Cricket: County Championship 2008

[Samba_SamPa]

Good stuff Kev, Tranq et al, I will be keeping a close eye on this thread and posting as and when I'm having a bet.

I'm a Durham fan, and after years of our sole aim being not to be bottom, all of a sudden there's a lot of expectation - inside and outside the club. It's how we deal with that that will be key this summer.

Hopefully Harmi Senior will be ripping up the CC this season, proving a point to his doubters [albeit he deserves those doubters] in the game. If Steve is on form then that will go a long way towards compensating for no Ottis. Even aside from him though, we have a fairly decent bowling attack.

Di Venuto on his Italian passport is a great stroke of luck for us, and hopefully he stays fighting fit all summer.

[WoodyTHFC]

42 pts staked.

Div 1

Somerset 10/1 3 pts e.w Very tough and tight division to call imo and Somerset, after a brilliant season last year have enough about them to if not win the division at least go close and from an e.w perspective I think can be in the three. They were transformed last season under Langer and their batting looks very strong once again. Langer, Trescothick, Hildreth, Edwards all were over 1200 runs last year and thats not to mention the likes of Blackwell, Kieswetter, Trego, Jones who all provide batting depth. Given this batting power, it may well prove hard to beat Somerset this season and then you have to take into account the flat nature of the wickets at Taunton too. Regards bowling it is the weaker area but in the veterans Caddick and Willoughby they have two bowlers who can take wickets and the lead the attack well, the support bowlers are not as strong but that department has even been improved with Banks and Munday who is a young leg spinner of promise and has already an 8 for to his name, should feature more. Warwickshire won the championship a few years back with a team that rarely won but because of their hugely strong batting line up did not lose often and Somerset have the type of line up that could go fairly close @ 10/1.

Key 16/1 3 pts e.w top bat in div 1 Only players in the list stand for these markets which include the main names and Key who has been top run scorer before can go quite close again. Having had a poor 2006 by his standards, Key had a very good 2007 in all forms of the game and the 4 day version was no different. He was fifth (one spot outside e.w place) in this last year as he cruised past 1000 runs (1250 overall at an average of just under 57.) He could well have been in the England set up this winter on the back of that but was ignored and England suffered in truth due to the lack of substantial runs by the main batsman until the final test of winter/spring. There is the danger he could be called up by England but i would think someone like Shah may just be above him and the Eng. selectors could easily ignore him to leave their chosen line up in tact and it would be surprising if New Zealand did anything to change their minds, maybe only the better quality of South Africa latter in the summer. Anyway Key, if he stays fit and playing for Kent, should score lots of runs.

Div 2

I cant put my side Middlesex up as despite their good squad on paper we are consisitent underachivers and third place in this last year flattered us. Hope Im wrong and there is enough talent especially in the batting to do so but last year, facing weaker bowling than the past, we did not score the runs we should have on talent at least (only Smith over 1000 runs and he only performed at the end of the season, when nothing really mattered, Shah would be the exception as but for Eng he would have.) In the first innings especially we were poor, 35 batting points I think, might have been less. The bowling improved a bit on past seasons but a lot depends on if they can stay fit (Silverwood, Richardson especially) and how Kartik comes back form IPL? Still

Worcestershire 8/1 3 pts e.w Much shorter elsewhere, Worcestershire had an awful year last year in div 1, everything that could go wrong did and they were down a long time before the finish but saved themselves in the one day format when they impressively won the pro 40. They did get promotion two years ago so they have some pedigree and in this div. bowling teams out is most important imo in this div. and on paper at least, they have more than enough capability to do so. Jones if fit (huge doubt) is a big signing, Ali always seems to take wickets even if he can be expensive and Mason another one with fitness problems in the past is very useful. Magoffin and Edwards provide more wicket takers, Jones and Edwards together could be explosive. Batty provides the spin option but I do not see taking wickets a problem. Batting depth possibly is but then again Hick, down the order know but still hugely effective and arguably better in a more positive role, Solanki, Smith, Moore to name 4 are all players who can score 1000 runs and have done so in the past. Jaques is a loss but he was a loss last year really because he did little (30 average only.) They maybe on batsman short but someone could step up (M Ali?) i think they can have a good season.

Dippenaar 14/1 3 pts e.w top bat in div 2 I thought Dippenaar would come close to be leading this market, a batsman of genuine quality, in tests probably underachievd but his ODI record (42 av.) shows his class and that was achieved in an old school style way with a strike rate of 'only' 67. Has scored lots of runs in South Africa for many years, nearly 10000 in first class cricket (43 av.) and I think the majority of bowling attacks he will find to his liking.

Maddy 16/1 2 pts e.w top bat in div 2 Maddy along with Ambrose was one of the best players for Warwickshire last year in an awful year. The move from Leic. where he underachieved in the 4 day format having been a test player at one point helped him and captaincy did not stop him either. He scored nearly 800 runs at an average of over 46 and that remember in a higher division in a struggling team. The Bears should perform better this year and Maddy can have a good year.

Ali 8/1 3 pts e.w top bowler in div 2 This is Kabir Ali from worc. Ali is a sometimes frustrating bowler as whilst he can bowl wicket taking deliveries one minute he can bowl absolute please hit me stuff the next. However what he has always done even in the ODI/test he played is take wickets, he will always be quite expensive but 56 wickets in a year not many bowlers reached 50 wickets was a fair return in a struggling team last year and in a higher div. He is not really interenational class and there are many ahead of him in that regard but he is capable of taking lots of wickets this year although should have more competition to do so.

Hick to score 1000 championship runs 5/6 8 pts. Final one. Hick is a fantastic ambassedor for the game and even at his age still can dominate bowling attacks around the circuit. He keeps himself extremely fit and in his middle order role last season he had a very good year when many around him didnt, he was just short of 1000 runs but surley but for weather would have reached that landmark and in the one day game especially was sensational and one of the key reasons to the pro 40 title. Dropping down a div I think he can score 1000 runs even at no.5

[Tranquillizer]

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

Good stuff Kev, Tranq et al, I will be keeping a close eye on this thread and posting as and when I'm having a bet.

I'm a Durham fan, and after years of our sole aim being not to be bottom, all of a sudden there's a lot of expectation - inside and outside the club. It's how we deal with that that will be key this summer.

Hopefully Harmi Senior will be ripping up the CC this season, proving a point to his doubters [albeit he deserves those doubters] in the game. If Steve is on form then that will go a long way towards compensating for no Ottis. Even aside from him though, we have a fairly decent bowling attack.

Di Venuto on his Italian passport is a great stroke of luck for us, and hopefully he stays fighting fit all summer.

Diva was a legend for us and after all his loyal service his reward was getting showed the door which disgusted me. Was happy as larry to see him win a trophy. Real nice guy and top cricketer. We should have had him on a Kolpak but we treated him like shit.

[Tranquillizer]

For some reason Bob Willis is tipping in the Racing Post (although uses it as a rant about kolpak players)

Yorkshire 10/1
Warwickshire 5/1


--------------
Ed Hawkins.
1pt tresco 5/1 top div 1 runscorer.
2pts e/w owais shah 11/1 top div 2
2pts e/w ravi bopara 20/1 top div 2
2pts e/w Boeta Dippenaar

3pts e/w Yorkshire 10/1
1pt e/w Surrey 7/1

2pts e/w Leicestershire 14/1
2pts e/w Northants 12/1

[kevshat]

I've never really rated Ed Hawkins much and having read that piece I've not changed my mind. I do agree with him that Leicestershire are overpriced at 16/1 and I might end up regretting not having an ew dabble on them but I'll live I'm sure. But how the fcuk can anybody tip Northants up at 12/1 . There's nothing there . One batsman and 2 bowlers and a shit load of kolpak bits and pieces players. If Nicky Boje is batting at 3 in a 4 day match that's a side which ain't going to be anywhere near the top 3 .

I'm also missing all this Somerset talk. Either I've got them completely wrong or various others have. The BBC likes them as does the guy at Sportinglife but where are 20 wickets coming from . They ain't coming all from Caddick that's for certain. Willoughby might chip in with a few but who else is there? Steffan Jones and Alfonso Thomas (so good even Warwickshire got rid) . Not for me. I'm certain they'll be nearer the bottom than the top. Too many draws.

[Tranquillizer]

Somerset bullied poor teams on their flat wicket last season, this season they wont be intimidating teams in my opinion, I think they`ll come back down.

[Royston Vasey]

But how the fcuk can anybody tip Northants up at 12/1 . There's nothing there . HOW VERY DARE YOU!!!

Happen to think you are over-rating the not so mighty Steelbacks. Not sure about a surprise packet, I will be surprised if we finish out of the bottom three in either league or indeed qualify for either the FPT or Twenty 20 quarters. It's being so optimistic that keeps me going!!

The pre-season results went well with wins over Hampshire, Derby and Notts. However Mr Sales has been playing like a plum, apparently. Ironic when he looks like a tomato. A top six of Stephen Peters, Alex Wakely, Nicky Boje,David Sales, Rob White and Riki Wessels is unlikely to get fast bowlers twanging their hamstring on the morning of a match.

Still with the Vicar of Wigley and Niall O'Byes on display, the entertainment value will be there. However our secret weapon, is a lad called Sean Bailey. Looks and is bulit like Steve Harmison ( hopefully he doesn't get a nose bleed on joining the motorway) and could surprise a few people before the season is out. That said our season, finished with Hall and van der Wath's application being turned down by the ECB.

For the record.

I have backed Di Venuto and Key as top scorers in Div 1, Shah for Div 2.

Surrey for the FPT and Gloucestershire to win the West Section of the FPT at 6/1 (nap), which is a remarkable price for a team which includes Spearman,Marshall,Kadeer Ali, Lewis and Greenidge *cough*. A very even group with Hampshire, Somerset, Glamorgan and Worcestershire. Let's face it everyone hates going to Bristol, even Bristolians!

Good luck for a successful punting season!

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by Royston Vasey

Let's face it everyone hates going to Bristol, even Bristolians!

Surely that's except you ........................... well on Thursday's at least .

[kevshat]

Right, enough of slagging off "experts" and back to betting. 2 more outrights. I was going to do a few more, I like Prior for top keeper but I've read he's thinking of giving the gloves up. Whilst that's clearly a good idea as he can't catch a cold internationally he's not bad at this level so that's a few points we might not get so I'll leave that. Was going to back Shah and Dippenaar ew to top score in Division 2 but Shah will miss games when the 1 dayers are on and could still get a test call up while Dippenaar misses this 1st match and if he starts to fill his boots and Ashwell Prince for example starts off badly over here then Dippy may still get called into that SA squad as he's over here already.

2 more to add to those I've already given though.

2pts ew M.Di Venuto Top Division 1 Season Runscorer 7/1 Ladbrokes (1/5 1,2,3)

Ladbrokes only have a select group of players which count towards this bet. They are: Mark Ramprakash, Marcus Trescothick, Di Venuto, Robert Key, Murray Goodwin, Stuart Law, John Crawley, Jacques Rudolph and Mark Wagh.

Michael Di Venuto is a top class batsman and he's here on an Italian passport so he can't play for Australia even if they want him too. He was going great guns with the bat last season before a broken hand ended his season prematurely. Di Venuto has always scored runs over here though, even in a pisspoor Derby side he still collected a sack load of runs and now he's back to full fitness I expect him to do so again this season. He's a solid opener and I always like openers when I do long term top batsmen because they are guaranteed innings all the time and with Ladbrokes paying 1st 3 in this 9 runner field, di Venuto looks an ew bet to nothing.

2pts ew J.Lawson Top Division 2 Season Wicket-taker 7/1 Ladbrokes (1/5 1,2,3)

Ladbrokes have a select group of bowlers for this bet too so only these players count in this market: Danish Kaneria, Kabir Ali, Tom Lungley, Lawson, Jon Lewis, Johann Louw, Robert Croft, Alan Richadson and James Anyon.

Jermaine Lawson has plenty of international experience, he's played 13 tests and 13 ODI's and has 51 test wickets and 17 ODI wickets to his name. His test best was a 7/78 against Australia and he also took a test match hat trick against them too. Believe me this guy can bowl and he could well turn out to be the best signing of the summer. He's up against a pretty select choice here but the market leader, Danish Kaneria doesn't arrive for a month so he's playing catch up immediately while Richardson and Anyon, as I write are both injured so it's fair to say this is a 6 runner field in which Ladbrokes pay top 3 ew. Lawson is 26 now so he should be in his prime and he's another who looks an ew bet to nothing here with Croft, Louw and Lungley possibly flattering to deceive.

[winbet]

I'm on Di Venuto at 14/1 e/w (top 4 1/4 odds) with betdirect, with all div 1 batsmen in. Di Venuto finished in the top 4 last season despite missing 4 games through injury. Injury apart will play all season, opens and so should give a good run for your money.

I have shah 10/1 for division 2, risky though as scoring plenty of runs may well see him called up, more likely for the one dayers which will see him missing games.

Yorks are my div 1 bet, I got 22/1 last season, and laid off, though best can get is 10/1 this.

Leics have come in from the 16/1 mark and have made some good South African signings. More south africans than english in their line up for some games this season. I see them as solid e/w shouts.

[winbet]

As for the opening games. Usually get around 100% book for cricket, which is good if you shop around to get the best price.

County Championship Division One Matches

19 April 2008
	10:00		Hampshire (2.63)		Tie (0)		Sussex (1.62)	100%
	10:00		Surrey (2.2)		Tie (0)		Lancashire (1.83)	100%
	10:00		Kent (1.83)		Tie (0)		Nottinghamshire (2.25)	99%

I think Kent can see off Notts, weather permitting. Notts weakened in both batting and bowling from last season; and Broad or sidebottom won't be playing.


Division 2

19 April 2008
	10:00		Essex (1.62)		Tie (0)		Northamptonshire (2.63)	100%
	10:00		Leicestershire (2.5)		Tie (0)		Middlesex (1.62)	102%
	10:00		Gloucestershire (2.1)		Tie (0)		Derbyshire (1.84)	102%
	10:00		Warwickshire (1.8)		Tie (0)		Worcestershire (2.25)	100%

Worcs look decent to beat warwicks who have players out: Jimmy Anyon (forearm), Naqaash Tahir (shin splints) and Ian Salisbury (shoulder) are injured, while Monde Zondeki is still in South Africa.

[kevshat]

Wednesday 16 April 2008	Home	Away	BPP
Hampshire v Sussex (10:30BST)	2.70	1.61	99%	Details »
Hide « Hampshire v Sussex
Kent v Nottinghamshire (10:30BST)	1.85	2.25	98%	Details »
Hide « Kent v Nottinghamshire
Surrey v Lancashire (10:30BST)	2.20	1.83	100%	Details »

Wednesday 16 April 2008	Home	Away	BPP
Essex v Northamptonshire (10:30BST)	1.66	2.62	98%	Details »
Hide « Essex v Northamptonshire
Gloucestershire v Derbyshire (10:30BST)	2.10	1.88	101%	Details »
Hide « Gloucestershire v Derbyshire
Leicestershire v Middlesex (10:30BST)	2.50	1.68	100%	Details »
Hide « Leicestershire v Middlesex
Warwickshire v Worcestershire (10:30BST)	1.80	2.25	100%	Details »

I'm going with 4 for this week. 3 match bets and a small top bat with Stan James. As ever all my match bets are DNB so anyone following me please don't use betfair as exchanges include the draw .

10pts Kent to beat Nottinghamshire 5/6 Ladbrokes

I can't possibly see how Kent and Notts can be the same price here. They look much the stronger side. Notts were promoted from Division 2 last season but their squad this year looks much weaker than that one. Kent have brought one or two in to help them and they look solid here.

Joe Denly and Rob Key will lead a batting lineup which may well see Yasir Arafat - holder of a test match 44 - batting at number 10 which is incredible strength in depth really. They are well covered with the ball too with the likes of Saggers, McLaren, Arafat and Tredwell still there from last season. Perhaps the biggest key for Kent is the return of Amjad Khan who missed all of last season with injury. Azhar Mahmood has been brought into the side too and he'll provide good options with the bat and the ball so Kent look strong.

Notts don't quite simply. They've lost Stephen Fleming and David Hussey from last season and Stuart Broad and Ryan Sidebottom haven't been given permission from England to play. That means Darren Pattinson, signed from the minor counties, will make his debut. Adam Voges, replacement for David Hussey will also debut as will opener Matthew Wood. Chris Read now leads the side but I'm far from convinced and at home I take the twenty20 champions to open their 4 day account this week should the weather allow it.

10pts Surrey to beat Lancashire 6/5 Coral

Surrey have strengthened their squad going into this season and as I've already mentioned could take some beating, particularly if they start this season how they finished last season. Lancashire don't have the services of Murali this term and under a new captain could take a game or two to find their feet.

Usman Afzaal, Saqlain Mushtaq and Pedro Collins were all big name signings in the close season for the Brown Caps and they join the likes of Mark Butcher, Jon Batty and Matt Nicholson in the side here. Also in the side is run machine Mark Ramprakash and hot shot young all rounder Chris Jordan who could well be a star this season. Scott Newman is expected to start delivering soon. This Surrey XI have a lot of international experience and will be tough to beat here.

Lancashire have Andrew Flintoff available should they pick him. I'm sure they will but whether he's spot on remains to be seen. England haven't released Jimmy Anderson though so he misses out which means Sajid Mahmood and Glen Chapple will lead the attack after Dominic Cork was left out of the 12 man squad. Stuart Law has Brad Hodge at his disposal but other than he, Law himself and Mal Loye this is a pretty young batting lineup who could be pressured by Surrey's attack.

The weather is likely to play a part with Friday looking a bit grim in the capital but should a result occur I think Surrey will get it.

10pts Gloucestershire to beat Derbyshire 11/10 Stan James

All the talk in recent weeks has been about the side John Morris has put together at Derby. 4 players will make their debuts here but I still think Gloucester are worth backing. Gloucester have changed their coach and Jack Russell is back at Nevil Road as a "team mentor" whatever one of those is!!

If you put Gloucestershire's top 6 down on paper - Spearman, Ali, Marshall, North, Gidman, Taylor there isn't many in this division which can match that. Unfortunately it's the bowling where they are a bit light. They do have Jon Lewis though and hopefully Steve Kirby will be fit to go after getting KO'd last week. Anthony Ireland has played internationally for Zimbabwe and will need to step up to the plate should Kirby not pass a fitness test.

Derbyshire are like to have 4 debutants. Overseas player Chris Rogers, Dominic Telo, Nayan Doshi and new captain Rikki Clarke will all make their 1st class debuts for Derby who will be without Kevin Dean. Graham Wagg will still be a key player with the ball and lower down the order but their batting still looks a bit light, especially against Gloucester's top order. Tom Lungley is ever improving and Ian Hunter could fill Dean's place.

Bristol is a tough place to win at and although the weather isn't great I feel if a winner does emerge it will be Gloucestershire.

2pts O.Shah to top score in Leicestershire vs Middlesex match 7/2 Stan James (1st Inns Only)

Stan James have introduced their sixshooter to county cricket and the 6 players they include in this match are Andrew Strauss, Owais Shah and Ed Joyce from Middlesex and HD Ackerman, Boeta Dippenaar and Paul Nixon from Leicestershire. We can immediately rule out Dippenaar as he's still in South Africa playing for his state side in the twenty20 out there.

That leaves us with 5 and while Ackerman and Nixon will know the track I'm going for Owais Shah. He's a player who plays well on low, slow wickets as his test and ODI performances in India and Sri Lanka testify. Leicester are missing two of their pace attack in Kruger and Du Preez who are still away with their state side back in South Africa so Leicester will have a couple of young bowlers playing. Andrew Strauss doesn't tend to play his best cricket on a typical Grace Rd pitch so we'll pass him over and with Shah hitting form last week for the MCC I'll take him to outscore this sixshooter.

[kevshat]

Good luck all. for a profitable week to begin with.

[winbet]

They all look good shouts Kev. I was considering Surrey, though left it as just punted on them for the title. Gloucs have a great top 6, though wil find it difficult to bowl derbys out twice.


Pattinson has played around 10 games for the state side Melbourne in Oz, in the last two seasons. Backing against my own team myself though.

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by winbet

They all look good shouts Kev. I was considering Surrey, though left it as just punted on them for the title. Gloucs have a great top 6, though wil find it difficult to bowl derbys out twice.


Pattinson has played around 10 games for the state side Melbourne in Oz, in the last two seasons. Backing against my own team myself though.

Cheers mate. I had Surrey and Lancs nearer 5/6 both of them but I'm sure Flintoff's inclusion has something to do with it but with Surrey so big I think they are worth backing although as I say rain may win.

Kent look a bit stronger all round don't they? Think our two sides will be fighting to stay up rather than win it mate .

[Tranquillizer]

I`d want to wait for news of whether Kirby plays if I was betting Gloucs, their bowling is awful with him, without him how can Gloucs win? They cant bowl Derbyshire out twice IMO