AFL Football 2007 - Computer Generated Predictions

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AFL Computer Generated Predictions - Season 2007

For those familiar with the concept used in my NBL Computer Generated Predictions in the NBL Basketball throughout last season, I have setup a similar program for the AFL this year. The results of the NBL thread (click here) was a 79% win rate (85 wins from 107) and i hope to have a similar sort of success rate with the AFL.

To generate the predictions i take into account many different sorts of data which include the following:

- Average Score
- Avg Winning/Losing Margins
- Percentage on Ladder
- Total Quarters Won
- Total Halves Won
- Recent Form (Last 5 Games)
- High/Low Scores
- Home/Away Results
- Last 5 Matches Against Opposition (Head to Head)

Once all this data is taken into account, I weight the categories and convert all the data into percentages. By weight I mean, for example, Recent Form would be worth more points than what High/Low scores are worth, or Average Scores are worth more than Total Quarters Won. This way teams the better teams are rewarded.

As we are only a couple of rounds in, it may take some time for the scores to sort themselves out, but overtime it should become more and more accurate as we go. I will continue posting the results of each round every Monday at the completion of the Round inside this thread the same way i did for the NBL one.

So heres to the future!

[Crouch Potato]

Very much looking forward to this Ads. After the amazing accuracy your NBL thread had, combined with the fact that the AFL offers a market for both teams scores, I'm quite looking forward to seeing your predictions and enjoying some great successes.

[pete]

Good stuff ads if it is anywhere near your basketball predicitions we are in for a very good year.

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Round 3
Predicted Score						Actual Score
Collingwood	27	41	61	91		Collingwood	15	30	76	115
Richmond	18	52	72	83		Richmond	35	52	76	90
Carlton	12	22	46	75		Carlton	13	55	101	125
Essendon	42	78	117	143		Essendon	51	85	94	122
Port Adelaide	22	48	89	119		Port Adelaide	6	28	53	63
Adelaide	33	52	70	84		Adelaide	21	51	67	87
St Kilda	24	46	71	90		St. Kilda	39	49	82	116
W.Bulldogs	24	47	63	84		W. Bulldogs	14	24	46	66
Fremantle	28	44	67	86		Fremantle	8	28	52	70
West Coast	28	53	88	106		West Coast	25	42	65	101
Sydney	12	18	35	60		Sydney	33	48	58	96
Brisbane	24	54	72	83		Brisbane	27	46	68	69
Melbourne	21	36	47	63		Melbourne	13	28	38	57
Geelong	29	64	109	141		Geelong	38	74	94	109
Kangaroos	26	49	63	79		Kangaroos	16	34	48	70
Hawthorn	11	35	64	99		Hawthorn	9	24	60	91
Round Stats	Pld:	8				Round Stats	Pld:	8
Wins	5					Wins	5
Losses	3					Losses	3
Strike Rate	63%					Strike Rate	63%

[Crouch Potato]

Looking at your predictions Ads, you got half of the margins right (1-39 etc.) and almost came very close to picking an exact margin. If you don't mind, I'd like to run a system based on your predictions in the S&S thread.

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Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Looking at your predictions Ads, you got half of the margins right (1-39 etc.) and almost came very close to picking an exact margin. If you don't mind, I'd like to run a system based on your predictions in the S&S thread.

No problems mate, fine with me

[Crouch Potato]

Cheers mate. I'll open it up when you publish tonight's prediction. I just hope I wake up in time, I spend most of the night playing in the PL poker freeroll
Time for some zzz

[Crouch Potato]

Cheers again Ads. Running it in here: Convict Capers

I hope I haven't just jinxed your entire season

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Round 4
Predicted Score						Actual Score