WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 6432pts
Returned 6706.84pts
P/L +274.84
Yield +4.27%
Strike rate 34.92% (132/378)

Bri
4.00 Woodcote Place 8/1 var 7.5 pts e.w This one was fancied by some lto for a class 3 handicap race at good last week, a race which he had placed in the year before off a higher mark so there was some credibility in that and the bottom line in he was unlucky, two out he was travelling well up the fence but he got no break whatsoever under munro and eventually was eased, he suggested that day that he wasnt that badly handicapped and certainly on old form he isnt and that run suggested he still maintains ability.

Kem
7.20 Andhaar 9/4 avr bog 15 pts Not much form to go on but from what has been shown so far this one looks the stand out, run two nice races so far, sixth in decent first up and then again showed promise lto when third at yarm, has been strong in the market both times which suggest he is capable of a fri bit and this could just be a decent opportunity for him for a yard who genreally improve with racing.

Yarm
8.05 Askar Tau 5/6 var bog 15 pts. Odds on but i can see why, I liked its second on the a/w and the horse it just lost to that day is now rated mid 80s showing that the two pulling clear that day were decent enough and this one has proved that since with two more victories, rising the handicap a lot lto but it didnt matter with another pretty easy win and looks very capable of going in under a penalty.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 6477pts
Returned 6734.34pts
P/L +257.34
Yield +3.97%
Strike rate 34.91% (133/381)

Hay
3.40 Stevie Thunder 7/2 var 15 pts Been a really solid horse this year, ran an awful lot and possibly at the back of your mind is that he might feel that at one point but up to now in lots of races he has been running well, has had a good strike rate too, winning 4 of them and some in soft ground that should pose no problem at all, run lto was very good in what traditionally is a hot race at the july meet and up just the 1 pound from that fourth place effort that had a few of these behind.

4.10 Boucheron 12/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Another decent race and woodcutter appeals a fair bit but this one too has credentials at this trip for me, made an ok if not amazing debut when in third but reversed form with the second then to bolt up afterwards. Won by miles seemingly, indeed 10 lengths and ok it may have been an average enough maiden but its style was impressive, made all and in style showing lots of stamina, after that fahey for some reason dropped her in trip and she never really coped with it lto but today back up in trip again to 14f, an unknown trip but something that on her second run she should get she has claims even though she hasnt raced on something this soft before.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 6507pts
Returned 6734.34pts
P/L +227.34
Yield +3.49%
Strike rate 34.72% (133/383)

Struggling a bit atm, two at Hay and three at hq where Im off to later.

Hay
2.35 Multidimensional 11/8 bog 15 pts Class act in this field for me, often highly thought after a group win on softer a couple of years back and had disrupted campaign last season but even still hinted at ability and arguably bit unlucky in champion stakes, this season returned to form at asc over longer when just pulled in late to deny group 2 win, lto went off too quick so im ignoring that and besides looks the class act here.

Perks 6/1 bog 7.5 pts e.w Decent handicapper, routed good field on favoured soft ground at don earlier, collection was behind amongst others, since then has run ok at times in all the big handicaps but has never really had favoured ground which he may get today and at an increased trip that should suit, certainly on staying on evidence lto ii should and clear palce chance at least.

Newm
2.40 Prince Forever 7/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Just wonder if this one maybe getting his act together, often promised much and listed third last year was a real class run behind tariq but since then has in turth disappointed, however run lto in traditional hot race offers encouragement, arguably too heavy that day to be ideal but still ran creditible fourth showing some ability is there and on old form not out of this, was 106 rated and now 97 and im not sure if he has declined that much.

3.10 Rainbow View 11/4 bet3 bog 15 pts Tricky group contest with so many questions and virtually all open to improvment so impressions count for a lot and this oen made a startling impression lto when winning easily here, form of that race so far hasnt worked out that well, 1 winner further down the field with the second noticeably really disappointing afterwards, however so was its style that day that its the call today for a trainer who presumably would have plotted this out for the lucarno connections.

3.50 Vitznau 9/1 lad 7.5 pts e.w Another one with loads of handicap form in lots of the big races but run lto was very good, may not have been in the frame but its no secret that it was drawn badly that day and indeed did best of low numbers. This time draw could be favourable as I see a few pace optiosn higher which they could well follow and play into this ones hands from a middleish draw to pounce late as is his style. He has no problem with a bit of cut at all and indeed it could be prefereble, a stiff 7f like this probably is bang on ideal and he is weighted to turn run with top weight around from a couple of starts back.

[The Beard]

You must of been happy enough on Sat Woody ... so would I had I spotted your post!

Managed to back Rainbow View but would of prefferred some of the 11/4!

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 6582pts
Returned 6897.47pts
P/L +315.47
Yield +4.79%
Strike rate 35.05% (136/388)

Newm
2.05 Lush Lashes 5/4 var bog 20 pts Really classy horse this one and one I would like to see against the colts at some point as she could be a fair price to beat them and it isnt impossible for me. Lto was a disaster and Ive touched on that before but obvious class being a group 1 winner before. Trip is the key here, will she get it? Personally I think she will, in the oaks she possibly didnt but that was due to a few things for me, course, still relatively inexperienced then and also the completely fierce nature of that race, they went a brutal brutal pace that day, quicker than the derby and loads of horses seemed like that didnt stay that day and even though that assumption on the day is probably correct, I have mentioned the possible reasons for that and believe that today she will stay the trip and show her class in this smaller field, we will see.

3.05 Sakhees Secret 6/1 var bog 10 pts e.w National Colour 14/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w. Different kind of race now, rather than a quicker 5f at york its now slightly stiffer at the july course. National Colour not a lot of people seem to know lots about but in south africa she is very quick and has some big wins including at 6f. However evidence of lto at 5f suggests she is all speed, really really quick that day on the far side before being caught late on that day and this speedy type is the type I can see leading for a long way here. Sakhees Secret might just be the one to catch her late on, on his day, with his conditions, he is very talented and even though he is becoming so frustrating in terms of showing it he might just do it here. Better at 6f possibly but stiff 5f could half compensate for that especially as I can see them coming back in the last furlong, loads of pace in this race as you would expect and it could just set it up for him late on.

Newb
1.45 Marine Boy 2/1 20 pts Big market move here, has overcome Art Connoisseur to become fav. and I echo that. The Bell horse is a horse I like and was very impressive two starts back in the coventry. However I dont think that was a very strong race this year, the channon horse who underperformed on the day excepted. Since then he was a bit disappointing in ire. another o'brien wonder horse winning in style but he trailed off by some way. Marine Boy in contrast is a complete unknown at this level but on impressions created he could be special, bolted up in real style in a maiden lto, second won since and whilst that still has it to find with the group performer, I believe he can do so with the trainer clearly boasting such a strong two year hand this year.

3.25 Bauer 7/1 10 pts e.w Very difficult with lots to consider, Yellowstone was probably the closest pick of the rest for me but in the end ive gone for cumanis in this race which isnt a great surprise. This one seems another typical cumani horse in this race. It progressed a couple of years ago sharply and undoubtedly has lots of ability, won listed race last year at chester in style and whilst not always being that consistent, on his day he is good and when really fancied lto (halved in price) finsihed just second at good which was perfect as it avoided the penalty, also possibly significant that this is the trainers only one in the race now.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 6677pts
Returned 6976.22pts
P/L +299.22
Yield +4.48%
Strike rate 34.84% (138/393)

Wont be seeing any of this live but

Bev
3.20 Peace Offering 7/4 var 15 pts Big big horse this one and when he gets it right he is fairly decent and evidence is that he has done this recently. Was pretty unlucky at san a couple of starts back but since then has won a couple of times and in good fashion too, he is a sprinter in form which cant be said fo rsome of these, notably hoh mike who is classy on his day and he can take the hat trick today.

Good
3.45 Fantasia 11/4 var 15 pts Interestingly has followed the same path of one of the stables stars Gossamer who won a group 1 at 2 and at 3. She won a hq maiden emphatic style on debut in awful rain conditions but she saw out the trip very impressively that day and whilst the form so far from what normally is a decent maiden has been moderate and thats being kind, clearly she is highly thought of by her astute trainer, the extra furlong shouldnt prove a problem at all considering how well she saw out the stiff july course lto and clear contender. Hills fto 2 year old winner (they are extremely rare) maybe the danger.

Newm
1.25 Danehill Destiny 4/1 var bog 15 pts Taking a bit of a chance here because lto she completely bombed out but her previosu efforts both visually and on the form read well and she is undoubtedly capable of much better imo. Won hq maiden impressively on debut beating some useful horses but then was most impressive when beating prolific and shyrl and both of them have boosted that form at times since, especially prolific who is now a group 2 winner. Obviously you have to take a chance because of her total no show lto but you would have thought the trainer would have thought she was ready for this to put her back in a race of this calibre, mind you I would have thought that about morrison's one yesterday.

3.05 Balthazaars Gift 12/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Winker Watson is probably the class act here but im not convinced at all about pch form and cumani's talented horse shouldnt be dismissed especially with first time blinkers on him. He has won this season and his third two starts ago must go down as unlucky as he was charging towards the finish and that was in a group 3, clearly a level he is very much capable of dominating if at his best, remember only just beaten in group 1 in the past. Blinkers certainly could light him up as could the stiff finish where they may come back to set up his well known late finish.

3.35 Duke of Marmalade 10/11 var 20 pts Very much anticipated clash between derby winner and horse of the year so far. I cant quite see the rest being good enough to get into the frame though it wouldnt surprise me to see rob roy reverse san. form and clinch third. DOM goes back in trip today having shown how good he is at this trip when bolting up at asc. Although I think he will be better at 12f which he won over lto, the strong pace which should be provided by his pace setter should mean it doesnt turn into a sprint which could cause the odd problem and also the stiff finsih should help too. NA is much feared and i wasnt surprised he won the derby, indeed I backed him, 10f shouldnt be a problem indeed liekly strong pace should help him settle better then he did at epsom but it hasnt all been plain sailing since for him and that doesnt surpsrise me as he had a tough campaign at 2 and even early on in his 3 year old campaign. In DOM he is taking on another superstar here and I take DOM to beat him and add another group 1.

Win
6.50 Silver Pivotal 3/1 var bog 15 pts Interesting return for this horse. On its last run it ran on the a/w in the winter derby where she made really eye catching late progress against some quality horses to be a good but still unlucky second. She has shown class previously by beating group 1 winner promising lead no less, she also has won fresh before so despite this long break where presumably she must have had some problems she could still be fairly ready and the detorri booking certainly seems noteworthy.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 6772pts
Returned 7100.65pts
P/L +328.65
Yield +4.85%
Strike rate 35.33% (141/399)

Good
2.10 Summerstrand 11/2 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Hopefully an e.w bet to nothing here. Its never that simple though and there are a few in here I like, now and before the nons, however this one won what I dont think was that bad a hq amiden at all, three pulled clear that day and the third won since, the second (duncan) didnt but he is a horse of major interest if you believe the hype and could well turn out to be a pattern performer in time. After that he was fourth on his handicap bow but some of the beaten horses that have come out since have run with some credit and the way he ran that day and indeed the way he stayed on fto suggests the extra half surely will suit, im not quiet so certain that applies for the talented roaring forte.

Yarm
2.20 Magaling 6/4 var bog 15 pts Big clash between gosden horse who ran with credit at asc lto in a race that has seen some boosts since and a cumani hype horse to some extent. Cumani isnt that well known for his two year olds especially his quick two year olds but the entries this one has says it all, entered for lots of group races later which clearly shows that he is very highly thought of. Run twice so far, fto just lost to a useful and 90+ rated godolphin horse and then when very well backed at good finished fourth but wasnt really given a hard race at all having initially possibly slightly struggle to handle the track, besides the three clear that day looked useful enough including third who ran well in sales race on fri., I will take this one to break his maiden today.

2.55 Siren party 14/5 spo 15 pts I was at yarm lto when this one won on his third career start and he did it well enough, that may not have been such a special race but he won it well enough, the third has run since and the form of that was overturned by prescription since and that isnt that surprising given how good even to a novice like me that prescotts horse looked that day in comparison to everyone else beforehand. Even still cumanis horse won well enough lto and makes his handicap bow today and the extra furlong I can only see suiting even more today, clear chance for another win on the track.

Deauv
3.45 Coastal Path 4/5 var bog 15 pts Run lto in the gold cup when blatently he didnt stay, travelled well enough but just didnt see out the trip against the mighty force of yeats and slightly less mighty of geordieland. However prior to that had showed his undoubted class, was unbeaten in 6 starts and all of them were pretty comfortable wins and I believe he can show that class today, some interesting rivals from here come over for that race but Im not sure if a horse liek mad rush is quite in this ones leeague myself.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 6832pts
Returned 7100.65pts
P/L +268.65
Yield +3.92%
Strike rate 34.98% (141/403)

Sails
6.05 Derbaas 4/1 var bog 15 pts Stayed on well on debut over 7f, form of that race quite good, winner ran well in group 2 and won listed race, whispering angel too has won since, then won at asc. when still green but quietly impressive, third second since but fourth has won and fifth ran good best horse very close when second. Clearly well thought of and extra furlong shouldnt really be a problem.

San
2.05 Aakef 9/2 lad 15 pts I dont think nurserys were the aim for this one, second on debut to now 94 rated horse, considered good enough to run at royal asc and then won lto at yarm over 6f to break maiden and did it well enough, brought back to 5f but stiffish 5f at that and whilst I think he may be better over slightly further in time, he looks interesting enough in a nursery and clearly they think he has enough speed for this race.

3.55 Summers Target 13/8 var bog 15 pts Only one run but a good one at that, came second in an asc. race I talked about earlier behind derbaas and that race working out. Interestingly meehan put it in that asc race which he had won previously the year before through the good city leader who went onto be a group 1 winner and i often think thats significant suggesting some ability has already been shown and looks the stand out with the benefit of a run.

Wolv
8.20 Adorabella 9/4 avr bog 15 pts King does well with his string on the flat and this bolted up lto and is capable of overcoming penalty, two runs back stayed on really strongly over 10f and when moved up lto won so so easily and really did give the impression she could follow up and this seems fair opportunity to do so on a surface she can handle.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 6892pts
Returned 7100.65pts
P/L +208.65
Yield +3.03%
Strike rate 34.64% (141/407)

Nothing yesterday

Rip 3.50 Barney McGrew 16/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pys e.w Hopefully there wont be any more non runners. This one I have backed before and with success at times, he is normally a very good cruiser into his races at his best and that is such an advantage especially in these big field handicaps. His last run was a bit disappointing because he had a genuine chance in the stewards cup but simply found himself too far back to casue any trouble. Prior to that though he ran on really strongly over 5f against some decent handicappers up north and you only have to go back a start or two to when he won well at newc over 6f, indeed beating some of these and he seems a decent price to do so again (same price here as he was to win the stewards cup), middle draw gives him options for his customary late charge.

San
2.35 The Cheka 10/3 var 15 pts. So so impressive on debut, won by 10lengths in front of a horse that won afterwards. Fancied to do so as well that day and the other impressive thing was that it came at a time when the stable had gone ages without a winner and that just adds to the victory for these potentially high class horse. Stepping up in class today but deserves to do so and whilst there are some other nice types in here, the cheka on visual impressions sets the standard for me and if you use a line through one of the horses it thrashed by 20+ lengths at asc, it has the beating of city of freedom as that same horse lost by only half that disatance when they met.

Bath
7.15 Hall Hee 4/1 var bog 15 pts A lot of support for expresso star here but this one too is a very interesting one in a nice looking maiden by the satndards of the track. Hall Hee was eye catching on debut, ran onto be third amongst fair types like desert chill, regal best and indeed the fourth who won afterwards. Then he ran in a hot race at hq over further on softish ground which i dont think were completely ideal despite tarvelling reasonably well on it for most of the race, he faded late to be sixth, however that has turned out to be a fair race, first three all won since and returning to better ground today, down in trip to which should help especially given the way he travels makes him fairly interesting for this nicely related horse.

Ches
2.50 Speed Gifted 6/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w Tricky type but equally the class act here and I just wonder whether chester might just bring the best out of him, of course that is some if but it does happen from time to time and besides he is the class act here despite his quirks. Showed class last year when winning the melrose and this season without winning has ran well in a better grade then this, thats shown by the fact he hasnt been out of the top 5 in a listed and then two group 2 races and that does set him apart from these. Another thing is that his presence has got most of these out of the handciap and whilst there are some improvers in here, they may just get found out at this level. Could have a good chance if taking to the track, probably dropped in from stall 13.

[MidasTouch]

Hi Woody

I don't know if you saw the 8:20 at Wolverhampton, like you I was on Adorrabella? Groan Ha-Ha

What on earth was Spencer doing he left him out the back for 80% of the race and never put it into the race with a chance at all. One of them the horse or the jockey was asleep and I know where my blame lies?

MidasTouch

[WoodyTHFC]

Originally Posted by MidasTouch

Hi Woody

I don't know if you saw the 8:20 at Wolverhampton, like you I was on Adorrabella? Groan Ha-Ha

What on earth was Spencer doing he left him out the back for 80% of the race and never put it into the race with a chance at all. One of them the horse or the jockey was asleep and I know where my blame lies?

MidasTouch

Thats the way it goes unfortunately. The thing that was slightly annoying about that was the complete lack of pace (9 secs slower than standard), as soon as that happened it was always going to be hard for the hold up horses including Adorrabella in that race. Possibly given this ones dominance on paper over some of her rivals, he could have altered the extreme hold up tactics and actually grabbed the initiative himself but jockeys dont always show initiative as we all know. Anyway as I said thats the way it goes.

Staked 6952pts
Returned 7175.65pts
P/L +223.65
Yield +3.21%
Strike rate 34.54% (142/411)

Folk
2.10 Frank Street 7/4 var bog 15 pts Has two runs so far and seemed to progress nicely from the first run to the second an any further improvement should make it pretty tough to beat. second run in particular was pretty good, pushed a nice beckett horse very close that day before just going down and seemed to suggest that was cpable of winning a maiden. Moved back to 5f which I dont see as a huge problem especially given his relation to the stables useful Judd Street whos also a sprinter.

Muss
4.20 Ishetoo 6/1 lad 7.5 pts e.w Been a good solid horse this one, progressed really well last season and has been able to maintain that form this year if not slightly improve on it. Has also proved effective at 6f as well as 5f and on evidence of last run that would suggest 5f on a speedy track might not be completely ideal but you only need to go back a couple of runs to some good runs at 5f especially the one at york behind masta plasta that reads very well and should have very solid e.w claims at least.

Curr
4.15 Again 13/8 var bog 15 pts Only 8th on debut but has improved a lot since then, won well afterwards and then lto produced a very good performance on heavy ground, showing she has stamina aplenty as she saw out what is a testing trip for a two year old really well. Stable won a 2 year old group 1 last week with Bushranger in the coolmore colours and may just have another good one here who could be set for big things including group 1 today.

4.45 Tis Mighty 18/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Followed this one a few times and I just wonder whether the big field may just suit his late rattle today. I felt he was decently handicapped on the evidence of a couple of runs last season and has consistently run well all year but without delivering the goods, I think a mile is the shortest he wants to go, constantly he runs on really well over a mile and indeed has been tried over a touch further. The bit of cut I think may too suit as he has performed well with a bit of cut before. Zero tolerance and Central Station seem the biggest danger to me.

5.15 Masta Plasta 7/4 var bog 15 pts Speed speed and more speed. Thats why I felt 6f lto was the wrong move and sure enough he faded in the last furlong. Admittedly that was on heavy ground too which would have blunted his speed a bit too. However back at 5f today I think they may struggle to catch him, he appears to be right back to his 3 year old royal asc. (york) winning form this year and hsi effort in good a couple of starts back show his ability and that was even more impressive considering he missed the break and that he was compromised by dandy man that day.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 7027pts
Returned 7468.15pts
P/L +441.15
Yield +6.27%
Strike rate 34.86% (145/416)

Great day yesterday after a sticky month.

Kem
3.30 Mystery Star 10/1 sky 7.5 pts e.w Laughable that the post had this forecast at 20/1 at one stage. Ok theres a couple of nice ones in here but 3 year olds in handicaps at this time of the year often do well and it wouldnt surprise me if the two in this race, this one and goodlight startlight figure prominently at the end. This one has some reallt solid looking runs to her name this season and names that suggest she might not be too badly handicapped at all, I look at the run just behind collection and mystery star in particular and they read so well, I thought so at the time and I think that even more now. Two runs back travelled quite well over further before not getting home, lto was a poor run and that needs to be forgiven but he could never get into the race that day, returning to the a/w today really could help, he won his maiden well on the a/w and the horse he beat has turned into a grade 1 winner in the states no less. Certainly was never going to be 20/1.

4.30 High Heeled 11/10 var bog 15 pts Promising horse from hills, second on debut behind rainbow view no less and that form has worked out really well from the two horses nearest her that day, rainbow view I saw at hq produce the most impressive two year performance so far this season after that, indeed beat those group horses more than she beat this one and the third won afterwards beating a well regarded cecil horse and then after that won a listed race. If High Heeled went into this race on the back of her first race she would be long odds on imo, however one has to mention she performed a bit disappointingly afterwards only sixth in a race she ought have won really. However that can happen with such inexperienced horses, I think the extra furlong should help as she has stayed on well in both her races so far, stall one isnt brilliant but hopefully hills can get a good enough position to see this one show her class over these.

5.30 Checkow 10/3 var bog 15 pts Big big hopes for this one, was in the derby for a long time and is still in the leger, first run explains that a bit, was third that day but so many around him that day have gone onto show their considerable class 1,2,5,6 are all at least 90 rated and sometimes in the 100, afterwards won a maiden with reasonable ease and then was hot fav for handicap at don over shorter but never travelled that well and was beaten into fourth, half staying on at the end. The move up in trip today I certainly see as suiting, has been a bit outpaced over 10f so moving up to 10f should suit and I just wonder whether that, also a move to the a.w could let it show its class, whos knows what could happen after that.

Ling
4.40 Arabian Spirit 11/4 var bog 15 pts Progressed nicely this season, only won once but a host of good runs, run two starts back was pretty good, pushed blue sky basin and that one has gone onto better things and is now rated in the 100s after winning since, arabian spirit only mid 80s, lto was given too much to do unquestionably by ryan moore but hopefully that wont be the case today with hughes on board.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 7087pts
Returned 7505.65pts
P/L +418.65
Yield +5.91%
Strike rate 34.76% (146/420)

Gre Lei
8.50 Wogans Sister 13/2 sky 7.5 pts e.w This one suddenly sound some form a couple of starts ago, won twice back to back and did so pretty impressively at that level. Noticeably it was claimed by Elsworth during those wins. After that it was moved up in trip and for me was a non stayer, it travelled well in that race a couple of furlongs left along with the eventual winner but whereas the winner scooted clear, this one weakened badly and ended up third. Moved back down to a winning trip of 10f, she is more interesting today. She has risen in the handicap since her wins and there is the danger that may have found her out but her run lto encourages and back at this trip in a race where she will be up there and possibly able to dominate, she is the pick.

Sails
2.10 Bouvardia 8/13 bet3 bog 15 pts Odds on now but that doesnt surprise me at all. Been quite a bit of hype about it and made a favourable impression on debut. I was there that day at hq and she ran very well. Travelled quite well before taking it up a furlong out only to be just defeated near the line by a horse who had form behind rainbow view and also since has gone out and won a listed race. Today she is on better ground which I think should suit and whilst some may think the odds are skinny which some unknowns in the race, I would be surprised if there is one as good as this one.

3.45 Intense 2/1 bet3 bog 15 pts Even more unknowns in this race than the previous race I talked about. However from what has been shown, this one arguably sets the standard although charltons horse may come close to that. This one was second on debut at glorious goodwood which in itself says a bit. She stayed on eyecatchingly that day having dwelt to start with and on that evidence should enjoy extra furlong. Form of that race has been a bit mixed with some winners and also a few disappointments but she definitely looked one to take right from it and side with on her next start which is what Im doing.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 7132pts
Returned 7550.65pts
P/L +418.65
Yield +5.87%
Strike rate 34.75% (147/423)

Ling
4.20 Mystery Star 25/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Same as Mon. On Mon things just didnt work out whatsoever, the time may indicate it was slightly quicker than standard but that doesnt say it all, it was very stop start and from the back with another horse constantly swaying into him he could never get competitive, by the time he came off the final bend he was already a good 10 lengths down and he ended up with some late progress into midfield. I go back to its good runs when giving weight and only just behind the likes of Collection, Indian Days and even its a/w debut win when he beat a future Grade 1 winner and still think it warrents some major respect. Shouldnt be 25/1 in my book with formlines like that.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 7147pts
Returned 7605.03pts
P/L +458.03
Yield +6.4%
Strike rate 34.9% (148/424)

Don
2.00 Perks 5/4 var 15 pts. Just one for me today in a three runner race now but i do like the progressive nature of Perks. I was very impressed when he routed a handicap field over a mile at don. earlier in the season and then he held solid if not really winning field in some big field handicaps after that. However I do feel that when he gets his ideal conditions (soft), he is a different horse and that combined with the step up in trip resulted in a very impressive win lto, indeed that win was more impressive in some ways than the group win of multidimensional on the same day, certainly from a time perspective. Flying clarets should lead them here and although at her best she likes it soft, I think the godolphin horse is more of a danger but saying that lto he was a bit lacklustre which doesnt encourage and besides in Perks he is facing a nice progressive horse at this trip and in softer ground and he could well be hard to beat.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 7162pts
Returned 7638.78pts
P/L +476.78
Yield +6.65%
Strike rate 35.05% (149/425)

Don
2.35 Damien 13/2 boy bog 7.5 pts e.w Is bigger but not with 4 places on offer and besides by doing bog it could drift to a bigger price anyway. Just the two runs to his name but two good ones, fto it managed to win which often is noteworthy for hills. Then it was put into another big sales race where he raced well for a very inexperienced horse before finishing fourth. It has run on ground this soft before but interestingly the jockey suggested after its first win that a bit of cut in the ground would help and he is the selection in this big field race.

San
3.30 Atlantic Sport 7/2 spo 15 pts Followed this horse this season and mixed fortunes so far. Won fto a pretty cosily but then having travelled so well, he failed to pick up and was only second although that wasnt too bad a win under a penalty, his latest run so him come third in a decent looking race at good. and possibly he didnt quite see out the trip as well as he suggested. Moved down in trip today which I think will suit and on softer ground which whilst he is unproven on I have a feeling may not be a huge hindrance, indeed after his 'flop' at don. last season it was suggested he needed slower ground. Still entered in a group 1 which suggests high hopes still.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 7192pts
Returned 7725.97pts
P/L +533.97
Yield +7.42%
Strike rate 35.36% (151/427)

Don
1.35 Danehill Destiny 4/1 var bog 15 pts Created a really good impression on her first two starts, won nicely at hq and then at winds beat the useful prolific and shryl, remember when beating the future group winner prolific, she beat him only getting 2 pounds due to a penalty for her first win. Then things went badly wrong at asc but she had a break and came back with a good run over 6f lto but a run where I thought she flattened out towards the end, she travelled well that day but couldnt really go on from that and ended fourth. Im interested in the drop back to 5f as I half think she was found out by the stiff 6f lto, Im also interested in her running on soft ground as her trainer has often said she will be better with some cut.

2.05 Pippa Greene 16/1 cor 7.5 pts e.w Slight doubt about the extended trip here but for me if he gets it he is a major player here. Progressive last year with some nice wins including on soft and after a couple of poor runs, bounced back to form with a real late charge over 12f at asc. Run lto he could never really get in the race, just plugging on actually in the style of a horse who maybe suited by further so there is encouragement from that point of view and only 4 pounds higher than that good asc. win.

2.40 Royal and Regal 3/1 var 15 pts Main two dominate and Im keen to take the o'brien horse on as although he is undoubtedly talented, I also think he is a bit tricky whereas this one generally is more consistent. Saying that though he does have a poorish run lto to forgive but I think that was a messy race with all kinds of horses running on different parts of the track and Im not sure how literal to take that form, also possibly may not have been quite fit for that although he does go well fresh so Im not totally sure on that. However if you go back to form prior to that it reads very well, lots of solid and good runs by either winning or being placed, likes soft ground too and indeed probably better on it despite run in yorkshire cup this year which was on quicker when just lost to geordieland. Solid claims.

4.55 King Olav 9/2 bet3 bog 15 pts Just two runs but they showed promise. First run he was third behind two well regarded horses at san. indeed the winner despite flopping after that is very well thought of, still a bit green that day but showing talent for sure. After that won his maiden on the a.w and remained very green and indeed looked a bit awkward but he still won a quite nicely. Hasnt run on ground this soft but it has been reported that he needs come cut and a galloping track after his lto so if thats the case then he should have decent claims here, also three year old in handicap at this time of year I like.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 7252pts
Returned 7725.97pts
P/L +473.97
Yield +6.53%
Strike rate 35.03% (151/431)

Loads of fancies today, more staked on the group 1s.

Don
1.35 Zacinto 13/8 var bog 15 pts Looks potentially a real class act here. Absolutely bolted up on his only start and whilst it may well be true that he beat little that day, the style of his win could not not have been more impressive and he gave the manner of a horse who looks set for a step up in class. Ground obviously a question mark as it is for a few of these but you would think that trainer would have some idea and he hasnt pulled it out or anything and one thing it has shown already is that it clearly gets the trip which will be essential today.

2.05 Buachaill Dona 16/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w So many I considered, Chief Editor, Fullandby, Tamagin esp. but gone for this one. Seen mainly as a good ground horse but that changed two starts back with a really classy win on officially good to soft but in truth it may have been a tad slower than that still. Was away from the main action that day and yet still won and stayed on strongly to do so. Lto didnt quite see out the 6f and this middle trip may just turn out to be ideal. Middle draw gives options with a couple of pacy ones near him, lippocco, smart's horse although there is a lot of pace a bit higher with tamagin, futb etc.

2.35 African Rose 4/1 var 10 pts e.w I actually looked at the godolphin horse for a while as it travelled surprsingly well lto on softer before surprisingly fading for a horse who stays further, however I like the look of this one who certianly didnt fade late on lto. Ran a cracker on softer over 1/2 furlong more than this and ended up second behind the best sprinter around and ahead of many of these. His profile suggests he likes this ground and actually is one who stays further and hence the move of the race from hay to don. I think may help him get up in the last furlong here unlike poss. the slightly quicker track. Hopefully by doing e.w can be in the three although have a slight feeling it could find one too speedy.

3.10 Look Here 7/2 var bog 20 pts Top Lock 14/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Conduit was my main fancy for this for ages but I have left him due to the ground. Look Here on the other hand I think will like the ground. On debut beat dr fremantle in a maiden on gd-sft but the time suggests it may have been even softer, trainer certainly felt cut in the ground is a help so should like the ground, things didnt work out at ling after that but she put that right in impressive fashion in the oaks. Won very nicely that day. It was a strange oaks as they went too quick up front, inc. many of the principals and hence some of their form may be a bit questionable, ie. lush lashes was a non stayer that day due to that, however what look here did was survive this massive test, still managing to travel before bounding clear and making subsequent ire. oaks winner moonstone, gives substance to the form, look a bit average and very one paced. Indeed the style of that win to me suggested a possibly leger horse staright away. She looks a real class act here and with the trainer reporting her to work well now after a setback she is the main selcetion. Top Lock I dont think is quite top class but what he is is a very solid horse who doesnt win much but has lots of creditible runs in major races incl. asc. and lto when the slow pace didnt help. However his most interesting race was the german derby, stayed on well that day on really testing ground in the manner of a leger horse to be third, top two are good horses indeed winner has since won twice although one of those wins was awarded afterwards. Not perhpas the classiest but a solid type who handles the ground and has place prospects at least, look here the main bet.

3.45 Major Cadeaux 13/8 var bog 15 pts Got a bit of class in comparison to some of these, run pretty well over a mile in group races last two starts but before that had been a group 2 and 3 winner. 7f is the shortest he wants to go seemingly but he is more than capable at this distance indeed a mile possibly stretches him, likes the ground a lot too with soem good wins on softer ground.

4.15 Moonquake 5/1 var 7.5 pts e.w The ground is a bit of a question mark here, has won on good - soft but not on ground quite this soft however if he takes his chances you would think he could handle that bit more cut and besides it could start to dry up a bit by then. Besides I like this ones staying profile, stayed on well over shorter a ches. against a hills horse who has a formline with the jarvis horse although that one has improved in the interim period, run lto also offers real hope when staying well at asc. in what normally is a typically hot race.

5.25 Pride of Nation 20/1 lad 7.5 pts e.w I like virtual but would prefer him at 7f so going for this one at a stand out price, basically on the ground, likes it soft undoubtedly and a much better horse when he gets that ground, recent runs have been poor but they have been on ground too quick and for me not worth running him over, on soft ground he is a classy act with a group win to his name on ground with some cut and mark has now slipped somewhat due to poor runs on unsatisfactory ground.

Curr
Fancy septimus in the big one here but not going in at short price, in 3.05 though, Katiyra 4/6 bog 15 pts. Very well thought of indeed went to the oaks as a warmish order before finishing third, disappointed then in ire. oaks but returned to form in good style after that lto in listed race, proving she can handle testing ground very well and also that she possibly is at her best at a trip around 10f like today as the 12f may stetch her, looks the class act here.

GL
3.50 Throne of Power 10/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Giving a horse I like and who reportedly whenever seen in the paddock seems always to be a standout, another go with hope first time visor could sharpen him up along with return to a/w. Nice first win when very well backed on a/w before being unlucky at hq handicap, put that right with really good win over firestreak at 7f, a horse who now is rated higher than throne of power, wouldnt rea