NRL Round 12

[Hands Solo]

Storm beat Rabbitohs by 5pts. Now everyone is giving them 20pts start because of the Dogs injuries'. Frankly, I still think tonights' Bulldogs team will still beat the Rabbitohs, so there probably is some value in the Storm 1-12 (best odds 4.10 with Acumen). That being said, I just don't quite feel it, and although tomorrow is only June 1, I think the bet of the month is happening tomorrow, so I'm going to save any stakes from this match for that one.

I will however be betting on the Knights v Warriors game. Warriors have won 4 of the past 5 agains the Knights and 2 of the past 3 at Energy Australia. Yes, they are shit on the road and have been poor of late, but I think their good record against the Knights will give them a psychological boost. They are by no means guaranteed to win, but given that most games at Energy Australia are close (1pt wins v Titans and Manly, 12pt losses to Tigers and Broncos) I cannot see the Warriors winning by 13+. All in all, this makes Warriors 1-12 @ 4.50 a great value bet IMO.

Additionally, Warriors last 2 wins at Energy have been by 4pts exactly. A couple of weeks ago Warriors played Raiders, whom they had previously beaten by 8pts exactly on two occassions - They won that game by 8pts exactly, and I'm going to look for that to repeat itself here.

Warriors 1-12 @ 4.50 Sportsbet
Warriors by 4pts exactly @ 26.00 Sportsbet

[Hands Solo]

Markets closed now, but with Chambers out Geyer was still paying $26 for first try (Geyer replaces Chambers in the back line), which I'm on

[brad89]

Only 1/3 overs. Luckily got the draw in the cowboys game, that saved me losing money, and made a nice profit. Almost got the draw in the knights game too, that would have been nice.

[blackcrow]

Canberra win by 1-12 margin
Parramatta win by 1-12 margin


Melbourne win by 30+ margin
NZ Warriors win by 1-12 margin
Penrith win by 1-12 margin

[blackcrow]

St George win by 13+
Souths have alot of problems in the team and is compounded by a lot of problems off the field which only compounds their problems. They face a St George side needing a win to get into the top 8 and with some good recent form. They have won 11 of the past 12 clashes between the two sides and there is little to suggest with the way the two teams are playing that the formline won't reverse itself here.

Gold Coast win by 1-12 margin
Cronulla usually play well at home but have struggled while the Titans have patchy away form. The Sharks have struggled to score and were pretty lethargic in their loss to the Bulldogs on Monday night. They struggle to score points and even though they scored some points against the Bulldogs, overall crossing the tryline has been a problem. Now they back up after that game to face the Titans who have some goof players in form like Prince who will be pressing for Origin selection. The Titas play a simple brand of league and have the opportunity to get back on top with a win here. With two good defensive units, i like Titans in a close one

[Hands Solo]

Originally Posted by blackcrow

Canberra win by 1-12 margin
Parramatta win by 1-12 margin


Melbourne win by 30+ margin
NZ Warriors win by 1-12 margin
Penrith win by 1-12 margin

Wouldn't Penrith 1-12 be a loser, seeing as it went to golden point?

[Hands Solo]

Today's big game is between the Sharks and the Titans. The Sharks have only won around 5 of their last 15 games at Toyota, whilst the Titans have only won once on the road all year, and 3 times in their history (around 15 away games). The Sharks have only had one game all year be decided by more than 13pts (A 14pt loss to the Titans).

Last week the Titans surged late but fell short. That day they were without Anthony Laffranchi, who returns today. Laff is their best forward and gives their team so much. Coupled with the loss of Kearney for the Sharks (Titans also have Rogers out), I think that the Titans can get home today. However, I don't think that there will be much between the teams, which means the Titans 1-12 @ 3.70 is outstanding value.

The other bet for that game today is Preston Campbell MOTM. Last few weeks he was 21s, and I was hoping he would be that today, as it would have been the bet of the month. Unfortunately he is only paying $11, so he's closer to the true odds. However, I can't go past him today with odds still in the double figures. He was fantastic last week, has been for the past 5 weeks, and is playing against his old club today, so will definitely be primed for a big match. Also, as mentioned earlier Kearney is out for the Sharks. Kearney is the Sharks' best broken play runner, as Campbell is for the Titans. I think the contrast in that aspect of the game will be quite noticable today, and ultimately one of the key differences between the two teams. Prince will be pushing for QLD selection so should have a big game too, but I simply cannot go past Campbell today.

Titans 1-12 @ 3.70 Sportingbet
Preston Campbell MOTM @ 11 TAB

[brad89]

Rogers is out for the Titans. It has been raining heavily overnight, and is again now. It will most likely be raining heavily during the game which should make it an unders game?

[Dingotech]

I'm on -

Dragons 13+
Titans 1-12

Good luck guys.

[brad89]

Profit from last nights draw on Titans +12.5 and under 37.5

Titans should have enough to win this, but the 12.5 is for safety. Really shouldn't lose by any more than 10, if they do lose. Weather is real bad here, and will most likely rain during the game, HOPEFULLY keeping it low scoring.

[blackcrow]

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Wouldn't Penrith 1-12 be a loser, seeing as it went to golden point?

Centrebet paid out, so i'll take it then

St George win by 13+
Gold Coast win by 1-12 margin

[DeMMa]

Tiger to win @ $2.70

Syd are too on off etc...

Wests with the big guns firing!!

Gl

[MaKDaddYSportsBET]

With some generally wet conditions out here in Sydney at the moment and the distinct possibility of more rain tonight this really has to tip the favour of the game into Sydney Roosters hands with their big men pushing them forward over the advantage line... Wests would have come into this game as they do most with the plan of out maneuvering the Roosters pack but this will be a harder task in conditions we are likely to see especially nearer to the coast. I really like the Roosters in this one and with stats like 6/1 games won by 13+ to the host and 5/0 for the same at home this seems a real possibility as Wests scoring ability may be hampered somewhat... if not in a major way. The only negative I can see is a bit of wind may affect the kicking games here which is very important to the Roosters however the sword swings both ways and well I don't think that it will be windy enough to have a major impact anyways...

8 points Sydney Roosters To Score First @ 1.73 (System)

1.5 points Any Other Result HT/FT @ 9

5 points Sydney Roosters 13+ Margin @ 2.65

I would also look for Braith Anasta to score however I can only find him @ 2.50 on sportingbet can anybody let me know if there is a better price out there otherwise I may or may not take this...

[Hands Solo]

Can't find an angle I like, so I am operating my speculative bets on the weather. I am hoping it hampers ball movement and keeps the attacking play more in the centre of the field, resulting in more tries from the forwards.

Roosters First Try-Scorer - Craig Fitzgibbon @ 17 (Lasseters - This market only counts Roosters Try-Scorers)
Tigers First Try-Scorer - Ben Teo @ 15 (Lasseters - Ditto, but Tigers)
Last Try Scorer - Anthony Tupou @ 41 (Sportsbet)

[blackcrow]

Roosters win by 1-12 margin
The Roosters have been playing well and the halves combination of Pearce and Anasta with the support of their forwarss should have too much for the Tigers, who have Farah and Marshall playing well. The wet conditons will make this a closer contest but the Roosters should have the better combinations for them to go back on top of the ladder.

[brad89]

Hey, what's everyones thoughts on total points? It's set at 40... I'm thinking overs, but the only thing saving me from losing money this week was a draw lol

[Dingotech]

The Roosters looked the goods last week and Wests have only just put together some rough wins in the last few weeks, the Roosters should just be too classy for them.

1.5 units on Roosters/Roosters

1 unit on Roosters 13+

0.25 unit on Braith Anasta 1st try scorer

[Hands Solo]

I hear its raining pretty heavily, so going overs is always dangerous, particularly if prices haven't adjusted to offer greater value. Final bet to match the others, a Tig to score last

Bronson Harrison Last Try-Scorer @ 61 Sportsbet

[MaKDaddYSportsBET]

Ok so i just took the price on Anasta... I was pretty tempted to take on benji here as Anasta v Marshall is paying 1.75 however that really is a dump in price considering the fact that they are both 2.50 to score... I will go for the simpler approach...

3 points B. Anasta To Score Any @ 2.5

[Big Bets]

The Roosters muscled the Tigers out of that game, but if they meet again or in the finals look for the Tigers to improve dramatically.

A lot of dropped ball from them tonight and a couple of stray kicks cost them dearly.

Keep an eye on momentum leading into whenever they play next - does anyone know when this is?? - and the Tigers could be a good bet to upset the Roosters.