AFL Rd. 8...Finally!...

[TazaD]

The All-Star/Big V. game was better than I thought it would be, but still didn't compare to a real game of footy...

...so upwards and onwards...

Friday Night game...looks a toughy (surprisingly!). No odds yet, but I'm guessing Collingwood will be decent favs...No Riewoldt now looks to be off-set a bit by no Fraser...esp. if King can be back.
Collingwood only got the ball inside 50 38 times v. a very good defensive Hawthorn...and really haven't played another "top" midfield imo...
...Saints allow just 47...having said that, 40-54 last game v. Richmond is a HUGE concern...
...in fact, enough to put me right off I think!...yet 4 weeks ago went toe to toe with Geelong.
Collingwood had 9 more shots in a win last season (no Rocca), despite having -6 I50's.
And it's a major concern (or is it just luck that will even out?) but Saints allowing opp. to kick unbelievably straight. Since rd. 2 they've given up 82.45!
Still, St. Kilda are the 3rd best defense (1.95) and better still considering the only 3 teams to have collared them have been Geelong and the Doggies. (Both undefeated, obviously )
No real idea...but depending on the odds, I'd be surprised if it was a Collingwood blow-out.

Another interesting game down here on Sat. Stats would suggest the Hawks, given they allow just 41 I50's, held Collingwood to 38 last week who were the second best at that stage, and now face a Port team who have only topped 50 once. (Last week v. a terrible Bombers...)
BUT, it's been shown that Hawthorn's backline is terrible when the ball does get there, and surprisingly Port have the 5th most effecient attack.
Port won here last season, with 5 more shots and +3 I50's as 2.50 'dogs...
But...they do have a disasterous D themselves, and Hawthorn should be able to kick another monster score here.
Really like the over in this one. Will very likely get a low total due to the venue. The highest total in Hawthorn's last 10 here has been 196 @ 162! and last meeting here was just 169.
I'll be happy to take aything from 199 downwards tho (weather permitting of course)...
...Hawks should win, but will be big favs. Port could be the dog of the round tho.

I really want to go against Geelong here...but can't possibly take Richmond.
Most of the Cats' games have been closer than the score suggests...which of course can mean two things!...and given they won both meetings last year by 157 and 70...
The MCG will tighten things up, but this still could be the game that Geelong play 4 quarters.
Tigers unlucky last week, but have been belted by Kangas and Coll...statistically belted by Hawks and Dogs...
Geelong could win from anywhere from 2 goals to 150 points again!...every chance they'll be <1.20 tho.

Can't wait to see the odds for Carlton/Brisbane...SO much Carlton hype now, and they are playing quite well...but Lions are on fire atm. Have the most I50's in the last 4 games, and only the second biggest dif. behind Hawthorn.
A massive game v. Melbourne has inflated that a bit, but +6 @ Port, -4 v. the Hawks (who av. +11) and +2 @ Geelong last game!
Despite all the big names and talk, the Blues have really only gotten on top of Ess (and still lost!), Melbourne and WC, so this one will be much tougher for them than most will think.
After a bad loss @ WC rd. 1., Brisbane have lost too Hawthorn (12 points), Geelong and Sydney...both of which they were right in stats-wise.
No surprise Brisbane have been big favs in their recent meetings, and won accordingly...but hoping to get the Lions as 'dogs here. Would love a +10 or so...

Next 3 are all pretty boring... Kangaroos should belt West Coast (esp. no Kerr and likely Priddis still). They've lost all 3 road games by 10 goals +...
...but the Gold Coast venue worries me. 3 games there last year were two smallish wins and a loss...only beat Carlton by 17 (were 1.55 tho! How'd that happen?!)...
...and I don't think they're going all that well.
Will be massive favs. Not confident of big margin.

Crows minus just about anything! They've won last 4 meetings at home by 58, 54, 72 and 73...and are playing as well as ever.
Amazing home D, giving up just 20 shots @ 2.36, and at the other end Melbourne giving up 36 shots! Allowing most I50's and have 2nd worst D...although it has improved ever so slightly in their last 4.
Impossible to make a case for Melbourne. Would love Crows - low 30's?..

Sydney same boat as Kangas. Don't like them playing at ANZ...one big win there this year over WC, but only because they kicked so badly (5.15)...just +6 I50's.
Lost 2 games last year there as big favs...one small win v. St. Kilda.
Low scoring venue, but Essendon given up over 123 points in last 6!
Bombers did win by a point last year at the SCG as 3.90 'dogs...
Staying well away.

Right, how much can the Doggies beat Freo by?
Obviously Freo are better at home, close losses to Hawthorn and Geelong...but then a complete flogging by Richmond!...
...but a TERRIBLE defense (although they may get some good players back this week) up against the highest scoring team looks like a total miss match.
Last week in Melbourne was the first time Freo had topped 100 points...Dogs lowest has been 112 last week...although they were outplayed by the Swans, there's no doubt the Dogs' defense and contested ball situations has improved dramatically.
Dogs won last year's meeting (in Darwin) by 26, despite having 8 less I50's...obviously that area has turned right around...+8 this season compared to -7 last!!
Even at home Freo have the 4th worse defensive numbers, so Doggies should really kick a massive score and win easily.
Bit of a shame Freo lost last week, 'cause now the odds will be a bit skewed, but hopefully the Woofers will be backable.

Wooo!!

Might have spoken a bit too soon on some of those games now the odds are starting to appear...

Collingwood 1.75!! I would have thought around the 1.50-1.40 even...on the Pies for sure at that price.

Brisbane only 1.90...

Dogs spot on 1.60 that I'd hoped for.

Reckon we'll see Adelaide -32.5 or so which will be nice.

EDIT: God lord!!

I've just spotted the Doggies for 1.77!!

Really could be one of the bets of the year @ 1.80!

[Ashtee]

Yes, well Collingwood is a big big price and starting to fall, just then. 1.80 still available at Sportingbet, if quick.

Will be watching team injuries on Bris as I also think they are just about a bet, maybe.

I'm also liking Hawthorn, North and Sydney. Would be prepared to take low tomid 30's about the last two although a bit of a weather watch for the Gold Coast. Not that it ever gets around to actually raining.

While at Sportingbet just then, took 41.00 Jack Riewoldt for the rising star.

[TazaD]

Dogs -9.5 @ 2.10 in.

Not entirely sure Collingwood are 1.25 shots Ash!

I talked myself out of taking them at 1.77 (idiot!!)...but think it's about right now.
They've played some pretty ordinary teams for some very ordinary results so far.

Saints are struggling, but they're far better than last time out too...

[Ashtee]

Haven't checked today on latest injury reports but King returning will help a lot (especially if Faser out) and Blake can come in. However, unless Baker, Hudghton, Maguire, Gilbert, Riewoldt, Gehrig, X.Clarke can recover in time and Dal Santo is also 100% and Ball, Hayes and Gardiner can find some old form then I couldn't fancy being on Saints at under 5.00. Just feel recent win/loss status of these two clubs is misleading. Collingwood are certain to run out game-faced IMO.

[Crouch Potato]

A couple of musings: 3 of the last 10 of Collingwoods have been decided by 10pts or less, 4 of last 10 for St Kilda. Saints won 3 of those 4, Collingwood 0/3. Is there something to this stat that reflects that Collingwood struggle in tight games?

Lions 13.00 for highest scoring team of the round. Wins aside, this is still basically the Carlton side that conceded 100pts every game for an eternity, up against a Lions team that will have Brown and Bradshaw as the targets for a still formidable midfield.

[Ashtee]

Depends whether you feel stats will repeat themselves,Oscar, or whether you believe in karmic balancing and that such records can work as (in Collingwood's case) additional motivation. I'm one of these nut cases that believes in the latter, although I don't deny Saints do know how to win a game of footy.

Hudgton selected and Fraser out.

[Ashtee]

Sydney v Essendon Total

ANZ ave 171.5 ppg (22 games all time - mostly/all? will have been night)
SCG ave 178.8 ppg for same period.

Although, ave (all games) scoring this year is up - 201 compared to 189 across last three seasons.

This year;
Syd games ave 165
Ess games ave 228
Although I don't think this game will be the defensive tussle like Syd v St K & North. Syd ave 185 ppg minus those two.

SAT		Light Rain. Afternoon Clouds. Mild.	18 km/h W	2mm (37%)	73%	13	21
SUN		Heavy Rain. Mostly Cloudy. Cool. Breezy.	30 km/h SSW	15mm (100%)	87%	10	16
MON		Numerous Showers. Decreasing Clouds. Mild. Breezy.	25 km/h SSW	11mm (88%)	77%	13	18

Chances are this game should be rain and wind affected and no value in waiting because odds will only drop.

Taking all the below options at TAB you can get Under 190.5 @ 2.03

	2165	150 Points or Less	12.00
	2166	151-160 Points	15.00
	2167	161-170 Points	11.00
	2168	171-180 Points	8.50
	2169	181-190 Points	7.50

[Crouch Potato]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

Haven't checked today on latest injury reports but King returning will help a lot (especially if Faser out) and Blake can come in. However, unless Baker, Hudghton, Maguire, Gilbert, Riewoldt, Gehrig, X.Clarke can recover in time and Dal Santo is also 100% and Ball, Hayes and Gardiner can find some old form then I couldn't fancy being on Saints at under 5.00. Just feel recent win/loss status of these two clubs is misleading. Collingwood are certain to run out game-faced IMO.

I actually really liked COllingwood 1-19 tonight, but when I was perusing through the stats this one stuck out. I still like the Pies to win, but doubt it's going to be a blowout so I've taken the 1-19 @ 3.75 (Betstar)

[TazaD]

I've been contemplating either team under 15.5 all day...

...but it's one of those games that I've been thinking about WAY too much, so maybe it's best left alone.

Just don't rate Collingwood at all...played just 2 teams in the top 8 so far, beaten by both...
...and I have to think as bad as St. Kilda are going, they aren't as bad as the Kangaroos.
...Just that last game, I can't get it out of my mind. Does King make THAT much difference?

Guess I've convinced myself to just sit back and watch to find out.

[DeMMa]

Over 200.5 @ $1.90

**** Yes!!!... Can See A 125-80 Scoreline : Similar To Dogs/saints

[BURNTUA CRISP]

The poor old Saints can't take a trick. The only time they've put a full strength team on the park, they run into the Cats in Round 4 and get flogged. This team is cursed. No matter who their personnel is, the injuries naturally follow. For this game, they've lost their best forward, best tagger and a couple of handy defenders. Fortunately for them, they face a Magpie lineup thats a shadow of the 2007 version. They'll miss Fraser, but they have a pretty full list to choose from. Collingwood have a poor recent record at the Dome and have been pumped by the Saints in their last 3 visits. The Pies have more match winners with Cloke, Didak and Medhurst swinging my tip in their favour, but I wont be betting in it.

The Tigers have had a tough draw so far and it doesn't get any easier facing the Cats tomorrow. The weather will turn nasty for this match and that wont help the Tigers one bit. They find it hard enough to hit targets when its dry. Plus the Cats have the best wet weather players in the game with Ablett, Bartel and Selwood. It's time for the Tigers to be brought back to reality and no one hands out thrashing like the Cats as the Tigers know full well. The first coach sacked betting doesn't look right without Wallace being favourite.

Port go to their favourite ground tomorrow and have a huge chance of providing the upset over the Hawks. In their previous trips to Launceston, Port have never conceded more than 12 goals in a game there and would be unbeaten at the ground if it wasn't for a famous Motlop howler. Both teams have their best player missing with Hodge and C.Cornes injured. K.Cornes has a great record over Mitchell and Port's versatility up forward will cause Hawthorn headaches. I think Port can stop Hawthorn's midfield and grab a crucial away win.

It's about time Brisbane showed the football world where they belong in the grand scheme of things. They have a top 8 list, but they aren't consistent enough to be there. A good team doesn't drop games like these, but it's hard to be confident looking at what they've produced so far. The Blues will be confident after disposing of the Eagles, but their defence is no match for Brown and Bradshaw.

The lowest crowd in years will head to Cararra to watch North vs West Coast. The Kangaroos will overpower the Eagles in the midfield and restrict the Eagles forwards to a losing score. Gibson returning is a big inclusion for North.

Adelaide have made a habit of pole-axing Melbourne in recent years and Sunday will be no different.

Essendon welcome back some of their stars against Sydney, but they'll still get smashed.

Which Freo will show up this week? The one that monstered the reigning premiers or the one that was humbled by the wooden spooner by 10 goals. I can't answer it, so I can't pick them. Their injury list isn't doing them any favours, but they'll serve it right up to the Bulldogs. Hard to go against the Dogs seeing as they've hardly put a foot wrong so far.

Players missing from best 22's.
2 - Collingwood, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide
3 - Geelong, Sydney
4 - W.Bulldogs
5 - Richmond, Carlton, Brisbane, North Melb, Adelaide
6 - St.Kilda
7 - West Coast, Fremantle
8 - Melbourne, Essendon

Interesting to note that the teams with most of their best players out occupy the bottom four spots on the table.

Predictor.
Collingwood by 16, Geelong by 40, Hawthorn by 5, Brisbane by 3, North Melb by 16, Adelaide by 56, Sydney by 44, W.Bulldogs by 20.

Best Bets.
Port Adelaide LINE (+15.5)
Western Bulldogs MARGIN (1-39)
Brisbane WIN

Good luck on the punt.

[TazaD]

Nice hit Oscar...

Should start taking myself more seriously.

Beautiful day down here in sunny Launceston...not a breath of wind (which for some unknown reason will mean a howling cross-gale at the ground!)...
...will be very keen to see a total in this one.

[Henry Jr]

Have it on good word that there might be some late changes on with the Hawks today.

Lewis twinged something in Friday's training and left the track early.

Crawford is the other who is doubtful.

Word is both Stokes and Kennedy will come in.

With already Hodge missing, this would surely swing the odds in Ports favor.

[Crouch Potato]

Cheers Taza.

I liked Port before the round started. Great H2H against the Hawks and strong at Aurora. I also have this thing in my head where I think the stronger sides are more susceptible to poorer performances due to the week off last week (don't ask me to explain it that well - i suppose loss of rhythm). Not quite sure whether I should be taking them on the line or ML (or even either team U15.5), but have somehow concluded that the ML offers better value and have taken them @ 3.05 (Betstar - might be better odds around but I have a bunch of free bets with them and a not too particular fondness for their markets).

Think Kangas should and will win, by a comfortable margin but not quite a blowout. Leaning towards 21-39 @ 3.90 but with little conviction and I'll probably just leave it.

Strongly considering the Lions -6.5/Game Total Over 208.5 double @ 3.20. Brown, Fevola and Bradshaw should clear the game total (with assistance from a shit Carlton defence), and the Lions should have the class to run over Carlton in the end. Should have taken Lions for top score of the round when I had the chance though, missed the boat on that one so probably best just left alone now.

[TazaD]

Good work Henry.

I think I'll stick to the total in that one tho...if one ever appears.

Can't believe I didn't take Brisbane 1.95 when they opened...and we saw last night exactly what happens to teams that move that far in the market... (Collingwood)
...Brisbane to win by less than a goal

Total is just a little bit high for me...

[TazaD]

It took some juggling but managed to get 2.04ish for any score over 190...

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

I actually really liked COllingwood 1-19 tonight, but when I was perusing through the stats this one stuck out. I still like the Pies to win, but doubt it's going to be a blowout so I've taken the 1-19 @ 3.75 (Betstar)

Yeah , it looked good value Oscar, regardless of weather it lobbed. As hard as they may try, just didn't like Saints chances of being the one that finds the line first. Nathan Buckley pretty much summed things up when he reported nine Saints under ten possessions and Collingwood just two players.

[TazaD]

[Certainly not a negative towards Spud's win...]

...but man, what have the Saints done to deserve this opposition goal frenzy?

98.52 against in the last 6 weeks...crazy stuff.

Now, I know the Dogs had similar numbers (against) going back a couple of years, but they were giving up marks in the goal square and free men happily running though the middle unchecked regularly...
...From what I remember, stats back it up...and given the 'Pies kicked 2-3 right out of the date, it all seems to be more bad luck than anything??...

It's really getting to me now...is it a real issue? Will the (perceived) law of averages take effect, or is it one of those things??

Saints dead set stiff imho...(Not to mention the 'funny' bouncing ball in the gol square that would have got them within a kick with a minute left!)

Anyway...the difference between the top 4...(and possibly Sydney) and the rest of the rabble is rediculous.
Start the finals now.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Good work Henry.

I think I'll stick to the total in that one tho...if one ever appears.

Can't believe I didn't take Brisbane 1.95 when they opened...and we saw last night exactly what happens to teams that move that far in the market... (Collingwood)
...Brisbane to win by less than a goal

Total is just a little bit high for me...

Yeah, all I did was stare at it (1.95) also, thinking I'll regret it if i only stare - Black 28 & 2 goals, Johnstone 32 & 3 goals. That was a really worth waiting about their fitness.

Goal shooting's always something I've always taken a different perspective on and there's a few things I've noticed about it. Remember watching a game some time back, with the winner kicking something like 13.12.90 to 8.28.76. The winner was definitely the better side on the day.

[Crouch Potato]

Really irked that I did not do anything on the Lions game. Annoyed too at the result of the Port game, only because my tie breaker was 1pt off, so would likely have cleared out the tipping if they got up. Anyway, time to stop drowning in spilt milk...

Both Geelong and Hawthorn struggled to win this week, coming from behind at HT. Western Bulldogs are the other 'hot' team who could suffer from a loss of rhythm due to the week off, so maybe it'll be 3/3. Problem is Freo have lost their last 2 games after leading at HT, so are probably going to be more conscious of blowing any lead this time around. Have taken a small interest in the Freo/WBD double @ 6.50 (Betstar - again using up free bets)