Australian Rules Football - AFL Pre Season Discussion

[koi_saisei]

I can see where you're coming from Ash, you're basically talking about value. As you said, you think Ottens is a 110.00 chance but you're getting 500.00 so you take it. I think if you want to think in those terms with what beejay is saying (and I'm hesitant to speak for him) but Beejay is so openly against Ottens winning that his rating of Ottens as at least a 1000.00+ and hence represents no value at all.

Every time we look at a bet, we give our own values and probabilities of a win. However, theres still a significant difference in purely betting on value which you do. My own way of punting is that I will simply choose who I think will win. I may assign a value to Ottens of 50.0 but I still wont take the 500.00 becuase I have 30players in my mind that I think will beat him. While I would be getting so much more money than what I'd expect, I wouldn't risk it when in my mind he is 'still' a very low chance of winning.

I havn't really added anything to this I guess. I suppose what I'm saying is we should try to be a bit more understanding of other peoples reasons for their bets, but also we need to make clear about our reasons... and it's up to the readers to decide whether they like your system, and hence follow it, or not.

Edit: I just read over that... and I've confused myself... we'd probably all be best ignoring it

[Ashtee]

Yeah good points koi. Having the same opinion isn't important but having the language understood is. That's what I mean by staying out of here a bit this season - to keep the head screwed on.

I've heard "Top-50" Brownlow chances mentioned in recent posts, so seeing as I've actually framed my top 640 then I may as well post my top 50 from that. Some of the bookie prices might not be up to date though. Kerr I actually backed earlier but I feel he's more of a querry now given recent events.

	99%	126%
Brownlow 2007
Competitor	My Price	Best of Bookies
Judd, Chris	11.5	10.0	Norm Short
Goodes, Adam	14	11.0	Sportingbet
Pavlich, Matthew	19	23.0	Norm Short
Brown, Jonathan	25	19.0	Sportingbet
Kerr, Danial	28	19.0	Betfair
McLeod, Andrew	40	41.0	SportsBet
Hodge, Luke	41	35.0	TAB
Dal Santo, Nick	45	34.0	Centrebet
Johnson, Brad	53	55.0	Norm Short
West, Scott	56	21.0	Sportingbet
Ball, Luke	57	67.0	Sportingbet
Sandilands, Aaron	60	81.0	SportsBet
Cox, Dean	70	23.0	TAB
Stevens, Nick	70	101	TAB
Ling, Cameron	72	151.0	Acumen
McLean, Brock	74	67.0	Acumen
Riewoldt, Nick	75	29.0	IAS
Hall, Barry	75	71.0	IAS
Bruce, Cameron	80	67.0	Acumen
Wells, Daniel	87	150.0	Betfair
Kirk, Brett	87	151.0	IAS
Mitchell, Sam	87	31.0	Sportingbet
Black, Simon	89	65	Norm Short
Lade, Brendon	90	140.0	Betfair
Ablett, Gary	97	126.0	Sportingbet
Cornes, Chad	100	126.0	TAB
Goodwin, Simon	100	26.0	Centrebet
Burgoyne, Shaun	100	45.0	Norm Short
Edwards, Tyson	110	70.0	Norm Short
Ottens, Brad	110	501	SportsBet
Burton, Brett	110	90	Norm Short
Johnstone, Travis	115	201.0	SportsBet
Franklin, Lance	122	101	Sportingbet
Raines, Andrew	125	501.0	Sportingbet
Pearce, Danyle	125	70.0	Norm Short
Griffen, Ryan	125	201	TAB
Goddard, Brendan	135	140.0	Norm Short
Rivers, Jared	135	801.0	Sportingbet
Embley, Andrew	150	201.0	Acumen
Cornes, Kane	150	251	Centrebet
Murphy, Mark	160	251	Sportingbet
Akermanis, Jason	163	101	TAB
Bowden, Joel	168	126	Acumen
Bartel, Jimmy	168	301	TAB
Davey, Aaron	170	301.0	SportsBet
Fevola, Brendan	172	151	TAB
Shaw, Heath	175	501.0	Centrebet
Swan, Dane	175	251	Centrebet
Hasleby, Paul	185	101.0	Hurley
Mooney, Cameron	190	501	Centrebet

[Beejayville]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

I'm not clear exactly what your proposing with those bets BJ? I read it like this:

Chapman, Corey, Ablett v Ottens
(Ottens must win the group).
If I want a hundred, then:
$0.00 to $2200.00 is that bet??

At the same time you want;
Chapman v Ottens $300.00 to $0.00 ?
Corey v Ottens $300.00 to $0.00 ?
Ablett v Ottens $300.00 to $0.00 ?

Ash.

I propose we forget about it if your footy judgement is on such a high plane Ash

I would hate to think something I posted last night would stop reduce your posting in here beacuse you are offering a different view...I would welcome your thoughts as they are different to the main stream and that is a great thing...So rather than post less, post more often and i promise not to post in a ridiculing manner to you again...I quite liked your earlier post and the way you approach your football betting.

So Apologies if i sounded antagonistic or anything Ash...It was Friday night drinking at Buninyong Golf Club actually playing Poker

I was actually having the same debate about Ottens at the bar last night...I tend to think like Oscar posted b4 regards Ottens and the value...Will post my reasoning an a little while.

[Beejayville]

Re read your earlier post with interest Ash and if you thought Richmond would win wooden spoon at $5 and were getting $8 then that is a great bet.

$5.00 - 4/1 - 20.0 %
$8.00 - 7/1 - 12.5 %
You are almost getting a double Overlay for the team you think will win.

My thoughts on the Brownlow are that history seems to always repeat, even more so now with so many stats available...Certain players poll well, and certain players don't...Guess the point I was trying to make with Ottens is that he is not traditionally a big votegetter...I would rate Paul Chapman a better chance to get more votes than Ottens playing as a Geelong forward...And when was the last time a forward won a Brownlow? Tony Lockett in 1987? Ottens is no Lockett...As far as forwards go, Matthew Pavlich and Jon Brown are votegetters and will do it again this year because they are great players.

Just for Interest, these are the overlays you have which represent value to me, although I very much doubt any of them will get close, maybe Kornes would be the best chance, but he had a great season last year and wasn't even in Top 10.

Johnstone, Travis 115 201.0 SportsBet
Raines, Andrew 125 501.0 Sportingbet
Griffen, Ryan 125 201 TAB
Embley, Andrew 150 201.0 Acumen
Cornes, Kane 150 251 Centrebet
Murphy, Mark 160 251 Sportingbet
Bartel, Jimmy 168 301 TAB
Shaw, Heath 175 501.0 Centrebet
Swan, Dane 175 251 Centrebet


The good value bets from your list under $100 is Sandilands, Ling, Wells, Kirk in my opinion.

I understand the concept of value betting when the odds are in your favour, that's basically how I bet...Getting $500 from the Bookies for something I rated around $110 is vaue in a monetary sense, but in a percentage sense it is not in my mind as far as Brownlow Medal betting is concerned...Outside of the Brownlow I would say yeh take it...But you have Ottens at over $100 to win, and even at this early stage you have Judd at $11 which indicates how much of a chance you give Judd.

If you are getting $500 about Ottens who you have rated at $110 then good luck with your bet Ash as it represents value to you...For me he is a player who you rated over 100 to 1 and in my mind he clearly cannot win the Brownlow the way he plays the game, so there is no price the Bookies could give me that would represent value to me.

Can I ask you If you were to frame a market on who would get more Brownlow votes out of Judd or Ottens this season, what odds would you have?

Oddly enough, I am considering having a small bet on ottens now, as things like this sometimes have a way of biting us on the bum again

[Beejayville]

One more thing Ash...

I am only talking about Ottens and the Brownlow too as far as anything you said, as I believe he is very overrated and has rarely had a great year, and he often gets injured and misses games, which is another reason why I don't rate him for the Brownlow.

I am very much looking forward to your thoughts on AFL games in general, especially if you think outside the box when it comes to finding the likely winner.

Didn't mean to get you on the back foot and have you feel the need to explain your reasoning for the Ottens bet...Sounds like you have a very sound principle/method in place when it comes to the AFL, and thats a good thing.

Best of luck for the AFL season and hope we can all make some $$$

[Ashtee]

I wasn't so much offended BJ, because I could tell you were just doing some freefall off a decent night on the refreshments. Thought it's worth explaining my language though because, as I mentioned above, it can get very pointless being here otherwise.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by Beejayville

Re read your earlier post with interest Ash and if you thought Richmond would win wooden spoon at $5 and were getting $8 then that is a great bet.

$5.00 - 4/1 - 20.0 %
$8.00 - 7/1 - 12.5 %
You are almost getting a double Overlay for the team you think will win.

To reiterate what I was trying to explain, I didn't think Richmond would win the wooden spoon. My tip at that point was for Hawthorn almost surely to win it. That won't stop me from making the wise investment on Richmond though, regardless of win or lose.

12	Carlton	18	7	11	0	1501	1898	79.08	28
13	Adelaide	18	6	12	0	1575	1690	93.20	24
14	W Bulldogs	18	4	14	0	1555	1973	78.81	16
15	Richmond	18	4	14	0	1394	1976	70.55	16
16	Hawthorn	18	2	16	0	1338	1991	67.20	8

Roughly from memory my market would have been something like this:

Adel 500
WBD 14
Rich 5
Hawt 1.38

This is what I mean. I'm not convinced too many people properly accept what punting value is. Most are held back by thinking backing a loser is a bad bet and backing a winner is a good bet. I make bets all the time that fall over badly, that people would say "dumb bet", but IMO were actually a wise bet. For example, I might take 4.00 on the 'dog on the basis that I feel they could be due a bit of upward trend and the fave after six on the trot could be due a flat spot. If the flat spot doesn't occur and the fave wins by ten goals that still doesn't disprove my bet. If after 200 bets I'm losing, well that proves my bets were wrong but not one shallacking that to many would only look like a 'dumb bet'.

A couple of example staments I hear a lot where people are really tricking themselves out of profits are;

1. "Yeah, Hawthorn will win but you'd be crazy to take the 1.40 - NO BET!"
[I heard this from a big punter who earns his living soley from punting on the footy (plays the 'caps mostly, which for those accustomed to tipping margins is really about taking value - and I'm certainly not knocking that method - horses for courses) If he thinks that then with 3.35 available on the 'dog (Rich), well he should be loading up on Rich, WITHOUT HESITATION! Others agreed with him and all said, "yeah, too short, NO BET!" all thinking they understand value by wisely not having a play. Guess who won that game?

2. "Yeah, I agree 2.50 is good odds but this game is a dead set toss up. You'd be a brave man to have a bet"

Can I ask you If you were to frame a market on who would get more Brownlow votes out of Judd or Ottens this season, what odds would you have?

I'd have to think about that one some more BJ but probably make it about 1/4, 2/9. The querry I have with Judd a little is he hasn't had the same prep this season. He's come through shoulder surgery and re-hab this time so is giving blokes a head start in prep. I'd rate him shorter otherwise.

Ash.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by Beejayville

Oddly enough, I am considering having a small bet on ottens now, as things like this sometimes have a way of biting us on the bum again

Yeah, he'll either come first or last, we both know how these things work , but I'm not worried about all that. As I said one result either way proves nothing and shouldn't deter people giving their view.

As a matter of fact, I've no doubt Ottens and Mooney will tie for first and my bets will get pushed.

[Jumbo]

Ashtee,I followed you last year and I must say you are very,very good,hopefully more of the same from you this season,Good Luck.

[Beejayville]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

This is what I mean. I'm not convinced too many people properly accept what punting value is. Most are held back by thinking backing a loser is a bad bet and backing a winner is a good bet.

When I used to bet on horse racing I used to rate the field to 90% and bet to return 100% or more on any given race...I often had multiple bets on a race and some friends used to ask me why I would back more than one horse a race when only one could win...I always had to explain the concept that I am backing horses who were over their odds according to my ratings and the idea was to make a profit on the race if my value horses won...So every time I backed more than one horse a race I knew I was going to have losers, but I also knew if one of them won I would return my investment plus profit for that race.

Best overlay i ever had on the races was a horse called Playful Princess in the Australian Cup and I rated it at 4/1 and got 16/1 at Ballarat race course...Definitely agree with you as far as value goes, if you can always find value then you will end up better off in the long run, as long as your assessments are correct.

Without giving away how you do things Ash, how do you assess a football match and what factors are the most defining for you when it comes to rating a football match?

[Hands Solo]

Ash, a couple of quick questions. First is just a generalish one, the kind the cat kills: How much of an influence does your opinion of particular teams affect the Brownlow prices? I know you've said it has some impact, just wondering how big. Second, I take it you have a Betfair account? I noticed some of your best prices for selections have seen those runners matched a fair bit higher on Betfair.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Ash, a couple of quick questions. First is just a generalish one, the kind the cat kills: How much of an influence does your opinion of particular teams affect the Brownlow prices? I know you've said it has some impact, just wondering how big. Second, I take it you have a Betfair account? I noticed some of your best prices for selections have seen those runners matched a fair bit higher on Betfair.

1. A lot. Simply because the top teams get most of the votes so it's no surprise the winner is invariably from the top clubs. Otherwise I'd have Brown half the odds I rate him, Black and Power right up there, and also Stevens and Fevola and I'd have Wells half of what I make him. This is why I'm on a number of Geelong players - I fancy them for top-4 at least.

2. As I said, many of those Bookie odds are now out of date as I haven't updated all players since Betfair got properly involved. I took the 170.00 Wells and that's my 80.00 bid for McLeod if someone would like to help themselves to a free $6.00. Problem at Betfair is no Each Way option and for small punters backing several players means tieing up a chunk of the betting bank. I mostly don't have any big futures bets but instead have lots of little ones throughout the season.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by Beejayville

Without giving away how you do things Ash, how do you assess a football match and what factors are the most defining for you when it comes to rating a football match?

Preparation: Watch, if not all, as many games as possible, including recording and watching during the week - even watching just part of the game still gives a general feel for why that game went the way it did.

I write a report on every game. Broken down into, scores, team strength, weather and conditions, morale and motivation, prep/rest/travel, application, etc. It doesn't have to be detailed to be effective - it might only take a minute.

Read articles. Eg. Todd Viney's weekly report on the Hawks web site often divulges some great info.

Stats I don't get carried away with. Watching the game is far more important IMO.

Assessing a game: Use both sides of the brain. The left side organises all the above data plus line-ups, etc but the right side (intuitive side) is much much smarter than that I believe. My odds rating is often done in an intant - by what feels right. So i'm drawing not so much on past stats but more on what the intuitive mind thinks will happen this time (hope I'm not sounding too sci-fi) At the same time if I feel one team is a 1.50 chance I must also strongly feel the other is a 3.00 chance, to the point that I won't fear backing either depending on which is the value.

Looking out for motivating factors is a good area to gain a winning edge I believe. Although this is harder these days because all clubs have tightened up in these areas over recent years. For example these days we rarely hear coaches making bold pedictions about an upcoming match. Whenever I hear it it usually tells me that that club doesn't believe it can win. Also it can motivate the opponent of course.

Ash.

[Hands Solo]

Cheers Ash, was more curious than anything. I always wondered what it would be like to do your own personal vote tally for each round and then trade the Brownlow market on Betfair during the tally. I remember Dal Santo hit 5s two years back when I took him at 117s and wished I could have layed, except the back was with Sporting. Always got me wondering though whether the market could be traded from that angle.

Still haven't had a single bet for this year and probably wont. Generally a selection or two will hit 150s or so before hitting 17s, so I might hope to catch one of them

[Ashtee]

Oscar, I consider the advantage of backing is the bookie feels obliged to post prices on every market and every competitor. As a punter we don't have to back every competitor but if the bookie makes a judgment error with just one, then we can pick it off. That's where laying whole markets on Betfair can be more risky. Making isolated lays like you were talking about is different of course.

Funnily enough I market laid the NAB Cup. I laid Brisbane at 20.00 and 28.00 to the point that Bris would have been a disatorous result, even though 35.00 and 41.00 was freely available among bookies - I elected not to lay off. I laid Carl for a little bit of 30.00. Fortunatly I got out with a small profit overall.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by Beejayville

Just for Interest, these are the overlays you have which represent value to me, although I very much doubt any of them will get close, maybe Kornes would be the best chance, but he had a great season last year and wasn't even in Top 10.

Johnstone, Travis 115 201.0 SportsBet
Raines, Andrew 125 501.0 Sportingbet
Griffen, Ryan 125 201 TAB
Embley, Andrew 150 201.0 Acumen
Cornes, Kane 150 251 Centrebet
Murphy, Mark 160 251 Sportingbet
Bartel, Jimmy 168 301 TAB
Shaw, Heath 175 501.0 Centrebet
Swan, Dane 175 251 Centrebet

Yes, well most of them didn't get close at all. Guess I'll take all the advise on board and next season revert to just backing who I think will win.