NRL Round 10

[Hands Solo]

Gold Coast Titans v The Bulldogs (10:45BST)	1.45	26.00	3.00	106.15 %	Details »
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Parramatta Eels v Sydney Roosters (10:45BST)	1.53	26.00	2.87	103.85 %	Details »
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Saturday 17 May 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Cronulla Sharks v Brisbane Broncos (08:30BST)	1.57	26.00	2.75	103.85 %	Details »
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Manly Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys (10:30BST)	1.25	26.00	4.65	105.35 %	Details »
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St George Illawarra Dragons v Melbourne Storm (10:30BST)	1.57	21.00	2.80	104.11 %	Details »
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Sunday 18 May 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Penrith Panthers v New Zealand Warriors (05:00BST)	1.72	26.00	2.35	104.29 %	Details »
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Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers (06:00BST)	2.50	26.00	1.67	103.73 %	Details »
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Monday 19 May 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Canberra Raiders v South Sydney Rabbitohs (10:00BST)	1.63	26.00	2.75	101.56 %	Details »
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[Hands Solo]

Was very surprised by the clear favouritism that exists in every game. Was expecting the Eels and Dragons games to be tighter. Ditto Tigers. Conversely I thought the Titans would be giving up a bigger start than they are (-6.5)

Personally I like all the favourites to win this week, bar one, and that's the Titans. Yes, the Doggies have been awfully, but they won both clashes last year and I think this a good chance for them to if not turn it around, to at least get a win. Titans keep Prince which is a bonus and Luke Bailey returns. Still, they are without Laffranchi, and I think that's going to prove critical up against a backrow of Sonny Bill, Ryan and Maitua.

Eels, well they should win, lost nobody but Hayne. Roosters have lost Tupou, Fitzgibbon, Mason and Myles. Eels even managed to keep Hindmarsh. Still, the Eels are a dicey proposition at the best of times this year. Needed a big comeback vs Dogs, Let Knights come back and won by 1, let Dragons back and won by 1, needed a big comeback vs Panthers. Have won last 4 v Roosters and twice by 13+ though.

Sharks v Broncos, no Hunt, Wallace, Lockyer, Hannant, Marsh or Hodges for Brisbane, though Sharks lose their damaging backrow combo of Bird and Gallen. Sharks should get this won easily, the value likely to lay in the 1-12. Sharks haven't won by 13+ all year, only won 3 of past 10 v Broncos and never by 13+. I predict a similar type of game to the Manly v Broncos game last year, where Many won 18-6 in a pre-Origin round. [Sidenote - 3 of the past 4 games at Shark Park involving Broncos have ended Brisbane 16-12.]

Manly should take care of the Cowboys. No JT, Bowen, Webb, Lilyman, Burns. Manly kept Kite and Lyon, and lose only Stewart. Still no Watmough, though may be a late inclusion? Cowboys have the better H2H record though, which is slightly off putting. Still, Origin losses should see Manly win, but I'm not jumping to take the -12.5.

Dragons have lost 9 of the past 10 v Storm, 3 of them by 24-10 (I'm a keen pick the score observer). Still, Storm without half their team, depth will be really tested and the Dragons, despite losing their centre pairing, should have enough to win. That being said, it is the Dragons, without Gasnier, so anything is liable to happen. Want to take 1-12 Dragons but it's really not a good match for betting IMO.

Panthers v Warriors, Panthers won 7 of past 10. Warriors lose Tate, Panthers keep their team. Still no Price for the Warriors, Vatuvei out for a month and of course McKinnon for the season. It's a game Penrith really should win, but the overs looks a better proposition depending weather and the line. 9 of past 10 have gone over 40, Witt is the competitions best kicker and Gordon landed 5/5 last week (Sammut on the bench, so Gordon should keep duties).

A bit surprised to see Tigers so favoured, though perhaps disappointed is more apt description. Knights lose Buderus and Tigers regain Farah and Marshall. Weird to see Head on the bench and Morris at half though.

Raiders v Souths? Worst game of the season most likely. Raiders good at home, have injury troubles - Withers season, along with Graham and Zillman, Hinchcliffe still out, Chalk broke his thumb. Costigan seems to have troubles with his fitness too. Have tipped Raiders but am starting to think that I should be on Souths.

All in all a pretty shit betting week IMO, with overs in the Panthers game the best looking.

[Big Bets]

Like your analysis there CP, and I agree that betting when so many teams are affected by Origin is dangerous, but I have to say backing the Doggies to beat the Titans seems a little crazy!

Sure the Bulldog's may have a great backrow, but they have got nothing in the halves and their entire backline is pretty flat - even though they get Patten back this week.

Their front row and reserve forward are slow, and will struggle against the mobile Titans pack.

With Bailey and Conn back this week for the Titans and playing on the Gold Coast, I will be taking the Titans to cover 6.5.

Manly will do a job over the Cows at home, however I will wait to see if Watmough is playing before taking them with any confidence at the line.

I agree with you CP on the Panthers v Warriors game being a high-scoring affair - weather permitting - and I also think the Penrith boys will cover the 3.5 quite easily with Jennings, Wesser, Lewis and Priddis being too much for the Warriors to handle creatively. Panthers to cover 3.5

I personally can't see the Dragons beating too many teams this year, and I think they will struggle against a Melbourne reserve grade team. The Storm's recruitment over the years has been the best in the comp, so you can bet their young guys getting a chance this week will step up. Losing their coach and three-quarters of their team this week will be hard, but Cronk and Aitken will control things and Matt Geyer is a decent replacement at dummy half. Melbourne plus 6

[pete]

I think the Dragons game is hard to predict as with three of there stars out playing S.O.O. then they will do it tough as they are a very average team and even though the storm have nine players missing i still believe they can win.
Newcastle face a hard game with their stars out and after the very physical game against the storm on Monday night will do it tough as the Tigers have their stars coming back and should be to strong.

[Big Bets]

Pete, saying that the Dragons are average is being kind. They are much worse than that!

Melbourne +6 is a good value bet, for the reasons I outlined above, yet Penrith and the Gold Coast to cover the line still seem to be the best bets that I can see for the week.

Backing the Tigers to win in Newcastle seems a bit risky for my liking. Even though you rightly point out that they have all their stars back, Newcastle will beat a fair few teams this year and the Tigers play a style of footy which can be stifled by the so-far solid Newcastle defence.

I would like to see the Tigers new combinations gelling and playing more games together before backing them with any real confidence.

[brad89]

Aren't Buderus and Gidley the knights best players? Because without them, and tigers getting farrah and marshall back, i can't see knights winning

[coolcricket]

Hi guys, hopefully we can all make some money with this tricky week of betting...

Titans v Bulldogs

The Titans have been in good form this season, while the Dogs have been quite the opposite.
CP quite rightly pointed out that the Titans lost both home and away to the Dogs last season. However, when the dogs beat them in round 3 last year, the titans were coming off their first ever win and may have still been celebrating, the second time later in the season was in the middle of a 5 match losing streak for the Titans.
Interestingly, both wins for the dogs came of losses to the Panthers, and once again they are coming off a loss to the Panthers. Conspiracy theorists will like this one.
Don't really like betting around Origin time, can be unpredictable, but at the current price, I am going to have a small bet on the Dogs @ 2.95 as I think they hold a bit of value.

Parramatta v Roosters

Parra are my team, and I make it a habit not to bet on them. I have no problem with betting on the opposition, but don't really like the Roosters tonight. So no bet for me.

Good luck guys, and have a good one.

[Hands Solo]

Still like the Bulldogs tonight, but with Roberts out I wont take them. I have still tipped them, and seeing as I'm coming 2nd in tipping it'll still be a useful result.

Tempted by Brett Finch for MOTM in the Channel 9 game. If the Eels win nicely, then it's likely that there'll be a few tries set up by the playmaker, which is obviously Finch. Not sure if I will take it or not though, as it is only paying 7.00.

[brad89]

Joe Williams is taking Roberts' spot tonight i'm fairly sure, but i still can't see myself tipping/betting bulldogs against the titans at home.

In other news, kimmorely has signed a contract with the bulldogs and will be joining them for the 09 season.

[blackcrow]

Parramatta win by 13+ margin
Some of Parramatta's players will be upset about missing out on selection for the Origin series and will look to show the selectors what they missed out on. They will have virtually a full strength team to pick from and have a very good record against the Roosters having won 4 of their last 5 games. The Roosters are missing most of their forward pack and look to Hindmarsh to have a big game to take advantage of this

Gold Coast win by 13+ margin
Can't fault the way the Titans have been playing especially at home. With the return of Bailey and Prince looking to convince the selectors that he is worthy of selection, they should be good value to win this comfortably because besides Williams, the Bulldogs don't offer much at all

[wisla_krakow]

My bet for the Gold Coast Titans vs Canterbury Bulldogs game is for the the Titans to lead at half-time an win at full time at 1.72. Goodluck

[DeMMa]

Originally Posted by blackcrow

Parramatta win by 13+ margin
Some of Parramatta's players will be upset about missing out on selection for the Origin series and will look to show the selectors what they missed out on. They will have virtually a full strength team to pick from and have a very good record against the Roosters having won 4 of their last 5 games. The Roosters are missing most of their forward pack and look to Hindmarsh to have a big game to take advantage of this

Gold Coast win by 13+ margin
Can't fault the way the Titans have been playing especially at home. With the return of Bailey and Prince looking to convince the selectors that he is worthy of selection, they should be good value to win this comfortably because besides Williams, the Bulldogs don't offer much at all

**** YES!

Agreed 100%

Both same as myself.. players are shattered at not being selected, they would want to prove em wrong!

[Dingotech]

I've ended up going Titans -6.5 and Eels -5.5

[brad89]

Not placing bets until i hear the confirmed team lists, but... I will most likely be looking at the titans to continue their home form. I'm fairly confident eels can with this well wth the roosters missing about 4? players through origin. Only thing that may put me off is a rumour that mini might come back for this game, but i doubt this will be happening. So i will most likely end up going with titans and eels.

[brad89]

Oh yeah, draws for all games too.....

[brad89]

Left the eels game alone, i can't bring myself to bet on them :P

I betted on titans yesterday and lucky i did... i got them at $1.45 they have now dropped around $1.35 or so

[coolcricket]

Wow, good game between the titans and dogs. The titans were lucky to get away with it in the end, although very disapointed, i think the value was definately with the dogs at 2.95.

Anyhow, well done to the Titans backers.

See you all tomorrow.

[Hands Solo]

Good thing I stayed away from last night's betting, although the Dogs were hard done by IMO. First game tonight is the Sharks against the Broncos. Sharks have only won 3 of the past 10 against the Broncos, but the Broncos are without Lockyer, Wallace and Hunt, who are arguably their 3 playmakers. Add the absences of Hannant, Hodges, Carroll and Marsh and they are clearly struggling for dynamism in attack. The Sharks lose Gallen and Bird who are their main dangers on the edge of the ruck. All in all the Sharks should win relatively comfortably, but it shouldn't be a blow out. Only one game this season involving the Sharks has seen a 13+ margin (18-4 loss to the Titans) and the Sharks generally play a tight and defensive brand of football anyway. Consequentially I feel that the Sharks 1-12 represents a strong bet.

Tip: Sharks 1-12 @ 3.10 TAB

Additionally I have had a small bet on the Sharks to win by exactly 8pts @ 19.00 (Also with Tab)

[Hands Solo]

Seems that we have differening opinions of the Storm game. However, from what I can infer from these posts, its more about opposing a woeful Dragons than backing an undermanned Storm. Either way, I look at the Storm team sheet and I don't see many tries in them. Similarly, without Cooper and Gasnier, I don't see many tries in the Dragons either (though I do see more). Furthermore, in Turner and Soward, I see even fewer goals. All in all, I think that under 39.5pts @ 1.90 represents a very sound bet.

Tip Under 39.5pts @ 1.90 Betstar

[blackcrow]

Cronulla win by 1-12 margin (agree with CP )
Cronulla are missing Bird and Gallen while Brisbane are missing quite a few players. As seen by last night's gmaes, the teams who have lost their players to Origin have their replacements lifting their own performances to make up for it. While Cronulla should have enough to win this, they are a team that focuses on defence and that should stop the opposition. On their attack, they should have enough to beat a weakened Broncos side

Manly win by 13+ margin
Manly have only lost Stewart while the Cowboys have lost quite a few players. Manly are very methodical and play a simple brand of league that gets the points. They are strong defensively which is the opposite of the Cowboys who are leaking tries in. Orford and Kite will look to remind selectors of their worth and Manly should win this one comfortably.

St George win by 1-12 margin
The Dragons have 3 players out while the Stoem have 9. Both teams are boviously understrength but the Storm have been decimated and you would assume that the Dragons will pull this out of the bag, but not with much confidence given their play of late. However it is hard to find first grade replacements for the majority of the team and that little bit of experience should be enough to win the Dragons the game