Heineken Cup - Leeds v USAP (Perpignan)

[GaF]

First of all, I know next to nothing about Rugby, so I would ask anyone who does to please challenge anything I say here that you disagree with.

I used to be lucky. I lived in the sunshine of southern France for about 18 months. Specifically I lived near Perpignan. I'm not a Rugby fan, but there's no football in this part of France, it is 100% rugby, so I did find myself at the Stade Aime Giral on more than a few occasions and I did find myself starting to follow their results in l'equipe (daily sports newspaper). One trend became very clear, whether in "Top 16" (as it was then) or Heineken Cup - they are "homers" - that is they perform well in front of their own fans, but poorly away from them. This is especially pronounced in the Heineken Cup. The USAP team are lucky boys - they live in the sunshine - their only problem? Throughout the winter they get dragged north to distant cold foreign shores - and they do NOT like it!!! Now it's all very well having this feeling, but I like stats to proove a point - so the table below has all of their results for the last 4 years.

Notice the trend? Out of 12 away group games, they have only won 3!! All of these were in Italy (warmer, and lower quality rugby). In this period, they have not won in England, Wales, Scotland or Ireland in Group games. They did win knockout games, but these are a completely different kettle of fish - they are knockout and they are played in April - when it is not quite so cold.

I've left the home games in so that you can see the marked difference - they have so often won their home game, yet lost the away game, against the same team. They have only lost 2 home games in this period - against Wasps and Tigers - both teams going on to win the cup in that year!!!!

So without knowing a thing about Leeds, I have to rank Leeds as hot favourites - best odds at the moment however paint a different picture - Leeds 3.45, Draw 23, USAP 1.5. Yes that's right!! Despite their record on the road, USAP away in Leeds, they are 1.5 favourites - surely that can't be right? Maybe leeds are really really bad? But it does not look to me, on the basis of history that Perpignan can be justified being this short, against ANYONE in a colder climate in winter.

So some research into Leeds - they are bottom of the Premiership, having won just 2 of their 9 games this season. That's why they are such short odds! However, their last 2 games were wins - away to Bath and home to Northampton - both fellow relegation candidates, but 2 consecutive wins nontheless - have they turned the corner? In the Heineken Cup, they beat Calvisano in Leeds, and got battered in Cardiff - in line with expectation I suspect.

This compares to USAP who are second in the french league, "Top 14", moving to within striking distance of Toulouse - despite having lost 3 of their 6 games on the road in "Top 14". They have 2 wins out of 2 in this seasons Heineken Cup - however, no shocks on history - a win in Italy and a win at home to Cardiff.

Usap player Guillaume Bortolaso says this about the game (at www.usap.fr) - "Il faut en effet gagner là-bas pour être sûrs d'être qualifiés en quarts de finale. Si Leeds remporte la rencontre, ce ne sera pas catastrophique mais quand on est compétiteur, on ne joue que pour la gagne…" ("We have to win there to be certain of a Quarter Final place. If leeds win the match it isn't a catastrophe, but when you are competitive, you play to win") - these comments don't really strike me as having confidence in winning - rather it sounds like he's saying it doesn't matter if they lose, but dressing it up in acceptable language!!!

So what's the weather forecast for the game in Leeds? Well not too bad actually (http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/24hr.shtml?id=2575) - 10 degrees and dry!! This is actually warmer than Perpignan (http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0183) where the maximum will be 8 degrees. However playing away is so much more than just the weather.

Overall, through this investigation, I am starting to see why USAP may be favourites, however, I find 1.5 to be a ridiculous price on a team with such a poor record when travelling north and will be having a small flutter on leeds to win this (3.45 at Betfair!!) purely on the basis of USAP's inability to travel.

2004/2005	1	USAP	23	0	Edinburgh
2004/2005	2	Newcastle	19	14	USAP
2004/2005	3	Dragons	27	14	USAP
2004/2005	4	USAP	32	9	Dragons
2004/2005	5	USAP	33	12	Newcastle
2004/2005	6	Edinburgh	40	17	USAP
2003/2004	1	London Wasps	28	7	USAP
2003/2004	2	USAP	26	19	Celtic Warriors
2003/2004	3	USAP	48	7	Calvisano
2003/2004	4	Calvisano	11	17	USAP
2003/2004	5	Celtic Warriors	16	15	USAP
2003/2004	6	USAP	6	34	London Wasps
2002/2003	1	USAP	46	27	Viadana
2002/2003	2	Munster	30	21	USAP
2002/2003	3	Gloucester	33	16	USAP
2002/2003	4	USAP	31	23	Gloucester
2002/2003	5	USAP	23	8	Munster
2002/2003	6	Viadana	35	39	USAP
2002/2003	QF	Llanelli	19	26	USAP
2002/2003	SF	Leinster	14	21	USAP
2002/2003	F	USAP	17	22	Toulouse
2001/2002	1	USAP	56	3	Calvisano
2001/2002	2	Llanelli	20	6	USAP
2001/2002	3	USAP	30	31	Leicester
2001/2002	4	Leicester	54	15	USAP
2001/2002	5	USAP	42	10	Llanelli
2001/2002	6	Calvisano	18	33	USAP

[TheRat]

Good price, and may be worth a dabble. But Leeds are really struggling and are bottom of the league with only 10 points from 9.
Because of this they may rest key players for the league, although the next game is not until boxing day in the Premiership.
May be a tough one to call, although Leeds won their last game against Bath, so they may be confident.

[GaF]

Wow - what a game!!!!!!

Leeds trailing 14-20 going into injury time ...... Perpignan lose a player Sin binned ....... about 4 mins into injury time Leeds score in the corner ..... 19-20 - a crucial conversion from the touchline .........got to be last kick of the game ....... he misses ....... ref blows whistle ...... all over? .... no the conversion has to be retaken ...... this time no mistake ...... Leeds 21-20 USAP - Final SCORE!!!!!!!!!!!!

EDIT Clocks are wrong - this was posted at 16:31

[rugbylad]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

First of all, I know next to nothing about Rugby, so I would ask anyone who does to please challenge anything I say here that you disagree with.

I used to be lucky. I lived in the sunshine of southern France for about 18 months. Specifically I lived near Perpignan. I'm not a Rugby fan, but there's no football in this part of France, it is 100% rugby, so I did find myself at the Stade Aime Giral on more than a few occasions and I did find myself starting to follow their results in l'equipe (daily sports newspaper). One trend became very clear, whether in "Top 16" (as it was then) or Heineken Cup - they are "homers" - that is they perform well in front of their own fans, but poorly away from them. This is especially pronounced in the Heineken Cup. The USAP team are lucky boys - they live in the sunshine - their only problem? Throughout the winter they get dragged north to distant cold foreign shores - and they do NOT like it!!! Now it's all very well having this feeling, but I like stats to proove a point - so the table below has all of their results for the last 4 years.

Notice the trend? Out of 12 away group games, they have only won 3!! All of these were in Italy (warmer, and lower quality rugby). In this period, they have not won in England, Wales, Scotland or Ireland in Group games. They did win knockout games, but these are a completely different kettle of fish - they are knockout and they are played in April - when it is not quite so cold.

I've left the home games in so that you can see the marked difference - they have so often won their home game, yet lost the away game, against the same team. They have only lost 2 home games in this period - against Wasps and Tigers - both teams going on to win the cup in that year!!!!

So without knowing a thing about Leeds, I have to rank Leeds as hot favourites - best odds at the moment however paint a different picture - Leeds 3.45, Draw 23, USAP 1.5. Yes that's right!! Despite their record on the road, USAP away in Leeds, they are 1.5 favourites - surely that can't be right? Maybe leeds are really really bad? But it does not look to me, on the basis of history that Perpignan can be justified being this short, against ANYONE in a colder climate in winter.

So some research into Leeds - they are bottom of the Premiership, having won just 2 of their 9 games this season. That's why they are such short odds! However, their last 2 games were wins - away to Bath and home to Northampton - both fellow relegation candidates, but 2 consecutive wins nontheless - have they turned the corner? In the Heineken Cup, they beat Calvisano in Leeds, and got battered in Cardiff - in line with expectation I suspect.

This compares to USAP who are second in the french league, "Top 14", moving to within striking distance of Toulouse - despite having lost 3 of their 6 games on the road in "Top 14". They have 2 wins out of 2 in this seasons Heineken Cup - however, no shocks on history - a win in Italy and a win at home to Cardiff.

Usap player Guillaume Bortolaso says this about the game (at www.usap.fr) - "Il faut en effet gagner là-bas pour être sûrs d'être qualifiés en quarts de finale. Si Leeds remporte la rencontre, ce ne sera pas catastrophique mais quand on est compétiteur, on ne joue que pour la gagne…" ("We have to win there to be certain of a Quarter Final place. If leeds win the match it isn't a catastrophe, but when you are competitive, you play to win") - these comments don't really strike me as having confidence in winning - rather it sounds like he's saying it doesn't matter if they lose, but dressing it up in acceptable language!!!

So what's the weather forecast for the game in Leeds? Well not too bad actually (http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/24hr.shtml?id=2575) - 10 degrees and dry!! This is actually warmer than Perpignan (http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0183) where the maximum will be 8 degrees. However playing away is so much more than just the weather.

Overall, through this investigation, I am starting to see why USAP may be favourites, however, I find 1.5 to be a ridiculous price on a team with such a poor record when travelling north and will be having a small flutter on leeds to win this (3.45 at Betfair!!) purely on the basis of USAP's inability to travel.

Firstly, superb write-up GotaFancy? Some great stuff here!!!

French clubs, it seems USAP in particular, struggle playing over in Britain and Ireand. Despite Perpignan being the better side, Leeds will definately fancy their chances against the French. Rugby League and Union is all about momentum and Leeds go into the game with lots of it, after 2 domestic wins........

My sport is Rugby League, so I wouldnt take anything I say as gospel .


Found todays line-ups on planet-rugby.....

Leeds Tykes: 15 Roland De Marigny, 14 Andre Snyman, 13 Rob Vickerman, 12 Chris Jones, 11 David Doherty, 10
Gordon Ross, 9 Justin Marshall, 8 Jordan Crane, 7 Richard Parks, 6 Jon Dunbar, 5 Tom Palmer, 4 Stuart Hooper (c), 3 Rayno Gerber, 2 Rob Rawlinson, 1 Michael Cusack.
Replacements: 16 Gavin Kerr, 17 Gordon Bulloch, 18 Scott Morgan, 19 Nathan Thomas, 20 Danny Care, 21 Tom Biggs, 22 Chris Bell.
Perpignan: 15 Manny Edmonds, 14 Pascal Bomati, 13 Christophe Manas, 12 Jean-Phillipe Grandclaude, 11 Frédéric Cermeno, 10 Nicolas Laharrague, 9 Nicolas Durand, 8 Scott Robertson, 7 Bernard Goutta (c), 6 Grégory Le Corvec, 5 Nathan Hines, 4 Colin Gaston, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Michel Konieck, 1 Perry Freshwater.
Replacements: 16 Marius Tincu, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Christophe Porcu, 19 Ovidiu Tonita, 20 Sylvain Dupuy, 21 Ramiro Pez, 22 Samueli Dawai Naulu.

Good luck mate

[GaF]

Originally Posted by rugbylad

French clubs, it seems USAP in particular, struggle playing over in Britain and Ireand.

My sport is Rugby League,

Will be interesting to see how Perpignan Rugby League side perform in their away games when they join the Super League here.......

[rugbylad]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

Will be interesting to see how Perpignan Rugby League side perform in their away games when they join the Super League here.......

Definitely will be interesting. I was going to add this to my post.

I think similar to Perpignan Rugby Union, they will most definately struggle over in England (in the early days at least), probably gettting a couple of rugby lessons along the way (Leeds & Saints). But in the south of France, during the height of summer, they are, no doubt, going to upset some teams, perhaps some of the bigger clubs.

I remember when Widnes played Toulouse in the challenge cup, they were easily turned over.

Las Catalans have already managed to attract players like Stacey Jones, Ian Hindmarsh and French international Jerome Guisset to their ranks, they have a two year exemption from relegation, but I dont think they will need it!!

All in all, a good acquisition to Super League!

[Punto83]

Bet Widnes fans don't think they are a good addition Neither do I as it means Fev Rovers got automatcally relegated with the reshuffle (we were the ones who made way for Paris aswell )

Looking forward to the Rugby League season starting though

[rugbylad]

Originally Posted by Punto83

Bet Widnes fans don't think they are a good addition Neither do I as it means Fev Rovers got automatcally relegated with the reshuffle (we were the ones who made way for Paris aswell )

Hi Punto, long time no see....

You will have to start supporting a real Rugby team then

Warrington?

Originally Posted by Punto83

Looking forward to the Rugby League season starting though

Me too

[GaF]

Leeds 8-10 Perpignan at HT


EDIT ..... Added after game (clocks wrong on PL!!)

Wow - what a game!!!!!!

Leeds trailing 14-20 going into injury time ...... Perpignan lose a player Sin binned ....... about 4 mins into injury time Leeds score in the corner ..... 19-20 - a crucial conversion from the touchline .........got to be last kick of the game ....... he misses ....... ref blows whistle ...... all over? .... no the conversion has to be retaken ...... this time no mistake ...... Leeds 21-20 USAP - Final SCORE!!!!!!!!!!!!

[rugbylad]

21 vs 20 USAP

Geat stuff GotaFancy?

[GaF]

I hit lucky!!! But even if they had lost, had a good run for the odds.

Following the same logic as highlighted in this thread, for the return match in France, I would strongly fancy Perpignan now. I'm sure that will be reflected in their odds, but with a bit of luck, the bookies will see a Leeds win, will see 3 consecutive wins for leeds, and be generous with the odds on Perpignan!!!

[Valiant23]

Where the ---- do you find the time? Do you sleep and type at the same time? Are you a visitor from a distant planet with an ability to stop time (might explain todays problems )?


I bet while PL was down you were drawing up more Excel spreadsheets.

This is excellent work, and I wish I'd caught it in time.

Nice one Gaf?

Ya Kent living freak.

[GaF]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

Following the same logic as highlighted in this thread, for the return match in France, I would strongly fancy Perpignan now. I'm sure that will be reflected in their odds, but with a bit of luck, the bookies will see a Leeds win, will see 3 consecutive wins for leeds, and be generous with the odds on Perpignan!!!

And maybe they won't

Best odds/All odds Perpignan 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.06 1.1 Draw 41 34 26 26 34 Leeds Tykes 9 8 7.5 8 8

Best price percentage: 105%, bookies only: 107%

Hard to see anything other than a USAP win, but I won't be backing them at those odds!!!!!!

Keeping an eye out for the next Heineken Cup away game from USAP. (14th January in Cardiff)