Cricket: South Africa vs New Zealand Test Series

[kevshat]

A two test series between South Africa and New Zealand begins on Thursday morning and as with the other two series, it's live on Sky. Again I'm starting this thread early due to a potential lack of time this week but I'll get the outrights and 1st test bets up in time.

Best odds/All odds
South Africa	1.4	1.49	1.4	1.65	1.4	1.44	1.5	1.37
Draw	3.8	4.3	4	2.9	3.75	3.75	4.5	3.3
New Zealand	7.5	6.2	7	6	8	7	6.5	5.3

November 2007

Thu 8 - Mon 12 10:30 local, 08:30 GMT	1st Test - South Africa v New Zealand New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg
Fri 16 - Tue 20 10:30 local, 08:30 GMT	2nd Test - South Africa v New Zealand SuperSport Park, Centurion

I'll be back later in the week with the bets.

[kevshat]

I'm going with 2 outrights here too.

4pts South Africa to win 2-0 6/4 Bet365

South Africa are a very strong side on their own soil and New Zealand, going through a little bit of a transitional phase will have a real tough time in this series. The series is Daniel Vettori's 1st series as test captain and he arrives with his team in South Africa looking well short of batting firepower. Stephen Fleming is very experienced and very good but he comes into the seris nursing an injury but other than Scott Styris there is no real test match experience in the batting lineup. Ross Taylor looks a real talent but he's making his test match debut. South Africa have been able to leave Shaun Pollock out for the 1st test and still look very strong. Andre Nel, Makhaya Ntini and Dale Steyn are a good set of seamers and Morne Morkel is still to come back into that. In Jacques Kallis, South Africa have a real class act and Smith, de Villiers and Gibbs can score heavily too. The Kiwi's should be potent with the ball but an inexperienced captain at test level and a poor batting lineup should mean to fairly comfortable victories for the Proteas and 6/4 on a 2-0 win looks a good price.

2pts R.Taylor Top NZ Series Batsman 5/1 Bet365

Ross Taylor has already shown his talents on the international stage in the ODI and Twenty20 format of the game and he looks to have a technique which will suit test matches too. I'm not sure about him batting at number 5 but that's where he's due to bat. I thought he could bat higher but I'm certain he'll score runs on these decks. He had a decent enough Twenty20 world cup out here so he has some experience of what these pitches are likely to play like. He comes into the series off the back of a 36 and 86 in the warm up match and with Fleming nursing an injury, Taylor could be good value at 5/1.

[kevshat]

1st test begins at 8.30am and should be pretty one sided in truth. I'm not interested at a best price 4/6 though. Hopefully we'll get a better price during the match. I'm taking 4 to begin with though.

10pts S.Africa -50.5 runs 1st Inns Lead 10/11 Sportingbet

South Africa have a much better batting lineup than New Zealand here and unless Taylor, Fleming or Oram really score some runs then New Zealand could well end up following on. Smith, Kallis and Gibbs all have pretty decent records for South Africa against New Zealand. They all average 50 or just about 50. Ashwell Prince also averages 50 against NZ. In reverse, only Jacob Oram averages 50 against South Africa for NZ so that sort of shows the difficulty NZ will face here. South Africa usually stick up big totals, especially here in Joburg and I think they'll be over 50 ahead at half time.

10pts M.Ntini's Performance Pts 100&Over 5/6 Bet365

Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket.

Makhaya Ntini has a decent record against New Zealand in test matches. He's got 40 wickets against them in just 9 matches so he averages about 4.5 wickets a match. He's also got 45 wickets from his 8 matches here at the Bullring so the stats show we should be good for 5 wickets in the match from the South African quickie. he'll get through a fair amount of overs with Pollock missing this match and I'm confident we'll get 5 wickets out of Ntini here. If we don't, he could make up points with catches and the bat but I expect him to cover with the ball.

10pts G.Smith 61 runs and over 6/4 Blue Square (1st Inns Only)

Graeme Smith averages just under 50 against New Zealand but when it comes to test matches here at Johannesburg he averages 61.37 and has a 1st inns 63 against NZ here to his name. He's in good form after a pretty solid tour of Pakistan last month and he'll be pleased to get back on home soil where is game is more suited. The Wanderers is generally a good deck to bat on and although he'll have to negotiate Shane Bond 1st up I'm confident he'll weather the new ball and go on and put a score over 60 together.

3pts ew J.Oram Top New Zealand Batsman 13/2 Boylesports (1st Inns Only) (1/4 1,2,3)

Jacob Oram has a decent test match average against South Africa throughout his career. He averages 60.50 in his 6 matches and has the characteristics to do well here at the Wanderers where there is pace and bounce. In the last 18 months his batting has come on leaps and bounds and even though he'll come in at number 6 he'll have every chance to top score such is the speed he scores at. Half of this New Zealand line up aren't good enough for test cricket so Oram might not have too much to beat. He is better facing pace and he'll get a trial by pace here so everything points to the big left armer at least getting a place here, if not top scoring.

[kevshat]

This test wasn't much better than the Brisbane one. -16.9 for this test but SA look well set for a 2-0 win with Shane Bond ruled out of the rest of the tour. The show moves on to Centurion on Friday.

[kevshat]

2nd test from Centurion is at 8.30am.

Best odds/All odds South Africa 1.44 1.44 1.5 1.44 1.4 1.44 1.48 1.5 1.4 1.44 1.59 1.44 1.4 1.45 1.44 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.44 1.58 1.57 Draw 3.6 3.25 3 3.25 3.5 3.5 3.45 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.25 3.25 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.25 3.25 3.6 3.7 New Zealand 9.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 9 9 9 6.5 9 7.5 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 8.5 9.1 10

3 for me here.

10pts SA -99.5 runs 1st Inns Lead 10/11 Sportingbet

The only thing that was likely to keep the South African batsmen in check in this series was Shane Bond. Unfortunately for NZ and their quick bowler, he's gone home with injury. To make matters worse for the Kiwi's their best batsman - Stephen Fleming is struggling with elbow and thumb injuries and is likely to miss out here or not be fully fit if he plays. South Africa will go with the same side which made 422/3dec in the 2nd innings at the Wanderers and with all the changes in personnel, not to mention the South African's comfort on home soil, I'll take the Proteas to lead by 100 after both sides have batted once.

10pts C.Martin's Performance Pts Under 81 5/6 Bet365

Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket.

Chris Martin took 4 wickets in the 2 innings at Johannesburg but I sense things could be a bit different here. Not in the amount of wickets he takes but in the fact that he could well only be bowling once in this match as the Kiwi batting lineup looks poor. Martin doesn't bat. He can't bat so we won't have to worry about him contributing many points with the bat and as a quick he's likely to be fielding in the deep so catches shouldn't be on either so it's 5 wickets to screw us or less than 5 to bring the money in. I'll go for less than 5 as Vettori could be the main man for the Kiwis particularly if SA bat only once and it's 2nd.

5pts ew H.Amla Top South African Batsman 11/2 Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3) (1st Inns Only)

Hashim Amla has only played at Supersport Park once in his career but he made scores of 71 and 64* which was good enough for a place and a top score in SA's match with Pakistan earlier this year. In his 3 matches against New Zealand he's already hit 2 centuries and a half century and that includes his superb 176* from Joburg in the last test match so everything is on his side. He likes the venue, the opponents and he's in form so at 11/2 he looks a very good each way bet which is stengthened by the fact the favourite, Jacques Kallis bats below him in the order.

[kevshat]

Both bets won and Amla placed so I was +19.28 for the test match. +4 from the outrights after South Africa won that very comvincingly 2-0 which meant a series profit of 6.38pts.