Cricket: Australia vs Sri Lanka Test Series

[kevshat]

A 2 match test series between Australia and Sri Lanka begins at the Gabba on Wednesday night and again it's live on Sky Sports. I'm starting this thread now because I'm likely to be busy tomorrow night and Luton are at home on Tuesday so time could be short this week.

Best odds/All odds
Australia	1.25	1.27	1.16	1.22	1.22	1.25	1.25	1.2	1.16	1.28	1.28
Draw	5.5	6.1	6	6	5.5	5	5.5	5.5	6.5	6.4	6.2
Sri Lanka	9	10.5	11	9	11	10	9	11	11	11.5	12

November 2007

Thu 8 - Mon 12 10:00 local, 00:00 GMT	1st Test - Australia v Sri Lanka Brisbane Cricket Ground, Woolloongabba, Brisbane
Fri 16 - Tue 20 10:30 local, 23:30 GMT	2nd Test - Australia v Sri Lanka Bellerive Oval, Hobart

I'll post up some bets for the series later in the week.

[Ashtee]

Good deal of rain in Brisbane and maybe some more next three days. Brisbane rain can set in, so perhaps the draw isn't totally out of the picture.

[kevshat]

Ok, a couple of outright bets for the series before we start.

4pts Australia to win series 1-0 9/4 Stan James

Sri Lanka face a real tough ask in this series. They've never won a test match on Australian soil in their 8 attempts and equally since 1989 Australia have played 2 tests at the Gabba and Hobart where this series will be played, and haven't lost any of them. So Sri Lanka will have their work cut out to win a test here. That said, Australia may not have it all their own way in their 1st series since Warne, McGrath and Langer retired. Sri Lanka have brought a decent enough squad out to Australia and they should be capable of competing. There's a fair bit of rain around Brisbane too which enhances a draw in the 1st test and so rather than take the best priced Evs for Australia to win 2-0, I'll risk a draw and take the 9/4 on the 1-0.

4pts S.Clark Top Australia Series Bowler 5/2 Stan James

Stuart Clark has 47 test wickets at less than 18 to his name in his short test career. 26 of those wickets came in last years Ashes where he bowled beautifully and showed that perhaps McGrath's boots won't be so tough to fill. He's an immaculate bowler, bowling line and length. He isn't short of pace either and on a quick deck will go beyond 90mph. Brett Lee apart, this Australian seam attack is pretty young and experience will be vital. Clark may well get the new ball and I expect him to be a constant threat and at 5/2, I'm happy to take him for the top Aussie wicket taker.

[Matt]

There's a fair bit of rain around Brisbane too which enhances a draw in the 1st test and so rather than take the best priced Evs for Australia to win 2-0, I'll risk a draw and take the 9/4 on the 1-0.

I completely agree, dont know why but with this new young aussie attack I can see Sri Lanka managing to ground out a draw in one of these tests, 9/4 looks a great price on the 1-0.

[kevshat]

Best odds/All odds Australia 1.4 1.4 1.36 1.44 1.45 1.36 1.4 1.44 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.44 1.4 1.44 1.4 1.4 1.51 1.5 1.48 Draw 3.8 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.75 3.8 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.75 3.75 4 4.1 3.8 Sri Lanka 8 8 9 9.5 9.5 9 8 9 9 7.5 9 7 8 8 7 7.5 10 10 10

Ok 1st test at the Gabba. As ever I'm not playing the match itself to begin with, especially with inclement weather around but I'm not sure I'd want to be piling on Australia at a best priced 4/9. In their favour though, Kumar Sangakkara could well be a decisive loss. I'll attack the side markets though.

10pts Sri Lanka +111.5 runs 1st Inns Lead 10/11 Sportingbet

This is a really really solid Australian batting lineup but it's perfectly possible that they could succumb to Murali and whenever you've got someone as dangerous as Murali in your side you will always be in the game. Sri Lanka themselves aren't exactly short in the batting department with Jayasuriya and Jayawardene still among the best batsmen in the world. Australia do have a young bowling attack out here predominantly and that could keep Sri Lanka in it in the 1st innings. Another thing on Sri Lanka's side is they bat all the way down even if it's only Murali swinging from the hip. Asking a side to be 112 runs ahead of a team as strong as Sri Lanka can be is a big ask and one I feel Australia won't be capable of.
10pts S.Jayasuriya's Performance Pts 80&Over 5/6 Bet365

Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket.

Sanath Jayasuriya should be right at home at the Gabba. He loves pace and bounce and this pitch will have both characteristics. Jayasuriya's test average is 40.42 so we basically need only 2 "average" innings from the veteran left hander and we will get our target. However, Jayasuriya could well be called upon to bowl his left arm spin at some point be it to give Murali a rest or late on when the pitch could turn and even one wicket would give us a quarter of his target. Jayasuriya hit a 150 in the warm up game with the Chairman's XI so he's in form. He'll always be in the game and if he starts well in his innings he could have this covered in no time so I'll take the overs here.

10pts M.Hayden 61 runs and over (1st Inns Only) 11/8 Blue Square

Matthew Hayden averages 70.83 from his 7 matches at the Gabba which is an incredible average. That includes 4 centuries and a half century from his 12 innings. He didn't really get going against England here last year but since that match he's been totally dominant in all forms of the game and if Sri Lanka don't get him early they may not get him at all. The pitch should be perfect for him again and I expect Hayden to get into his stride pretty quickly and go on and score at least 61 at the 1st time of asking.

10pts R.Ponting 61 runs and over (1st Inns Only) 5/4 Blue Square

If Matthew Hayden's average here was good, Ponting's is even better. He averages 76 here from 11 test matches. He has 6 half centuries and 4 centuries to his name from his 18 innings so his innings:half century/century ratio is very impressive. In his last 4 tests here his scores read 54, 50, 51, 149, 104*, 196 and 60* so the Gabba is clearly a place he loves to bat at. The pitch is supposed to have lots of pace in it which is right up Ponting's street and going by his recent record here he must be backed to go beyond 60 1st time round this time.

1pt ew C.Vaas Top Sri Lanka Batsman 33/1 Boylesports (1st Inns Only) (1/4 1,2,3)

Chaminda Vaas is no mug with the bat. In fact he's already hit an 84 on the tour against Queensland last week so he's got some previous with the bat here. He averages just under 24 with the bat in test cricket with 11 half centuries and a century to his name. He averages just over 20 against Australia and even though he'll come in at number 8 here he could well be good enough to sneak a place. But if Sri Lanka's top order crumble at the hands of Lee and Clark then Vaas could capitalise with a top score for his side. At over 8/1 for him to come in the top 3 though, Vaas offers good ew value and is worthy of a small stake.

2pts M.Hayden Man of the Match 10/1 Bet365

I've already mentioned Hayden's record here at the Gabba which is very good and if he has a decent game with the bat he'll be a runner for the man of the match award. He'll also snap up a few catches at slip as is normal for him which should give him further man of the match potential. Hayden is probably the most destructive batsman in the game at the minute and if he can dominate with the bat here 10/1 will look a silly price come the end of the match.

[swoops]

I'm not betting much at the moment so am talking from a cricket view point rather than a punters in effect, but I think looking at laying Australia for the series is the way to go tbh.
As has been said theres rain around in this 1st test meaning the draw has been cut from 11/2 I'm told, but I think the bookies are not taking into account enough the effect of the retirements. The Aussies batting is not in doubt in my mind, but the bowling certainly is. I like Stu Clark as well but the fact is hes being talked about as though hes played 80 tests where in effect hes only played 9 !! MacGill takes wickets & has a very good record when Warne is at the other end, & as a leggie he'll get wickets but he aint cheap on the old economy rate. Johnson is tipped to play but I believe its his debut, & Lees record in the last 6 tests without MacGrath playing is 24 @ 45 !!
SLs batting has to stand up mind, but they havent got a bad attack either. Vaas has been here before, Murali is world class although the rains a worry & Malinga & the others are coming on well.

No cakewalk IMO

[kevshat]

This test match has been an unlucky but ultimately awful test match for me so far but I'm going to try and save it with a speculative bet for day 5.

6pts 1st Test Draw 8/1 Totesport

This price is a bit big. Admittedly Sri Lanka ae really struggling, still 122 behind with only 5 wickets left in their follow on but that doesn't mean to say they can't save this match. They've got 2 batsmen at the crease who can both keep their end safe and score runs in the process and they've a couple of all rounders to come too. So there's a bit of batting to come and there's also a bit of imclement weather around so even though there's 98 overs scheduled in the day's play, there could only be 60 odd so if Sri Lanka can knuckle down and dig in in the 1st session on a pitch which is still doing little for the quicks then they can escape with a draw. Stuart Macgill could well be the main man for Australia but with him bowling, should come runs and once Sri Lanka go past Australia every run will count double as normal. Assuming the rain/dark clouds come and the day is curtailed then Sri Lanka have every chance of saving the test. They can't win it so it's a 2 horse race and at 8/1 I'll go for the SL batsmen and weather to frustrate the Aussies.

[Pie-chucker]

Aussie juggernaut rolls on. Test on TV here starting 8.00am so saw some chunks of it.

With Jaques (usually biffs it but circumspect 100 here) and Hayden getting on with it, followed by the prolific Punter then the solid engine room of Hussey and Clarke then Symonds and Gillie walking in whirling arms these guys are going to put up 400 in a full day on a decent track.

They go out from first session to take the draw out of the equation, and have the reconstituted firepower to do it.

Brett Lee was all smiles, confidence, wicket expectations. And pace. Johnson was a good left-arm variant and has booked in on this performance. Clark accurate. The Giller gives it a real rip as usual.
This is one hell of a balanced, positive team.

Sangakkara back for Hobart and surely they'll play Malinga. But Lankans looked dazzled in the headlights, and with continuing camp/selector squabbles don't have a prayer against this lot.

But, it's a funny game.

Sorry to add comments post-game! As with Swoops, this is more a cricket than betting post.

[kevshat]

Hindsight's a great thing. Absolutely shocking test for me there. -50 for the game. Hopefully Hobart will be better for me. That test begins on Friday.

[Pie-chucker]

Kev, no intent to 'after-event'.

My bets in-running were up *elsewhere* based on conditions, toss and the daft Hussein-type Gabba insertion.

I posted only to say I watched the game in parts ball-by-ball in a reasonable time zone and to say the Aussies are the real deal. Seamless transformation into the continuing Test cricket bullies.

G'luck Hobart.

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

Kev, no intent to 'after-event'.

My bets in-running were up *elsewhere* based on conditions, toss and the daft Hussein-type Gabba insertion.

I posted only to say I watched the game in parts ball-by-ball in a reasonable time zone and to say the Aussies are the real deal. Seamless transformation into the continuing Test cricket bullies.

G'luck Hobart.

Wasn't getting at you mate, was a dig at me really. Thought I was the only one in here hence I didn't quote what I was referring to , I actually started my post before you posted but then the NFL got really interesting and I left it and came back to it after you'd posted.

I was kind of in the Swoops camp in that I thought Australia might struggle a bit more now but they proved me completely wrong although the SL team selection baffled me a bit. Hopefully Hobart can be good

[Pie-chucker]

A few showers in hobart Saturday, but otherwise looks fine. This is a kinda interesting market bluesq. What happens first? A wicket falls 1/4	1/4	BET
An individual batsman scores 50 runs 6/1	6/1	BET
A 100 run partnership 12/1	12/1	BET
A six is hit 14/1	14/1	BET
27 overs are bowled 14/1	14/1	BET
Lunch (1st Session ends) 16-1

Both Atta and Jaya hit a six in the second innings in Brisbane, and Jaques and Hayden will hit bad balls.

Centrebet have stand-out value on Hussey 1st innings and 1.42 for the Aus win looks good. So:

A six is hit @ 14-1 at 4pts
Aus win @ 1.42 at 40pts
Hussey top score Aus 1st innings @ 5-1 at 8pts

[kevshat]

Got my nights mixed up so late sticking these bets up. 2nd test begins in Hobart at 11.30pm our time.

Best odds/All odds Australia 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.3 1.4 1.43 1.36 1.3 1.36 1.47 1.4 1.36 1.33 1.4 1.33 1.4 1.36 1.3 1.46 1.47 1.45 Draw 4 3.75 4 3.75 4 4