Heineken Cup Final and Qualifying playoff

[2hcb]

Final (Sun - 2:30) - Leicester (-7) v Wasps

Playoff (Fri - 7:45) - Gwent Dragons (-19/20) v Calvisano

First thoughts would suggest that Leicester look a good bet to beat that cap. They have seemed invincible of late with Tuilagi and co destroying Gloucester last week. Wasps will no doubt put up a bigger fight, but they have had a fairly easy run to the final by HEC standards compared to Leicester who have seen off Munster, Stade and Llanelli. Leicester should win but weather conditions could see a tight game and them not pass the cap against a commited, experienced and rested Wasps defence.

Dragons start strong favourites at home to beat the cap against the Italian outfit, but they are at the end of a long season and have a few injuries. I would not be sure of them beating such a high cap given they are not the highest of scorers and this game will be played under intense pressure after their failure to qualify from the playoff against Parma last year. I don't know much about Calvisano and there is no team announced so I'm not jumping in yet, but having managed to come to Swansea and contain Ospreys for much of the match they don't seem like no hopers.

Anyone got any views? DAC especially on the Dragons game?

[Cymro]

My early thoughts on the HC playoff are that the Dragons have to be really careful. I was not expecting a handicap anywhere near that high and with Colin Charvis being ruled out I am leaning towards the Italians with the cap on this one. Lucky for the Dragons Gough and Kevin Morgan are playing who are both inspirational to the team, otherwise another surprise defeat to the Italians could be on the cards.

Calvisano have some decent players looking at their squad, plenty of Italian internationals and we all know what happened in the 6N. The likes of Griffen, Scanavacca, Zaffiri and de Marigny are amongst the weaker Italian players I would say but at club level they will probably go ok.

[2hcb]

your right there cymro, Charvis is a huge player for them. Having looked at their side they are missing the Brews and Cooper aswell.

[2hcb]

For the reasons stated above...

Calvisano +21 @ 10/11 (Stan James)

[Cymro]

I'm with you on this one 2hcb, limited by choice of bookie so have taken +18.5pts @ 5/6 with Bet365.

[2hcb]

hope Dragons still make it through though...

[2hcb]

Calvisano were 15-3 up erly in the second half and from then on it was won but Dragons took their chances to steal the victory 22-15. The italians were perhaps a bit unlucky there. Nice way to end the season eh Cymro?

[Cymro]

Yep listening to it on the radio sounded like Calvisano were going to win for a long time and was regretting not betting on them outright. Dragons sneaking though it is the perfect result - good news for Welsh rugby. Like these handicap bets when the team with a big start rack up a bit of a lead, just a matter of being patient and waiting for the bookies to price them up wrong.

A nice way to end the season as you say not going to touch the other European games this weekend. Only a week though before the summer tours and then onto the World Cup warm ups so not much of a break!

[2hcb]

I hope you'll join me for the summer tours, fancy our chances down in oz? I think the squad actually looks ok on paper and i'd be suprised if we were really battered.

[2hcb]

I have a double on Clermont and Leicester to win their respective finals paying out at a bit over evens. Clermont did the business today so I'm wondering whether I ought to hedge and put a bit on Wasps, everything points to a Leicester win though...

[2hcb]

fortunately I did hedge, but only enough to cover my stake so no profit on this one

still, wins on the playoff, super 14 and challenge cup make this a good rugby weekend for me!