British & Irish Lions Tour - South Africa 2009

[Wumpking]

Match 1 - Royal XV v Lions (30 May 2009 -14:00 BST, 15:00 local time - Royal Bafokeng, Rustenburg)

The B&I Lions tour kicks off this Saturday with a match against a Royal Highveld XV team comprising of mainly players from the Griquas team that won the Vodacom Cup (considered to be the 3rd tier of rugby in South Africa behind S14 and the Currie Cup). The B&I Lions have named a strong side / bench and are huge favourites to win this opening game.

Current best odds:

Royal XV - 21.0
B&I Lions - 1.04
Draw - 101.0

On the handicaps, the B&I Lions can be backed at 1.90 with a -30 points start.

I fancy that the game will be relatively close during the first half but then the strength of the Lions (partic the bench) will enable them to pull away during the latter stages of the game. Bet for me therefore is:

5pts on B&I Lions (-30) @ 1.90 with Stan James

[kevshat]

Nice work Wumpy . Very few sporting events are bigger than a Lions tour. This thread is deffo getting stickied mate. Good luck with this bet, and all those which will come on the tour mate

[TheRat]

Can't wait for the tour
Good luck with your bets

[Wumpking]

Originally Posted by kevshat

Nice work Wumpy . Very few sporting events are bigger than a Lions tour. This thread is deffo getting stickied mate. Good luck with this bet, and all those which will come on the tour mate

Can't wait for the tour
Good luck with your bets

Cheers guys. I've been looking forward to this tour for ages. The B&I Lions have got a lot to overcome (new side coming together, relatively small squad, injuries, playing at altitude, several tough matches against S14 opposition) but I'm optimistic they'll do well.

[bartonbank]

Well, having watched the game, twice, I am glad I didn't get involved, betting wise, even if I was kicking the imaginary cat. A disjointed performance saved by the NH's best full back, Lee Byrne. A back three that didn't function at the break down and, in Earls, a realisation that Shanklin's injury and absence could hurt the Lions as he is Test back up. Blair showed why he had a poor 6N but had no help from Wallace, who may be a test flanker but is not a No 8.

Perhaps the most important thing to take out of this, though, is that any punter must know the identity of the ref. The Saffer today was embarrassing. The Royals front row regularly stood upright (penalty but never given), the scrum wheeled 180 (change of put in, never happened) and flankers leaving the scrum before the scrum had ended (penalty, never given).

There should or could have been 3 yellow cards for the Royal scrum but there was barely a penalty. This is not sour grapes, as the team raised their game, but FFS the official has to apply the laws!

[TheRat]

I don't don't think it's too much cause for concern, as long as we slowly get better in the warm up matches
Bound to be a bit more disjoined to start with

[Wumpking]

Not a great start for the Lions or for my bets! Too many knock ons and turnovers, lacklustre defence at times and some poor tactical decision making.

Match 2 - Golden Lions v Lions (3 June 2009 -18:10 BST, 19:10 local time - Ellis Park, Johannesburg)

The 2nd match of B&I Lions tour kicks off tomorrow with a game against Super 14 opposition. The Golden Lions finished 12th in the S14 this season winning 4 and losing 9 (with 3 from 7 wins at home). They have a new manager following the previous coach leaving under controversial circumstances and are missing their key player as well as a number of first choice forwards. There have also been rumours of a players strike for this game.

The B&I Lions have named a strong side containing many likely test starters. The scrum should be dominant. There are a number of forwards who can carry the ball well. Jenkins and Wyn Jones are very aggressive tacklers with extremely high work rates. Phillips and Jones will be a solid halfback pairing used to each others game play. Roberts and O'Driscoll will be potent in the centre whilst Monye is lightening quick.

The B&I Lions are again heavy favourites to win this game.

Current best odds:

Golden Lions - 6.0
B&I Lions - 1.22
Draw - 34.0

On the handicaps, the B&I Lions can be backed at 1.90 with a -13 points start.

Although this is a step up in class, I do think the B&I Lions will this comfortably. Bet for me therefore is:

5pts on B&I Lions (-13) @ 1.90 with Blue Square

S14 matches involving the Golden Lions have been high scoring, averaging 53 points this season. Providing the team gels together, the B&I Lions have the potential to put a lot of points on the board here from both the boot of Jones and the try scoring ability of the backs. As such, I am also going to have a small punt on the spreads for this match and:

0.5pts Buy of B&I Lions points @ 31.5 with extrabet.com
0.5pts Buy of B&I Lions shirts @ 38 with extrabet.com

[SteveO]

-13 bet up comfortably already Wumpking. I went out on my bike and forgot all about this match did fancy a bit at -13 but there'll be plenty more matches.

WP Wumpking.

[kevshat]

Good work tonight Wumpy, hope you made a few quid on those spreads as well .

[Wumpking]

WP Wumpking

Good work tonight Wumpy, hope you made a few quid on those spreads as well

Cheers guys. Tonight has been one of my best outcomes ever on a single rugby match. The make up on the B&I Lions points was 74 whilst the B&I Lions shirts was a staggering 132 (a total greatly helped by the 2 late tries by Hook wearing 21 and Ferris wearing 18 - I was certainly cheering loudly as these went in to say the least!).

I'm using stakes of £10 a point so netted a profit of £45 on the fixed odds handicap bet, £212.50 on the points spread and £470 on the shirts spread. Overall for the tour so far (albeit only 2 games played), I'm showing a profit of £677.50 and a yield of 151.4%.

Well happy

[Wumpking]

Match 3 - Free State Cheetahs v Lions (6 June 2009 -14:00 BST, 15:00 local time - Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein)

The 3rd match of the tour sees the Lions play S14 opposition again. The Cheetahs finished bottom of the S14 winning only 2 games from 13 matches (with 2 wins from 6 at home). The Cheetahs side is settled with only their usual captain missing due to being selected for the Springboks squad.

Although this does not look on paper as strong as the Lions side that played on Wednesday, the Lions have named a powerful pack and a set of backs who have the potential to be very dangerous.

Again the B&I Lions are heavy favourites for this match:

Current best odds:

Free State Cheetahs - 7.0
B&I Lions - 1.16
Draw - 34.0

On the handicaps, the B&I Lions can be backed at 1.90 with a -14 points start.

Although a tougher game, I do think this will be another win for the B&I Lions so bet for me is:

5pts on B&I Lions (-14) @ 1.90 with Skybet

[Drogba's Bitch]

Match 4 - British & Irish Lions v Sharks Wed 10/6/09

This is the strongest team on tour so far and i don't think it will be far off the test team. Like others i am quite surprised that geechan has picked this side on the mid week game. Thought it would be Sat that we got our first look at the near test side.

Shane Williams is getting another chance to get his test shirt, this time outside O'Driscoll and Jamie Roberts, surely the test centres. Imo if he dont have a pretty good game then that will be it for him, at least for the 1st test.

Lee Byrne is probably holding the 15 jersey and it is his to lose.

Fly half is still up for grabs and i think all 3 still have a chance. Hook had a good game on Sat and offers us something different. Jones and O'Gara are quite simular in there game but for me i would give Jones the nod.

At scrum half Phillips gets another outing. I think we need his muscle in the test side, like having a 9th forward. A good game could confirm it for him. Dont think Blair stands a chance of getting the test jersey, to be honest i was quite surprised he got the call ahead of Peel. Ellis could be in with a shout and has played pretty well so far but really feel we will need Phillips in there.

The forwards look pretty set aswell. In the front row Jones would be the only one i wouldn't have in. Not really done much wrong but would probably have Vickery infront of him.

The second row looks good to me. O'Connell and Jones i think will be our test second row combination. As captain O'Connell is gonna be a definate but the second place still could be up for taking with it likely being between Jones and Hinds to be paired with him.

The back row is pretty open imo. But this would be my choice. Ferris would have been in and was looking very good till the sad news today. Ryan Jones has got the call up but will definately struggle to get acclimatised in time for the 1st test. Croft has had a couple of good games so far and another tomorrow could cement him in. Not a big fan of Worsley but i think Williams will push them all the way.

British & Irish Lions Team: L Byrne (Ospreys & Wales); S Williams (Ospreys & Wales), B O'Driscoll (Leinster & Ireland), J Roberts (Cardiff Blues & Wales), L Fitzgerald (Leinster & Ireland); R O'Gara (Munster & Ireland), M Phillips (Ospreys & Wales); G Jenkins (Cardiff Blues & Wales), L Mears (Bath & England), A Jones (Ospreys & Wales), A-W Jones (Ospreys & Wales), P O'Connell (Munster & Ireland) (Captain), T Croft (Leicester & England), D Wallace (Munster & Ireland), J Heaslip (Leinster & Ireland).

Replacements: M Rees (Scarlets & Wales), P Vickery (Wasps & England), S Shaw (Wasps & England), J Worsley (Wasps & England), M Blair (Edinburgh & Scotland), R Flutey (Wasps & England), L Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues & Wales)


Sharks: S Terblanche; C Jordaan, A Strauss, R Swanepoel, L Vulindlu; M Dumond, R Kockott; D Carstens, S Badenhorst, J du Plessis, S Sykes, J Muller (capt), J Botes, J Deysel, K Daniel.

Replacements: C Burden, P Cilliers, A van den Berg, M Rhodes, C McLeod, G Cronje, L Mvovo.

The sharks are normally a very strong side but have been hit by 8 springbok call ups. John Smit, Bismarck du Plessis, Ryan Kankowski, Adi Jacobs, Odwa Ndungane, Ruan Pienaar, JP Pietersen and Frans Steyn are all missing and this could really effect them. However they still have some quality players with a few emerging springboks in the side.

The handicap is set around the -16 mark and with the strength of this lions team i will be happy to be on it.

Come on the Lions!!!

[Wumpking]

After storming to a 20 - 0 lead in the first quarter, the Lions (& the ref!!!)allowed the Cheetahs back into the match and disappointingly only narrowly hung on for the win.

Match 4 - Natal Sharks v Lions (10 June 2009 -18:10 BST, 19:10 local time - ABSA Park, Durban)

S14 mid table opposition face the Lions in their next match in Durban tomorrow. The Sharks won 8 from 13 matches (4 from 7 at home) during the S14 and whilst aren't fielding a full strength side, they have a strong looking set of forwards and decent backs.


The Lions pack looks pretty much test strength. In the backs, they field the impressive centre pairing of O'Dirscoll & Roberts. Phillips looks solid at scrum half, although whether he and O'Gara form a decent partnership will be interesting to see.

Predictably, the Lions are heavy favourites again:

Current best odds:

Natal Sharks - 8.0
B&I Lions - 1.14
Draw - 50.0

On the handicaps, the B&I Lions can be backed at 1.90 with a -16 points start.

Another step up in class for the Lions but again this will be another win for the B&I Lions. The pack should dominate and backs look strong enough to capitalise. Bet for me is:

5pts on B&I Lions (-16) @ 1.90 with Skybet

[Wumpking]

Hey Drogba

Nice write up (you posted whilst I was typing mine!). Glad we both have similar conclusions. GL with your bets

W

[Drogba's Bitch]

Originally Posted by Wumpking

Hey Drogba

Nice write up (you posted whilst I was typing mine!). Glad we both have similar conclusions. GL with your bets

W

Lol.

Cheers mate, took me a while to write and thought someone might beat me to it but looks like i got in there first.

Love watchin the lions wish i was out there!!! Gl to mate

[Pie-chucker]

Good luck with Lions @ 15 pts.

This Lions team v Sharks looks like 11 or so of the test starters but I think the Geech plan here will be to look for small increments in various areas and not reveal any full bag of tricks. He will now be very injury conscious. All bench coming on, of course.

I think they'll get the job done, and win by 12.

I'm an 'under' man on this.

There could be a bit of 'cotton wool' here. Then thunder on Saturday with a 'weaker' XV to see who can really step-up.

The man to keep an eye on is Flutey in the second half. I'm not convinced the centre pairing that start is locked in yet.

[Pie-chucker]

British & Irish Lions Subs Try Minutes
A prediction on the total number of try scoring minutes by British & Irish Lions substitutes.
Note: In the case of a penalty try the player awarded the try counts.

This is Sporting Index. And this is nonsense, surely.

[Drogba's Bitch]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

The man to keep an eye on is Flutey in the second half. I'm not convinced the centre pairing that start is locked in yet.

Have to disagree with you there mate, for me apart from Byrne and O'Connell this is the one definate on tour. O'Driscoll is a banker and imo Jamie Roberts has probably been one of the stand out players of the tour. Dont get me wrong i am a BIG fan of Flutey, and before the tour thought he would make it. But so far Roberts has been superb and if i was him i would be mighty pissed off if Flutey got the nod

A good win today but to be honest it should have been alot better. Very disappointed in our ball retention. Way to many turn overs in key areas, we should have scored at least a couple more times. Lack of support to the ball carrier allowed the opposition in. Time and time agin we got stripped in their 22. If we dont get this sorted by the test we could get a hammering! Before the tour started i thought we really could do this, but the more i see im starting to think a white wash is on the cards. I really hope im wrong but as you all know you need to bet with your head, not your heart!!!! If we play like we did today we will score some points but the boks will score alot more and probably dominant the game. You can get -8 on the boks for the first test and i will take that now incase it goes out anymore. As i said this is one bet i would love to lose especially if we win but the way things are im a little doubtful.

[Pie-chucker]

Well done with Lions handicap, lads.

It's a bit of a worry. 11 tests starters (one in the front row, fly-half and two wingers to miss out) against a depleted Sharks and all that first half huffing and puffing. Boks must be quietly confident.

These 11 will just get run-on roles Saturday & Tuesday, I suppose.

[kevshat]

Good work last night guys