AFL Finals Week 2

[ozgamer]

WESTERN BULLDOGS 1.25 vs BRISBANE 4.00 ---- -/+ 25.5 : 1.91
COLLINGWOOD 2.18 vs ADELAIDE 1.69 ----------- +/-5.5 : 1.91

Doggies are short enough and may be worth a go at the - line considering their superior H2H record and the fact the Lions only just scraped home. Both are good finishers but the Lions defence tends to leak goals more easily and are quite vulnerable with a few suspect players injury-wise plus they are playing away from home.

Pies were disappointing for the 2nd week in a row but they've had much more stronger opposition than the Crows so understandable that the Crows are starting favs against the Pies. Pies usually match up well with the Crows, they will act smarter at the selection table this week and they enjoy this kind of situation where they're backs are against the wall. Pies @ $2.18

[Ashtee]

Just hope this thread doesn't go as crazy as last week, Oz - trying to keep up with all the quickfire posts.

Bit of talk how Murphy will come up but I also suspect Bulldogs may blow this out. Some of them (Bris injured players) may not come up so well on the 6-day break, not the depth of experience WBD have, and now that the worst coach in the eight is absent, I doubt WBD will hand over any advantage.

From the Rd-19 meeting Collingwood will basically have Fraser in for Pendlebury. Bock, Dangerfield, Hentschel were all absent for Adelaide and they lost an influential Burton after HT, leaving them frail in attack. Adelaide led at HT, but were then well controlled by the Collingwood D, and eventually fell right away in Q4 to lose by 21. So we probably should take Adelaide heaps more seriously here although I've the hunch Collingwood will produce an ambush on the 'talk of the town' Adelaide. I make it about evens but may be interested in Collingwood at the +5.5 or even try them to win by a margin.

[ozgamer]

Razor-sharp wit duly noted Ash and thanks for stopping by

I take it Taz has put the cue-stick away and geared up for the NFL. I have no idea what to do in the AFL off-season

The Friday night game really concerns me as a fan only. Was happy to see the Lions make it to week 2 and I would never get tired of watching that last quarter but I think a top 8 finish and a finals win at home covers all their goals for the season and this ends up really as a hit and hope. The Doggies have had Brisbane's measure from 2005 onwards and there is a distinct class difference b/t teams 1-5 and 6-8. I'll wait til the teams are announced just in case Brisbane name a near full-strength team hoping the line comes in a point or 2.

? on Fraser atm and I wouldn't spend any time on Rocca's recovery. Wood was going fine before he got dropped. He needs to come back in.

[ozgamer]

The plot thickens. Fraser, Beams, Rocca join Pendlebury on the injured list and McCarthy is dropped. Of those Fraser (somewhat, Wood comes in) and Pendlebury would be missed. Pies out to $2.25 now. They still have their matchwinners there and with all the negative press, this has the makings of a Pies upset so I may be tempted to have another go at them.

Not keen on the - line tonight anymore. B Johnson >1.5 goals @ $1.83 seems alright. Averages 1.5 goals per game this yr and has kicked 2+ the last 4. In a game where they are expected to win over a rival they have dominated since '05 (Johnson has kicked 2+ last 7 times vs Brisbane), I expect Johnson to feature well.

[TazaD]

Yeah...still about...just a bit pissed aobut last week in a couple of ways.

The main one of course...another wasted opertunity...

...but the only bet I liked was the under in that game, but didn't want to be involved.
Stupid really.

Looking into the under again tonight, but it could be just that little bit too low.
Pretty amazing, but the Dogs have only given up one game over 100 in their last 9 @ MCG (start of 2008)...that was to the Hawks in last years Prelim...av. of low 80's in that time...
We know the Lions struggle away from home to score...97 has been their highest here in the last 5 (start of 2008)...and that was v. Richmond...av'd 80.6 away from home this season.
The whole world knows that midfield 1-1 pressure slows the Dogs' scoring...Geelong are great at it, but not sure Brisbane have the same speed/mentality to do it.

It does look like being incredibly windy here tho...

Meh, last week was far more clear cut and I wimped out on that, so no point chasing here.

Come join us in the NFL room, oz...

EDIT: Nice one!! Forgot all about the 'specials' ...Shall have a look myself.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Yeah...still about...just a bit pissed aobut last week in a couple of ways.

The main one of course...another wasted opertunity...

Kicking myself for not taking the 1.91 Geelong last week. Thought it was a bad karma spot for Bulldogs - They did too much press (leave the club promotion agenda for the regular season & I like a side (Geelong) keeping it nice and quiet) and Eade shouldn't have gone with the "pumping the fists to a mate in the crowd" spiel. Geelong were certain to gain motivation (real, not talked up) from any degree of Bulldogs smugness.

IMO this is what he should have said - "we were pleased to get third because we've done well against Geelong and we preferred to avoid St Kilda and Adelaide. We know this will fire Geelong up against us but third was simply the better spot for us". Those words would have done a lot to defuse and balance, or even advantage Bulldogs in the psychology for that game.

Unfortunately, I believe that loss means Bulldogs fall at the second last hurdle, yet again. I doubt they can beat Saints next week.

[ozgamer]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

Unfortunately, I believe that loss means Bulldogs fall at the second last hurdle, yet again. I doubt they can beat Saints next week.

I'm with you there. There was nothing last night to suggest they would beat the Saints.

Edit: I've taken another bite at the Pies @ $2.28. I logged into Centrebet as I noticed they were out to $2.38 and then after I logged in bam! back to $2.28. I just think it's a ridiculous price. Hope it works out

[jeffers]

I'm all over Collingwood today. The price is ridiculous.

People (and therefore bookeis) forget so quickly what went on during the h/a season, like they did with Geelong and St Kilda, offering silly odds (especially on Cats last week). It's the same here for the Pies, they've got a decent record against Adelaide of late, and they are a good backs against the wall side.

It's not often teams go out in straight sets either, and let's not forget it's in Melbourne. $2.20? Yes please.

[TazaD]

Big call guys...

Pretty sure I'd prefer the Doggies to be facing St. Kilda than the Crows!

Flying.

Not such a bad AA effort either lads...I (me ) got in Enright, Goodwin and Mitch Clark...
...pretty sure oz (?) mentioned Le Cras...

...and as much as we (me! ) laughed...Rhyce Shaw just finished runner up in Sydney's B&F! Nice.
[Oh, and Boyd. ]

Maxwell, nasty...

...but Milne!!

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Big call guys...

Pretty sure I'd prefer the Doggies to be facing St. Kilda than the Crows!

What difference does it make, Taza?! They're out next Friday, simple as that! I'm normally an odds man that gives both sides a chance but this is different ... it's simply OVER.

[TazaD]

Really??

Big early call, I gotta say.

Forget about the Saints holding Collingwood up trying to run laps of the MCG...history shows two things...sure, the top 2 do well...
...but the numbers for wins in August absolutely parallel GF apprearances...(which is why I was so pissed off last week).

Meh, you stir...I can guarentee if you see the Doggies + 4 goals or more, all of a sudden you're an odds man again.

Either way, I still think the right side is favoured tonight.

[TazaD]

Forgive me for being the voice of reason...but all winnin gCollingwood tickets MUST be refunded.
Sorry.
Upset Hawthorn folk can talk about umpiring all they want...that is THE worst ending to a FINAL ever.
Game over...until a random pluck.

Everyone always says "It'll affect a GF one day"...well it [almost] did.

Well done for you guys who got up in a clearly 50/50 game...but Crows dudded big time. Big time.

[Ashtee]

Yes, what ever happened to throw the whistle away in the last minute? Particularly when it's an opportunity to get Collingwood beat .

Knight off didn't help and I guess there were lots of little things ...

7.50 Collingwood at QT was surely overs IMO (thought couldn't have them worse than 4.50/5.00) and for what it's worth I also had Crows the fave pre game.

Looking for some +54.5 Doggies and I think I'm in ... woof!

[ozgamer]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Forgive me for being the voice of reason...but all winnin gCollingwood tickets MUST be refunded.
Sorry ............
Well done for you guys who got up in a clearly 50/50 game...but Crows dudded big time. Big time.

I'm just taking the win with good grace and I'll leave it at that. That being said I don't think the Pies will be so lucky next week. A repeat of tonight's effort will see them losing.

[jeffers]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

7.50 Collingwood at QT was surely overs IMO (thought couldn't have them worse than 4.50/5.00) and for what it's worth I also had Crows the fave pre game.

Oh jesus. I was meant to ring up at QT and totally forgot. Mate said they'd be about 4.00 I said 3.50

Still, a winner nontheless...regardless of how it finished. Pies were always too big a price there.

[Henry Jr]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Forgive me for being the voice of reason...but all winnin gCollingwood tickets MUST be refunded.
Sorry.
Upset Hawthorn folk can talk about umpiring all they want...that is THE worst ending to a FINAL ever.
Game over...until a random pluck.

Everyone always says "It'll affect a GF one day"...well it [almost] did.

Well done for you guys who got up in a clearly 50/50 game...but Crows dudded big time. Big time.