Heineken Cup - Cardiff Blues V USAP (Perpignan) - on Sky Sports

[GaF]

In THIS THREAD I explained why I believed Perpignan were worth opposing when playing in UK and Ireland in the Heineken Cup. I won't repeat the analysis, suffice to say, the reasons still seem valid - indeed having lost to a poor Leeds side, the reasons are stronger than ever!!

Perpignan, did beat Cardiff 37-14 in France, but we know that Perpignans home form is as good as their away form is bad!!!

Team News? Cardiff see 6 Key Players return! (Andy Powell, Rob Sidoli, Gethin Jenkins, Martyn Williams, Rhys Williams and Mike Phillips). Only Nicky Robinson is missing.

Best price at the moment is 1.72 for Cardiff Blues, with Skybet (which means that I can back them with my !wannabebannedbyskybet thread!!!)

[rugbylad]

Yes, I remember your previous thread on this GotaFancy, it was a great analysis, it also had that bit of luck we all sometime need with a last mintue Leeds try

Will try to look a little into this myself

[rugbylad]

Lineups.....strong line-up for Cardiff........

Cardiff Blues: 15 Rhys Williams (captain), 14 Craig Morgan, 13 Jamie Robinson, 12 Marc Stcherbina, 11 Jonah Lomu, 10 Nick Macleod, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Xavier Rush, 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Andy Powell, 5 Robert Sidoli, 4 Deiniol Jones, 3 Martin Jones, 2 Rhys Thomas, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 John Yapp, 17 Duane Goodfield, 18 Craig Quinnell, 19 Robin Sowden-Taylor, 20 Ryan Powell, 21 Lee Thomas, 22 Roger Warren.

Perpignan: 15 Frédéric Cermeno, 14 Christophe Manas, 13 David Marty, 12 Jean-Phillipe Grandclaude, 11 Mathieu Bourret, 10 Manny Edmonds, 9 Nicolas Durand, 8 Scott Robertson, 7 Bernard Goutta (captain), 6 Viliani Vaki, 5 Nathan Hines, 4 Rimas Alvarez Kairelis, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Marius Tincu, 1 Vincent Debaty
Replacements: 16 Michel Konieck, 17 Sebastian Bozzi, 18 Guillaume Bortolaso, 19 Ovidiu Tonita, 20 Sylvain Dupuy, 21 Nicolas Laharrague, 22 Gavin Hume

Saturday's action kicks-off at 13.00 when Cardiff host Perpignan at the Arms Park in a match that will most probably decide the outcome of Pool 2. The Blues are currently on top of the group, having earned fifteen points from their four games, with the Frenchmen just a point behind on fourteen. Cardiff coach Dai Young has understandably named his strongest available side for this game and this match will mark Martin Williams' 50th Heineken Cup appearance. There is likely to be a big crowd at the Arms Park this Saturday and this will not suit Perpignan, who have been all at sea in their European away games in recent years. Excluding trips to Italy, the Catalans have not won an away game since their first in the tournament way back in 1998 but could count themselves unlucky when they made the trip to Headingley earlier on this season. Hence, Cardiff should have a strong chance of winning this game, though you cannot discount Perpignan given the form they are in in the French League and consequently this is a no-bet match for me, especially as I am involved with the Catalans in the ante-post market, as they are still a classy outfit who are more than capable of winning here.

[GaF]

Cheers for your thought RugbyLad - I confess, I know very little about Rugby, and do thoroughly respect your views, however still intend to back Cardiff.

The run of defeats for Perpignan out of France for me is absolutely incredible - especially given the strength of USAP - it is enough that I am totally convinced that there are big factors at work, which go way beyond Rugby in explaining their defeats - it is now just too many games to be simple "variance" or short run bad form - it is, for me, a clear and consistent trend. Yes the run will eventually come to an end - it has to, but at 1.72, I view them as generous odds against Cardiff (compared to last week when Perpignan were something like 1.1 at Home to Leeds!!!).

I know Perpignan were excedingly unlucky at Leeds, but given the two sides, Perpignan should ahve been home and dry a long time before the last minute!!! If a very poor, but lucky, Leeds side can beat them (as well as everyone else), then so should Cardiff!!!

Anyway, come 3pm tomorrow afternoon, I'll probably be regretting this!!!

[rugbylad]

Hi GotaFancy,

The previous post with the squads and preview were taken from a website, and do not represent my complete view, sorry for the misunderstanding mate.........looking back I can see how this has happened.....

It's no bet for me anyway, not because I dont think Cardiff will win (gun to the head, my money would be on them)......just saving for the start of the RL season......

Best of luck mate, will be keeping an eye on this one!!

[GaF]

Oh well!!!! Finishes 21-3 for Perpignan - they finally end their poor run!!!!!!

[rugbylad]

Nevermind GotaFancy............keep them coming!