Cricket: Friends Provident Trophy

[winbet]

Great call on Hogg Kev.
Got tickets for the 4th Day of the England V NZ test which will be my first visit to Trent Bridge this season.

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by winbet

Great call on Hogg Kev.
Got tickets for the 4th Day of the England V NZ test which will be my first visit to Trent Bridge this season.

Ta mate. Needed it .

Hope there's a full day's play for you mate.

[Tranquillizer]

1pt Kent 5/6 (general)
1pt essex 5/6 (totesport)
1pt Yorkshire 11/10 (totesport)

[Matt]

Leicestershire to beat Essex at Evens.

Fully expect us to win this one, hammered Essex a few weeks ago in the county championship just couldnt get the final wicket needed for victory, we have looked prety unbeatable in this format of the game and the home advantage of Grace Road should be enough to carry us through. Team is on fire after hammering Glamorgan at the weekend, Ackerman cant stop scoring runs and we have the best young bowler I have ever seen in a Leicestershire shirt at the minute in Du Preez.

Expect us to win this one quite easily

[kevshat]

I agree mate.

Wednesday 4 June 2008	Home	Away	BPP
Durham v Nottinghamshire (10:30BST)	1.72	2.36	100.27 %	Details »
Hide « Durham v Nottinghamshire
Gloucestershire v Yorkshire (10:30BST)	1.85	2.10	101.67 %	Details »
Hide « Gloucestershire v Yorkshire
Kent v Somerset (11:30BST)	1.86	2.16	100.06 %	Details »
Hide « Kent v Somerset
Leicestershire v Essex (11:30BST)	2.14	1.84	101.08 %	Details »

I'm going to town on the quarter finals here. Two match bets on teams who are almost unbeatable at home and various top bat bets thanks to Stan James pricing up all the matches with top bats albeit at win only. Quick word on the TV match which is Kent vs Somerset. I'm not betting on that match but the ground was under water on Tuesday afternoon so there's a strong chance that the match won't be played on Wednesday. There is a reserve day though should it be needed but the forecast is good for Wednesday so they could get on for a shortened game. With that in mind I've gone for two heavy scorers in that match. I'll do that match bets 1st then the top bats.

10pts Gloucestershire to beat Yorkshire 5/6 Stan James

Initially I wasn't going to back Gloucestershire again in this tournament having already backed them outright but at home to Yorkshire, for them not to be clear favourites is silly really. For the last 10-12 years, Gloucestershire have been almost unbeatable at Bristol. The injury doubt over their captain Jon Lewis isn't a problem now, he's fit as are fellow bowlers Steve Kirby and Carl Greenidge and both could play here. Craig Spearman is in excellent form for the Gladiators.

Whilst Gloucester are getting their bowlers back, Yorkshire can barely find one although Matthew Hoggard does return here. Darren Gough faces a fitness test though so he could miss out as could all rounder Anthony McGrath who also needs a fitness test. Rana Naved and Deon Kruis are both out. As I've said, Gloucester are an unbelievable force at home and at 5/6 they're begging to be backed.

10pts Leicestershire to beat Essex 11/10 Stan James

Leicestershire are going well in all forms of cricket this season and at Grace Road they're almost invincible. Especially over the shorter matches. They have a full strength squad to choose from here and pretty much all of their players have played a major role in recent matches. Ackerman is a run machine at the minute. Paul Nixon, Dippenaar and Jim Allenby are all contributing with the bat while Garnett Kruger, Dillon Du Preez and Nadeem Malik are all performing well with the ball.

Essex's season has revolved an awful lot around two men. Ravi Bopara and Jason Gallian have been in excellent form but in ten Doeschate and James Foster they have a pair of match winners. Danish Kaneria has joined the side now and will pose a threat. David Masters returns to his old hunting ground for the 1st time. Leicestershire dominated a 4 day match between these two a couple of weeks ago and I think they'll use that to go and win this.

Ok, onto the top bats. 5 in total but I'll do the TV match ones 1st. Bigger stakes there purely because of the ew option.

5pts ew I.Blackwell Top Somerset Batsman 6/1 Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3)

Ian Blackwell is a prolific run scorer in one day cricket and he's in form too coming here off the back of smashing 158 vs Surrey last week. Blackwell is Somerset's 2nd highest run scorer in this competition this season too with over 200 runs to his name which include a couple of 50's. That's shown he can top score in full matches but should this match be shortened because of the flooded outfield then Blackwell's natural aggression could well push him up the order a place or two which would give him a further advantage. However the match pans out though, I expect Blackwell to be there or thereabouts after the Somerset innings.

2pts ew A.Mahmood Top Kent Batsman 16/1 Boylesports (1/4 1,2,3)

Azhar Mahmood is another big hitting batsman. He's not had the best of tournaments in terms of run scoring but a lot of that is purely down to the fact that he's not had many innings and when he has, he's been coming in very late. He'll normally bat at 7 or 8 but should this match be shortened he'll come in much higher. He could even come in as high as 3 if Kent want a pinch hitter. When he does come in though he'll naturally score quickly so no score will be beyond him. He would be an outside bet for a place in a 50 over match but a real contender in a shortened match so at 16/1 Azhar is getting backed ew to a small stake.

Now the win only ones at Stan James.

2pts D.Benkenstein Top Durham Batsman 5/1 Stan James

Durham's batting hasn't been as strong as it has been in recent seasons. One man who has rescued them a few times already this season is their captain Dale Benkenstein. He also comes here in good nick having hit 110 against Sussex in the Championship last week. Benkenstein is 3rd on Durham's runscorer list in this competition behind Di Venuto and McKenzie but they both bat above Benkenstein and I'm going for Benkenstein not just because of his form but because Notts' most dangerous bowlers are Shreck and Pattinson with the new ball. If they do some damage, Benkenstein can rebuild and rescue Durham again.

2pts C.Spearman Top Gloucestershire Batsman 7/2 Stan James

Craig Spearman is way way clear of any other Gloucestershire batsman in terms of run scoring in this competition. He has 360 runs so far with 3 half centuries and a 140 not out against Somerset. The next person on the list is Alex Gidman with a relatively low in contrast 147 runs. Not only is Spearman in good form in this competition he also comes here fresh from whacking 95 against Warwickshire in the Championship last week. Spearman has been batting 4 for Gloucester so far in this but he oculd easily open but on current form looks a good price to top score at 7/2.

2pts H.Ackerman Top Leicestershire Batsman 3/1 Stan James

Only Martin van Jaarsveld and Usman Afzaal have scored more runs in the Friends Provident Trophy this season than HD Ackerman. The Leicestershire opener has been in fine form having hit two centuries in the tournament already. As well as that, he hit a superb 164 in the Championship against Glamorgan last week so he's still in good form. Dippenaar and Nixon are batting well but Ackerman will open in this match and he could be away and gone before they get into bat. 3/1 is short but Ackerman is definitely the form horse for Leicester and is worthy of a small stake to top score again.

[WoodyTHFC]

Ravi Bopara smacks 201 not out off 138 balls I know I gave the bloke a bit of stick in the other thread but that is a top top knock in anyones book and he is in really good form at the moment in county cricket, be interesting to see if he can sustain it throughout the season? Wonder how he will bowl now

[Sir Fernando]

Originally Posted by WoodyTHFC

Ravi Bopara smacks 201 not out off 138 balls I know I gave the bloke a bit of stick in the other thread but that is a top top knock in anyones book and he is in really good form at the moment in county cricket, be interesting to see if he can sustain it throughout the season? Wonder how he will bowl now

yeah saw that, its the way he scored under pressure that was most impressive, Essex were in big trouble as he came to the crease.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Sir Fernando

yeah saw that, its the way he scored under pressure that was most impressive, Essex were in big trouble as he came to the crease.

Just got back from Grace Road....It was absolutely unreal, the best knock I have ever seen from any player in my life.

Its amazing when you see him like that you wonder why he has struggled so badly at international level, has the talent.

[kevshat]

That's fcuked the England selectors plans up! It was pretty much a given that in dropping Mustard they was going to open with Wright and Cook and Ambrose bat down at 7. Bopara can't open and there's no other spot unless he takes Dimi's spot at 8 so it could be that we end up leaving a guy out who's just spanked 200 not out!

Awful day for me today. Not one bet winning and not one close. I need a bit of help from the top bats tomorrow but moving that match to Beckenham hasn't helped me in the slightest there but I'm due a bit of luck in this competition so let's hope it comes tomorrow. I'll update the P/L after tomorrow's match.

[winbet]

Amazing knock by Bopara.

Surely England will find a place for him now. His bowling is pretty useful as well.

Please let him take Bell's spot. Or if not then maybe for Shah?

[kevshat]

He has to play now doesn't he. And if he does well I can't see why he wouldn't get into the test side either on the back of it.

As I suspected, moving the last quarter final to Beckenham did me no favours at all. -40 for the last 2 days so back to -49.59pts for the competition.

Semi final draw is:
Durham vs Kent (4th July)
Essex vs Yorkshire (5th July)

Both matches will be on Sky so hopefully there will be plenty of markets to attack

[kevshat]

1st semi final tomorrow. Durham vs Kent. I'm going with 4 in total including two big priced top bats as the Riverside isn't the highest scoring ground going.

10pts Kent to beat Durham 11/10 Coral

Durham and Kent meet at the Riverside for a place in the Lords final in August. Both sides are good one day sides who had stellar seasons last year. Durham won this title while Kent won the twenty20. Both sides have made it to the quarter finals in that competition which emphasises their standards in limited overs cricket.

Durham have Paul Collingwood in their side for this match. In fact they are at full strength bar Graham Onions. Phil Mustard will hope to impress the England selectors the day after being named in England's 30 man preliminary Champions Trophy squad. Liam Plunkett will be hoping to do the same. Albie Morkel and Shaun Pollock bring a further South African alternative to South African skipper Dale Benkenstein. Benkenstein will be able to call upon the services of Steve Harmison for this match.

Kent have a couple of men in that 30 man squad themselves and they'll want to do well too. Rob Key skippers the side and opens while James Tredwell is the spin option who can bat. Joe Denly was in good nick in the twenty20 and will hope to carry that on. Martin van Jaarsveld comes into this match off the back of a good Championship match with the bat. Yasir Arafat has been bowling brilliantly this summer and will be partnered with the new ball by Azhar Mahmood.

Durham for me are just a batsman light. Sure Collingwood is back for this one but he's hardly scored a run all season bar a couple of one day international knocks. Albie Morkel looks like batting 6 and he's a hitter not a batsman. Kent can justifiably claim they bat down to 11 and it's that batting strength on a ground where big scores aren't frequent which could hold the key for Kent to go to Lords.

10pts Durham Highest 1st 15 Overs 5/6 Stan James

Durham tend to pack their hitters up the order unlike most sides. Phil Mustard is obviously the standout but the likes of Collingwood and Benkenstein will bat 4 or 5 while Kent with go with Denly and Key as their openers. They may decide to use Yasir Arafat at number 3 but equally they've been using James Tredwell there. The key difference though is that Pollock will take the new ball and he's still as miserly as ever. His 6 or 7 overs in these 1st 15 could well be the difference when we consider Kent will open up with Arafat and Mahmood, who can both be a touch expensive at times. Pollock and Mustard give Durham a winning 15 over combination.

2pts ew Y.Arafat Top Kent Batsman 33/1 Coral (1/5 1,2,3)

Yasir Arafat was batting at number 3 in the twenty20 for Kent and if they lose an early wicket they could just use him at 3 again. It wasn't too successful until the last match where he smacked 42 in next to no time. With matches here tending to be low scoring a quick burst like that could prove to be the difference. I remember backing Andy Bichel in the semi here last year for Essex because he could bat at 3. He did and top scored. Arafat can bat normally though so he could come in at 7 and still trouble the scorers. This isn't a high scoring ground so if Kent get into trouble, the length of their batting order with Arafat at 7 or 8 can get them out of bother. At 33/1 Arafat is good value for a small each way bet.

1pt ew L.Plunkett Top Durham Batsman 33/1 Coral (1/5 1,2,3)

As I've said in other bets this isn't a high scoring ground and we only have to look to the quarter final here to see that. Durham stuttered big time in that match emphasising that their batting is a touch on the weak side. Notts' 188 was nearly enough to win that quarter final. Liam Plunkett is someone who can do both innings. He can play the knock it around and get Durham out of trouble innings or he can do that bosh it innings if the required run rate is on the high side. With Durham's batting having a fragile nature to it coupled with the low scoring trend at the ground Plunkett looks a solid ew option who is worthy of a small stake.

[mdivenuto]

I am risking a punt on Arafat as well, for reasons outlined above. Hopefully he will get shoved up the order to 3 or 4, as if not he is unlikely to be any higher than 9. At 33s with 3 places and decent chance of early wickets it's worth a go.

Similar logic for durham top bat, I prefer Breese at 25s who will most likely bat at 8, ahead of Plunkett at 9.

Looking ahead to Saturday, Graham Napier is available at 12s. We all saw the unbelivable 2020 knock when he batted at 3, the big question is will he be back down the order for the 50 over version?

[kevshat]

That was a decent day for me. Kent won easily despite being well behind after 15 overs. +17.33 for the day overall and that eats into the loss which now stands at -32.26 for the tournament.

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by mdivenuto

Looking ahead to Saturday, Graham Napier is available at 12s. We all saw the unbelivable 2020 knock when he batted at 3, the big question is will he be back down the order for the 50 over version?

My opinion of this is mate that a) I don't think they will bat him at 3 but if they are silly enough to is he really worth backing? He is a bowler who can bat a bit and I'd emphasise the a bit. It's all well and good smacking long hops and full tosses from shitheap bowlers in a twenty20 match where the boundaries were spitting distance apart but it's a different scenario here in that a) the boundaries will be back (they won't use a rope straight for starters) and b) Yorkshire have a bowling attack which can bowl well! I can see where the attraction lies but he won't hit 152 ever again or anything close to it so I'm a massive against that bet. I wish you well if you do go with it though mate

[kevshat]

2nd semi final and I'll go with 3.

10pts Essex to beat Yorkshire 3/4 Sportingbet

Essex come into this match off the back of a decent twenty20 campaign and a solid Championship win over Derbyshire. Yorkshire also made the quarter finals of twenty20 but a defeat to Durham in the Championship, where they head on Monday for that quarter final just took a bit of an edge off their form.

Essex have quarter final hero Ravi Bopara back for this match. Alastair Cook has been allowed to play too which is a boost for the Eagles. Mark Pettini is fit again and captains the side while James Foster and Ryan ten Doeschate are key cogs in the batting lineup. David Masters and Graham Napier are the main seamers and are bowling well while Kaneria guarantees wickets whenever he plays.

Yorkshire's form men are Tim Bresnan and Anthony McGrath. This is a big match for them with this being Gough's last season and he's desperate to leave the scene with a trophy. Michael Vaughan hasn't been given permission to play but Rana Naved returns to the bowling attack for this match. Adil Rashid could be vital as the spin option.

For me, and I've said it all season, Yorkshire are a batsman light. Essex don't have that problem as they could in theory bring Graham Napier in at number 9. Home advantage is often key at Chelmsford and Kaneria could be the main difference. I think most factors just point to Essex so I'll go with them.

5pts ew J.Foster Top Essex Batsman 8/1 Coral (1/5 1,2,3)

James Foster has been in brilliant form with the bat in one day cricket. When we saw him last on the TV cameras against Sussex he hit a 23 ball 48 which emphasised his good form. He's a decent one day batsman overall and he's overpriced in a market dominated by Cook and Bopara. Naturally we'll need them to fail for Foster to take the top bat but if they don't 3rd place gives us a solid profit so I think that makes the Essex wicket-keeper a good ew bet.

1pt T.Bresnan Man of the Match 14/1 Boylesports

Tim Bresnan is having a superb season and is currently 2nd in the PCA county rankings, behind only Martin van Jaarsveld who has suddenly gone off his tits with the bat. The fact Bresnan is in seriously good nick this season makes this price big enough but that fact he bats and bowls makes it even more ridiculous. I expect Essex to win the game but should Yorkshire pull off an upset Bresnan is extremely likely to have played a significant role so I'll have a small bet on the chubby Yorkshireman to get the man of the match honours.

[kevshat]

Poor staking from me today meant a loss of 3.5pts but a decent enough profit for the two semi finals which I'll take and I've an outside chance of ending this tournament in profit. -35.76 for the competition. Final is Kent vs Essex, two sides I know pretty well having followed Hampshire over the years. That final is 16th August.

[kevshat]

The final of the FP Trophy is tomorrow. It's Essex vs Kent at Lords.