AFL Rd. 9.

[TazaD]

Collingwood +30ish anybody??

Geelong just travelling along...I don't rate the Pies one little bit, but it does look like a lot of points.
They got within 16 and 5 in both games last year...safe to say neither team is playing as well now, but still...
Geelong 8-0, but 3 wins by more than 5 goals...Ess hardly count, Sydney were in the game for all but 15 minutes, and St. Kilda held them everywhere but the score.
I know Collingwood haven't beaten a team in the 8 yet (only played 2!!), but they do seem to lift for big games...6-4 in Friday Night games since late 2006, no losses by more than 20 (although favs in most admittedly).
Maybe Geelong 1-40 is best option, but I never have much luck with those type of bets...

Would have liked Freo with a few points...should be a close one...either team under 15.5? Freo have 5 games of 8 finish close, and a 17 point loss at Adelaide to boot...but almost impossible to take them to win given a total case of choke-itis.
Carlton are still Carlton deep down tho too...wins over the bottom 2, and a lucky win over Collingwood, who aren't much good themselves.

I think Port might sneak home, but hardly 1.55 shots. Chad likely back, although S. Burgoine very likely out...Kenelly out for Swans tho aswell.
Sydney could not be any more different home/away...av just 42 I50's on the road this season, and play a much more negative style of game.
Port have had more than 50 I50's just once, and av. just 46 at home...but hold teams to 45 at home.
Forget last game at Sydney...this will be totally diferent. Will be looking at an under, and I reckon I'll get a decent number.
Neither team in any great form to speak of...beaten some poor teams both...
Will tip Port, bit of a toss up tho...

Tiges as 1.40 favs?!...Will take it thanks! Sure, they're rubbish, but Essendon are far worse! Allowing 140+ ppg in their last 5 and just don't look like putting any pressure on.
Richmond have been facussing on playing "tough"...have 2nd most contested possessions in the last 4 games...the exact style that will give Essendon very little chance...not to mention they've played the 3 undefeated teams in that 4 weeks!!
Tigers won by 27 as 2.75 'dogs in Rd. 21 last year...bit tough to figure out a kind of margin they could win by, but pretty happy the 1.40 on offer for the win.

West Coast/Crows could be closer than most think too. Adelaide defense has been terrible away from home, allowing a shot every 1.69 entries.
Much improved effort by the Eagles this weekend, 55-51 I50's but just fell short.
Will be looking for an over, and suspect I'll get a reasonable line.
Crows still far the better team, but think 1.30ish is a bit short.

Was very surpised to see Brisbane @ 1.25 too! Every chance I'll be on the Saints +25 or so.
The Lion s midfield has been great in the last month...+10 is 3rd best behind Geelong and Hawthorn, but they are still very leaky defensively.
On the other hand, I think the Saints' D will be able to keep this one close...allowing a shot every 2.10 entries in their last 4, and only Geelong and the Doggies have been below 2.00 all season!
Only Geelong and Sydney have numbers better than 2.00 fr the season, and both have beaten Brisbane reasonably well, holding them to 23 and 21 shots.
I guess the question is whether St. K. can score enough themselves, with just 16, 25, 24 shots in their last 3...but Brisbane gave up 32 to a pretty poor Carlton @ 1.56 this week and have been 1.65 in the last 4.
Brisbane have had a funny old schedule really...beaten some crap teams Melbourne/Carlton...got a bit lucky it rained v. Port...lost to 3 good teams (Syd, Geelong, Hawthorn)...one game at home v. a middle of the road team was a 2 point win v. Collingwood with 12 LESS I50's, and a conversion rate that will be tough to repeat v. the Saints.

Every chance Melbourne/Hawthorn turns out like it did 7 weeks ago.
Will be after a total

Dogs are a far better unit than the Kangas, and will be taking -14.5 or better. Dogs weere a bit down this week, but still ended up with 3 more shots from 2 more entries.
Kangas have had a horror last month really...beat Collingwood but had -11 entries, drew with Sydney with 5 less shots, 13 less shots v. Adelaide in what should have been a BIG loss, and pretty much outplayed by the Eagles, but snuck home with 4 less entries.
Back in the Dome this week, the Doggies continue their run.

[Ashtee]

Cox a nice return to form but last week was mostly about North IMO. A number of players down on confidence and single handedly dragged off the mat by Simpson with help from a couple other senior players. A shower or two possible (as if!) but the 22.5 looks easily touchable by Adelaide who never seem to have an off day.

Saints away from their Dome but I'm contemplating the 26.5 also. Would it be worth them reverting to their heavy flooding game this week?

I'm already set with the Melb/Haw game. Just the one team to back in this. Layed a nice piece of the 1.06 Betfair for a price of 16.83 Melbourne.

Am thinking about pies & roos but still toying with the likelihood of them lifting the form.

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

Saints away from their Dome but I'm contemplating the 26.5 also. Would it be worth them reverting to their heavy flooding game this week?

Don't think they have to. Back 6 are doing very well, look to have good match-ups for Brown/Bradshaw in Blake and Max...Have found a 28.5 and will be taking it for sure.

Funny the line/price discrepancies between St. Kilda and Collingwood too...would suggest that Geelong 1-40 is definately the play...

Richmond 1.40 was too good to pass up...as with Doggies 1.50.

Looks to be LOTS of rain coming to Perth Sat, but yeah, who knows. Guess that would favour the Crows...shame really, as I was really contemplating an Eagles win...
...had just 4 less I50's in Rd. 2, but couldn't score. As I mentioned already, Crows defense disappears on the road, and Eagles have looked far brighter with Kennedy replacing Hansen, and even McKinley up forward.
Don't think it would be the biggest upset of the year by any stretch.

And Sydney are a big price @ 2.45!! Can't seem to get my head around who will win, so might just take one of Ash's "value" bets, given the 50/50 nature of the game ...

...although, for any newbies having a read, I can assure you that his laying of Hawthorn is the biggest waste of $ yet witnessed on public forums!

[Tough week for tipping. Coming 220th overall in the Herald-Sun weighted comp...might just take Saints, Eagles and Sydney and hope at least 1 gets up. ]

[Hands Solo]

Not sure I would want to take the Pies +23.5. Pies are okay, nothing more. Geelong, summed up in one word, are efficient, and thats just how I think they'll win tomorrow night: efficiently. Will probably lead by 20 or so heading into the final break and will hold off Collingwood to win by 25-30pts IMO.

Geelong 20-39 @ 3.75 [Betstar - same dealio] the value bet for me.

Also have similar feelings regarding the Dogs match. Dogs will win comfortably but I think the Kangaroos are decent enough to avoid a thrashing. Dogs by 30pts or so sits well with me,

Western Bulldogs 20-39 @ 3.75 [Betstar - same dealio]

Can't help but feel that the either team U15.5 might be the play in the Port game. Not yet ready to take it though. I too was surprised by how short the Lions were and the Saints cap isn't the worst you'll see, but it's not a great bet, so team loyalty will see me avoid taking it.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by TazaD

...although, for any newbies having a read, I can assure you that his laying of Hawthorn is the biggest waste of $ yet witnessed on public forums!

I'm contemplating a Melb/Coll double, actually. Save an egg just in case, mate .

[TazaD]

I hope the yoke's not on me...

Taken Sydney @ 2.50...just way too big, imo.

Talked myself out of the Eagles...7 players with 10 games or less r something silly!! Rain helps the bigger, stronger Crows.

Tempted by Carlton @ 1.92ish...Hayden out for Freo is huge. A defense that allows a shot every 1.49 entries as it is! ...

[Rumlesen]

Great job you guys are doing in here

Off topic, are any of you aware of any livesteaming for both the AFL and NRL?

I went to Australia for 5 month 10 years ago. I had the pleasure of watching a Brisbane Brocos games. I think the biggest star at that time was a guy called Winston Sailor or something like that
Anyway, i would love to see some more of it

[[Loki]]

Winston Sailor?

Wendell Sailor used to play, got busted for cocaine and now the Dragons have picked him up. By the way, myp2p sometimes shows Super14 or NRL. They never show AFL.

[Rumlesen]

Winston, Windell i almost got it right
Thanks for yor reply

To bad about the steaming though

[Ashtee]

Setanta show AFL in Europe don't they. Although usually the 5:00am games maybe.

[Henry Jr]

The news just showed Richo limping off from training today.

Might be worth taking a little of EssenScum at the line......

[Rumlesen]

I dont have Setanta sport Ashtee. I got another sport channal that shows AFL, but it is not live

[BURNTUA CRISP]

The Cats are coasting along at present and are doing enough to win matches. The new players they've introduced have slotted in comfortably and has kept them on top of the heap so far. Collingwood are having a tough time with too many players performing well below expectations at present. Their key forwards have been miserable for a month and will find it hard to strike form on the best defence in the business. The Pies will hang in there for a while, but it will only take the Cats 20 minutes to put them out of their misery.

The Dockers come to town and possibly looking forward to another sub-5 goal defeat, like what's happened in their last 5 visits. They are always competitive, but can't get the job done. The Blues were OK after quarter time last week, but never threatened the Lions. Midfield superiority should get the Blues over the line.

It's an away game for Swans against Port and that means lockdown. Take a look at Sydney's away games so far. Total game score average is 143. Port let another significant lead slip last week and it's going to cost them in the long run. They can't afford to drop their home games. Their forward line should kick them a winning score in an ugly contest.

The Bulldogs and North both just got over the line last week and it should be a fierce contest on Sunday. Roos have been poor at the Dome so far and haven't performed well against better opponents so far. The Dogs look too classy around the ground and should win again.

The other games should follow the form book with Richmond, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hawthorn winning well.

Players missing from best 22's.
2 - Collingwood, Port Adelaide
3 - Geelong, W.Bulldogs
4 - Sydney, Richmond, Adelaide, Hawthorn, North Melb.
5 - Fremantle, Brisbane, St.Kilda
6 - Carlton, Melbourne
7 - West Coast
8 - Essendon.

Predictor.
Geelong by 22, Carlton by 12, Sydney by 2, Richmond by 28, Adelaide by 25, Brisbane by 24, Hawthorn by 33, W.Bulldogs by 9.

Best Bets.
Geelong MARGIN (1-39)
Adelaide MARGIN (1-39)
Melbourne LINE (+47.5)

Late news is that Chapman is injured for Geelong and will be replaced by Varcoe.

Good luck everyone.

[harke]

shitting myself....another day for the bookies...suckksss

[TazaD]

Broncos?? Sailor's??!!!....

...You're after NRL Rumlesen. Rugby League.

Not this great game of Australian Rules which is widely considered (by me!) the best game in the world...

...if you thought dirty old Rugby was a bit of alright, then you definately should be getting your hands on a game of AFL or two.


Right, so who talked me out of taking those hot pies...

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by harke

shitting myself....another day for the bookies...suckksss

Well, some of them. Running the lot into Demons.

[Hands Solo]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Right, so who talked me out of taking those hot pies...

Hot Dogs taste better. Get some on Sunday

Yes. that was quite lame. But then you know from my name I like bad puns

Have followed my instincts and taken EIther team u15.5 in today's Port Game. I think it should be really close and though I liked Swans on the line I can't see them winning big, so Either team seems to offer more at a better price.

Either Team U15.5pts @ 3.25 Eskander

[TazaD]

Port v. Sydney under 187.5

Sydney scraping a 78-73 win will be great for us all then

[Ashtee]

Nice by Schmidt near end, just as Swans backers would be thinkin OOF coming up. Umps seemed a little scared of Port crowd in LQ . Shame about the first quarter steamer for under backers. The peeler strikes again, I notice.

Good ole Freo, hey!

[misky]

Originally Posted by Henry Jr

The news just showed Richo limping off from training today.

Might be worth taking a little of EssenScum at the line......

Is that a big blow to Richmond? Are they worthy of a 1.30 quote?