Cricket: England vs New Zealand Test Series

[kevshat]

England host New Zealand in a 3 match test series which begins on Thursday. We are expected to win easily but that wasn't how it panned out in NZ 2 months ago so will we be more convincing on home soil?

England 1.25 365" onclick="a(0,249990527,1,4,0,15); return false;" onmouseout=cellExit(this);>1.25 1.25 1.65 1.26 1.22 1.3 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.2 1.33 1.25 1.25 1.22 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.28 1.27 1.3 Draw 5 365" onclick="a(0,249990528,9,2,0,15); return false;" onmouseout=cellExit(this);>5.5 5 2.75 5.7 5.5 4.5 5 5 6 5 4.5 5.5 5 5 5 5.5 5.5 5 5 4.5 4 6 6.4 New Zealand 11 365" onclick="a(0,249990529,10,1,0,15); return false;" onmouseout=cellExit(this);>11 10 6.5 11 11 8 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 10 11 12 12.5

Best price percentage: 84.3%, bookies only: 85.7%

May 2008

Thu 15 - Mon 19 11:00 local, 10:00 GMT	1st Test - England v New Zealand Lord's, London
Fri 23 - Tue 27 11:00 local, 10:00 GMT	2nd Test - England v New Zealand Old Trafford, Manchester

June 2008
Thu 5 - Mon 9 11:00 local, 10:00 GMT	3rd Test - England v New Zealand Trent Bridge, Nottingham

[kevshat]

I'll return to this thread with a few thoughts and bets in the next couple of days.

[Pie-chucker]

Not often I even contemplate the draw but Lord's pitch should be a belter. 4 of last 4 tests drawn here, an unusual ground stat nowadays.

Can't see either of the spinners closing the deal in later stages. Vettori averages 2 wkts a match here in 2 outings and Monty 3 wkts a match in 4.

This could be a very hard slog for both bowling sides.

Series -

Broad looks a decent shout to go over the runs spread of 85-95. Has a test ave of 23 and expect him to get a maiden 50 in the series. Problem is the competition in the bowling ranks. Will want him to play all 3.

1 pt BUY Broad runs @ 95

Redmond, the kiwi opener, seems in decent touch. Untested at this level but looks the right stuff. 165-180 is a fair shout for series runs, but I'll tickle over. Unknown quantity notwithstanding.

0.5 pts BUY Redmond runs @ 185

[Pie-chucker]

* Buy Redmond runs @ 180 (not 185) *

Will leave the Lord's match result alone for the moment. If Kiwis are going to make a fist of it, much may depend on all-round Oram. He took 5 wkts in his last, recent test against England and has a 50 to his name on his one Lord's appearance. Big-hearted cricketer I'm happy to back here.

1st test

0.5pts BUY Oram performance @ 106

[Charlie Wong]

quite like the draw, normally get a few runs at Lords, hopefully both teams can score 400+ each and with a bit of rain forecast.

[kevshat]

Just one bet for me for the series.

10pts R.Sidebottom's Series Wickets - Over 13.5 4/5 Bet365

Ryan Sidebottom took 24 wickets in the series in New Zealand in March and looks set for another decent series here. He's being playing county cricket so he's got some overs and wickets under his belt and I can't see him not taking wickets here. He's England's player of the year which will give him further confidence and needing to average less than 2.5 wickets per innings the Nottinghamshire paceman looks a good thing to take 14 wickets.

[kevshat]

3 for the test to begin with.

10pts S.Broad's Performance Pts 85&Over 4/5 Bet365

Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket.

Stuart Broad looks like he could be the answer to England's number 8 problem. He bats pretty well down the order and he's a top notch bowler too. In order to cover this total we need Broad to take 5 wickets but at the very least over two innings he'll score 5 runs so 4 wickets will be enough to cover this total. Broad could well score more than 5 runs so he may not even need 4 wickets. He's been in great form with the bat and the ball for Nottinghamshire and I think he'll cover 85pts here.

10pts R.Taylor to beat J.How (1st Inns Only) 5/6 Blue Square

In the two matches Ross Taylor and Jamie How have played on this tour, Taylor has beaten How in both 1st innings. In truth Taylor hasn't done much on tour yet which I put down to coming back to 1st class cricket having played twenty20 cricket. How's done fairly well and he's a batsman I rate but up against Sidebottom and Anderson with the new ball on the slope at Lords How could struggle a bit more. Ross Taylor showed his quality in New Zealand and coming in at 4 he may well face Collingwood and Broad. Overall I think Taylor is the better batsman and I think he'll beat How 1st time around.

3pts ew D.Vettori Top New Zealand Batsman 14/1 Coral (1/5 123) (1st Inns Only)

Daniel Vettori is too good a batsman to be double figures in any match least of all a test match at a notorious ground when most of his teammates haven't played here. In truth this is a poor batting lineup for New Zealand. It's certainly not as strong as the one which New Zealand fielded 2 months ago. Vettori was among the top scorers in that series and with the likes of McCullum - as hit and miss as they come - coming in at 5, Vettori even batting 8 may not have much to beat. Inexperience runs through this Kiwi batting lineup and Vettori may well need to perform a rescue act. Even if he doesn't he averages well over 40 in test cricket in the last 18 months so he can clearly bat and I'll take a chance on the Black Caps captain top scoring here.

[Charlie Wong]

if the Kiwi's can get anything around 300, i think they've had a result.

[kevshat]

That was a decent enough innings for me, Sidebottom got 4 of the 14 wickets I need him to get, Broad is almost halfway to his performance, Taylor beat How and Vettori was 2nd at a double figure price. Looking good thus far

[Pie-chucker]

Good picking there, Kev

5.00am Sat from the Met office

There is a moderate risk of a severe event affecting southern England during the first half of Saturday. There is a potential for heavy rain, sometimes thundery, to give accumulations of around 25 mm locally.

Yet BBC and CNN prefer occasional showers. This webcam is 5 mins from Lord's. http://www.abbeyroad.com/visit/#

[kevshat]

Cheers Pie .

Broad's wicket today brought his performance in so all 3 bets came in for this test. +21.7 for the test match for me and it looks like everyone else made some cash too so a good test match all round .

[Pie-chucker]

+ 31 on only bet at Lord's. I think Kiwis rather shaded that match, if you take losing an important toss into consideration.

England to win at OT, but at 11/8 will not be on it.

I take Broad to go well. Predict a 50 from him in this series, and it could well be here. Extra bounce here will suit his bowling (height) and think he just gets better by the game. OT test debut. 365 have only bumped him up 3 perf points on his Lord's quote.

36pts Broad perf 88+ @ 5/6

3pts Broad MoM @ 14-1

Sideshow has one test go at OT, against Windies last summer. Bowled 27 wicketless overs in the 2nd innings. 3 wickets in match. Blew hot and cold at Lord's and happy (ish) to oppose him here.

12 pts Sidebottom perf -118 @ 5/6

I'd play Tremlett for Anderson here, but doubt if they will.

[Pie-chucker]

* 8/11 * England, I meant. Likely result, but not worth piling in to.

[kevshat]

England unchanged. With Hampshire playing their last 2 FP group games this weekend I'm not too disappointed .

[Charlie Wong]

I'll take the draw again for the 2nd test @ a fair 7/2 with skybet, really dont think England are that much better than NZ, both teams evenly matched. Plus maybe a bit more rain forecast.

[kevshat]

I'm going with 4 initially here. I'm sticking with a couple of players from the 1st test and adding a couple of others.

10pts S.Broad's Performance Pts 88&Over 5/6 Bet365

Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket.

Stuart Broad covered his performance in the 1st test despite England only batting once and bad weather restricting England to 16 New Zealand wickets. Broad bowled well at Lords and this Old Trafford track should suit him down to the ground. It has pace and bounce and bowling from the height he does he could cause some carnage. Pace and bounce doesn't faze him when batting either and when this match finishes I expect Broad to have contributed 88pts at least.

10pts A.Redmond's Match Runs 58&Over 5/6 Bet365

Aaron Redmond didn't have the best of test matches at Lords with 0 and 17 as his contributions but I'm prepared to let him have that one as Lords isn't an easy place to bat with the slope and England bowled at him in decent conditions. Old Trafford has no slope and the wicket is usually pretty flat so I think he'll score a few here. The Rose Bowl is a bit similar to Old Trafford albeit not as quick and Redmond scored 146 and 64 in the match with the England Lions there. The extra pace here shouldn't be too bad for him as England's opening duo go for swing more than pace so I think 58 runs is within his range.

10pts M.Vaughan to score 50 in 1st Inns 11/8 Ladbrokes

After a bit of a scratchy start at Lords in the 1st test, England's captain looked in excellent touch and scored a well deserved century so he'll arrive at Old Trafford where he has a decent record, full of confidence. He averages over 52 at this ground which includes that majestic 166 in the Ashes test here 3 years ago. Vaughan loves pace and bounce and against a hardworking but invariably pretty weak bowling attack in international terms he should well make a few more here assuming he gets in. He played all the bowlers well at Lords and I fancy Vaughan to notch at least 50 here.

3pts ew D.Vettori Top New Zealand Batsman 14/1 Coral (1st Inns Only) (1/5 1,2,3)

I backed Vettori all through the winter and he didn't let me down and I backed him at Lords last week and he returned a profit there as well. As I said last week Vettori can be classed as a genuine batsman these days. In fact since 2006 he averages almost 50 with the bat in test cricket which is unbelievable given he bats at number 8. His peers could well struggle with the pacey wicket here and if that happens Vettori will be in with a chance of top scoring. If they don't struggle he's shown before he can still outscore them and continues to merit each way support.

[Pie-chucker]

First session day 2 coming. Very windy, sunny.

NZ to kick on.

2.5 pts BUY runs first session at 88. (Spin)

big problems if Taylor goes early.

[Pie-chucker]

Funny game. Two daft run outs in the morning to get Kyle Mills in who plays with great ease.

120 first session for + 80 pts.

Second session quoted at 88-92. Problems with the over here with 10 mins between innings, Flynn coming in with a runner, and 10, Jack for NZ hopeless.

But sun still shines and wind tricky for bowlers.

New ball 1 over in. Fly off the bat! I'd say 40 in first 40 mins after lunch .

1 pt BUY second session at 92

[kevshat]

Some really daft and poor cricket today. No Anderson 1st up this morning, Vettori's run out are just two. Weird day. Great call on the session runs Pie

[Pie-chucker]

+9 on runs second session yesterday.

England are getting a hard press, quite rightly, for being bloody ordinary in all departments.

Some individual issues are starting to emerge. One of them (I imagine) is KP ego because when he sees a youngster like Taylor batting the way he did yesterday, he sees a new dollar benchmark IPL. Similarly McCullum at Lords.

I can see his agent telling KP how to bat today - Sunday - rather than Moores or Vaughan. The zeitgeist is changing. Which is interesting.

England probably have their eye on the draw already. Tuesday looks a weather washout.

I expect KP to be caught early mid-off, mid-on or c & b.

I'll be selling 1st session runs if posted around 85. An hour to go before start.