AFL Rd. 11.

[TazaD]

At the risk of soundig mad (or drunk even )...think there are 3 very live dogs this week...

Carlton @ 6.50?! Crazy...I was hoping for somewhere around the +17 mark...but 6 goals?
I know I was a little high on them last week, but it's certainly no shame to be pumped by Geelong inside the dome where they are pretty good defensively...
...sure 3 of their 'victims' have a total of 4 wins...
...but Port aren't any better. Still being rated as 'best team outside 8'...most likely to get in 8...etc. etc...
...3 of their 4 wins have been the bottom 3 with a win over a Saints team who are useless outside Victoria, by just 21 points at home.
More than 50 I50's just once all season (Ess)...were pumped last week in the midfield, 38-51!!
Travelling not such a big factor for the Blues with a big win in Perth already this season, and match-ups seemingly no problem either...met 5 times in the last 3 years for a Carlton win (Dome as 2.02 dogs)) a draw (AAMI @ 3.75) and 3 losses by 14, 34 and 23 last year @ AAMI as 7.50 dogs!

I'll probably take the soft option, but very tempted by the 6.50 on offer...given I was after +17, +36.5 seems a gift.

Eagles...again 4.00 looks big here. 2 teams that are totally different home/away...
...Swans av. just 42 I50's on the road!! Lost to Saints, drew with North, decent sized (if a bit unlucky) loss @ Geelong...small wins @ Brisbane and Port...
Eagles 2-3 at home, losses by 14, 24 and 37 (just 2 less shots), and aren't too bad statistically at all.
Swans won just one game in their last 9 @ West Coast...admittedly all as 'dogs...but still looks to be a decent hurdle.
No better example of Sydney's home/away form this year than the 2 Port meetings already.
Won by 68 at home (+20 I50's), but just 9 away (-8 I50's!!)...

They also beat WC by 62 at home, but just 7 more shots and +6 I50's...

Every chance this is a 'traditional' WC/Swannies game...low scoring and close.
Eagles have to be a real shot here imo, and +24.5 looks enticing.

Tiges?!...Anyone? Was hoping for +21ish...and now looks like I've missed all the 2.50s...so might just leave it alone $-wise, but likely still tip them.
Crows another team really struggling away from home. Just 1-3 on the road, a win against Carlton with 5 more shots, butt were gifted 2 as the Blues tried to run down the clock at one stage.
Also had a pretty easy draw. Beaten just one team in the top 8 (Kangaroos 8th...and one of the worst travelling teams), scraped by Port (6)...have beaten the bottom 3 four times!
Yeah, Tigers are pretty rubbish, but actually won their last meeting in Melbourne (2006) by 3 points at the Dome as 6.25 'dogs...
...and lost by just 9 @ AAMI last year as 7.50 'dogs!!

Another factor is Burton missing. The Crows' forward line has been much better this year with him firing...but when he doesn't...
...he's kicked 2 goals or less in 4 games this year...a 6 point win over Port, a 5 point win over Ess last week, and pumped by Hawthorn and West Coast, both on the road.

imho, all 3 doggies are well over the odds.


On the flip side, can't see Geelong, Hawthorn, Brisbane or Collingwood losing...but all at very skinny odds...

...Doggies look like winning again, but no Murphy worries me slightly...

Good luck guys.

[Ashtee]

What?! You're a total cowboy, mate! I wouldn't leave home this week, you'll be totally swarmed on by advice givers trying to fix you up (I'm speaking from experience) .

Yeah, I've got Carlton a 5.00 chance (and waiting). They arne't the strongest side around but we're mid season now and Port seems to continually be making a hell of a lot of pit stops for some apparent top-8 finisher.

Thought the 6.00 on Kangaroos is little big. Their shocking form has been on the road and they've shown what they've got against WBD, just that they've also got a dodgy coach holding them back ...

... as have Richmond.

Originally Posted by TazaD

Another factor is Burton missing. The Crows' forward line has been much better this year with him firing...but when he doesn't...
...he's kicked 2 goals or less in 4 games this year...a 6 point win over Port, a 5 point win over Ess last week, and pumped by Hawthorn and West Coast, both on the road.

Didn't kick many but I think they were totally gone without him last week. He's a massive loss. 2.65 over at Sportingbet, Taza - I took the 2.80 early.

[TazaD]

2.63 @ Pinnacle too now I notice...

Have been a bit slow on the trigger this week...given I was so quick to shoot myself in the foot last time out!

I lied about the Crows...they've played the bottom 4 five time, for 4 wins and a loss...
...FORE! (Pretend that's a 4 iron )

[DeMMa]

Doesnt get any safer than:

Nadal, Gold Coast Titans (NRL), Geelons, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide @ $2.04

Or am i wrong lol

[Ashtee]

I hope your not putting any money on that, DeMMa . Playing safe options is what's wrong IMO, not to mention you'd be better off running the proceeds individually (would get 2.50 or so).

[TazaD]

Besides the fact the Port won't win

[Ashtee]

Just heard Ebert not back, Cassisi?

[TazaD]

Likely.

Bit of a tummy wog last week apparently.

Not sure I'd be on the Hawks @ 1.10 given their current form either...esp. considering Ess's effort last week...

[BURNTUA CRISP]

It looks a pretty straight forward round on paper, but if you delve a little deeper, there is definitely some value to be found.

Tonight's game wont be as one sided as it might appear. Without Thompson and Jones in their forward line, North do look vulnerable, but not disimilar to their forward setup towards the end of last year that got them to a Preliminary Final. However, North have 8 of their best 18 missing whilst the Cats have their best team on the park since their win against Sydney in Round 4. The Cats will need more than one quarter to blow away North, but should overpower them in the end.

I can't find the handle for the Richmond vs Adelaide game. Adelaide's conversion in recent weeks is concerning, and without Burton, you can wipe 3 or 4 goals of their score. The Tigers were woeful last week and have reverted back to playing the maligned players that have let them down time and time again in recent years. Wallace is going about things the wrong way if he wants to keep his job next year. Tigers have the speed to worry the Crows, but the Crows are too steady around the ground to drop this.

The Hawks have been steadily declining over the last 3 weeks and wont get it their own way against Essendon. It should be a free flowing game with both defences easy to score against and minimal tagging in the midfield. The Hawks should provide their forwards with more quality delivery and get over the line narrowly. Hawks have won 8 of their last 9 at the Dome.

I think we might return to the traditional tight clash between West Coast and Sydney. Some good inclusions for the Eagles that strengthens both ends of the ground gives them a fighting chance. The Swans are so consistent and rarely get blown away and their team is very settled. Another close away victory for the Swans is on the cards.

Not much point discussing the game at the Gabba, because the Dockers have never got close to the Lions there and they wont get close on Sunday. Brisbane are building nicely and should push for a top 4 spot. I dont think the Dockers will be leading at three quarter time this week.

It's been a big campaign for the Dogs so far and their wins on the road have been fantastic. Losing Murphy might hurt, but St.Kilda don't have the defence to exploit it. The midfield battle will determine the result, but the Saints forward line will need to do something special to overcome the Bulldogs' improving defence. The Dogs to win again.

Port and Collingwood look winners in their games, but neither will be big blowouts.

Players missing from best 22's.
2 - Collingwood
3 - Geelong, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, W.Bulldogs
4 - Essendon, Brisbane, Fremantle, Port Adelaide
5 - Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton
6 - West Coast, St.Kilda
8 - North Melbourne.

Predictor.
Geelong by 38, Adelaide by 17, Hawthorn by 26, Sydney by 26, Brisbane by 44, W.Bulldogs by 18, Port by 19, Collingwood by 37,

Best Bets.
Essendon LINE (+36.5)
Sydney MARGIN (1-39)
Carlton LINE (+35.5)

Let's hope the good form continues and good luck this weekend.

[Hands Solo]

Essendon put on a good showing last week, albeit with help from the weather. Hawthorn haven't been going great but I think they can bounce back this week. The 1.10 does look shaky, but I am not feeling a Bombers win so the best looking piece of value to me is Hawthorn to win a close won. Despite massive favouritism agaisnt the Demons they still struggled to win by much and I believe that this game is a good chance of playing out similarly.

Hawthorn 1-24 @ 4.50 Lasseters

West Coast had a good home win against Adelaide and as has already been mentioned the Swans aren't as strong away from home. There's a great history of this game being a close one and combined with the Weagles home advantage I believe that the 4s on offer is great value.

WCE v Swans - Either Team Under 15.5pts @ 4.00 - TAB/Sportsbet/Sportsacumen

[TazaD]

Any news on J. Brown anyone?

Line down to 30.5 and dropping...much lower and I'll really start liking the Lions I think...

[Ashtee]

Drummond out (as looked possible), Leuenberger in. J. Brown? ... well who really cares??




... he's IN

Drum out for Thornton.

[Hands Solo]

Hey Ash, can you give me your thoughts on the dilution factor of tomorrow's game? I'm not there yet, but I am really starting to feel a Demon's special. Just got the feeling that with the off-field talk and the spotlight on them in a MONDAY game, that we're going to see something nobody expects...

[Ashtee]

Usually Melbourne fire for this fixture, so yeah, there seems to be some dilution.

Robo out and omitting Frawley (who they've basically done a Zac Dawson with) to be replaced by the experienced Rivers and Morton a good in as well.

I think the H'cap is a touch high. Hard to see Melb getting it down to the wire but maybe after a few UP weeks for the pies the 1-39 Margin @ 2.75 could be worth a thought?

[Hands Solo]

Yeah that's another thing that came to me the other day. MASSIVE wins against Cats and Eagles, come up against Melbourne and the intensity levels can suffer. Collingwood 1-24 is paying as high as 5.75, and that could well be the go. Just got a feeling about this game, but can't quite work out what it'll mean in the end.

[Ashtee]

Did I hear Terry Wallace blaming his players and getting away with it at a press conference yet again? I can actually fix that for him. Just trade them all to other clubs such as Port (Rodan) or WBD (McMahon) so they can become good players.

They had me going for awhile there. Thought it was heading for the one time Port put a whole game together when there was really no need to worry at all . Thankfully didn't go through with the Port 1-39 but why didn't you guys talk me into the 6.50SU ? Just that I'm guest speaker this week at the local Girl Guides monthly meeting that I took the spread.

[TazaD]

Taking a spread at a Girl Guides meeting could land you in some serious trouble there Ash...

Just makes me all the more crabby about West Coast...(although I did take the spread in that one )...but I reckon I was about 90 seconds away from being in the top 10 of the weighted tipping...

(Everyone else notice Pavlich miss another easy shot when the game was still within reach late...)

Was looking at an over today, but seeing a bit of rain about.

I know Melbourne have won the last 4 QB's, but were decent favs in 2, and barely 'dogs in the last couple (2.02 and 2.20 I think)...
...looks a big ask today.

[Ashtee]

I'm actually a little more concerned about the monthly bit .

How old is she, anyway?

[TazaD]

Old enough if we're talkin' monthly's.

[Hands Solo]

Just can't do the Demons to win bet, not with Robertson out. Still, I think they'll be competitive (they had respectable losses to the other top teams - Cats and Hawks) and have taken them to win by 1-39. Could be a bit of a blowout late so trying to find a balance between breathing room and value (read: I am feeling cowardly today).

Collingwood 1-39 @ 3.00 Betfair