AFL Rd. 10.

[TazaD]

Well, doesn't this look like the crapiest week ever...

Depending on the weather of course, Adelaide should be able to beat Essendon by 50+ without to many worries..
Crows being who they are tho are likely to kick 14.26 and ice the last 5 minutes by rushing 4-5 points...

Collingwood 1.17?! Are you kidding me? One good win and this? Eagles have been terrible tho of course, esp. on the road...although they did win their last meeting at the dome...back in 2006...with really only Judd now missing!
Collingwood had Tarrant kick 4, Buckley 2...
May well be tempted by the points...26 or 27?

Oh, btw made it upto 44th in the weighted tipping...so I guess there's no way the Eagles should be 5.00 shots here, right Ash?

Not sure the Doggies are evens here either mate, but I do tend to agree they're a show.
Dunno, finding t hard to reconcile our form atm...Have been way down in last 3...have played just 3 teams inside the 8...won 2 of course, but a bit lucky in both?...
I've been saying all year tho that I think the Hawks are a good match up for the Dogs...Kangaroos showed, Richmond showed, even Essendon showed that tight 1-1 teams do well against us...I think we have the foot skills and like to use the middle enough to be able to pick apart this Hawthorn zone...plus the Swans game proved a lack of I50's is no real worry.
Hawthorn defense is a disaster when the ball gets that far.
Shoot-out, but not sure the Doggies can get over the line...

Yeah, guess Brisbane are 1.25 shots v. North. 2nd best midfield numbers in last 4 (Behin Hawks) +14 I50's per game...plus score freely at home. Kangas have done sfa so far, and got belted last interstate trip.
Spread doesn't really interest me tho...

...now, are Carlton really 6.25 pops?? Head to head numbers are a disaster...Cats won last 4 (all at the dome) by 78, 65, 70 and 57...
but what have you done for me lately? A big loss last week. Played 1 quarter of football against Brisbane, Sydney and Richmond...should have lost to Freo. Match stats-wise by St. Kilda...
Carlton were pretty good last week against a Freo team that had been troubling some of the better teams in the comp. Only 3 less shots than Brisbane the week before...
Having said that, they've only beaten the bottom 3 teams, and arsed Collingwood...
Still, form since that win hasn't been too bad at all...
Just don't know. Not that brave.

Sydney too good at home for Tigers...price looks about right.

Bit disappointed with Melbourne at only 3.25 too. Melbourne have had the draw from hell, although they did get pumped by Carlton I guess!
Saints much better in the dome, but they are so up and down. Lucky v. Richmond, unlucky v. Collingwood and Geelong...

You'd think Port, but not sure as favs...Won both meetings last year, one in Perth...have had a very tough draw themselves, but Freo have pushed some decent teams at home.
2 fragile teams. Both quite willing to slow the game down for no reason...
...probably best left alone.

[Ashtee]

If WCE get an off focus opponent (main factor) and a slippery deck then that'll be third week on end, but Collingwood should be on upward trend this week. Sure the Eagles have presented better lately but at -27.5 I think I'll be in.

Well if WBD aren't close to evens, then I'd better change the way I've always assessed matches and get me punt'n in some sort of order! Those windy surrounds of Tassie and a little bit rain possible has me rating Hawks just a marginal fave - I'm not suggesting dogs would be so vulnerable in it these days but home teams you'd think are preferable if any tricky conditions. Gotta be careful about buying into the dogs softish draw IMO. The Swans game is the best guide and, unlike a number of their matches, the focus this week should be like that day. More settled line-up than Hawks and should I dwelve into yin and yang here ? (they're due! It's a factor!). ps. Crows were more advanced than dogs at Rd1. 2.10 chance IMO and I'm already on at 2.95.

North and Richmond are both overs IMO. Already on Richmond at 5.00 and the spread is also excellent on both (for anyone who's weak as ...). Considering Essendon also.

Anyway, you heading out on Saturday, Taza? I guess the Pope's not Catholic either! Although, don't do that friken stupid hand frame thing when your on camera, mate.

[Ashtee]

Daicos or Thomas? Can't believe it's even debatable apart from that one was innovative for the time. Thought O'Briens against the Saints is a major GOTY contender, though.

[TazaD]

Funny story about the w'end, Ash...

Seats sold out weeks ago (unorganised!), but my membership gives me general entry...although it was always going to get messy trying to convince the man on the gate, given we haven't quite advanced to the scanning of barcode technology just yet

But, I get home today...registered mail...Western Bulldogs...Ticket!! Couldn't believe it.
No good for the gf or any mates obviously, but they can stand where they can find a spot! lol.

Lucas looks to be back...Kerr looks to be missing again...And Lloyd could be out...

Like the look of the Crows -41.5...nothing else.

An over down here, but probably won't be near a computer within the time span required...

[Ashtee]

Yeah, I don't think WCE squad will be greatly stronger.

They've unloaded on Bulldogs by the looks. 3.00 into 2.67 (which I'd still take.)

Not a bad little use of their data base. I guess if they can get all their Taz-dogs at the game it might help them over the line - and a pretty good P R thing really . Wonder if you could be cheeky enough to thank the club in email with sob story about the GF and mates with cancer then considering the blockbuster status sell the single ticket for couple of hundred.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

There could be a huge gap open up between the top and bottom 8, and it's up to Port Adelaide and St.Kilda to win to keep themselves in the hunt. It's hard to see any of the top 8 teams have such a poor form slump down the track, that they could lose their finals spot.

The Crows have had a great record of keeping their opponents to very low scores at AAMI this season. This should be no exception seeing that Essendon's midfield is struggling big time. With Watson out, Stanton easy to blanket and McVeigh coming back from injury, it's hard to see how Lloyd and Lucas will be supplied against a great defensive unit. The Crows will win, but it wont be a massive blowout.

We'll see how far the Magpies have progressed after ripping Geelong last week when they take on the Eagles. Surely that was a one-off and things will return to normal on Saturday. The Eagles have been poor on the road but they have some confidence back after beating the Crows. One big quarter for the Pies should see them win comfortably.

The great games keep on coming in Launceston with 1 vs 3 doing battle in the match of the round. The Hawks did enough to win last week, but the fluency wasn't there due to key runners missing. Their drive from defence wasn't as assured with both Guerra and Dew missing and their delivery inside 50 was below standard. The Bulldogs are going well and it was no shame to lose to the Kangaroos last week. I have a feeling Brad Johnson will either kick a bag or drag the Dogs over the line in this one to make up for last week. Injuries are starting to slow the Hawks down and that will be enough to get the Dogs home. It should be entertaining seeing as both defences are easy to score against.

Heaven help the Blues this week because they are going to get annihilated. Their defence is looking as bad as it has been in the last few years and they have no weapons to even compete with the Cats. Fevola will be held by Scarlett, Ling will sit on Judd and Murphy, Stevens and Simpson will be under the pump all night. The Cats were mentally off last week and paid the price for it. They'll be breathing fire this week and will destroy Carlton.

The Lions are looking fearsome again, and if they want a top 4 berth, they can't be dropping home games like this. The Kangaroos will be no pushovers and they normally lift for games like this, but I think they'll be outclassed in the end.

Sydney and St.Kilda should have regulation wins on Sunday against inferior oppostion, but the game in Perth provides the mystery of the round. Which team wont choke and win the game? Port have some classy players missing and been pipped by some good teams in the last few weeks. The Dockers welcome back J.Carr to provide more grunt in the middle. Farmer needs to provide more than he has recently and their defence has been leaky of late. The game means more to Port and they should sneak over the line.

Players missing from best 22's.
2 - Collingwood, Sydney
3 - W.Bulldogs, Geelong, Port Adelaide
4 - Adelaide, Hawthorn, Richmond
5 - Brisbane, North Melb, Melbourne, Fremantle
6 - Carlton, Essendon, West Coast.
7 - St.Kilda.

Predictor.
Adelaide by 43, Collingwood by 21, Hawthorn by 3, Brisbane by 18, Geelong by 51, Sydney by 18, St.Kilda by 27, Port Adelaide by 14.

Best Bets.
Geelong LINE (-40.5)
Western Bulldogs MARGIN (25+)
St.Kilda POINTS (-29.5)

Good luck everyone.

[Ashtee]

Yes, shapes as a dry flat track in Launceston and without those windy surrounds of Tassie in play. Still the Bulldogs continue to tumble in, and fair enough too. The 2.38 at Ladbrokes is more than worth taking.

Coll/WCE line now into 24.5! Didn't expect that. Nice deal on Collingwood IMO.

Could have got 3.00 North +15.5 today (with Tri Bets) but notice that's gone. Do think Syd/Rich Tri Bet EU15.5 @ 4.5 Sportsbet is a great deal though. I suspect it will be tight.

Tempted to have a nibble at Essendon +42.5 should there be no late omissions.

[TazaD]

Heaven help the Blues this week because they are going to get annihilated. Their defence is looking as bad as it has been in the last few years and they have no weapons to even compete with the Cats. Fevola will be held by Scarlett, Ling will sit on Judd and Murphy, Stevens and Simpson will be under the pump all night. The Cats were mentally off last week and paid the price for it. They'll be breathing fire this week and will destroy Carlton.

You're both mad...you're all mad!!! MAD, I tells ya...(esp. that Ess call...ahem...)...

Waite missing, BC...um...but Thornton back...Geelong forward line non-existant lately. Ottens wont be the big, white hope...Chapman is a bigger out than most give credit for...
Pretty sure Ling won't take 2 blokes, and (assuming Ling -> Judd), I'm pretty sure Murphy, Stevens, Carrazzo, Simpson, Bentick, can absolutely match Selwood (probably Stevens' minder), Corey, Bartel...but possibly not Ablett!

I'm a big non-believer in the "bounce back" rule...if there are problems, then far chance there are problems...with the line climbing ever higher, I reckon I'll give the Blues a show @ +40 or so.

Taken a few...(must have been depressed not wanting a bet this week!! )...and all against the masses it seems...

I got the Eagles @ +27. Can't see Collingwod being physically able to lay 80+ tackles again. Big mental drop off game for them.
Eagles been so much better last couple of games with the young guys playing. Renewed enthusiasm...scoring had been the problem, but 23 shots v. Kangas in a close loss away, and 27 shots in a big win at home v. a quality side...McKinley, Kennedy...
You gunna tell me a Centre line of Kerr, Priddis, Braun, Fletcher, Stenglein, Ebert, Cox...can't match what the hell ever Collingwood have to offer?!
Clearly the key match ups are Brown and Wilkes @ CHB...but history will say Rocca/Cloke won't have two good ones...
...Eagles big shot for the upset imho...

Melbourne +25.5. How about Melbourne's draw?? Played 7 games outta 9 against the top 8...beat Freo, and lost to Carlton...but interesting numbers from that game.
Just 3 less shots...18 MORE contested possessions...realistically nothing in Carlton/Saints stat-wise...if anything Saints' lack of pace will hurt them all the more here.
Davey big out admittedly, but Melbourne huge live dog...

Sydney -24.5.

Right...Why??...No, why? Richmond. Has Terry hypmotised backers...I know his excuses sound great at the time...lol...
...Beat Ess...great...-25...TWENTY FIVE!!! I50's (and 10 shots) v. Geelong...yeah, should have beaten Saints but they suck...-24...TWENTY FOUR!!! I50's and 17 less shots v. Hawthorn...
...-5 I50's and shots v. Dogs...
...pumped by Collingwood and the Kangaroos, and same shots as Carlton way back in Rd. 1...
Up against Sydney...who have lost just 2 of their last 10 at the SCG...every win by 28 or more...and have won the 2 previous meetings by 66 and 48.

Won't be any rain down here guys...I'll be the guy holding a pnk balloon to see what the wind actually does do in this cursed stadium!! Har for me to believe the Hawks are into 1.80 or so...nice work for the early 3.00 Doggies, but still not convinced.

Meeting up with a few of the boys afterwards, so will be sure to post a pic of my signed boob if we get up...

[Ashtee]

He's so obliging to the media that the weak prciks forever let him off the hook. Anyway, Tigers are hooome!

... as are bulldogs!

That was a good idea Essendon holding it up with 16secs to 3/4 time (when attacking) . Mind you, he maybe thought it was 40secs .

It's the thought that counts, Taza, and always a nice thought to have Collingwood falling over (where are they when we need 'em).

[Ashtee]

Also been rumours during week that could be couple late outs at hawks including Mitchell??

[Henry Jr]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

Also been rumours during week that could be couple late outs at hawks including Mitchell??

The mail is that Mitchell will play (otherwise would have challenged the tripping charge) but either Campbell or Croad to miss.

Great chance for the dogs IMO.

[TazaD]

Wish I had have known last night...would have done some snooping

I laughed at 3/4 time too Ash...I like the new double pump of the ball overhead, signifying that "we've had enough scoring for this term, we'll give you a chance in the last."

[Hands Solo]

Last week I mentioned what Brownie said about playing in the day at the Gabba. Taking a look at the stats this year, it looks even more pertinent, as the 3 night Gabba games has seen Brisbane win by 2pts, and lose by 15pts and 17pts. The Kangaroos play a style of football that I think could cause the Lions problems, particularly in night conditions (in a similar way to the Swans do). However, I can't see the Kangas running away with it up here, so I am going to take Kangaroos by 1-19 @ 7.50, which IMO is outstanding value. On the weather, it is absolutely pissing down here, and showers are forecasted for the entire weekend, which should obviously lower scoring and thus increase the percentages of this play.

Kangaroos by 1-19pts @ 7.50 Betstar

[TazaD]

Great day for me...

...Tipped Hawthorn, missed out on a 'popular' 3.00 winner...didn't have a beer...West Coast beaten by the even 100...

...guess it was still a pretty good day. Woof Woof!

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by TazaD

...didn't have a beer...

I'm guessing that had something ado with last night? I'm feel'n it a little myself.

Channel 513 just intro'd the sports report with "Collingwood's 100-point win ...". Glad they got that sorted. At least all those Collingwood fu~, ah, supporters won't be left aghast about where the blockbuster was .

With a few minutes to 3/4-time and dogs up by four goals Tony Shaw recommended that they should revert to tempo to slow it down to the break. I guess we can now forsee Rodney recruiting him as a specialty strategist coach on that. After all, Eade did seem stuck for ideas . Woof!

[TazaD]

That, and something not entirely right about paying $7 for Carlton Mid strength in a plastic cup...
(Something not entirely right about paying 70c for it even!)

Totally forgot to tape the game too, will have to wait 'til Tuesday to watch again...

...and not sure if it was caught on film, but directly after the final siren, an old guy (60+) wearing a Bulldog gurnsey, climbed the fence, hobbled about 10m onto the ground and proceeded to hang himself with a Hawthorn scarf (ala Williams' choke).

******* hilarious!! (And luckily enough the police agreed, as 4 of them took no action but to calmly escort him back to the fence)

Not so funny was the Carlton game...0.1 in the 3rd...magic...
[oh, and if you didn't watch, I'm tipping already that Walls will focus on this great new tempo tactic either On The Couch or in the paper...trust me... ]

...you know those weeks where in your first post you say nothing looks appealing but then somehow end up having 4 bets anyway...

[Ashtee]

No, I didn't watch the Geel/Carl one but Walls, as a consultant, is the guy who recommends half these coaches into the positions.

At times yesterday thought I was on 502 watching some NRL. Obviously the master coach, Shaw, had advised the bulldogs about the Hawks skills at stoppages. It looked like some rugby, only it was good .

[Hands Solo]

Today...today I think is the day where Freo hold on to win one. They don't really know how to win a game of footy, but Port have lost their last 2 in close ones, so they are struggling with the same thing. In front of their home fans today, I think that Freo will be able to finally win a tight one. Given the recent close margins in the games of both teams, I don't see a big winning margin today, so sticking to my usual tricks.

Fremantle 1-24 @ 3.75 Centrebet

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

No, I didn't watch the Geel/Carl one but Walls, as a consultant, is the guy who recommends half these coaches into the positions.

Let me run you through it...

8 minutes left in the 2nd, Judd holds the ball above his head (yeah, imaginative stuff...)...Walls acts like he's never seen it before?!!
"What do you think that signal is all about?" he asks...(good lord...)...
...anyway, sure enough Carlton hold possession for the next 3 minutes, and suddenly Robert's excited..."oh", he says, "definately slowing Geelong down here.", he says...
...No mention of the cross-goal pass (backline) where Bentick I think it was took a very good, strong mark agaisnt 2 Cats that really could have easily been an easy Geelong goal...

...anyway, turns out that Carlton kick the only goal in the last 8 minutes (from a 50...no way in hell they were getting it forward any other way!!).

Stroke of pure genius by Rats.

Word on the street is that Chadwick is out for Port, and in fact, they flew 2 emergencies to Perth...

[gtfo]

Hey Taza, may I ask where you got that info about Chad from?