Wednesday - Lay Of The Day

[wicked]

5.05 Gowran Park - Earth Magic, rpf 7/4

This is the sort that I like to lay, one where I can find little reason for a low price and others that have every chance. As I see it Earth Magic is up against 3 others that have won at the distance and 2 that are proven on the going. Has a chance being dropped back to 16f under a competent apprentice, but seems to go better on firmer ground, and consider Charlie Yardbird, Line Ball & Gripit N Tipit as having far better records over todays distance and going. Trainer has yet to get off the mark with a winner.

[kira]

Hello. Can I join in please?

4.10 The Last Drop.

Being female, I am not very good on the write-up front, but I am laying this basically because I just can't work out why it is so short. It hasn't really shown a thing, plus hasn't run for a year. At least two can beat it by my calculations.

[Falbrav]

MODERN VERSE 4.20 Catterick.

You're only as good as your last lay, and that makes me absolutely awful! Going through the cards today, this one stood out as one to oppose. I know the price has gone now and it's a bit big, but when you look deep into this race, you just can't see how this horse can win. Trainer Alan Swinbank last week was quoted as saying "He might be capable of winning a maiden but i expect him to make up into a useful middle distance handicapper" so that in itself is a reason to oppose with this being the extended 5f. The ground should be o.k, but he still has to prove it, and all in all it does appear the horse is running for a handicap mark and so couldn't ever be backed until stepping up in trip and going into handicaps. Not much more I can add to be honest, apart from I'd be very surprised if he went and won!

Good luck one and all.

http://layntradetheproway.blogspot.com

[Mighty Magyar]

Originally Posted by kira

Hello. Can I join in please?

4.10 The Last Drop.

Being female, I am not very good on the write-up front, but I am laying this basically because I just can't work out why it is so short. It hasn't really shown a thing, plus hasn't run for a year. At least two can beat it by my calculations.

and good luck

[Mighty Magyar]

4.30 Lingfield- Takitwo Ran poorly on only visit to track, running quickly after poor show last time. Goes up in weights on Saturday seems to be running because of this.

[zal007]

5.20 Catterick - Mandurah (F/Cast 3.25)

Pretty Selma offers up a suitable alternative here - improving horse and won last time out last month - feel like this horse has more to go and should give Mandurah a good run. Not sure 5f is the right distance either for Mandurah seems more suited to slightly longer.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by Mighty Magyar

4.30 Lingfield- Takitwo Ran poorly on only visit to track, running quickly after poor show last time. Goes up in weights on Saturday seems to be running because of this.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4.30 Lingfield
Selection	Takitwo (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 3.50 (Lay)
Reasoning	Doesn't like Lingfield that much. And it's not a worthy favourite. Arctic Desert and Special Place stand a very good chance of winning and will make it hard. A definite lay for me.

[stewartd14]

Originally Posted by kira

Hello. Can I join in please?

4.10 The Last Drop.

Being female, I am not very good on the write-up front, but I am laying this basically because I just can't work out why it is so short. It hasn't really shown a thing, plus hasn't run for a year. At least two can beat it by my calculations.

Of course you can join, in fact I agree with you as well.

However for me it has to be,

3.50 Catt Sir Orpen

A consistent performer but he doesnt seem to be able to win very often. He won well on his reappearance over course and distance last season but could not win since. He may go well fresh but I see many potential challengers including the Dandy Nicholls runner and I think, as favourite, he should be opposed.

[robsterling]

Resplendent Alpha -

• Trainer form doesn't read great, 1 win from 24 since 21 March. However only 3 of these horses were favs (a lot were upwards of 10/1).
• Won off 2lbs lighter than todays weight of 9-2 in October in Cl3 and followed it up with a 2nd in Cl1, both over 6f.
• Since October had only one run 16 March at Deauville where it finished 8th, with Shane Kelly on board who rides again today. Before that, it had 2 wins, 2 seconds from 4 races.

Cesc -

• Twice a course winner, once at todays distance of 7f the other at 8f.
• Was in good form in november/december with a hattrick including the two wins mentioned above. Eddie Ahern was on board then and is again today.
• Races at 9-2 today, 2 of its hattrick wins were at 9-7.
• Its first race after the break finished 2nd last, but this was Cl1 race.
• Recent trainer form, 1 win from 6 (not a lot can be read into from this).

Majuro -

• 3 wins and a 2nd from 6 starts. These have been in Cl5 and Cl4 whereas todays race is Cl3.
• Hasn't ran since 10 Oct.
• Races off 9-0 today, has won 3lbs heavier than this.
• Trainer Mick Channon has only 1 win from 31 since 28 March, has suffered a bit of seconditis.

Heywood - NR

I think that all 3 of these horses are in with a good chance, there is not a lot too choose in what will be a very tactical race. I can understand why Resplendent Alpha is the fav after his second in Cl1, but with Shane Kelly on board today who only rode this horse for the 8th at Deauville. Therefore I think Resplendent Alpha should be layed at the short odds of 1.79 available on Betfair, and I think this price could go in.

[wicked]

Originally Posted by wicked

5.05 Gowran Park - Earth Magic, rpf 7/4

This is the sort that I like to lay, one where I can find little reason for a low price and others that have every chance. As I see it Earth Magic is up against 3 others that have won at the distance and 2 that are proven on the going. Has a chance being dropped back to 16f under a competent apprentice, but seems to go better on firmer ground, and consider Charlie Yardbird, Line Ball & Gripit N Tipit as having far better records over todays distance and going. Trainer has yet to get off the mark with a winner.

Unplaced, finished 4th behind Charlie Yardbird and Gripit N Tipit, with Line Ball a non runner.

Some excellent tips and write ups today, so many thanks everyone for making the effort.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Should have done the forecast

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by stewartd14

3.50 Catt Sir Orpen

Stewart, mate .. of so much lays .. you picked exactly the one, that won ... it's aaaaaaaaaaaalways the way .. always

[stewartd14]

ROBSTERLING - Please, please post the TIME and preferably COURSE with your selections. Cracking write up though, just please try to help me out and type in the 3 little numbers that make up the race time.
Cheers

		Today
Liability	7145.77	211.67
Returns	7391.57	241.67
Profit	+245.8	+30