WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2008

[WoodyTHFC]

I have done one of these for the NH season and although a bit sketchy at the moment there have been lots of winners on there despite the losers and with another years experience as a relatively novice punter hopefully there will be some more on the flat and P/L better. A few things I will try to do better are: not quite as many races covered, that does not necessarily mean numbers of bets drop dramatically but more that I will not do for example 18 races on one day, there will be a touch more more reservation even if it means the odd big winner will escape and also I will be a bit more reserved on the stakes of ante post bets, something that cost me badly on my jumps thread. Post first bets up in a minute and should be back from WHL today in time for the big Lincoln.

[WoodyTHFC]

Doncaster
2.50 Zaahid 3/1 betfr 15 pts Was my main fancy for the Lincoln and its a shame for me that an improving horse like this could not make it when there are so many exposed horses in the Lincoln. It was similar in the Ebor last year when horses like Mahler couldn't make the cut and yet by the end of the season it was a Royal Ascot winner and placed in a Leger and Melbourne Cup. Anyway improved last year notably start two back when won despite terrible run, value for about 3/4 lengths no question that day, after that another solid run when placed behind Godolphin but for me was on the wrong part of the track that day by Hills and that marks up the run higher imo, a mark of 92 seems fair imo. Draw anyones guest but generally since redevolpment, middle to higher was favoured early on, still that probabaly is the biggest potential problem from 21 yet could be advantage.

3.25 Utmost Respect 5.9 betf 7.5 pts win 2.68 betf 7.5 pts place Slightly disappointed by lack of trainers confidence this morning and last run at the increasingly unreliable Ascot surface. However until then looking a real improver into pattern company possibly, when landing gamble in Silver Cup a prime example, trainer does well with his horses and although maybe not completely ready, really no one but the trainer knows has enough sbility to go close from 13 Wi Dud 9.4 betf 7.5 pts win 3.15 place 7.5 pts Good at 2, chased home Dutch Art for one and some fairly good runs at times last season, notably at San when mugged by Hoh Mike in Group race, normally front runs with pace to burn, it has been running with enough credit in better races last season so drop to listed company appeals e.w at least.

4.00 Prince Forever 8/1 boy bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places A dark horse imo. Only three starts and has looked inexperienced so far and big field considering that maybe a concern. However lots of ability and fairly unexposed, mark of 106 reflects its run in listed company lto when behind Tariq who went onto better things in group races and second and fourth have both performed well at times after that race so that looks a good race. At 2 won on debut and then considered good enough to be in Group 2 behind last years Guineas first and second and Derby second, pulled too free that day to ruin chance and end up last but big field should enable a fair bit of cover which might be what the horse needs to settle better and a contender of interest, Rio Riva 10/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w more exposed but still in with solid chance of place at least, second last year from awful draw and really unlucky not to win that day, after that disappointed at times last season but still some fairly good runs notably when softer so drop of rain would not hurt at all and only 3 pounds higher than last year. Drawn lower, hopefully draw will not be too important in deciding racing today.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 60 pts
Returned 49.875 pts
P/L -10.125
Yield -16.88%
Strike rate 50% (2/4)

Started thread yesterday with two places, note the non runner, slightly down.

Muss
3.55 Prince Kalamoun 9/4 bet3 bog 15 pts On paper doesn't seem anything more than an ordinary maiden and could be a good opportunity for this one to open its account. Sets a solid standard in the context of the race, nothing special but four runs of similar level and just found wanting by one or two too good such as listed performer at the end of the season, Alan Devonshire or even the group 3 horse, Dubai Time, I dont specifically know but I would be surprised if there is anything in here of that level and this might just be this ones chance to get a win and is the choice ahead of the Johnson horse.

4.30 Sadler's Kingdom 14/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w Souffleur the real dark horse here but a safer option at the top of the handicap could be Fahey's Sadler's Kingdom. A horse who progressed last season and ended up racing in valuable handicap in ireland following a host of wins in three different countries which in itself is an unusual statistic, some of those wins were on softer which maybe a concern and of course I do not know how sharp he is but he stays well, no doubt about that and looks reasoanbly priced to place at least.

5.30 Bo McGinty 8/1 pp 7.5 pts e.w Whereas the others do not have recent runs, this one is full of them from the a/w and some good performances amongst them a win, a narrow second and another second just to name a few. He is exposed but so are virtually all of these, he has the recent form which should be an advantage, stall 14 probably isn't especially as he is a prominent racer but at this stage of the season, draw biases should not set in stone until there is the visual evidence of the season so far and the market confidence encourages.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 105 pts
Returned 49.875 pts
P/L -55.125
Yield -52.5%
Strike rate 28.57% (2/7)

Nothing today.

[WoodyTHFC]

Red
2.00 Dorn Dancer 13/2 betf 7.5 pts e.w Exposed like virtually all of these but one who has a fairly decent record fresh and who is dropping to a mark which can be won off, indeed 1 pound lower than last success and its not as if this one was in terrible form at the end of last season to be dropping, lto it was third over further. There is a suggestion it may need further than a sprint these days but given its better record early on in the season and its increasingly dropping mark it will be the e.w selection.

4.55 King of the Moors 16/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w Notably good course record this one, 2 wins from 3 and the handicapper has dropped it from its last turf run 5 pounds which gives it a bit of a chance today. Has a fairly decent record early on in the season but that does not quite apply as its recent a/w runs have been poor and that is the concern but really it is not an a/w horse so far, 3 average runs and the return to the turf at its favoured track may mean market support this morning is not misplaced.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 135 pts
Returned 69.5625 pts
P/L -65.4375
Yield -48.69%
Strike rate 33.33% (3/9)

Pont
2.40 Dorn Dancer 6/1 var 7.5 pts e.w See post yesterday. Ran well yesterday in third when stayed on over 5f having originally been a touched outpaced early on and slightly hampered although it does have a come from behind style. 6f should be no problem today if no effects of yesterdays run.

4.20 Heaven Knows sp 15 pts Just missed out to be in the Lincoln but this is probably more its trip now, certainly towards the end of last season when it started fulfill some earlier promise, the win at Newb for example and there should be more to come too. Eradicate the main danger probably but that was one who lost its way towards the end of last season and needs to bounce back to form this year. The trainer has made a decent start to the season as well.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 165 pts
Returned 88.3125pts
P/L -76.6875
Yield -46.47%
Strike rate 36.36% (4/11)

Big day.

Donc
2.00 Fever 25/1 bet3 bog 5 pts e.w Relatively cheap purchase and second choice of stable but claimer takes valuable pounds off and going back to form last season, this price could be big, the run just behind Zaham in particular looks strong and even before that the wins before that look decent or even the run behind Silkwood and Zar Solitario, drop back in trip might not be instantly thought of as ideal but on breeding a mile might not be too sharp and either way at the price worth a go.

3.05 Gunfighter 9/1 betf 7.5 pts e.w Very impressed with this ones CD two starts back, travelled well and picked up nicely, that gave it a two timer and whilst it could not complete the hat trick over a trip that possibly tested stamina too much, drop back in trip should suit, claimer gets on well with him and new mark might not hav totally found him out, certainly win two starts back suggested it deserved it.

4.10 Gift Horse 16/1 betf 7.5 pts e.w This one normally prospers in the summer but it has won fresh in the past and even though perhaps not stable first choice it should not be discounted. Declining mark of 90 looks to be reasonable for a horse who at times last season put in decent runs such as unlcuky effort at track under Spencer when stayed on on its tenth attempt for a clear run, won at Goodwood on its side of the track, drawn middle and not sure what that means as last weeks meet did not show obvious bias so hard to read clear conclusions, certainly I feel has a race in him of this mark at soem stage this season.

Kem
2.05 Mujaadel 12/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w Dunlops few have started well this season and he runs two here but again the second choice might be of more interest, ran disappointingly lto last season but before that looked reasonably useful, run behind Rio de la Plata for one, won maiden at odds on another decent performance, only slight concern is that a/w form is an unkown but still shouldn't be dismissed.

2.40 Miesko 6.8 betf 7.5 pts 2.38 place 7.5 pts Related to Folk who was good in Dubai last year and after a few runs this one finally got his act together with a couple of wins over sprint distances towards last season and looked to have improved in doing so, handicapper may not have totally found him out and from pedigree surface should be ok.

3.10 Mr Aviator 7.5 pts e.w SP Won nicely the other week here and although raised for that, it might not be too harsh, last season at times some good runs, win at Good for example when well backed, some useful types behind that day, run behind Pipedreamer another fine run, lots of good types in that race, perhaps lost its way a bit right at the end of a tough season but looks ready for this season judging by win lto and should go close.

3.45 Diamond Tycoon 15 pts 2/1 spo Even with all the Dubai racing, arguably the most interesting runner of the whole day. Awesome maiden win, thrashed high quality field, maiden of the season for me last year, Leger winner and Cambridgeshire winner put to the sword with ease then, on the bridle, Guineas ran ok not really much better than that but possibly just found the race a touch too soon. Had problems but returns today on a/w and pedigree indicates that shouldnt be a problem, trip is questionable over 10f but surely Meehan must think it has it in him or why run such a fascinating horse who has had problems over it and if you were looking for positive signs in regards with the trip well it was not stopping at Newb over 1m.

5.25 Som Tala 9/2 betf 15 pts Interestingly gelded, jumper in the making? Findaly reportedly has had his eyes on this one for that. Anyway flat form at times reasonable, Royal Ascot third for one in a race that worked out in places, Leg Spinner, Juniper Girl. Ran moderately after that without winning, ignore Cesar. run as went free before hand, might not be the worse chance first up, pedigree indicates a/w shouldnt be a major problem.

Nad
2.15 Honour Devil 15 pts SP De Kock pair look the main two to concentrate although durcan's mount is another big player. This one looked good early on in carnival, two really striking wins including one over Royal Vintage, Royal Vintage reversed form after that and got weight and on a literal reading is hard to beat on that but Honour Devil was awkward that day and when the penny finally dropped, made some late ground, I think a more professional Honour Devil today, more like first two runs should see it go very close and from what Ive seen from a far, it might just be the better horse.

3.55 Creachadoir 4/1 PB (slightly bigger elsewhere but 4 places e.w for both) 7.5 pts e.w Darjina 9/2 PB 7.5 pts e.w Creachadoir should have run in the 2000g Eng last year for me, Teofilo was all over it at work, reportedly, but given how well this one ran behind Cockney Rebel in the Irish 2000g, it may well have not been out of the picture and it was all bery mysterious how that happened last year, when switched to Godolphin won well first up and maybe didnt get home in Champion stakes at Newm which I was there for, trainer afterwards said it was 1m and 1f horse, not a miler or 10 f so that has to be encouraging for this, Hong Kong run was very good when just second and showed Darjina and this one closely matched. Dettori may have gone for wrong one as Champion Stakes form may be slightly misleading. Darjina won French 1000g and win over ramonti in France looks quality now, better on sound surface and made up late ground over 1m in Hong Kong so hope at new trip. Both should run well.

4.40 Youmzain 6/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Sun Classique 7/1 PB 4 places 7.5 pts e.w Youmzain I always back, did in the Arc on here along with dylan Thomas so that was profitable, that was a fine run, King George run was as well and the run in this last year when poor draw didnt help it, come from behind style difficult to win with but place chances for sure and reprtedly better at 5 than 4 according to trainer, Sun Classique had good form in South Africa and created really good impression with good wins at Carnival so is in good form, win lto was a miracle from impossible position and another with solid e.w claims for the impressive De Kock stable.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 355 pts
Returned 247.69pts
P/L -107.31
Yield -30.22%
Strike rate 33.33% (8/24)

Curr

3.55 Savethisdanceforme 15 pts SP Will post below to advise this one for the 1000G, not that I know of exact running plans, it does have an entry in it although also does have one in Irish version too and with O'Brien you never know what he is going to do. As for this one it was initially disappointing and had lots of runs without success before modest success at Dundalk but then had a fine run behind Zarkava in Group 1 on last years Arc day when fourth. Then was hugely impressive when won listed race over CD by 9 lengths following its sixth run of the season. Behind was a horse called Maryellen's Spirit who had interesting form lines with Curtain Call, having beaten the colt earlier that season. That was a strong run because Curtain Call by the end of the season won a Group 2, had also run New Approach relatively close and went off only 4/1 when it finished midfield in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy. So the form line looks fairly decent for this undoubtedly improved sort, very similar to Peeping Fawn who ran loads of times, albeit at 3 before becoming a much improved awesome horse. Has shown it stays 1m on that last win and there was a small bit of cut in the ground that day although nothing compared to what there will be tomorrow. Lush Lashes a clear danger so is last years Irish lincoln winner who will love the ground but Savethisdanceforme is very interesting not just tomorrow but all season.

4.30 Tis Mighty 7.5 pts e.w 12/1 bet3 5 places bog Interesting runner, many of these are pretty exposed but this one looks an improver, it handles heavy ground as shown when second on its second ever start, won on third start last season but it was last run that encourages, it was second behind Redstone Dancer when just in front of Many Colors. Well that formline looks strong now, Redstone Dancer was a Group 3 winner by the end of the season and Many Colors was impressive in ireland and Dubai after that run, on its last two Dubai rusn it chased hoem Sun Classique and only just going down, thats the Sun Classique who won the Sheema Classic yesterday. Formlines read well, handles cut and should have strong place chances at least. Crooked Throw 7.5 pts e.w 22/1 bet3 bog On quite a lofty mark now and one which may make it quite tough for this one to win but it has definite place chances especially as it goes with cut and has so many good runs in big field races which clearly it thrives on, last year for one where it was second in this race. Races off higher mark today but should be ready after prep at Dundalk and place claims.

[WoodyTHFC]

So just to confirm, Savethisdanceforme 20/1 for 1000 Guineas 12.5 pts e.w, so not massive stakes as I spoke of before. As for this one it was initially disappointing and had lots of runs without success before modest success at Dundalk but then had a fine run behind Zarkava in Group 1 on last years Arc day when fourth. Then was hugely impressive when won listed race over CD by 9 lengths following its sixth run of the season. Behind was a horse called Maryellen's Spirit who had interesting form lines with Curtain Call, having beaten the colt earlier that season. That was a strong run because Curtain Call by the end of the season won a Group 2, had also run New Approach relatively close and went off only 4/1 when it finished midfield in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy. So the form line looks fairly decent for this undoubtedly improved sort, very similar to Peeping Fawn who ran loads of times, albeit at 3 before becoming a much improved awesome horse. It runs tomorrow as I spoke of and any sort of positive run and it could well drop in price even though plans are not confirmed and with O'Brien even if they were confirmed they would probably change. On the Longchamp run may have it to find with Zakarva but it undoubtedly improved after that and the French horse is not a confirmed runner, far from it by the sounds. This one could be more interesting then the much shorter stablemate, Listen.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 400 pts
Returned 468.94pts
P/L +68.94
Yield +17.24%
Strike rate 33.33% (9/27)

Pleasant surprise after the rubbish of the afternoon, 22/1 adv. winner. As for Savethisdanceforme seemed to run a fair race and just caught close up in what I imagine would have been very testing ground. Would not give up on it for Guineas, just hope they go Eng version.

[WoodyTHFC]

Ling
2.40 Moski 7/2 var bog 15 pts. Very difficult race to call with so many unexposed types in here, some making their debuts and improvement generally expected from virtually the whole field on paper at least. However, PCH's Moski went into the notebook last year when, in the Authorized colours after a big gamble into fav, on debut, it totally messed up the start to be a long way back only to make up some relatively eyecatching late ground over 6f and ended up sixth that day. The form of that race is not special at all, the winner was second in a class 3 event but generally the form has been a bit of a let down of the horses in front of it that day but Moski is naturally open to lots of improvement, steps up to a mile today which looks certain to suit and has an inform trainer who apart from one odds on reverse in Brave Prospector has started the season well, should go close.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 415 pts
Returned 468.94pts
P/L +53.94
Yield +12.99%
Strike rate 32.14% (9/28)

Don

Difficult to asses the draw here and probably wrong to draw too many stand out conclusions but last time here when much softer the far side was favoured however on quicker generally since redevelopment there has not been an obvious clear bias, if anything slightly middle to higher so really no total conclusions from that.

2.40 Mukhber 7/4 var bog 15 pts Looks to concern the first two in the market here and preference for the Gosden horse. Made a good impresssion on debut, green at first and hit big price in running from memory but under relatively easy ride came home late to beat the at times useful looking Irish Mayhem at HQ. Given a mark of 83 and considering how green it was on debut there should be lots more improvement in him with extra experience and on the stands side looks fairly enough treated to go close.

4.25Barney McGrew9/1 cor 7.5 pts e.w Tough race to call, if heavy showers do get into the track then far side will probably be favoured but the cautious approach is one fairly in middle in 7 such as this one who unlike some of the these is going the right way and comes back after awful luck here on its last run last season. Stays slightly further than this as well which should help him pick them up considering the blistering pace of some of these around him, he won twice at the end of last season in similar races before being totally chopped up lto, mark has risen but understandably so and should give a good account of himself for new yard.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 445 pts
Returned 468.94pts
P/L +23.94
Yield +5.37%
Strike rate 30% (9/30)

Don
3.35 Dont Panic 7/4 var 15 pts Fantastic performance by this one lto in Spring Mile, time quicker than the Lincoln which surely this one would have won if in, likes cut in the ground, impressive win before that showed it was improving and quite clearly has improved a lot since being gelded, trainer is in top form (Medicine Path looks the biggest danger) and looks capable of stepping up. Every chance.

4.45 Tasdeer evens bog 15 pts Skinny price after non runner and skinny when you consider a possible doubt over softer ground but the whole field virtually have similar doubts and whilst on official figures this one may not have to find a bit on one (Spitfire) there is more than enough to suggest he is well capable, Yarm. win was visually impressive as was the run first time up this year when caught late by the impressive Paco Boy. Strong connections and if the ground does not incovenience too much then has big chance.

Kem
3.20 Gaspar Van Wittel 7/2 bog 10 pts Created good impression early last season with some visually decent wins, could never get into a group 3 after that but was placed in a group 3 just beaten for second by a subsequent group 2 winner and group 1 placed horse, was beaten in a sales race lto from bad draw, step up in trip today should definitely suit, dont know of a/w ability Il Warrd 9/2 bog 10 pts Could be the biggest danger and an unknown factor, very good on debut win and saw out 7f strongly that day and that offers hope and on the back of that fancied for group 2 but was well beaten, needs to bounce back first time up today but entries and the style of earlier win suggest is capable.

5.05 Kings Icon 12/1 bog 7.5 pts e.w Won quite nicely on second start and on back of that relatively fancied for group 2 last season, disappointed then and lto but comes back after a break with a lower mark now and on early promise a mark of 81 is not out of its radar at all, doubts would include a/w, gelded recently and lack of trainer's runners but decent e.w price if back to earlier promise.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 510 pts
Returned 573.94pts
P/L +63.94
Yield +11.14%
Strike rate 31.42% (11/35)

Curr
3.15 Deauville Vision 7.5 pts e.w 13/2 Macarthur is the stand out choice and can go on the ground but he looked more and more a stayer by the end of last season so Im not sure if the drop back in trip is completely ideal. This one thrives on really testing conditions, its Irish lincoln win last year over this years winner is proof to that when she won by 8 lengths, she has won nicely before at this level, should be fitter than one or two notably the fav after a third in what I think will prove to be a hot race with Savethisdanceforme caught on the line, she can be effective at a mile or 10f and every chance of placing at the bare minimum.

4.15 Us Ranger 15 pts win 11/10 var bog Very highly spoke of last year, fancied for the 2000G when probably didnt get home, beaten by Tariq at Asc and then went to O'Brien's late last season and won over 6f and then was fourth in a messy 7f race lto in France, has won on heavy in France which can be suspicious but does have form with a bit of cut elsewhere and very much a good prospect for the season. Crooked Throw a 25/1 winner for me last time could be an e.w shot up in class.

5.15 Celtic Dane 7.5 pts e.w 8/1 var bog Trainer's have been running well and this one put in some nice performances last season, a couple of the most notable runs include 2 seconds in decent handicaps and two wins on its second and third career starts. Has some form on testing ground too, third on debut on sft/heavy, second on yielding and lto in Irish lincoln it stayed on over a mile in very testing ground indicating it wants further which it has run over already in its career. Place claims at least.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 555 pts
Returned 573.94pts
P/L +18.94
Yield +3.41%
Strike rate 28.2% (11/39)

Win
4.30 By Command 5/2 betfr 15 pts tricky race, with horses making their debuts and limited evidence of form but of those that have run, this one after a substantial break from last season looks one of the more obvious standouts and certainly is in terms of entries for this season, Derby (eng/ire), Dante etc. On its debut it was fourth just behind a few decent horses, one was placed in a group 2, on the back of that run it was a hot fav. only to be beaten into fifth when a touch one pace at the crunch, the horses in front though were impressive, Fast Company (Dewhurst second), Redolent placed in group races and Siberian Tiger won a listed event. A step up to 10f today and whilst there has to be an element of guess work if thats completely ideal, there are suggestions it is and trainer in good form. Should go close.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 570 pts
Returned 626.44pts
P/L +56.44
Yield +9.90%
Strike rate 30% (12/40)

Will put prices up in the morning.

Bev
5.05 Rossini's Dancer 7.5 pts e.w Quite possibly not that well drawn in one and form is limited to an extent but there is a definite hint of form, at admittedly a lowly level that make her of some interest.The traditional 3 runs at an inadequate trip gained it a lowly mark of 63 for its shrewd and relatively inform trainer and on the south run it was well beaten but did stay on, eye catching it was described as, lto in was sixth in a hot race, winner twice won now and second won too, since then it has dropped even further to a mark of 60 and the trip today, slightly less than lto when it may not have truly got home but still an increase over its inadequate former sprinting trip.

Newm
3.10 Stimulation 15 pts Good race and this one comes into it with solid form lines from just three runs and remains open to much improvement at 3. Won nicely on debut at Newb. and then a good second to the much talked of Confront as Asc when a fair way clear of the third, it then moved up to a group 3 when an unlucky second to Beacon Lodge at Newb. on softer. That has earned it a mark of 106 and considering how it is still pretty unexposed it could well improve on that, the trip does not prove an issue unlike, Spirit of Sharjah, Cake, Berbice to name a few who looked last year more sprinters.

3.45 Spinning Lucy 7.5 pts e.w I dont think this is that great a race and its one where a slightly more exposed type who has good official rated form should not be ruled out at all. Third on debut here last year when had an unlucky passage it then had problems beaten odds on, came back in sales race and then stayed on over 6f when third (Shabiba won that day.) However then at 6f easily won maiden and then improved dramatically to win here over 6f in a listed event. She looks as though rise to 7f will help her and despite there being a few in here looking more unexposed, she has reasonably smart form and should go close to being placed at least.

4.20 Kandahar Run 15 pts Having been very green on debut he stayed on over a mile to be second and subsequently after that won twice, both in decent fashion whilst remain quite green so there should be a lot more improvement in him. The form of the wins are not that special but the impression made of a horse that could improve at 3 for Cecil was reasonably impressive and I dont see the competition as that difficult tomorrow. Stepping up in trip does not seem a problem.

4.55 Skadrak 15 pts Tricky race to know massive amounts about but what I do know is that this ones only run was what I thought to be a good second at Asc when the front three could barely be split but were miles clear of the rest. The only one of the three to reappear was Atlantic Sport who i see as a real Guineas outsider, disappoint slightly at don. in the champagne despite offically improving. However the fact he was just 5/2 for that speaks volumes of the impression the asc. race left and this one form the very much inform PCH yard has to be included in that impression.

5.30 Crystany 7.5 pts e.w Cecil again. Quite well spoken of last year and form was fair and seemingly improving, last couple of starts especially. Fourth in hot race on debut, she was then fifth in another decent race at goodwood, then she won well at ripon before being second at don. over a touch further in a handicap. Mark has risen after that but entries and improving form suggest she is not just highly thought of but also visually earning that to and from what maybe a favourable high draw, cant be sure though, she has strong place claims at least.

[WoodyTHFC]

Rossinis Dancer 9/2 var
Stimulation 2/1 cor
Spinning Lucy 13/2 var
Kandahar Run 6/4 var
Skadrak 5/2 var
Crystany 11/2 var

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 645 pts
Returned 705.19pts
P/L +60.19
Yield +9.33%
Strike rate 33.33% (15/45)

Newm
3.10 Per Incanto 12/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w Interesting recruit last year for strong connections having shown a group level winning ability in Italy, the 6f group race it won actually produced subsequent listed/group winners or placed horses which even in italy still reads fairly well. Form in this country is quite limited but I do believe there are excuses, over 7f didnt quite get home and it was probably too soft as it may have been in the group 1 lto due to overwatering of the track. With ground that should be drying out, 6f and a whole winter of work for what would still be quite a new yard for the horse, he has enough dark horse potential to go well.

3.45 Ravens Pass 15 pts For me and official ratings has the best form in the book of these. Was impressive in three wins last year especially at San. in group 3 when won by miles in one of the most impressive performances you could wish to see, not to mention the second (City Leader who reopposes) won a group 2 and was second in group 1 afterwards. In dewhurst travelled the best imo but on that ground could not quite pick up late home, clearly good ground suits this one most so drying nature of ground should help. There is a possible doubt about increased trip to a mile but before dewhurst run, which was still a fine effort, he certainly was not stopping at 7f in earlier wins and on this ground I think he can get it. Yard cant be in better form and the proven class act of the field imo.

4.20 Pipedreamer 15 pts Won Cambridgeshire over CD lto and won impressively in a style of a horse who looked in a different class to handicappers. Steps up to group 3 but on that win, where he travelled like the best horse by miles and then won like the best horse he should be more than capable of at least a group 3 if not much higher by end of season. Win before that was impressive too in a goodwood race that worked out very well. Only two defeats in career so far was in hot maiden won by awesome Diamond Tycoon and then when did not get home at 10f having pulled too free, he settled much better by end of last season in two impressive wins and trip today probably its best whereas one other, multidimensional, shaped on its last run that it may in time need further and that was at further that day, for all that it won over this distance earlier in career. Trainer red hot.

4.55 Melodramatic 15 pts Only one run to go on but its comfortably the best run these lot have produced so far. It was fourth on debut in a listed contest and the form of horses around it is reads quite well; subsequent listed winner, placed horse and group 1 winner. She has good entries and considering how she should build on first run which already sets a strong level of form, she should go close for trainer who has not had the winners so far but has had quite a few horses run respectably.

5.30 Prime Exhibit 7.5 pts e.w Hopefully available e.w, he was fourth on debut in a race that produced the odd winner but then won at odds on after that when having pulled quite hard, asserted well late on. That race has worked out well I would say; second and third have been good winners since and that compared to the favs form of the last win for which there is some sort of formline with this one with the well beaten Wells Lyrical pushing Dr Fremantle closer than the horse, Prime Exhibit beat, endless luck and by a fairly considerable margin. As long as it settles and experience should help in that regard, it should find distance ok and go close.

[Gingertipster]

You have come up with 5 horses on my short list for the Tote Ten To Follow there Woody. Per Incanto the one not in.

Good luck with these today.

Ginge