ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

[davidmphill]

Great to have you posting again Chris.

Best of luck with these and looking forward to your posts in the New Year.

[Donald_Duck]

Welcome back Mr. I but I've to say I disagree with you...
Im playing a double with Ferrer and Federer - 1.98 @ Pinnacle

[Mr Intensity]

Originally Posted by Donald_Duck

Welcome back Mr. I but I've to say I disagree with you...
Im playing a double with Ferrer and Federer - 1.98 @ Pinnacle

Looks like you've got the first half mate. At least Roddick has just held twice in a row

[Mr Intensity]

Much better serving performance today from Federer. Quite disappointed with Nadal, seemed to not have much fight in the second set. Could have been different if Nadal had taken a break point in the first set, but, in the end Fed was too good. Good day for favourite double backers

[Mr Intensity]

Not sure what to make of this final, as both were exceptional in the semis. If Federer serves the way he did against Nadal then he will definately win, in 3 or 4 sets. If he doesn't, and serves at around 65% first serves then Ferrer has a BIG chance. I was really impressed with Ferrer today, apart from a few rogue double faults he was flawless. I think he can handle the pressure of the final, as he's back to being a big underdog. H2H is 7-0 to Federer but Ferrer's performances have been getting better in the past couple of years. In the last meeting in Hamburg, Ferrer took a set and it was a very close match. Also there only match on carpet, in Basle last year was close, Federer coming through 6-3 7-6 (16-14). That match showed Ferrer can get close to Federer on a quickish surface. Also I don't think all those matches and losses mean too much at the moment, as Ferrer has found a new level and is playing like the second best player in the world (behind David Nalbandian DOCUME~1\Chris\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_i mage001.gif">).

One angle I do like in this match is Ferrer to start the better - a lot of times it takes Fed a little while to get his timing going, and in a best of 5 match he can try to swing through it and doesn't mind making a few errors early. Ferrer should start solidly, and I fancy him to take the 1st set. Best way of playing this I think is:

FEDERER LOSE 1ST SET AND WIN MATCH @ 6.00 Ladbrokes 2pts

The way I see it, best price for Ferrer to win 1st set is 3.8 and I think Federer would be around 1.5 if this happens (depending on how it goes down). 3.8 x 1.5 = 5.7 so 6.00 is a pretty decent price.

Also going for a couple of other plays, all following the train of thought that I expect Ferrer to start well and keep this close:

TIE BREAK IN THE MATCH @ 2.5 Boylesports 2pts
FERRER TO BREAK SERVE FIRST @ 2.87 Betfred 2pts
LAY FEDERER 3-0 @ 2.36 Betfair risk 5pts

[Donald_Duck]

Disagree again...

Event	Roger Federer - David Ferrer
Selection	Under 36 Games
Strength	10/10
Date	18/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.06 (Back)
Reasoning	David Ferrer has benn playing excellent tennis but I wonder how well he's gonna deal with the pressure today specially with Federer being all over his weak serve.

[mikho]

Great end of the season Donald.
Hope this run continues next year

[Mr Intensity]

Nice one Donald. Guess I missed all the upsets earlier in the week