Sharks v Brisbane bets are;

Main bets: Brisbane to win @ 1.90 , Brisbane 1-12 @ 3.25
Side bets: Total Game Points Under 39.5 @ 1.90, Sharks HT 1-6 @ $4.75
Speculators: Pick the Score Brisbane 16-12 Sharks, Brisbane to win by 4pts @ $19

[blackcrow]

Manly win by 1-12 margin
A pretty consistent Manly side face an inconsistent Parramatta side. Manly are known for having a very good defence and Parramatta have shown that they can get frustrated with a team that has a good defensive line. Also Manly have a great home record as opposed to Parramatta who have only won once away this season. While Manly are expected to win this one, the problem is by how much. Parramatta have shown that they can play some good football when they want to, and there is the possibility that because these two teams share a rivalry from the past, this could ignite the team to play one of their better games. So, rather than take Manly at the handicap i'll take them at the margin.

Cronulla win by 1-12 margin
As mentioned, this should be a low scoring game which should be dominated by the forwards. Cronulla match up well here with Stuart's influence leading to the Sharks having the highest number of dominant tackles in the league. The forwards are utilised so effectively that they have are the leading team for carting the ball forward, which should set it up for Kimmorley and his kicking game.

On one hand you have Cronulla winning a tough and bruising encounter away to the Warriors and now they have to back up from that, and on the other hand you have a below par Brisbane team beating a Souths team in a game with many errors and generally, poor play. As long as the Sharks can back up for this, they should win his as they have shown better recent form than the Broncos.

There is nothing between the teams in terms of points scored, tries scored and completion rates, but on average, Cronulla concede 8 points less than Brisbane. Being at home is a plus, and they usually play better there at night too. Should be a close one so take the Sharks to win, but not by much.


Like the picks jumbo GL everyone with their's

[Jumbo]

Good Luck to Blackcrow and Crouch,best of luck.
Thanks Blackcrow for the mention,I also look forward to reading yours and Crouchs and Dingotechs picks,as you all seem to put a fair deal of thought into your guys selections.
Where is that Dingotech anyway....

[Dingotech]

Hey Guys.

Early in the week I was really torn on the Sharks/Broncos match, but the sheer fact that Broncos looked average last week/sharks looked good and it's a Sharks home game has me keen on the home side.
Looking at the history as already stated these games are tight so to add some value I'm taking the Sharks 1-12 @ $3.40.

I've always been looking at the Manly side this week and having just heard Steve Matai is back I'm looking for them to have a big game against the Eels. The Eels record at Brookie is apparently something like 12 wins in 52 starts, not good form.
I'm going to take Manly to win 13+.

P.S. Hagan sucks as a coach.

P.P.S. Apparently Mark Riddell may be coming back for the Eels tonight, doesn't change my bet though.

Good luck guys.

[Jumbo]

Good Luck Dingotech bro.

[Jumbo]

I'm a real dickhead sometimes.

[Hands Solo]

Gl tonight all. I am the black sheep tonight, I'm on Parra, Parra 13+ and Parra 16-20, but not for much, just part of the system I'm developing. Seems like I'm going it alone, let's see how it turns out.