WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 720 pts
Returned 705.19pts
P/L -14.81
Yield -2.05%
Strike rate 30% (15/50)

A blank yesterday.

Newb
1.40 Elmaleeha 15 pts 15/8 pp For me has the best form of these with its second on its only run behind Infalliable which now reads very well and she ran on quite well that day indicating the extra trip will be no problem at all, indeed it should suit, oaks entries. There is always the chance that some of the fellow other unexposed types will emerge but this one already sets a good standard for good connections and could be hard to beat.

2.10 Almoutaz 5 pts 40 betf 5 pts 11 to place Toughish handicap and at a price this one could run quite well. Hills' have not really been winning of late but at the same time they are running reasonably well and this one has had the three runs to get his 84 mark, first two starts it was fourth in what was a decent race and then fifth before winning lto at HQ. The form of that last run has had the odd boost and winner come from it or at least places. Increased trip I think will help although it may need to settle better for it to do so but with more experience and field he could well do so.

4.55 Houghton 15 pts 10/3 var Difficult race to call with limited pieces of form and unlike say the 1.40 there is not a stand out piece of form. However any Stoute horse in these races have to earn a certain amount of respect, he has won this race in the past with a horse that went onto win a group 1 and the traditiocal coolmore colours are interesting in stoute's yard. The form on its only run was not that great but just looking at the entries, dante/derby, clearly this is one that should and is expected to improve at 3 and if it was to have any considerations of those races it needs to be winning this.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 760 pts
Returned 705.19pts
P/L -54.81
Yield -7.21%
Strike rate 28.3% (15/53)

Thir
3.50 Wi Dud evens bet 3 bog 15 pts Useful two year old and sprinting undoubtedly looks this ones game. Last season it had one very good effott in the nunthorpe and looked to have retained all of its blistering ability when a notable third in a decent race at doncaster when it didnt get the clearest passage up the rail. The possible improver, Utmost Respect is the danger.

5.00 Dorn dancer 5/1 boy bog 7.5 pts e.w Backed this both times first up this season when it got two e.w places, naturally didnt back it when it won lto in the week at 5f in good style. It likes a come from behind style but even granted for that it was impressive in the way it picked up lto form a seemingly impossible passage, certainly a trouble free one, at 6f its still effective and although it faces one of its early season conquerers, they may have blown their copybook since, every chance of being in the 4 at least.

Newb
2.15 Zaham 7/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w Like this horse a lot, a really gutsy horse who sticks its neck and always tries his best and last year (backed it every time I think) improved at a rate of knots in some good handicaps and then listed winner before running with lots of credit in group 3s including behind the much talked of Ask. Things went wrong on its reappearance so best to probably ignore that, gelded interestingly now(would be very interesting over hurdles/fences in time) but best on figures in the race and the al maktoum connections seem to target this race.

2.50 Zaahid 7/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Proponent 16/1 var 5 pts e.w Zaahid improved towards end of last year including on every eye catching win from very difficult position, much fancied for lincoln before missing cut and ended up in spring mile and ran respectably as fav. in fourth, not really much better than that. Conditions no problem today and with hills finding form yesterday respected. Proponent was once thought of as a derby horse and looked smart as a two year old, had troubles at 3 but ultimately seemed suited to smaller trip, run behind pipedreamer was good and travelled very well that day before not quite getting home, strong pace in big field should suit today and yard possibly coming into form.

3.25 Muthabara 5/2 var 15 pts Much talked of for 1000 Guineas after promising wins last year when it showed it could handle a bit of cut, listed win lto from difficult position was pretty impressive. Reportedly working very well and whilst guineas favouritsm seemed slightly premature on what it actually had achieved, it still is a promising horse who should if it has Guineas hopes go well.

4.00 Confront 13/8 sj bog 15 pts Made an encouarging debut but its win over Stimulation lto looked impressive at the time and now looks even better, Stoute who should only improve form that, can handle a bit of cut and some of the rivals have questions, notably Sir Gerry whos York win worked out poorly and has doubts over extended trip.

4.30 Sadlers Kingdom 4/1 7.5 pts e.w Fahey runners in handicap always merit a closer look and this one looks as though it has been waiting for a much needed increase in trip. He has had the prep race so to speak and 2m looks much needed for a horse who looks a stayer, ground should be ideal, good claimer on board and market support very interesting.

5.05 Ezdiyaad 7/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Watched this one win at hq last year and sprang a bit of a shock that day @ 20/1 but did it quite impressively, showed it could handle cut that day and the race actually seemed to work out quite well. After that ran pretty good race again to place and on what I think could be a big day for al maktoum, this one should have good e.w claims at least.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 890 pts
Returned 921.44pts
P/L +31.44
Yield +3.53%
Strike rate 32.81% (21/64)

Great Leighs - dont have a clue how it will ride but there are a couple I fancy so still playing

2.10 Pixie's Blue 5/2 var bog 15 pts Represents the red hot Gosden yard and sets a pretty solid level of form, ok possibly more exposed than some others in here in the terms she bar one other has ran the most but amongst those runs were a couple of seconds, one to the decent Festoso. She had one a/w run at kem. when probably didnt get home at 7f so 6f maybe more adequate although that is not cast iron. Solid claims.

2.40 Esteem Machine 11/10 var bog 15 pts Improved quite a lot in the back end of last season and made encouraging second start on the a/w this season when a good second in a better race than this. Has to give weight all round but has earned that through his form, 6f seems about ok, certainly ran some good races at that distance in the past and if you were being ultra critical did not quite see it out lto when a good second. Can go one better today.

3.50 Rapid City 10/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Reasonably interesting horse. Before a huge lay off (must have been problems) last season it had good pieces of form. On the a/w had a couple of nice wins, an unlucky second and another second to Mighty in a handicap and he went onto much better things and was consisitently group placed by the end of the season. Even his last turf run was good over an inadequate mile when he stayed on and on the wrong side of the track in a hot race. Made his reappearance on a/w and ran ok, it was a slightly messy race as the winner who has won and ran very well since set slowish pace which meant that this one at the back could never get into it really and he just plugged on past one or two at the end. Will be a lot sharper for that today and can go well, may still be well handicapped.

4.20 Escape Route 9/4 betd 15 pts Again in form Gosden yard. Escape Route has handled the a/w/dirt/turf before and has put up some fair efforts. Last season had one nice win at Goodwood and even in Dubai this year ran some dcent races, often staying on over shorter, indeed stayed on a bit in the lincoln into fifth so he is hinting that 10f maybe actually could well suit, has got form over further than a mile and orders huge respect for such a red hot stable particularly in the top races at the moment.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 950 pts
Returned 1033.94pts
P/L +83.94
Yield +8.79%
Strike rate 35.29% (24/68)

Will come back with prices in the morning.
Pont
3.10 Knot in Wood 7.5 pts e.w Not easy to be top weight in any handicap but especially one that looks as competitive as this one. However this one has earned that status with some good performances last year, one fantastic win in similar conditions when it romped home, a good third in the stewards cup and even when upped in class it ran with enough credit in group/listed races. Should be sharp after a couple of runs now including a second lto for which although the winner lost lto, the two beaten horses have run well out of since, useful claimer on board for a yard doing reasonably, no better than that and well capable of a place at the minimum.

Wind
6.25 The Which Doctor 7.5 pts e.w Typically a difficult early season 3 year old handicap to read with a few in here who most likely will be better than there current mark come the end of the season. The Stoute and Butler pair fall into that bracket but so quite possibly does this one who ran a cracker on debut when not really fancied to be second and then won on the a/w afterwards in pretty comfortable style. The second that day couldnt win afterwards but a couple down the field that day have won since and provided a slight boost to that form, step up in trip does not seem to be a real issue and the stable are in decent form.

6.55 Katimont 15 pts I liked the way this one eventually knuckled down on debut when having been a bit green she started to make some nice progress before eventually being second which was an encoraging debut. She was then perhaps slightly disappointing after that when fourth which wasnt a bad run at all but not really a huge improvement on her first run. However Im slightly willing to forgive her for that, on the basis of her first run and being by Montjeu I dont see the added distance a problem at all, the yard is starting to hit some form and its worth noting that the perhaps more fancied Diamond Royal may have ran the touted Laughter close on debut but the form of those around her that day has been very disappointing (2/7 and 11/10 losers since.)

7.25 French Riviera 15 pts Only one visual piece of evidence to go on but on that piece he was an encouraging second on debut, having been hampered, he stayed on quite well over a mile. Going on that run and being by Montjeu the added trip today should suit and the entries speak highly for this Stoute colt, dante/derbies. The traditional coolmore connections are also quite noteworthy and whilst there could well be one in there to emerge , it is easy to see why this one will be the fav.

7.55 Heritage Coast 15 pts Another Stoute horse. Three runs so far to get the 73 handicap mark possibly maybe fair although slightly difficult to read. All three runs have showed elements of promise, first up fourth with two decent types filling the first two places (have been running in group races since), second run it bumped into a horse who has since been placed in listed events and lto she was second clear of the rest but slightly disappointingly ran out of it late, Im no breeding expect but on what I know I think the step up trip will help although last run does put some doubt in my mind but should give a good account of herself.

[WoodyTHFC]

Knot in Wood 11/2 sj bog
The Which Doctor 8/1 betfr
katimont 9/2 betfr
french riviera 5/6 var bog
heritage coast 11/4 var.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 1025 pts
Returned 1138.94pts
P/L +113.94
Yield +11.11%
Strike rate 35.61% (26/73)

Nott

2.20 Tilt 7.5 pts e.w Might not be as prominent in the market as others and not easy to win with at all, only 1 win but has a string of good solid runs in decent handicaps last year behind or at times ahead of rivals who have boosted elements of the form, such as run first time up last year (goes well fresh), thirds at newc. good and hayd. Run lto last season was probably one run too many. Goes in various conditions, came from behind style is difficult to win with and stable could be in better form last week or so but should not be overlooked especially e.w at a price.

2.55 Heaven Knows 7.5 pts e.w Last year was progressing quite nicely towards the back end of the season, nice win at newb for example showing a bit of cut seems to help its chances, seemed to appreciate the trip too, however first time up this year was third and a bit lacklustre, eradicate ahead of it, however judging by form last season, it needed races to get going and it may have just needed it, bigger field should help, slight concern over trainers form despite winner the other day. Tears of a Clown 7.5 pts e.w Bigger price but should not be ignored. Often likes to come late so a strong pace should suit and pieces of his form read quite well, fast closing second behind emerald wilderness (shows can handle it a bit quicker too), won at asc on softer and horses he beat have performed wll in listed contests (winning or second) and the second that day got 2 and a half lengths behind an eased Curlin, last two runs last year could not get into race with come from behind style at hay and placed at asc, even if those form lines slightly flatter him he could well be too big, e.w

[WoodyTHFC]

Tilt 14/1 var
Heaven Knows 11/2 bet3 bog
Tears Of A Clown 12/1 wh.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 1070 pts
Returned 1190.5025pts
P/L +120.5025
Yield +11.26%
Strike rate 36.8461% (28/76)

Wolv
2.15 Skadrak 4/5 15 pts Finally set to make its second start. On debut good effort as Ive spoken about before behind Atlantic Sport who looks a nice prospect even though he didnt quite boost the form as much as I thought he would in a group 2 afterwards. Going back to that first run he was one of three in line at the finish with the rest well beaten and yet the fourth, fifth and sixth have boosted that form by winning since. The entries say it all about how the horse is fancied, guineas, st james palace and i expect he will be tough to beat. Us pedigree suggests a/w wont be a huge problem and after all why would it be risked on that surface if new trainer Meehan didnt think it was worth it. Slugger O Toole was quite eyecatching last week but he has bumped into one here.

San
1.50 Ask 8/11 bet3 bog 15 pts for me is the best and classy horse in the race and he looks the typical stoute older horse improver as he did last year in a disrupted campaign with two wins and a very frustrating and slightly unlucky second in the Can. int. If this race was at 12f I would really fancy him, the lesser trip is a bit of a concern because whilst it was not paceless at all last season, it shaped more like a 12f horse as the season went on and there is a concern that if this turns tactical he could be done for a turn of foot but im struggling to find what to beat him with and he might just have the class to win whatever.

3.35 Dar Re Mi 11/10 bet3 bog 15 pts probably not much of a betting race with not much to go on and with a short fav but on what has been shown so far of these and the entries that suggest better is expected, it looks the stand out pick. Put up quite a nice win on debut and there have been a couple of winners from that race, especially the nice Candy horse who won next time beating the potentially useful Melodramatic. The extra distance looks beneficial, ground wont be an issue and trainer doing very well.

4.10 Captain Webb 6/4 boy bog 15 pts Three out of three so far for this Johnston horse and he can go in under the penalty today. This looks a much hotter race than lto but the victory was one of the easiest victories you will ever see, 20 lengths and could have been 30 lengths. That followed a couple of nice early wins as well and he looks continually to be improving, he is ahead of the handicapper here but he might be even better than a handicaps the direction he is heading and could be set for pattern company soon if he continues this progress and if he is, then he should be expected really to take this.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 1130 pts
Returned 1247.91pts
P/L +117.91
Yield +10.43%
Strike rate 37.5% (30/80)

Rip
5.55 Raincoat 15 pts Some nice pieces of form, was second when well beaten by authorized in the dante and also third in a slowly run race at goodwood in a group 3, has also won twice first time out so seems to go well fresh, things didnt work out in leger but even so looks the pick of these on form, ground ideal and trainer has started the season very well.

Leic
3.50 Al Qasi 15 pts Put up a very nice win as a 3 year old at asc. and looked set for better things and has stepped up into a group performer, a couple of places in group 2s and a group 3 winner, not really a miler and at 6f often stays on so 7f looks probably its ideal trip, trainer made a good start to the season early on (bit lacking last week or so) and ground with a little bit of cut would be no problem at all.

4.25 Harry the Hawk 15 pts bids for a hat trick today and despite four pounds rise from lto looks capable of doing so. Having won at newc last start 07, he won first time up this season, when he may have been lucky to beat Blue Spinnaker but still did so and with that horse winning since and the fourth in great style that looks a pretty hot race and with similar conditions today, he could well defy four pound rise.

Wont bet on 5.00 but Tarten Bearer is expected to win and going onto much better things like his brother, golan did.

San
3.55 Medicine Path 15 pts Impressed with this one lto, Dont panic was much fancied stepping up in class but this one proved too good and looks as though he is building on his promised as a two year old for PCH. At 2 it had some good form in patches, placed in group 2 and 1 (behind authorized.) Things didnt work out at 3 but won at nott at the end of 2007 and did so again on a/w impressively in listed contest before win at donc. Looks capable of stepping up into group 2 level here with some other rivals having a few question marks (Major Cadeux trip, Rob Roy sharpness and also trip)

4.30 Centennial 15 pts Attracted some support for the derby and had some good pieces of form at 2. Third to stablemate Ravens Pass on debut before two nice wins on quick ground and then second to the potentially nice and Peeping Fawn related, Thewayyouare lto. Connections obviously feel the horse will stay strongly in time with derby entires and therefore should have strong claims at todays increased trip with trainer, Gosden continuing to prove he is one of the best trainers around. whitcombe Minister maybe the best e.w alternative.

[WoodyTHFC]

Raincoat 8/11 var bog
Al Qasi 11/10 var
Harry the Hawk 5/4 var
Medicine Path 17/10 spo
Centennial 5/4 var

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 1205 pts
Returned 1310.29pts
P/L +105.29
Yield +8.73%
Strike rate 37.6% (32/85)

Bright
2.10 Brenin Taran 15 pts Could be short but undoubtedly made an encouraging debut at hq. Slowly into stride and without the clearest of runs he finished a reasonably eyecatching fourth, I doubt if he would have been good enough that day to win behind the possible Royal Ascot set winner but maybe could have gained second and that after all was a class 3 event at hq, this is a class 5 maiden at brighton and there will probably be one or two in their certain to improve and run well this one sets the standard of those that have run.

Gorw
3.30 Tis Mighty 15 pts Put this up in the ire lincoln only to win it with my second choice at 25/1 but this one still ran well for a while in that race and ran well again after that in a listed race for which the winner has boosted the form and in some style. Form before that last season reads quite well in a variety of conditions, second to redstone dancer and ahead of many colours who has form just behind the group 1 winning sun classique. Mark three pounds lower than lto and conditions set for a bold run.

Long
2.45 Proviso 15 pts Could be quite short but at 2 looked really good prospect, won on debut and then beat what was the then decent, Laureldean Gale before Godolphin got her, possibly then a touch unlucky in group 1 at asc as listen probably got first run on her and it proved crucial but even still it was an encouraging run, increased trip will suit, handles cut and in very good hands.

3.20 Duke of Marmalade 15 pts Ground could be an issue if very soft, french descriptions can be a bit false at times and whilst this one can go on soft as he proved lto at asc. he is possibly better on quicker ground. Even so I think this horse could thrive this season at todays sort of trip, last season ran consistently well so often without winning, solid Guineas' runs, St James Palace, Queen Elizabeth and also at 10f in champion stakes (ire) and juddmonte. As the season went on it looked more and more as though it needed more than a mile and even when tried at 10f it was staying on and yet O'Brien ran him at a mile at asc. just to be a pacemaker on its last start which didnt work for him and having been one paced at the vital moment, the horse ran on to be a respectable third but what might have been if targetted at the top 10f races at that stage of the season? Anna Pavlova likes soft ground and whilst possibly a touch outclassed, she could be a bigger price horse to run well.

Nav
5.00 Maryellen's Spirit 15 pts Won well on debut and the horse behind her that day was Curtain Call, subsequent group 2 winner, who came quite close to New Approach as a 2 year old and now with Cumani looks a real derby horse. On its second start was well beaten but that was by Savethisdnaceforme who I think is a 1000 Guineas possible and arguably O'Brien's no.1 for that race. Clearly handles cut, the trainer has started the season well and even without the benefit of a run should be able to go quite well.

[WoodyTHFC]

brenin taran 10/11 bet3 bog
tis mighty 9/2 var 7.5 pts e.w
proviso 4/7 var
duke of marmalade 10/3 spo
maryellens spirit 2/1 var bog

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 1280 pts Returned 1391.23pts P/L +111.23 Yield +8.69% Strike rate 37.77% (34/90) South 7.25 Fantastic Lass 9/4 var bog 15 pts. Alloted a mark of just 47 at the start of the season which now looks very generous because when stepped up in trip it has ran well twice, once in defeat in second and then won lto at nott and now rated 61 but the slight step up in distance again should suit, further improvement from this progressive fahey horse at this lowly level is very possible. Wind 6.10 Sea Admiral 7.5 pts e.w 9/2 bet3 bog Only two places on offer but relatively early promise from this one suggest that this one cannot be ruled out at all even though the yard is arguably a bit quiet. First two runs last year had some promise, fast finishing third in what was a decent race at ling and then again he stayed on at warw., last run of 07 he never got into it but this increased trip could very well suit, certainly on the evidence of first two runs and breeding but im no expect on that so dont quote me. 7.10 Salsa Steps 8/1 wh 7.5 pts e.w Very impressive win two starts ago, a modest folk. maiden but this one won it in some style in similar conditions to today, after that tried in listed company on soft ground and down the field but not completely disgraced. tried at 6f todat, possible question mark as to how ideal that is (may need further) but in that folk. race it was no problem at all and place claims at least. 7.40 Checklow 4/6 var 15 pts. Odds on and there is a stoute unraced type in there but looking at entries, derbies and on its first run i can see why it is fancied. On debut it ran a good race, the gosden horse was an impressive winner but this one in third showed quite a bit of promise, the experience should do him good, yards runners that theyve had so far this season have run well in the main and detorri's only mount of the evening. Yarm 2.00 Mukhber 9/4 var bog 15 pts every gosden runner at the moment warrents a closer look and this one is no exception. Won on debut under an educational ride from the rider, at one stage looked beat and matched huge price in running if i remember but stayed on well to win and on first start this season, form of which has had the odd boost, stayed on a bit again having never really looked a factor. Increased trip could well help, ground a bit of an unknown but considering trainers top form it must be respected. 5.00 Royal premier 7.5 pts e.w 8/1 var bog Fav could be hard to beat with potentially much in hand if back to old form but this one, whilst pretty ordinary, at this level is very much a threat. Likes the course, won before and likes the ground, the claimer gets on quite well with him, has won off a higher mark and a threat.

[WoodyTHFC]

Dont know why it went like that?

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 1370 pts
Returned 1596.23pts
P/L +226.23
Yield +16.5%
Strike rate 38.54% (37/96)

Bath
4.40 Cake 10/1 cor 7.5 pts e.w Not too bad as a 2 year old and showed a lot of speed, won a listed contest and also was placed in a group 3. first start of 07 was never in the race over 7f which simply is not the ideal trip, she shapes as though 5f is more her thing and whilst there maybe a question as to if shes trained on at 3, she is respected on her form last year and is an e.w alternative to the fav.

Wolv
8.05 Trip the Light10/1 betfr 7.5 pts e.w Fahey runner who maybe well handicapped which always is interesting. Had a mark of 49 at the start of the season and thats now even lower on a desperate 47 and ok its shown relatively little but lto it stayed on a little bit over a lesser trip, as the trip increases again today I believe its chances also increase and off that sort of mark any sort of improvement makes it interesting.

South
3.00 Dubai meydan 7/4 var bog 15 pts Tariner often speaks highly of this one and thinks highly of it too as shown by running it in the dewhurst on its second start. Showed nothing that day but time before ran a decent third at warwick without the cleanest of passages and showed quite a bit of promise that day. Trainer with lots of winners of late too.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 1400 pts
Returned 1596.23pts
P/L +196.23
Yield +14.02%
Strike rate 37.75% (37/98)

Asc

A few short ones.
2.45 Makaaseb 9/4 spo 15 pts Won nicely on her first start, beating a useful gosden horse in the process and indeed won so well that she went off fav at hq next time in the rockfel. She was a bit of a let down there in midfield, on the bare figures she probably ran similar to he first run but it looked a weaker race at the time considering its recent standard and one she was capable of winning, so the run has to be classed as a bit disappointing. Still has some fancy entries so there still has to be a fair amount of hope that she can fulfill here early promise and this is a chance to do it. Some rivals may well be sharper but at the same, the main 3 around her in the market look that bit more exposed than Makaaseb particularly if her Rockfel 'disappointment' was a one off.

3.55 Soapy Danger 11/8 var bog 15 pts Won here over CD in 2006 when winning the Queen Vase and despite problems since, has shown that abilities remain with a couple of decent runs towards the end of 07 and a brave performance to win lto at don. in a race on old form he should have won in truth. Should shape much fitter for that first run of the season today and one of the market rivals, distinction, has not recaptured earlier form since injury and is vulnerable to a younger rival.

4.30 Fat Boy 15/8 bet3 bog 15 pts Had some good form in patches last year, group 2 placed/listed winner. Looked a sprinter at the time so run lto at 7f was a good one when just went down to stimulation under canny ride from dettori who went a slowish pace to ensure fat boy could get the trip that day, only to be mugged on the line. Drop to 6f I see as much more ideal, true with a few of these though. However it has shown that it still does have the ability from 2 to 3, some of these have not yet so considering that and that Fat Boy should appreciate the trip, it is the selection. Lots of rain could be a problem.

5.05 Bankable 13/8 boy bog 15 pts Short price for such a big field handicap but undoubtedly this one looks the most interesting of these. Midfield in a hq race that actually worked out quite well, it then won both times following and both times with a degree of ease. handles different types of ground, looks a horse very capable of progressing further as a 4 year old, dettori booked for his old boss.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 1430 pts
Returned 1635.605pts
P/L +205.605
Yield +14.37%
Strike rate 38% (38/100)

Big Day
Newm
2.10 Prime Exhibit 4/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Put this up last time over further where it run at hq and ran respectably to a point but possibly not quite in with the main action and also not quite getting home properly, remains a good prospect though, form of win last season has worked out and the drop back in trip could just help it go flat out so to speak. Stable a bit quiet for winners so far (only 1 I think) which is a slight concern.

2.45 Heaven Sent 2/1 var 15 pts Run a lot of creditble races, not in top group standard but in group 3s/listed etc. including lto when won an a/w listed race at kem pretty well, trip looks just about ideal and the is a bit of a doubt about the main rival passage of time who never really fulfilled her promise at 2 last season and for whom the trip maybe a bit sharp for without a run so far this season.

3.25 New Approach 15/8 skyb 30 pts, Moynahan 100 betf 2 pts and 12.5 2 pts. New Approach looks a serious horse, 5 from 5, beat much of the field before and two group 1 wins prove undoubtedly he was the best at 2 last year and looks the type who should only get better at 2 when he moves up in trip, 1m today is seemingly wanted at least and in time surely will want even further and the ire. derby is planned for this one (shame it is not the real derby imo.) I saw it win the dewhurst last year, when it was an afterthought and not many horses can win group 1s despite appearing to struggle during the race, that in itself shows an element of class. Not sure if better ground will enable Ravens Pass to reverse form. It may have a slight temperament issue which could be the main thing that could knock its hopes. A shame that some potenial rivals like Fast Company, Jupiter Pluvius, Twice Over, Rio de la Plata and even bigger priced longshot hopefuls like Atlantic Sport and Gotheburg are not here but if I had to go for a long priced outsider it would be Moynahan. Now realistically it has it find and win hopes and more reaslistic place hopes are slim but if some of the rivals didnt perform then a big priced horse could sneak a place and thats happened before. Cole's Moynahan could be that unexposed horse. Fourth on debut when a bit green, it won nicely at York in a maiden from a horse who went onto be group placed and has formline with Stimulation. Sure to improve for that and will need to. connections think it will get the trip. the key though might just be that Cole had three other hopefuls for this Luck Money, river pround and even general elliot. The first two of those were not quite really top class but even so, performed with lots of credit at times in group races and the fact that this unexposed type is chosen ahead of them to run in this may just be significant. May sneak a place but imo if NA has his head on I think he wins as the main pick.

4.00 Beaver Patrol 14/1 7.5 pts e.w Gift Horse 20/1 7.5 pts e.w Barney McGrew 25/1 7.5 pts e.w all 5 places (sometimes means slightly lesser price taken) bog tough race so going with three and in three different places, high middle low. Beaver Patrol won this last year and whilst significantly higher now, he thrives in these types of contests (stewards cup, ayr gold cup ran well) and continued to improve last season, ran with credit too in dubai this season and likely to give his running and definite place claims.Gift Horse used to have that touch of class and whilst maybe not first string of stable he is off an ever dropping mark and whilst that reflects taht he is not in say the form of a couple of years ago, he has shown that ability remains and didnt have great luck at times last season (not clear run, bad draw etc.), even first up this season didnt have the best of draws, may still have a big race in him, strong travelling style suits big races like this. Barney McGrew has form at 6 and 7f which could be important as a strong finisher may be needed in this. Progressed last season and last two runs got bad runs both times, with a better run today, it shouldnt be ignored.

5.10 Ramona Chase 10/1 sj 7.5 pts e.w Looked fair prospect at start of 2 year old career, decent efforts in listed events but towards the end struggled in better company, however run first up this season encourages. From a long way back, it finished very strongly without the greatest of runs. Step up in trip definitely looks wanted now and could bring about further improvement which in what could be a hot race, maybe needed.

5.45 Silver Suitor 9/2 sk 7.5 pts e.w improved last season as he went up in trip and ended with a win and a a second at increased trip. Judging by entries, a fair bit thought off and aslo that stayeing is likely to be on the cards for this progressive horse. May find things a touch sharp at 12 first up today but could be one to follow this season nonetheless.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 1569 pts
Returned 1722.79pts
P/L +153.79
Yield +9.8%
Strike rate 37.6% (41/109)

Down a bit yesterday, the one in the last arguably most unlucky. New Approach ran a fine race and when stepped up in trip could be very very good, just a shame that most likely wont be at epsom. Will look at other meetings and come back with other prices in the morning.

Newm
2.05 Proponent 7.5 pts e.w Oceana Gold 7.5 pts e.w Heaven Knows is just left out but Proponent promised to be a good horse at 2, at 3 never really fulfilled promise bar one reasonably encouraging run in a really hot race behind pipedreamer where it flattered out despite travelling very well. Seasonal return encoraged for teh strong travelling type, just didnt quite have that kick on soft ground when it mattered but plugged on a bit into fourth and can build on that over 1f longer which should help. Trainer has been lacking winners though. Oceana Gold progressed last season on different kinds of ground, finished season off with good staying on second behind Bankable, form looks good now and that run offers hope over 1f extra.

2.40 Getaway 15 pts Malt or Mash 7.5 pts e.w 12/1 bet3 bog Getaway has the class element having finished the Arc so strongly last year, think it was a weak Arc personally but even still this ones run was good, group 2 and group 3 winner already and has that class element for a top trainer and may be able to concede weight, Malt or Mash was a very progressive handicapper last year and won listed event first up this season, last run it didnt like the soft ground but with ideal fast ground today, a step up in class may not be totally out of its reach for a horse whos galloping style could be suited here and should not be overlooked lightly.

3.20 Already on Savethisdanceforme 20/1 12.5 pts e.w, advised on here. Natagora 3/1 var bog 25 pts. Savethisdanceforme maybe 'second string' but clearly that was a tough decision and Moore is a fine man to step up, she can step up too, unusual in the way she took a long time to get going last season but when she did she impressed, listed win was so impressive, run first up this season was solid, just caught right at the death carrying overweight, seemingly connections think better ground will suit (soft ground fine as well), capable of stepping up for sure, reminds me of Peeping Fawn ie. a few runs to win but then the penny dropped. Natagora just gets the call ahead of Spacious for the second pick. She has lots of speed for sure but looks as though a mile is not out of her radar at all. She won her group 1 well at the end of last season over the course when first two well clear of the third and she was holding the second by the end. She has the form in the book that some of the other promising types do not have, had a good prep when cosy winner at 7f when she wasnt stopping, could be vulnerable late on her to something with a turn of foot at the end (could be Spacious but hope Im wrong) but nonetheless form in the book, has proved she has trained on and is well and good claims along with the ante post pick, Savethisdanceforme (who has done nothing since I picked her but now is half the odds, sometimes you get lucky I suppose.)

3.55 Sakhees Secret 2/1 lad 15 pts drops back to 5f and carries penalty but on ground that should suit, run lto apparent explaination for defeat due to watering, has enough of a cruising speed to make sure this drop back is not a huge problem. Won July Cup nicely last year, certainly showed what a strong traveller he is in that race which I believe will help today. Can go well fresh as shown with handicap rout first up last year mind you he should have routed them considering he was going to be a group 1 winner by the end of the season!

5.05 Cruel Sea 15 pts Hills starting to find form as he does at this stage of the season normally and this one won on only start for him last season at 2, which is often a good sign in Hills horses that she was good enough to win first time at 2. She won well too at Don. form so far has not really been boosted (third was third in ok race afterwards the only 'real runner' from it) Travelled like a good horse that day and pulled clear showing further should suit in time for oaks entered horse and that it can handle good ground no problem.

5.40 Slugger O' toole 7.5 pts e.w A few here that look sure to improve on their marks but that may include this one, down the field on only start at 2 to a decent gosden horse, he then ran quite an eyecatching fourth over cd in a race that is working out well. Lto on a/w won at wolv on a/w but that looks a good win, beat Skadrak, highly thought (Guineas entered for a long time) and ran a really good race on his debut in hottish asc. race, third looked no mug that day either, can build on that win in handicap company for Hills again.