Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

[WoodyTHFC]

Well the jump season really starts to kick into gear again now so Im going to start another thread for the whole season just like I did last year and for the current flat season. Luckliy they have all been in profit so far although last years jump season thread got a huge boost by the Grand National win (150.) Lots of good action awaits and hopefully it will be another good season

Exe 4.50 Quaddick Lake 5/2 tote 15 pts For my first bet Im going to exeter in what looks a decent novice race. The Hobbs runner Copper Bleu has already won a point and a bumper in Ire before another promisng effort in the aintree bumper last year so he clearly is an interesting propsect and a potential danger. However my selection Quaddick Lane also won a point and his first run last year over hurdles makes him a major player for this. He was upsides Snap Tie at the last at Chelt before falling and looked certain to give him a real race if not beat him. Thats the same Snap Tie who went onto be a classy third in the supreme at the festival on ground that wasnt completely ideal so it is form that reads so well. After that run it is true that he disappointed twice and was beaten a log way on both ocassions. However I just wonder if the break would have done him some good and perhaps more sharp now. Certainly he can go well fresh and if he can recapture that Snap Tie form it will take a good one to beat him.

[Spooner]

Good luck Woody.

[macmuck]

Given we are not sure re the disappointing runs, ive prefered a small lay of the Fav.

GL tho

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 15pts
Returned pts
P/L -15
Yield
Strike rate (0/1)

Chep
1.25 Boychuk 5/1var 7.5 pts e.w Going for the minimum e.w option here. Boychuk is a horse who if he can find anything of his old form or just put together a half decent jumping round, is well handciapped imo. Having been a good hurdler, grade 2 winner he made a promisng start to his jumping career. He was only just behind a horse of turkos class and then beat the now 160 rated gungadu. Indeed in the grade 1 at kem he was second. However since then he ahs gone downhill, often scattered by jumping errors which have meant he has been finishing his races well but being left too much to do after the mistakes taking him out of the race. Last season he did struggle but the odd run still suggested ability was there, run at asc. and chelt wasnt too bad. Todays trip looks bang on what he needs now and he can go well fresher. If he could put a decent round together, some if, 130 is a very fair mark imo.

2.00 Harry Tricker 12/1 betfr 7.5 pts e.w Crack away jack adds a fascinating dimention here and squadron and five dream have some claims too. However Harry Tricker is a horse not to be passed over that lightly. true he is out of the handicap and will need a fine effort here but its not impossible. He was a good flat horse in the end, progressed nicely to 90 rated ish horse. His hurdling hasnt always been as a clean as one would have liked but he seemed to be getting it together at one point. For example the win at plumpton fourth lengths turned out to be a classy win. the horse he comfortably beat that day went onto run two crackers at chelt and aint. and is now 137 rated, harry trciker is just 125 and thats hard to believe given hsi dominance over him at plump. that day. Of course after that things didnt quite go for him at chelt. and when he fell at aint. but he will be half ready for this after a recent flat run and certainly on his form of his plump. win, he shouldnt be forgotten even if hes just out of the handicap here.

2.35 Crescent Island 7/4 var bog 15 pts Big horse this one who could develop into something nice over fences. I get the impression with this one that anything he did over hurdles was a bonus as fences was always going to be his game. It wasnt as though he showed nothing over hurdles anyway, indeed showed lots of ability and on this track. By the end of his last run he was 140 rated in fact and thats better than these lot. He has already had a chasing run in fact, he was put into a perth race that ntd often targets only to frustraingly run out. However hopefully he can put that behind him today, probably better left handed and I think he looks set for a trip like this.

3.05 Carrick Oscar 16/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Changed yards this one now and on his first run, he could still ba quiet decent. Won that day beating a good field headed by the useful mark the book who went onto win lots of hurdling races and at one stage looked a fair chaser in the making. He looked set for good things after that. however clearly he has problems and after a third behind hoh viss when without the clearest of runs in a messy race, 3m extended him too far after that and a trip to ireland was simply too competitive. This is more realistic, he can go well fresh and not without claims.

Bang
4.00 Breedsbreeze 8/11 bet3 bog 15 pts A very intersting recruit to chasing. Was a top hurdler, indeed was a grade 1 winner at sand. and had a good solid handicap run behind ring the boss before that. As a result he was sent off at just 9/1 at chelt. but he was well below par that day and was beaten before the second last. however he has had a break now and clearly can go well off a break. Being from nicholls one would imagine he has been schooled well for his chasing bow and if he can show anything like his hurdles ability over fences or even better then he should be good enough here.

Hex
2.15 Striking Article 8/15 var bog 15 pts As it has turned out this one is short as a lot would just desert it as a result in particualrly as it has yet jumped a fence in race. however it is one of the horses Im looking forward to seeing this season and I believe he could develop into a smart horse this season. these connections often bring a smart one out at around this time of the year, indeed already have brought out one or two nice ones already. He won two bumpers nicely and created a good impression on his hurdling bow, that meant he went off a warmish order but couldnt do the buisness at newc. in what actually turned out to be a good race. At chelt. having been up there a while, he faded but he has always struck as a galloping type who could develop further as a chaser and we will see here in a race that was won by the good hobbs hill last year.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 105pts
Returned 89.32pts
P/L -15.68
Yield -14.93%
Strike rate 42.86% (3/7)

Weth
4.50 Marleybow 6/4 boy bog 15 pts Just a six runner race but an interesting debutant to the chasing scene in the Wylie colours for Johnson, a combination that has had a lot of success in recent seasons and look set to continue in their ways. Indeed the yard has already introduced some niceish prospects already this season in the likes of Drever Route, On Raglan Road, Striking Article to name a few. Marleybow is a very nicely bred horse to the jumping scene and looked a very smart horse when winning easily in a bumper on debut and that was a good bumper too, the horses behind were tropical straight (smart flat performer, second in the re routed ebor in fact) and planet of sound a nice hurdler from hobbs' yard who could be set for even better this year over fences. This one too looked nice on his hurdling bow when winning at carl. and doing so in decent enough style. Then it had some sort of problem to miss quite a while of last season before returning only to be outclassed in grade 2 events. Its had a break since then and returns today to make his chasing debut but clearly it can go well fto in a season, winning the last 2 times so that bodes well. It will be the quickest ground hes encountered so far, the trip and obviously jumping ability are also unknowns but looking at his background I dont see a real problem with the trip and I would imagine he has been schooled well enough for hsi jumping bow. Also im not quite convinced by the will of the second fav.

[fintron]

good luck with this Woody

[TheRat]

Yep, all the best Woody this season!

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 120pts
Returned 89.32pts
P/L -30.68
Yield -25.56%
Strike rate 37.5% (3/8)

Cheers for the support.

Chelt

3.30 Chord 25/1 var bog 5 pts e.w Should be a good race this. Donaldson very much respected down the weights and I suppose Shore Thing who has a line with it and hasnt stopped going forward since a defeat. However Chord could be a touch big at 25/1 here. This was a half useful handicapper on the flat with stoute despite the odd quirk. He took his time to get going over hurdles but he did eventually. He finished second twice behind a useful sort in songe. Indeed songe was good enough to be fourth at the TH at the fest. The hunt. second also looks good because other horses behind include norman the great who was good enough to split binocular and crack away jack earlier and even the half decent light yield so that is solid enough formlines. After that it was very highly tried and couldnt cope. At chelt. it was up with the very strong pace in the fred winter and unsuprisingly faded and then grade 1 at aintree was always going to be asking quite a lot. On his return this year he showed up pretty well but one cant help that a slightly easier ride. he went very quick early on that day, probably too quick really and was passed by an impressive winner who reopposes today. it may not be that easy to overcome that form today, noble alan was impressive enough on that ocassion but he does get an 8 pound pull for 8 lengths and he does have an extra 5 pounds off with a claimer on board. Also its possible that even though he first run back was satisfactory enough, it may not have been at his absolute best due to his strong pace so that offers hope too to get closer to noble alan. As i say for a couple of reasons might just have been ignored a bit too much.

4.05 Ardaghey 7/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Considered Parsons Legacy for a while as he could be fairly handicaped still and also goes fairly well fresh but I can see him running on again in a horse who might just need even further today. So going for another who has a great record fresh and fto in the season and thats Ardaghey who absolutely loves this meeting, last two times he has won on it. Just looking at his record fresh throughout his whole career, he won on debut, then beat the listener after a 3 month break in the same season, didnt win fto the next season as he ran into star de mohasion but he did win fto the following season at this meet and then of course last year he did exactly the same win at the meet. So clearly not only does he go well fresh (record seems to go downhill a bit after that) but he also relishes cheltenham. His mark has dropped back to 135, one pound lower than what it was at this same time last year and history suggests another bold bid on the cards for a yard that do so well at this time of the year, just like this horse.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 145pts
Returned 89.32pts
P/L -55.68
Yield -38.4%
Strike rate 30% (3/10)

Knew I should have gone with Parsons Legacy.

Chelt
3.25 Private Be 9/1 betfr 7.5 pts e.w Comes from an in from stable in hobbs who had a couple of winners here yesterday. Private Be was looking a useful chasing prospect for a while. In 2007 he won a couple of races including a good race at aintr. on national day when he beat the then jewson second for that year and did it well enough despite the odd wayward tendancy which he does show from time to time. After that win, he looked to have a good handicap in him and it could very well have been this race last year, he was cruising two out before being so unluckily brought down. He looked certain to be involved in the finish which included horses like knowhere, maljimar even comply or die was well down the field that day so there was certainly enough evidence to suggest it was a good race. After that he could never get any sort of form back and possibly still felt the exertions of such an unlucky experience. However today he is back after a break and clearly he can go well fresh and he is just the one pound lower than last year.

4.35 Supreme Duke 7/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w Another Hobbs runner. This one ran on a bumper and showed enough to be second behind seven is my number. After that he has just improved since he has encountered hurdles, not much of a first run but then came third before opening his account and doing so in a good race. In fact the horse he beat that day, woolcombe folly hasnt stopped winning since (4 times) and is now rated 147, whereas supreme duke is just 120. now od course the nicholls horse has improved in the meantime but even still it is a victory that looks very very decent to me and suggests supreme duke is capable of even better as he is entitled being realtively inexperienced still. Font's a non runner so lets see how he gets on today.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 175pts
Returned 113.7pts
P/L -61.3
Yield -35.02%
Strike rate 33.33% (4/12)

Just one today.
Kem
2.50 Greenbridge 2/1 var bog 15 pts Decent novice contest this one. Imsingingtheblues was a useful hurdler at times and could end up a decent chaser but I give preference to Greenbridge. Actually on hurdle rating between the two there is precious little in it but I just felt that towards the end of last season, Greenbridge really was developing into a classy horse and at a quick rate. He won two novice hurdles races in good style and the last win at this course was so impressive, won by 40 lengths. Not totally surprsingly after that, he was moved up to grade 1 level and finished midfield but that far from tells the whole story. He was travelling well at aintr. before a mistake 3 out that cost all momentum and virtually ended his challenge; so he is better than that result suggests. He has a chasing background in his family so no surprise to see him go over fences and as a scopey sort he could do well starting today at kem.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 190.5pts
Returned 113.7pts
P/L -76.3
Yield -40.05%
Strike rate 30.76% (4/13)

South
4.20 Argento Luna 10/11 var bog 15 pts Just the one jumps bet for me today and going with one from the sherwood stable. This one brings lots of bumper form to the table and unlike some of todays rivals, notably main market rival over sixty who there is a line with through one bumper performance when argento lun awas ahead of over sixty, also has a hurdles run and win to her name. It was a good win too at hunt., she won by 5 lengths that day and I like the second who gives the form a solid look to it. The second that day was gloucester who was good enough to run midfield in grade 2s and grade 3s previously and also since has run well at chelt in a race that was better than the hunt. race that argento luna won. That chelt race actually included horses with smart bumper form like cockney trucker, big eared fran. alfie flits and unfurled who give some classy flat an early hurdle form to that race too. So on the provision that argento luna was good enough to beat gloucester fto over hurdles and do it well too, i see no reason why she cant go close again today and defy the penalty particularly as her main rival is unproven over hurdles so far and wouldnt have her bumper ability either.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 205.5pts
Returned 113.7pts
P/L -91.3
Yield -44.42%
Strike rate 28.57% (4/14)

Ain
1.05 Rippling Ring 8/11 var bog 15 pts I must admit Im not that happy about the price here, odds on in a handicap is short but now and again one comes along that looks sure to be better than their current mark and this looks like one. For a start it brings classy flat form to the table including a grade 1 fourth behind jay peg, good enough to win a group 1 on dubai world cup night. Over hurdles it was so impressive on debut before running well especially for an inexperienced horse in the supreme when fifth. That form looks really strong now. The second binocular won so well afterwards at aintr. , snap tie the third beat katchit, the fourth ran well afterwards and won a big pot in ire., blue bajan won the swinton very well afterwards, tranquil sea has won since too. Looking at that one imagines that he will prove better than hisc urrent mark or certainly should have the ability to do so, plus I like the flatter track for such a classy flat act, the one to beat.

Chep
1.20 Hells Bay 12/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Been whispered in circles before that is perhaps better than has shown but today could just be the day to show it. Won bumper fto before a run that offers huge encouragement for today. Three went clear including this one and whilst the second hasnt really delivered, county zen the winner did to some extent. Last three runs it didnt as it completely blew out with a breathing issue the apparent excuse but before that had a victory over the classy blue bajan and a really good third in a race as competitive as the totesport gold cup and that reads so well. Hells Bay has since flattered to deceive it has to be said, fourth but well beaten which was a good race at newb. before blowing out lto when odds on. however he has had a break now and if he returns and builds on as his first hurdle run, then he is a major player for this who shouldnt be overlooked in particular for such a big and inform yard.

2.50 Forest Pennant 11/4 var 15 pts Think this is a horse with a huge future. Indeed over a fence at some stage and it could well be a RSA horse. However atm it is a hurdler and a good and progressive one too. Managed to win twice at chep and taunt. before running very well in a competitive race at san to be fourth and then showing real class for me to win at aint. under a fine ride. Held up and at one stage a mile off the leaders, he ran on very well to claim a relatively cosy win in the end and further confirm the improvement he had shown. He is 10 pounds higher once again today but he has 5 pounds of that claimed off with the rider today and considering how Im not even sure the bottom of this one has been reached, thats not impossible to overcome at all.

4.35 Pride of Dulcote 5/4 var bog 15 pts Looks a good opportunity to finally break his duck. Has ran well so far in some good races without winning over hurdles but this could be the day.His form is solid without that win, he fell at the last when in with a strong chance a couple of starts back, then he ran into oscar bay a decentish sort who has since won since and had some early form with forest pennant. After that he ran in a muddling race at perth but one that wasnt short on quality, the top 4 were clear and all are good sorts, lodge lane the winner looks a fine chaser in the making, of course the second tazbar has won a couple of grade 2s whilst viking rebel is another nice sort with a couple of wins so overall that is good strong form and a repeat of that puts him in with a great chance.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 265pts
Returned 318.08pts
P/L +53.08
Yield +20.03%
Strike rate 33.33% (6/18)

Weth
2.45 Yes Sir 2/1 sky 15 pts Pay Attention is respected after a big break and Frankie Figg dropping back in trip having made a bold effort lto over further before falling late on however Yes Sir showed a good and encouraging return to form and I think will really like the ground. He is a bit of veteran now who in the past has been effective over hurdles and fences with his bold front running style which he mainly applies. His run lto was very encouraging, despite the odd blunder, he battled onto be second in what normally is a hot race at chelt. and whilst the winner was different class on the day, the third and the fourth (bible lord and private be) give a solid feel about the form. That run aslo came at a time when he just ran third a few days earlier so it was a really brave effort. Since then he has gone up four pounds to 133 but even so that isnt massively harsh considering he was a 150+ horse at one point and whilst he isnt that good seemingly anymore, he has shown he still has some ability, should appreciate the quick ground and if he can get the better of a possible duel with frankie figg up front, then he should go close.

Utt
2.00 What a Friend 11/4 var bog 15 pts Owned I believe by SAF and in a hot race here. Carruthers actually was just in front of him in a hurdle clash and boosts smart hurdle form, Pancake already has chase form and ran well last year in grade 2s so has a class edge. What a Friend could relish this trip today, earlier in his hurdle days he often stayed on strongly at the end of races including once at chelt behind aigle d'or over 2 and a half miles in a grade 2 . He could never get into the grade 1 at the fest. but after a break and reportedly having schooled well for his chase debut, like so many of nicholls', over a trip that shapes as though it will suit, I think he can go well.

Down Roy
3.10 Aranleigh 85/40 vc 15 pts Interesting that McCoy comes over for a couple of rides and whilst most will think Jered is the main reason for the trip, Aranleigh also is a major factor. Indeed last year AP often came over to ride this one and on early form, I can understand why as this one showed huge promise. Aranleigh beat the huge talking horse, Mad rush in a bumper on debut and then was a classy third in the champion bumper at the festival. Over hurdles he performed at times, beat made in taipan who is a solid 140+ rated hurdler, then dead heated with woodbine willie who went onto have a clutch of good placed efforts in graded races afterwards. After that he couldnt quite make the step up himself in grade 2s but he showed enough over bumpers and hurdles to suggest he could be a ncie jumping prospect, the ground is no problem and interesting that mccoy is over to ride him.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 310pts
Returned 419.33pts
P/L +109.33
Yield +35.26%
Strike rate 38.09% (8/21)

Asc
1.05 Modicum 10/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w Leads the weights here but a bold bid very possible. He was an ok sort of hurdler who ended up 130 rated but he appears better as a chaser. Even on debut he chased home hobbs hill and that straight away was a very good run, behind cebrus libani was a fair run before a bit disappointing on soft ground after that. however when switched to a sound surface he was too good fro desert quest before a really good performance at aintr. when although he was well beaten by tidal bay and takeroc, his third place finish was very creditible indeed and is why he is on a mark of 148. Now that at first glance seems a bit steep to me but when you look through the form with hobbs hill, tidal bay etc it becomes more understandable and given how the nature of the race could suit his strong cruising speed, I think he can go quite well.

1.35 County Zen 12/1 wh 7.5 pts e.w Sentry Duty 22/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Going for two here. County Zen was a classy hurdler at the start of the last season, he beat blue bajan of levels at this course and gets an amazing pull with that one today, he also chased home imsingingtheblues on better ground so he can go well on good ground, he won on testing ground at san. with three horses pulling clear inclu. hells bay who was awesome last week. His third in a race as competitive as the tote gold cup aslo reads very well, blue bajan behind again. The minus is the poor way he finished last season but his trainer believes that is down to a breathing problem which he has been operated on and if thats the case then he has to be really feared here given how 130 looks a lenient mark for me. I have also put in sentry duty as there is a feeling around that the time to catch him is now when fresh. He won fto over hurdles and was so classy. He thrashed celestial halo who went onto win the TH and it really was a top performance and one that makes a mark of 134 seem very fair, even donaldson behind in third is a smart yardstick. True things didnt happen afterwards in the supreme and over in ire. but fresh today on good ground I think he is worth ago at a price.

2.05 Abragante 6/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Nice race. Air Force One and Roll Along bring classy novice form from last season to the race and both are feared. Roll Along in particular is a horse i am keeping an eye on for extreme trips in the future, I think the way he stayed on in the RSA suggested to me in the future he could well be a National horse and that race has such a good record for producing future National winners. He also can go well fresh but I just feel that he could be vulnerable to another horse who can go well fresh in abraganate and also that roll allong may have other priorities later on in the season. Abragante is a quirky horse but murphy gets on well with him and fto could be the time to catch him and the trainer finally now has had a winner. For example last season he was most impressive fto when winning a listed race at winc. He is 9 pounds higher today than that day and this is a better race, however given that he can go well fresh, also he is not excessively bad treated (he was 14 pounds higher for that winc win at one point and that was beyond him), also if he is a similar standard to his hurdle form he could still have the odd pound in hand and given how there looks to be a strong pace for him today, it could set up nicely for him late on although I will be watching how Roll Allong gets on too.

2.40 Mad Max 6/5 var bog 15 pts Massive horse this one, absolute beast and in time he shapes like he could well be a chaser. however for now he makes his hurdle bow having showed some ability in bumpers, winning both his starts by staying on strongly and the second of them he beat some fair types in a graded win which jsut shows the level of ability. Starts of at 2m today and possibly there is a slight question in my mind as to if he will need further in time and also whether as he is so big, will he be agile enough for hurdles or more just a chaser but he has obvious class for this particular race, leo lucky star sets a solid standard but carrying penalties make him possibly vulnerable. Be interesting to see how Mad Max gets on.

3.15 Ringaroses 13/5 spo 15 pts Niceish race this. I actually think that russian around is semi feared given that he can clearly go well fresh having beat noland on his hurdle bow and was with acambo at the last on his chase bow before both fell at the last independently. however Ringaroses could just be a serious horse for his tariner this season over fences. Won nicely in a couple of bumpers before a ncie start too to his hurdle career, won both of his first two starts and then after a big break was second when staying on strongly behind backboard. After that he was fancied for the coral cup but another setback curtailed him from that and clearly he has been a horse who has suffered in the past. however that does mean he is lightly raced and coudl still develop into a nice chaser, he comes from a decent family and it will be interesting to see how he goes on his chase bow.

3.50 Riverside Theatre 5/4 var bog 15 pts Has a penalty against some unknowns from soem powerful yards and the odd talking horse. Kangaroo Court would be one such example that I have heard the odd snippet about. However this one sets a strong standard of form and is much respected from such a powerful yard. On debut on good ground he won at kem. in race that has produced the odd nice type and then lto he was third in what always is a competive race and whilst the front pair were a fair bit clear, there isnt much shame in that given what both of those have done at the start of their hurdle career, he was a clear third on his own.

Weth
3.00 Liberate 7/2 var bog 15 pts There has been a fair bit of talk from the nicholls camp of how mobasher has improved a lot this summer and he was ahead of liberate at chelt last year but I just feel that in these conditions, liberate who already is peaked for the season with a recent flat run under his belt, could be a tough nut to crack. Afterall liberate was a good juvenille and in the TH was ahead of mobasher when chasing home katchit. He was a bit in and out last year but he ran well towards the end of the year when he got conditiosn he needed, quick ground and a trip and had a nice victory on his last hurdle run at hay. and I can see him getting the better of mobasher today and going very clsoe to winning overall.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 415pts
Returned 674.33pts
P/L +259.33
Yield +62.49%
Strike rate 35.72% (10/28)

Good 22/1 winner last week.
Naas
1.15 Jayo 8/1 vc 7.5 pts e.w Good contest this one with the likes of wins now, made in taipan and rare bob all threats. However despite the obvious class of those ones, I just wonder if all of them may find 2m a bit sharp. All of them have some form and mainly their latest form over hurdles which is over further and it could prove that despite it being soft ground, they could be vulnerable to a speedier type in jayo. Jayo also has a good record fto each season having won on both his starts in ire over hurdles. Indeed last season jayo devolped into a very consistent handicap hurdler, admittedly not quite of the class of some of these over hurdles but good enough with wins at fair and cork and some solid efforts in big handicaps at punch and the tote gold cup. He has no problem whatsoever with soft ground and 2m today is perfect distance unlike what it is for some of these he and could be an interesting recruit to fences.

Kel
12.30 Pakineo des Pictons 11/8 spo 15 pts Could develop into a clash here between the murphy horse and the johnson horse but I give preference to the former. Pakineo des Pictos already has a run over a fences and I suppose it was a bit lacklustre when actually bumping into a nice johnson type but the race showed his limitations. He found 2m too sharp really and not surprisingly is upped in trip today and given his french pedigree which has stamina to the fore front, that shouldnt be a problem at all. Also one would expect him to come on a fair bit for that first run and he is well regarded by the yard who have started slowly but the good ones, ie. naaid du misselot can still run well enough. Another factor which edges it for murphys horse here for me is that the johnosn horse, teenage idol, who just has bumper form, hasnt really seen much come from his bumper lto at ayr, normally a strong event. The winner flopped as a big fav on his hurdle bow, the second and third showed limited ability too so that encourages as well.

San
1.20 Planet of Sound 11/4 var bog 15 pts Free World respected but he was a bit disappointing i thought over hurdles at the end of last season and indeed was behind planet of sound. Now it could prove fences make him but dont be surprised if fences suit planet of sound too. Planet of Sound developed into a fair hurdler last season and lto probably put up his best performance when beating calagary bay, working title and the above mentioned free world. Free World looks a bit short to me and more based on rep. and therefore it could open the event and reportedly planet of soudn has schooled quite well and could be a nice sort for his chase bow.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 460pts
Returned 674.33pts
P/L +214.33
Yield +46.59%
Strike rate 32.25% (10/31)

Nav
1.25 Jaffonnien 5/1 var bog 10 pts Could be a warmish grade 3 this. One of the most unexposed runners is jaffonnien. So far he just has one run and win in a bumper but it was a hugely impressive win and went straight into my notebook afterwards. The form of that win has worked out extremely well especially by bumper standards, the second has won sicne as has the third, sixth, seventh and the eigth so lots of substance to that effort. how he gets on over hurdles will be interesting but it is significant that connections have thought him good enough to go into a graded event straight away.

1.55 Aitmatov 9/2 var bog 15 pts Another hot race with the likes of Kazal, Catch Me, Hardy Eustace plus a couple of interesting mares. Probably taking most prominance is the clash once again between Aitmatov and Kazal. Kazal a real grinder who is most effective in bog like conditions and has had victories over Aitmatov in the past. However i give prefernce to Aitmatov who i think has his ideal trip today. He has been tried at 2m and 3m with mixed success but at this sort of middle distance he is a major threat and especially at this time of the season. Last season he was very impressive early on in the season like a lot of Meade horses, he got up late on at this distance to beat Sweet Kiln once in a graded event proving once again that he can go on slower ground. His form did dip a bit afterwards but that was the case for lots of Meade horses and during that time included being behind Kazal twice, once over a trip that may have stretched him. However with Meade starting the season well and with Aitmatov probbaly running over his ideal trip, I give preference to him.

2.55 Schindlers Hunt 9/2 bet3 bog 15 pts Top class in his novice chaser as he won a couple of grade 1 events before only a clerical error stopped him taking his chance at the arkle. His form was a bit below par early on last season but he ran a fine race to be fourth in the QMCC, he set a lot of the running that day and whilst well beaten by the awesome Master Minded, he deserves a lot of credit for his performance and was a bit unlukcy to have third spot taken late on. After that he won a big chase ahead of mansony who was giving weight but was still well put in his place by schindlers hunt. Mansony just got the edge over him very narrowly in a grade 1 after that to prove their is little between them but I just feel that Schindlers Hunt looks to have good conditions today. The ground is absolutely fine for him, so is 2m whereas Mansony has hinted of late that he may need a trip now. Another horse I like is Scotirish but he has a couple of issues, one his jumping but also the decision to drop him back in trip when he seemed to thrive over an increased trip at the end of last season.

3.25 Aran concerto 5/6 spo 15 pts Massive hype horse this one and that probably does not do him justice. Meade once famously and arguably regrettably said it was the best horse he ever trained. Still he was top class in typical Meade fashion early on two years back over hurdles, he won a couple of grade 1 events in good style and looked a real star, the fact he went off just 5/2 at chelt. said it all but he ran maybe a bit below par that day. Still ran repectably but he paid for a mistake two out and ended up fifth in a strongish ballymore that year. He then had the odd niggle that kept him back for a year but that could end up suiting him in the long term. Certainly it is a hugley respected chasing bow, he ought to have been well schooled, he is a fascinating runner, could be end up cheltenham class?

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 515pts
Returned 701.83pts
P/L +186.83
Yield +36.27%
Strike rate 31.42% (11/35)

Bang
1.25 Carrick Oscar 11/4 bet3 bog 15 pts Put this up earlier this season over hurdles where he was a creditible third and he be fitter for that run today. Anyway today he moves to fences for the first time and looks a sort that could do fairly well over them, having boasted solid hurdle form including an early victory over mark the book, some ok runs in heavy ground showing no problems with the conditions today and of course lto's effort. Still very lightly raced for an 8 year old, he could have a future over fences if he takes to them today, ground no problem and trainer done well with the runners he has had so far this season.

2.00 Mr Strachan 4/1 lad 15 pts Bob Bob Bobbin is moving onto a nice handicap mark but is a horse I just have not got right in the last season or two and Im not sure how many more chances Im giving it. Mr Strachan is another horse who could be well handicapped, the fact he went off fav for the Jewson at chelt. says something. Earlier his chase form adds up well, just behind l'antartique and ahead of ungaro, not too far off tidal bay, ahead of arkle second kruguyrova and that all reads well and looks better than a 131 horse really. His form did tail off a bit at the end of the season but lto last year he did prove he could get this trip, earlier in his hurdle days he had no problem at all with heavy ground and indeed relished it. Solid claims.

Kem
2.15 Duc De Regniere 2/1 var bog 15 pts Never really happened for him as a chaser last year despite early promise behind tidal bay and an easy early win. However back to hurdles over a c and d he relishes, he could still be a big threat. His limited hurdle form shows lots of promise, on his bri. bow he beat osana no less and even the third that day is a solid 140+ horse. Then over c and d he won well enough to beat battlecry who has since proved a good chaser. At the fest. that year he ran below par somewhat but given how lightly raced he is, there is no reason as to why he wont improve further this year initially as a hurdler and maybe as a chaser in the future.

2.50 Imsingingtheblues 5/6 var 15 pts Very impressive chasing debutant from this one, beat greenbridge, a horse who was good over hurdles and since ran behind another nicholls horse perhaps below par, and beat him very well too. For a novice jumped very well over c and d and quite frankly dominated the race and it wasnt a surprise to see arkle quotes afterwards. He was a good enough hurdler particularly early on last season with victories of the talented hobbs pair county zen and the top class snap tie when getting weight but the suggestion could be that he ends up perhaps a better chaser, certainly evidence of first run encourages. It is a real tough task today against more experienced horses like modicum (great third last season at aint. but disappointing since) but imsingingtheblues could be up to it especially if he jumps like he did last time.

[WoodyTHFC]

Staked 575pts
Returned 754.33pts
P/L +179.33
Yield +31.18%
Strike rate 30.76% (12/39)

Chelt
1.15 Millards Lad 20/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Tricky race this I feel but a horse possibly overlooked is Millards Lad. Last season initially Millards Lad was progressive, he won three chases on the trot, improving all the time a couple of solid seconds. Indeed the second here was a fine run, only just went down in a good handicap involving the likes of irish raptor, an accordian who travelled well before a mistake, so there is real substance in that race and millards lad still produced a fine effort. Sure after that he has disappointed a bit before having a couple of hurdle runs in the summer but on earlier form he cant be ignored, he can go well fresh, track and ground no problem either.

3.35 Tamadot 14/1 wh 7.5 pts e.w Quite lightly raced this one and showed useful ability last season. The second run especially reads very well in a warm race at newb., fourth that day and horses around him have done no harm to that form with pettifour the winner improving markedly since and is now a legit. wh contender, the second and third also won after that race and it wasnt really a surprise to see tamadot come out and do similar afterwards on soft ground. Then he ran into herecomesthetruth who now looks a fine chasing prospect (see below) so no real harm with that form. He did run poorly on his last hurdle start and that is a bit of a concern but after a break, with a promisng 8 pound claimer on and with patches of fair form especially the second run at newb. he has solid claims in a competitive race.

4.05 Herecomesthetruth 13/10 spo 15 pts Very impressed with this one on its chasing bow. I was on crescent island who has won since but knew a long way out that this one was travelling far better and ended up a good winner at chep. He looks made for jumping being a former point winner but he showed enough over hurdles that he has some amount of class and as I say was impressive lto, jumping well and proving an easy winner. Some decent opposition today, the strong travelling razor royale probably the biggest threat and he looked a threat before falling behind ring the boss lto and himself was a good hurdler, better than these. However Im not totally convinced what the NTD horse finds off the bridle and due to his fall lto when things were getting serious, we never found out that day and besides he could just be bumping into one here.