Cricket: India vs Pakistan ODI Series

[kevshat]

Really late with this one but it's been a busy weekend. India host Pakistan in a 5 match ODI Series which begins at 3.30am. All 5 matches are live on Sky Sports.

Best odds/All odds
India	1.53	1.63	1.57	1.58	1.57	1.72	1.57	1.57	1.53	1.65
Pakistan	2.37	2.54	2.25	2.35	2.25	2	2.25	2.25	2.37	2.6

November 2007

Mon 5 09:00 local, 03:30 GMT	1st ODI - India v Pakistan Nehru Stadium, Guwahati
Thu 8 14:30 local, 09:00 GMT	2nd ODI - India v Pakistan Punjab C.A. Stadium, Mohali, Chandigarh
Sun 11 09:00 local, 03:30 GMT	3rd ODI - India v Pakistan Green Park, Kanpur
Thu 15 14:30 local, 09:00 GMT	4th ODI - India v Pakistan Captain Roop Singh Stadium, Gwalior
Sun 18 14:30 local, 09:00 GMT	5th ODI - India v Pakistan Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur

Tricky series to call really. In fact, I can't call it. Gut says Pakistan could be the stronger but home advantage gives India a huge chance and these ODI's sometimes comes down to captain strength and I think MSD could be the better captain. So no bet on the series outright but definitely one outright though.

4pts M.Yousuf Top Pakistan Series Batsman 9/4 Stan James

Mohammad Yousuf is quite clearly the main man for Pakistan and he's very much Mr Reliable. Yousuf outscored everybody by 92 runs in the recent series with South Africa where he averaged a very tasty 71.50. Yousuf has the experience to go about his business in his normal solid self despite the potential for the series to get a bit tasty. Younis Khan would probably rate as his main danger with Shoaib Malik also a danger but it looks a 3 horse race because Pakistan still can't settle on a definite opening partnership. Yousuf is one of the most solid and best batsmen in the world though and someone will have to go some to outscore him.

[kevshat]

1st ODI then is from Guwahati. I'll start with 3 bets.

10pts India to win 1st ODI 4/5 Skybet

These two sides are pretty evenly matched but home advantage could well come into play. The toss will be very important here because the two sides have agreed to start this game an hour earlier than normal which means the ball is likely to do much more in the 1st half of the game than the 2nd half. It's very much a bowl 1st toss and both sides have decent seam attacks.

The one area where India could have the edge is the batting department. Yuvraj Singh has been in good form for a while now and in Sachin and Ganguly, India have a settled opening partnership. Word is that Virender Sehwag could be employed at 3 for the Indian's too so they are explosive up top. Mahendra Singh Dhoni will bat 5 and Robin Uthappa is another in form batsman so India's batting lineup could win the day.

Pakistan have very much relied on their bowlers recently. In fact their batsmen could still be reeling from losing the one day series with South Africa last week when they had the deciding game won only to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Pakistan can't settle on an opening partnership and really do rely on Younis and Yousuf. However with the ball, Umar Gul and Iftikar Rao are in great form and the return of Shoaib should add pep to the attack. Spin twins, Rehman and Adfridi could be hard to get away.

India won the last meeting between these two, in South Africa in the Twenty20 World Cup final and with Pakistan employing 2 spinners on a ground with short square boundaries India look to have the edge. They have the better balance and can go 1-0 up here.

10pts S.Akthar's Performance Pts 40&Over 8/11 Bet365

Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket.

Shoaib Akthar comes back into this Pakistan side with a point to prove and he's already begun well, taking 4 wickets on his return to the international scene in the deciding ODI against South Africa last week. If Pakistan bowl 1st then Akthar will have the conditions to really assist him but if they bowl 2nd then he can rely on his pace instead. This pitch has often suited the seamers with the new ball which Akthar will take and I'd expect him to get the requisite 2 wickets, particularly as he'll bowl at the death too. Should he fail with the ball though, he could claim a catch and he's no absolute mug with the bat so points could come from that route but I'd very much expect 2 wickets from the Rawalpindi Express here.

5pts ew S.Malik Top Pakistan Batsman 11/2 Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3)

Sort of a weird bet here given that I've taken Mohammad Yousuf outright for Pakistan's top batsman but at 11/2 I'd take an ew payout here and at 11/2 Malik is exceptional value. He's one of the 3 consistent scorers for Pakistan and is quite often in the mix and should the main two fail which will happen at some point, then he's the man to capitalise. He's a good player square of the wicket and the short boundaries will assist his scoring. Shoaib Malik was 3rd in the Pakistan run list against South Africa recently, a full 90 runs ahead of the guy in 4th which emphasises how clear of the rest Younis, Yousuf and Malik are and for that reason, Malik must be taken ew at 11/2.

[kevshat]

Two winners there but Shoaib Malik holed out for 2. Still a decent enough match. +5.2 for the game and Yousuf is nearly 50 in front of the main challengers.

[kevshat]

Game 2 is in Mohali from 9am on Thursday and it's a game which Pakistan could have the edge in. 3 for me again.

10pts Pakistan to win 2nd ODI 2.24 Betfair

India and Pakistan arrive in Mohali with India leading the series 1-0. This match though is a day/night match so fortunes could easily change. The pitch is expected to have a great deal of pace in it and that could well suit Pakistan with their seam attack. India have a decent attack themselves but there's more guile and medium pace than out and out speed from their seamers. Shoaib Akthar could be tricky to face here. Umar Gul and Iftikhar Anjum will also look to keep things tight.

India definitely have the edge on the batting though but if they are to bat under lights then that advantage would disappear instantly. Mohammad Yousuf began the series in good form and if he has another good day and the rest of his side score around him then Pakistan should be able to make a competitive total. This is a big game for Pakistan because if they lose and go 2-0 down the series is pretty much gone before it's began. Odds against in a day night match is always where the value is and as such I'm on Pakistan.

10pts S.Ganguly to beat S.Butt 4/5 Blue Square

Salman Butt hit a confidence boosting 50 in the 1st ODI but he isn't and never has been in the same class as Sourav Ganguly. Sourav Ganguly was looking really good in that 1st ODI until he went off his head and didn't get back into his crease and was run out. Ganguly has always enjoyed pace and bounce in wickets so I expect him to go well here. Whenever I've seen Salman Butt in the past he's had a typical sub continent style, low bat and plays in the V so he could be caught out on a pitch like this and I'm pretty confident that Ganguly will outscore his Pakistani rival.

5pts ew Y.Khan Top Pakistan Bat 4/1 Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3)

Younis Khan is a class act with the bat for Pakistan and coming in at number 3 he always has every chance to make a big total. Having played the whole season at Yorkshire he'll be used to pacy pitches and should be accomplished on them. Mohammad Yousuf is obviously a danger but one thing in Younis Khan's favour is Yousuf doesn't score particularly quickly so the longer Khan bats the further away from him he should be. Younis is clearly in the top 3 Pakistani batsmen on this tour so at 4/1 he looks a blinding EW to nothing bet.

[jibby6]

what a game!!! yonus and afridi win the game for pakistan.

[kevshat]

Certainly was a good game, both entertainment wise and for me personally. Pakistan won and Younis top scored. Ganguly scored 6 off his 1st 2 balls then played on otherwise he looked like he'd beat Salman Butt's 37. Good day overall though, +27.4 for the day and now +32.6 for the series.

[kevshat]

The 3rd ODI is in Kanpur in the morning. As usual I'll have 3 bets.

10pts India to win 3rd ODI 3/4 Sportingbet

Pakistan levelled the series with a superb run chase in Mohali on Thursday and India will want to bounce straight back here. I think they will too. They have a 6-3 winning record at Kanpur in ODI's so it's a ground they like. The pitch could well help them too. It's rumoured to be a flat pitch which means India may well go back to their winning side from the 1st match which would mean Murali Kartik would come in for Virender Sehwag. I think that gives India much more balance and with 2 spinners strangling the Pakistani batsmen India would have the edge.

Pakistan may also go back to they're side from the 1st match, which of course they lost. Abdur Rehman looks likely to come back into the side but it is possible that Shoaib Malik could act as a 2nd spinner and Sohail Tanvir could yet play. The pitch should suit India's batsmen more though and with Kartik in the side I'm confident they'll take a 2-1 lead here.

10pts India Highest 1st 15 Overs 5/6 Totesport

India have been ahead after 15 overs in both matches so far in this series and I see no reason why they won't be ahead again. Ganguly has looked in pretty decent nick in the series without getting the big score and Sachin looked at his best in Mohali so India will score freely to begin with. Salman Butt and Kamran Akmal aren't such fluent scorers to begin with and in Zaheer Khan and RP Singh they are facing two usually economical bowlers. Shoaib can be expensive and with India expressing themselves at the start of their innings I think they'll lead after 15 overs.

5pts ew M.Dhoni Top India Batsman 13/2 Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3)

Mahendra Singh Dhoni top scored in the 1st match of this series and if India do drop Sehwag for this match he should bat at number 4 here. He has an excellent record batting up the order and being captain now too should ensure he plays a solid innings. In fact recently he's ditched the flamboyant big hitting and although he scores quickly still he doesn't take so many risks. Dhoni is a quality batsman as his 63 in game 1 showed and batting up the order I think he'll be there or thereabouts at a decent price.

[kevshat]

India won to take a 2-1 series lead but annoyingly were 2 runs behind after 15 overs. Pakistan's decision to stick Afridi up the order did me no favours. Dhoni came 2nd though so a small +0.62 gain on the day but profit is profit

[kevshat]

Game 4 in this compelling series comes from Gwalior on Thursday. The match begins at 9am. 3 for me again.

10pts Pakistan to win 4th ODI 6/5 Ladbrokes

Pakistan come into this match 2-1 behind after losing another great game last Sunday and they'll want to level the series here and send us to Jaipur all square. Obviously an Indian victory will sew up a good series win for them. This match is a day night match and Pakistan's one win in the series came in a day night match so they'll be confident.

Both sides could need a bit of tinkering though. Having brought in their left arm spinners for game 3 it's highly likely that they will disappear here as dew will be a huge factor in the 2nd half of the match and spinners can't control the wet ball. Pakistan have a concern over Kamran Akmal who is nursing a hand injury and is in wretched form. Sarfraz Ahmed has been called up and could play here. Shoaib Malik could go up and bat at 3 for Pakistan. India will beed to choose between Sreesanth and Sehwag in place of Kartik and it's likely to be Sreesanth so that Yuvraj and Dhoni can still bat 4 and 5.

Pakistan will be up for this and the pitch once again looks like it will suit their pacy attack and in a game they must win to keep them alive in the series, I'll take them to do just that.

10pts Over 5 6's Sportingbet

Gwailor is another of these small grounds and with the bat ruling the ball so far in this series I'd expect us to see a few 6s here. We have all the right combinations for 6s in this match. Yuvraj followed by Dhoni for India and Afridi opening and Shoaib followed by Younis for Pakistan with Pathan, Uthappa and Misbah all batting down the order for each side. Most games here have plenty of 6s and a runfest is expected so over 5 6s is the call here.

5pts ew S.Butt Top Pakistan Batsman 9/2 Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3)

Salman Butt is in excellent form with the bat in this series. Scores of 50, 37 and 129 shows the sort of form he's in and there's no reason why on a featherbed of a pitch that he should suddenly lose this form. India have chopped and changed their opening bowlers which sort of shows they're not certain how to get Butt out which gives him a huge advantage. Pakistan look set to load the top order up with scorers and Butt's role will be to bat through the innings again and should be do that he'll be a certainty to place and could well top score again.

[kevshat]

Salman Butt was stone dead LBW 2nd ball and India won the match but there were 7 6s hit so bad day there. -10.9 for the match.

[kevshat]

Game 5 comes from Jaipur from 9am. It's live on Sky again.

10pts Pakistan to win 5th ODI Evs VC

India wrapped up the series with their win in Gwalior on Thursday and they are to take this opportunity to rest a few of their players in this dead rubber ahead of the upcoming test series. Zaheer Khan, RP Singh, Harbhajan and either Ganguly or Tendulkar will be rested for the fringe players like Sreesanth, Sharma and Kartik to get a game.

Pakistan have a different agenda though. They want to win this match to go into the test series on the back of a win. Therefore they are set to field the same side which lost the last match. They will need to ensure that they score more runs though as that was the main reason why they lost in Gwalior. Also Shoaib Malik, if he wins the toss again will hopefully realise you can't battle the dew and will bowl 1st.

The pitch is meant to be a good one and Pakistan have the motivation for this match. If their batsman all come to the party I think they'll net themselves a consolation.

10pts Pakistan Highest 1st 15 Overs 11/10 Sportingbet

Pakistan have the option of shoving Shahid Afridi up the order and let him loose in what is a dead rubber but even if they don't do that, against India's reserve opening partnership, Salman Butt and Shoaib Malik should score quickly enough early doors. India are likely to change their opening batting partnership which could cause a couple of problems and could allow the Pakistani bowlers to get on top early doors. Shoaib Akhtar and Umar Gul have had good series and they can ensure Pakistan lead after 15 overs here.

5pts ew Y.Khan Top Pakistan Batsman 4/1 Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3)

Younis Khan has shown in this series that he's a class act and I see no reason why with his confidence high, that he can't top score again. He currently has the most runs by a Pakistan batsman in this series which goes to show how well he's playing and he looks to be an each way steal. Given that we get our cash back if he comes 2nd or 3rd then Younis has to be the each way call in this Pakistan batting lineup.

[kevshat]

Pakistan won fairly easily but annoyingly a maiden from Sreesanth in the 15th over meant India edged home by 1 run after 15 overs . Younis Khan didn't play so level for the match. Mohammad Yousuf was the series top batsman though so +9 there so +31.32pts for the series .