AFL Rd. 21.

[TazaD]

No takers this week?...although I see Ash has some faith in the 'Roos.

Initially a couple of games jumped off the page at me, but I think my only concern this week will be the Eagles +39.5.
West Coast's last 4 games have been statistically quite good, the main difference being that they have finally got something going up forward, av. a shot every 1.85 entries compared to 2.02 for the season!
The possible inclusion of Hansen will help that even more...
...and that's where Hawthorn have fallen down all season. Allowing a shot every 1.78 entries...1.44 last week to Richmond.
Eagles have been ok at home all season, just -4 I50's per game, now with a decent forward line shuold be dangerous.
Hawthorn have travelled 3 times and snuck 3 wins, but all by 15 or less.
Hodge out (kicked 3 last meeting)...and the Hawks 'only' won that last meeting by 57, despite WC being terrible on the road.


Looking very closely at Essendon...and I still think they are the play, but a bit scared now.
Got to within 30 points (only 5 shots)...and were in front at 3/4 time last meeting without Lucas and Lloyd...Flether and Hille both played big games tho...
Dogs clearly struggling...bit of a whisper that Gilbee may miss...
40 looks like a lot to me, but the Bombers were pretty horrible last week...
Guess it could easily blow out, but anyone would be mad to take the Doggies.

Freo?? Head Doctors' opinions please!! I like them @ anything over +15.5 (which they clearly are)...but did they thrown in the towel last week?
What happened?? Coming off a year of close losses...specifically coming off what should have been a great win @ SCG, only to serve up that rubbish?
Richmond are still the most over-rated sie to have ever played the game (besides Port late last year!)...36 I50's last week!! 1 less shot, but Mr. Wallace once again proclaims himself a genius...
...a big win @ WC is their only good win of the season imo...oh, and of course flogging Freo over there too in Rd. 4.
Adelaide pumped them at the 'G without Burton and not a great record there...
...but Headland and Carr seem funny inclusions to me.
Going through the motions??

Melbourne a chance?? A team that has lost their last 7 @ AAMI by an av. of over 69 points??!!
Na, no chance...

Brisbane/Carlton could get interesting. Blues could be a chance in a shoot-out...terrible record up there aswell, but Lions aren't exactly flying themselves.
Would have liked +20 or so...but could be a decent shout @ 3.00.

Collingwood have won the last 5 meetings with Sydney...all as 'dogs!...but surely it ends here.
Belted in clearaces last week, same I50's, just one more shot than an ordinary Port...won the contested ball, but may struggle to have that same impact v. Swans...esp. with Burns doubtful.
Pies have won just 1 of 6 at the Dome since the start of 2007...
Not great odds tho really...Should be close either way...
...actually, I think I can feel a <24.5> coming on...

[Crouch Potato]

Going to try a different tact this week starting with the Doggies to lead at HT by 1-12pts @ 6.50 (Sportsbet). Think Essendon, Swans, Adelaide will do ok as dogs, possibly West Coast too. No detailed analysis or anything for you though.

Go Bradshaw

[BURNTUA CRISP]

I think one thing we've learnt in the past few weeks is that you don't bet on teams that have nothing to play for. So it's best to concentrate on teams 4-10 to find some winners.

The Bulldogs have a nice game here where they can tune up for September without being severely pressured as they have been in the past month. They have players who have been down a little and must find top form before the finals. The Bombers are staggering to the finish line and next Sunday can't come soon enough. With no ruck division, not much of a backline and not much help for Lloyd, it's hard to see them getting within 10 goals.

A nasty trip to AAMI Stadium for Melbourne where they haven't won in their last 11 games. A good win last week, but Port at home is a big ask. Port's team looks decent and they were O.K last week against the Pies. They look strong in the middle and should feed Motlop, Ebert and Westhoff well enough for a comfortable victory.

The Tigers are expected to win their last two games against inferior opposition. Being Richmond, they'll inevitably drop one, but which one. They were terrific against the wasteful Hawks last week who allowed them way too much latitude. The Dockers were poor against the Saints, but they normally play O.K at the MCG. Who knows what version of either team will show up, but we'll go the favoured way in a close game.

Brisbane will want to continue their 7 game winning streak at the Gabba to keep themselves in the finals race. They only need to replocate last week's effort against the Bulldogs to put pay to the Blues, whose season is over. The Blues were never in it against North and will find a similar mountain to climb this week. The Lions need this scalp before taking on the Swans next week and should win comfortably.

The Swans face their nemesis on Saturday night having lost their top 4 spot that they've held for the greater portion of the season. A few things in their favour here is that two players who have haunted them for 3 seasons are suspended (H.Shaw and Didak) and Collingwood have a shocking record at the Dome (2 wins from 8 games). The Swans could have been blown away by the Cats last week, but stuck to them in the last 3 quarters. The Pies are just going and haven't really impressed for a while now. The Swans want that top 4 spot back and beating Collingwood should help them do it.

The Cats have injury issues and the coach isn't letting on who'll be missing come Sunday. The game has very much a Geelong vs Port feel this time last year when Port pinched the game at the death. The huge carrot dangling for the Kangaroos is a top finish is virtually assured if they can cause the upset. They have all the tools to take advantage off the Cats if they don't have the right mindset going into the game. There will be no thrashing here, and the Roos are a big show depending on who misses out for Geelong.

Adelaide are back at the Dome looking for a top four finish. History says no non-Victorian has had back-to-back wins at the Dome in consecutive weeks. They are playing good footy and seem to have solved their forward issues. The Saints would rather cement a finals spot this week rather than drag it out to next week. I wouldn't think it would be a high scoring game and an arm wrestle looks likely. I think the Saints will sneak home in a finals like game.

The Hawks head to Perth where they haven't beaten the Eagles since 1994. The Hawks were absolutely fixated with Franklin last week and the sooner he brings up three figures the better it will be for the Hawks. Very little midfield pressure from them last week allowing the Tigers easy passage to goal. The Eagles were woeful last week and surely couldn't produce the same this week. They'll be sending off some of their stars from recent years hopefully on the back of a decent performance. The Hawks should win, but there will be no blowout.

Players missing from best 22's.
2 - Geelong, Hawthorn
3 - North Melbourne, Adelaide
4 - Western Bulldogs, Carlton,
5 - Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Brisbane, Sydney
6 - Melbourne, St.Kilda
7 - Collingwood, Richmond
8 - West Coast
10- Essendon

Predictor.
Western Bulldogs 112 v Essendon 80
Port Adelaide 99 v Melbourne 78
Richmond 83 v Fremantle 95
Brisbane 95 v Carlton 93
Collingwood 84 v Sydney 89
Geelong 109 v North Melbourne 82
St.Kilda 72 v Adelaide 89
West Coast 75 v Hawthorn 101

Best Bets.
Sydney WIN
North Melbourne LINE
St.Kilda WIN

Good luck to you all.

[Ashtee]

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[Ashtee]

Hansen and Le Cras appear in some doubt.

It was Rd-21 last year Port beat Geelong at Geelong after Cats were fifteen on end and flogging teams. Wasn't it Rd-21 the doggies upset Essendon in 2000?

It feels like the Saints to me also. Although I'll probably have just enough respect for Adelaide to stay out. However, 9 of 20 Adelaide games have seen a HT/FT reversal. Saints have been a come from behind team trailing at HT for 5 of their 11 wins. Statistics I've done indicate the HT result reverses 1 in 3 when FT margins are under 24.5. Maybe all that just means thing cancel themselves out but I can get 3.69 about a reversal. Worth a shot IMO. Am I becoming a numbers man?

Yeah, the 'head case cup'. Looking for a motivating factor (that Richmond must have to back them), they are still a mathematical chance but can't be trusted as favourite. I'm considering 19/20 points Freo myself , mabe stay out .

[ozgamer]

Bookmakers have over-reacted after last week's results in a few games.

Richmond are terribly short. Think Freo at the 18.5+ line is the go. I think they've only been blown away in 1 away game this yr and that was vs Geelong at Skilled.

Port should clear the -15.5 line vs the Dees at home but clearly no value with that. Melb's away form is shocking as is Port's home record.

I give Carlton very little chance vs Brisbane. Their GABBA record is poor as is their H2H. Brisbane are a different team at the GABBA and will win but not sure they'll clear the line.

Think the Pies-Swans game will be close. Pies don't play TD very well and the Swans last 3 there have been nailbiters. Would've liked the Swans at a longer price but I think they'll buck the recent trend vs the Pies but just.

Like the Roos at +29.5 vs the Cats. If the Roos are the no 2 team on form then they should keep this one close.

Think the odds are right with Saints vs Crows. Saints are sl favs by virtue of playing at TD. Game could go either way but I favour the Saints slightly.

I would like to take +37.5 on the Eagles but with their long injury list I think it takes it's toll and there is a huge question mark on their motives so I am staying out.

[Crouch Potato]

Part 2 of my litle expirement: Collingwood 1-12 at HT @ 4.60 (TAB). Have also taken Jonathan Brown to be leading goalkicker this round @ 7.00 (Selected group only, includes Franklin, Fevola, Pav, Lloyd but no Bradshaw, so Bradshaw can kick 10 and Brown 9)

[Henry Jr]

All three of Geelong's emergencies didn't play for their vfl side today. Word is Selwood is carrying a little something.

Also, all three of Hawks emergencies have flown to perth. Ellis was seen at Box Hill today. Expect that Crawford and Dew to also miss.

[TazaD]

Beautiful work Henry...

I survived a late Gilbee out (SuperCoach! ), but Pav out today is gunna hurt...

...Massive Freo choke today...as usual I guess, but had the game by the scruff at varous times, only to chip it away...

On Carlton now tonight...out to 19.5...too many.

[Ashtee]

I didn't see that game Taza but I do get the picture . Of course the funny thing is if Richmond led they would have thrown it away doing the same thing and one sure bet is that no journo would challenge Terry on it.

I like the odds on Carlton also. Lots of talk about the kids & long season (6-day break) but what have Bris really done lately? Beat a sweaty palms Bulldogs, thumped by Hawks, close with the poor road roos who were down strength, and have struggled all up since the break (lots of stars carrying injuries of course). Carlton meet them on better terms for team strength than last meeting. No one giving Carlton a chance and they might just bring something off that and the disappointing result last week. Fev was sooky last week so he may be on good behavior this time. [Anderson, Bentick in for Jamison, S.Browne]

Oh yes, I'm on Sydney at 2.08. Feel they could be due to turn tables and Coll with couple not 100% during week. Not a St Kilda/car crash scenario this week so that Coll form should be discarded.

[TazaD]

At the 2 minute mark (left) of every quarter, no matter where the ball was...

...but even more obvious in the last quarter where they just seemed to play a lot more stop start.

Oh, and Richmond were doing the same thing anyway! Not 100%, but just remembering a late tv stat, I think they had <45 I50's (less than Freo anyway), after 36, 37 and 40 last 3!!

Anyone gunna be brave enough to back Melbourne next week?

Wow, what happened to the Swans? I watched the other game. Good game. Carlton looked to have stopped, but Brisbane just couldn't get their hands on it in the last...was 15-50 possesions at one point!

Was also good to see Travis Johnstone back to his best.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by TazaD

...but even more obvious in the last quarter where they just seemed to play a lot more stop start.

They did exactly the same thing when they butchered the game against Sydney - the only reason why Sydney have a win their last five.

In that third qtr I was gripping the chair saying "good onya Johno, your my only hope". Still looking for some sticky tape actually. Had potato peels and empty packs of frozen food all over the kitchen floor but I found it .