Windsor 29/06/08

[billy the punter]

Three decent flat cards tomorrow as I will take a rare look in Ireland, so thought I'd try and get a head start.

2.35

If you didn't get to the wedding you shouldn't go to the funeral. So, although Willkandoo has done nothing wrong of late, I've decided to oppose him. I can't back him off a 14lb higher mark if I haven't played already on him.

I have backed Charmels Lad on his past two starts though. I was pleased with myself before his handicap debut thinking I've unearthed a dark horse, however he was a little unlucky in running shaping as if further than the 6f trip would suit.

I was disappointed with his run NTO at GL but will give him another chance here over a mile. I'd be happier over 7f but he showed enough last season to suggest a mile is within his capabilities - he is certainly no sprinter based on what I've seen this season.

The stable are in much better form now also.

I'm not Brian Meehan's biggest fan but I've toyed with backing Mr Hichens on more than once. He ran well on debut but disappointed on his next two maiden starts.

He was given a mark of 70 and ran ok on his handicap debut. He was 5th to Vineyard here in a race that has worked out ok.

He stepped up on that effort NTO when 2nd at Newmarket although he did hang his chance away. It wasn't a great race and although he did pull well clear of the 3rd I think a 5lb rise is harsh.

The blinds could bring out the improvement needed however and I'll give him a chance here.

Addikt is 4lb better off for finishing infront of Mr Hichens in the race that Vineyard won and has to enter calculations on that.

Didn't stay 10f LTO but looks like a horse that should that doesn't turn good runs into wins enough. Needs things to drop right it would seem.

Charmels Lad 40% of stake
Mr Hichens 40% of stake
Addikt 20% of stake

Hoping for around 8/1 for all selections

Plus combos


3.05

Heaven was so unlucky LTO and runs here off the same mark. Yes, everyone saw it and knows it, yes the price will reflect, BUT his previous form puts him in with a massive chance anyway as this looks a poor race, even by Class 5 standards.

He ran well against his elders in May and in fact ALL of his career runs (bar his debut) suggests he is well handicapped off 67. Eg his 3rd to Good Gorsoon with Bookibasher Dude in 2nd (last August).

Short price but should be shorter, on the book. I won't be going overboard as I don't like 'obvious' selections.

Heaven 100% of stake 2.1 betfair


3.40 (Class 3)

Porthole is so hard to weigh up, he did win with ease LTO, but he beat little. He probably showed a similar level of form to what he showed on his debut last season when 3rd in a decent Newmarket maiden.

His mark of 88 doesn't scream leniency, seems about right. At the price I'm overlooking him.

I was very sweet on Swinging Sixties LTO and was shocked he didn't play a hand in the finish at York. He looked like he'd come on for the run when making a winning debut at Newmarket and I thought his mark of 86 was a winnable one.

The 2nd at Newmarket, ran well NTO off 82 and will surely be winning soon off that mark. the 5l 3rd was odds on NTO but failed to act at Brighton and the run should be ignored. The 9l 4th bolted up off 70 at Windsor and looks an 80 horse all day long. They were a distance clear of the remainder.

So although not over lenient I thought given the expected improvement, he'd be able to win off a mark of 86 . I prepared to forgive the run as it was at York. He was quite keen in rear that day and Windsor should suit more and he'll know a little more this time too. The yard had a handicap winner here on Monday and they never seem to be out of form. Dropped a pound also.

Meydan Dubai had a consistent 2yo campaign without winning. He started the season on a mark of 89 and was a pleasing never nearer 5th to Dantulm over a mile at Newmarket. Disappointed on firm going over the same C&D NTO when yard wasn't firing. Found 7f at Epsom too sharp NTO and was hampered, wasn't disgraced however.

He did take the eye last time out however and I mentioned him in my Royal Ascot overview. He was 9th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (6th on the far side) beaten less than 6l. He again looked in need of further than the 7f and didn't get a totally clear passage. Although he had a welter weight not many 3yo run well in the big Royal Ascot handicaps so this run cannot be ignored.

He has been dropped another 4lb for that run and runs off 84 now. He is upped in trip, but to 1m2f - so staying has to be taken on trust, although running style over 1m and stamina on the sire's side suggest it's a definite possibility he'll get this trip.

Stable flying at the minute (although just 5% S/R here) and he must surely find a race soon. Will chance him here and wouldn't be put off by a defeat, think it could pay to follow him over his next few runs.

Swinging Sixties 70% of stake
Meydan Dubai 30% of stake 11.5 betfair


4.50 (Class 3)

To follow

[WoodyTHFC]

3.40 Porthole 9/4 var bog 15 pts. Third on debut last season in what was a good hq maiden, loads of winners from that race and fulfilled the promise showed from that lto when he won nicely at windsor a couple of weeks back and really extended towards the finish in the fashion of a smart horse. Makes his handicap bow today and is less exposed than many of these in the race today.

[billy the punter]

Addikt a NR in the 2.35. Mr Hichens is around 7/1 and Charmels Lad is over 12/1. Split stakes now.

[Guy Fawkes]

3.05
Not sure there's a lot of pace on in the race and with Heaven a very short favourite and 9 runners, going to look for an E/W bet and think I have found one in KALLIGAL who will make all from the outside stall. The filly was 3rd here 3 weeks ago in a class 4 and ran ok on only her 2nd start on GF (came 3rd again in only other start on GF). Has continued to fall down the weights (has yet to win) and is now, obvioulsy, at a career low mark which I am hoping she can take advantage of. Steve Drowne has a decent record here and is in decent form and whilst the field looks to have it all to do with HEAVEN, i'm hoping she can at least trouble the market leader.

[Tipster5000]

I dont have a lot of time to put write ups on these cards but i will put my selections up 2.35 Mr Hichens could have problems carrying top weight but could be a improving horse, Dream Sea is my best bet to place. Advice Mr Hichens 1 Point Win Dream Sea 1 Point E/W 3.05 Enodoc Should place in this race at a good price, Heaven will have to improve to win, Kalligal could also go close if heaven cant Win. Advice Enodoc 1 Point E/W Kalligal 1 Point E/W Heaven 1 Point Win. 3.40 Ellemujie has a great opportunity to place here or could even do better, Swinging Sixties will also need to improve to win but Jarvis does have a good record with there 3 year olds. Advice Swinging Sixties 1 Point Win Ellemujie 1 Point E/W. 4.15 Doughnut should be best of the rest here and should get another win under his belt, Kerrys Requiem could be close behind. Advice Doughnut 1 Point Win. Kerrys Requiem 1 Point E/W. 4.50 Very open race but i can see Cape of luck running a big race so this could be a E/W bet as he is the rank outsider of the group. Advice Cape Of Luck 0.5 Point E/W. 5.25 Wouldnt usually get involved with this race but Dance The Star could be a good option. Advice Dance The Star 0.5 Point E/W.

[billy the punter]

4.50 Windsor (Class 3)

Guilded Warrior is sure to be popular after running well in the Victoria Cup and going close from a wide draw at Chester LTO. He did manage to pop out and lead early from that wide draw so the run could be over rated.

I looking elsewhere at the price though, especially under Fergus Sweeney.

Hucking Heist is an unbeaten unknown quantity. Form of the win not great but yard's 3yo's don't usually win FTO so improvement can almost be guarateed - if all is well after a long lay off obviously. Mark of 77 not that harsh given the expected improvement and with yard flying and Spencer booked isn't going to be ignored by me. Will keep a close eye on the betting though due to his long break.

Twilight Star is a horse I've backed a few times this year and I was rewarded when he won at a big price at Sandown. Still well handicapped (2lb higher than that win) and I'm ignoring his last run - I wasn't happy at all with the ride from Durcan, he gave the horse no cover, saw too much daylight and didn't run his race as a result - is much better than that.

Hucking Heist 50% of stake 4.4 betfair
Twilight Star 50% of stake 9 betfair

[Verisimilitude]

FEASIBLE 2.35 Windsor. 1 point win. Not been doing too bad and this race can be run to suit. Will need all to drop right even still, but I think with questions surrounding most others make ups, this one can go well at a nice price.

[stewartd14]

Event	4.15 Windsor
Selection	To the Point (BOG)
Strength	10/10
Date	29/06/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 2.63 (Back)
Reasoning	I strongly fancied Doughnut last time out, but I am opposing him this time with the Ed McMahon trained To The Point. I thought Doughnut was dissapointing last time, and would rather be with this speedy sort. He showed blistering pace on his debut, and was then sent off favourite for a Grp 2 race at York. On his 2nd start, he was just slightly too inexperienced and couldnt get a blow in. However, today sees him drop down in class again and I expect him to have too much speed and class for the rest.

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Addikt a NR in the 2.35. Mr Hichens is around 7/1 and Charmels Lad is over 12/1. Split stakes now.

Gutted with Mr Hichens - went clear and put the breaks on.

[billy the punter]

3.05

Heaven was so unlucky LTO and runs here off the same mark. Yes, everyone saw it and knows it, yes the price will reflect, BUT his previous form puts him in with a massive chance anyway as this looks a poor race, even by Class 5 standards.

He ran well against his elders in May and in fact ALL of his career runs (bar his debut) suggests he is well handicapped off 67. Eg his 3rd to Good Gorsoon with Bookibasher Dude in 2nd (last August).

Short price but should be shorter, on the book. I won't be going overboard as I don't like 'obvious' selections.

Heaven 100% of stake 2.1 betfair

After R4 deductions it make the price taken around 5/6.

Was still available 4/5 on course- was entitled to be shorter. Won well in the end.

[Falbrav]

4.15 Windsor. White Shift. Lay. Racing Post SP 4/1.

Has the form to go close, but fairly exposed now and has to concede weight to a few much more unexposed types. Needs them to fail in improvement and find her own best, but at 4/1 it's well worth a lay much more than a play, irrespective of the end result.

[puntyboy]

Originally Posted by Tipster5000

Yaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhh dance the star 90/1 (9 euro) my biggest ever priced winner u sir are a legend I love U!!!!!!!!:rol lin

[Spooner]

Nice winner however a bit of reason and more people might of got on!!

[Tipster5000]

Spooner i never had time to put a reasoning down mate sorry had a good day here though 4 Winning bets out of 6.

[tedthewolf]

Well Done Tipster Keep those big priced horses coming

[Spooner]

Originally Posted by Tipster5000

Spooner i never had time to put a reasoning down mate sorry had a good day here though 4 Winning bets out of 6.

40's in the morning so no need to be sorry just feel people would take more notice if you add a couple lines of reasoning. You added reasoning for some of the other horses you put up in the same post.

I am not having a go either just incase you report me.

[Tipster5000]

I wouldnt do that mate the problem i had was i tipped every race and was running out of time. Thanks for all your kind words hopefully i can do better tommorow.