AFL - Finals Week - 1

[ozgamer]

Hmmmm it's pretty cold in here. Business end of the season.

Haw vs WB: Nothing in the Doggies' loss last week to suggest that they should be considered - they really needed to win. I cannot have them, not even at the +18.5 line. They may present a contest for much of the game but the Hawks have too many guns firing.

Ade vs Coll: Crows are short enough here. Pies will appreciate the underdog status and don't mind playing away although 2 weeks in a row might be a bit too much for the least travelled AFL club. I like the Pies at +8.5pts ($1.92)

Syd vs NM: Think NM are the ones to beat even if they are playing away. We will leave their huge loss to Port as an aberration and nothing more as their form before that was pretty good. Swan's form coming into this is the worst of the top 8 up there with the Doggies. Worried that Laidley may have given the Swans some ammo regarding the officiating but then again ANZ Stadium is not much of a home ground advantage for the Swans. North to bounce back @ $2.10.

Geel vs Stk: Odds are right here. Just watch the game and hope the Saints can make a fist of it.

[TazaD]

No bet for me tonight...far too tense as it is!...

...but they I'll go the other way...I think it was a great hit out for the Doggies. Matched the Crows in clearances and beat them in contested possessions, tough to do...
...not to mention the clear Aker rush that was counted a Crow goal at a crucial time.

Conditions didn't suit tho, bad efficiency and a lot of clangers hurt on the scoreboard, but shouldn't have that problem tonight.

They pumped Hawthorn in the reg. season...take out the Carlton loss (bad...but were in front at 3/4 if I remember, only to be over-run when load training...)...
...beaten by the Roos, and Crows...kicked themselves out v. a desperate (at the time) Lions (again up at 3/4)...

I think the Hawks have had a far easier run home anyway.

Certainly far from pessimistic tonight...

Haven't had a huge look at the other games yet (Damn NFL!)...can't get a handle on Collingwood. Have been rubbish all season, but then belt Geelong and St. Kilda.
Were very lucky v. the Crows in Melbourne when they lost a couple of players mid-game (Burton for one)...
...but yeah, have won their last 3 @ AAMI, 2 as favs v. Port, but a good win v. Crows last year.

Would like a lot higher price for the Roos, given their road record, last week's performance...and last years belting by a reasonably poor Port.
Has their form been that good? Port, Coll, melbourne...Brisbane with 2 less shots...Doggies and Carlton...
...having said that Sydney's scraping win @ home to Freo wasn't great either.

Kangas had more I50's, but 5 less shots at the Dome this year v. Swans...

Will look at the numbers more closely tomorrow.

Actually like the Saints...4 games all season in which Geelong have not had more I50's...v. Collingwood, Hawthorn (won by 11), Brisbane (!) (won by 27 and equal shots at 3/4)...and St. Kilda, and finished with just 2 more shots.
Ball had a big game tho (not sure McQualter can have the same impact)...and Ottens didn't play for Geelong.

Might look for some totals, but could be a very quiet football watching weekend.

[TazaD]

Wow.

What a way for the 'Roos to flail out!

Only a month ago we were tlking them up as being probably the form side behind Geelong, only for them to blow a double chance with a massive loss and then crash out by 6 goals after being up by 4 early!

Seemed to be doing everything right...chasing, tackling, playing on at all costs...then... Guess they remembered where they were playing!

Still think the Saints can keep it close today. 36 points is a lot...

...eve tho (cough!) Geelong have covered that number in 8 of their last 10!!

AND...one thing keeping me away is the unstoppable Bombers of 2000 (well, besides the Doggies of couse! ) won 3 straight finals by an av. of 76.6 ppg, the lowest being 45!

Still, the Cats' run home has been a bit soft...last 6 have been a close win over Hawthorn here...Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast all pathetic, Sydney were struggling and Kanga's were frauds...

Still, numbers are unbelievable!...last 4 games they've held teams to 39 I50's (+24!), 29 clearances (+12) and just 18 shots per game (+18!!)...
...tough to see St. Kilda kicking a winning score, except if Kosi can stand up and do some damage at FF, but how likely is that to happen?!

Saints actually holding teams to less ppg over the same period!!

More interested in a total...Saints haven't allowed 100 at the 'G in their last 9 at the ground...Geelong just one (Collingwood).
A high scoring meeting last time out could give a decent number...will have to wait and see.

[ozgamer]

Bit disappointed myself in the Roos myself. Almost did the same as they did last week. Think it was more to do with poor coaching than anything else. Gibson on Hall? Hard to plan for that.

Saints have the 2nd best form over the last 10 wks so if anything they are the form side behind Geelong but would like to see how well they do today outside the luxury of TD. Punters have been going for Geelong at the line and I see the over 202.5 total is getting some money as well. Conditions look to suit a closer game but Geelong seem to play well in anything. Hoping for good game.

[TazaD]

Snuck the under in (203.5), but yeah, a LONG way from the way I expected it to pan out.

I guess to their credit (!) Saints went out to score, no defensive stuff...but man, is this Geelong defense good!!!...and they just don't turn it over going back the other way.
Amazing.

Anyway...something to keep in mind the rest of the way...A Geelong game hasn't topped 200 at the 'G unless they themselves score 150, in a very long time. [Which it looked like they might there for a while! ]

(Or we could just keep piling on the Cats...)