Royal Hunt Cup Draw

[billy the punter]

There are rarely any excuses with regards to the draw in the Hunt Cup and most years you can win from any draw.

Where do you think the best draw will be this year?

The pace is always an issue with such matters, this is where I see the pace;

Draw

1. >>>
2. >>>>>>
3. >>>>>>>>>>>>>
4. >>>>>>
5. >>>>>>>>>
6. >>>
7. >>>>>>>>>
8. >>>>>>>>>
9. >>>
10. >>>>>>>>>>>>>
11. >>>>>>
12. >>>
13. >>>>>>>>>>>>>
14. >>>>>>>>>>>>>
15. >>>>>>>>>>>>>
16. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
17. >>>>>>
18. >>>
19. >>>>>>>>>
20. >>>
21. >>>
22. >>>>>>
23. >>>
24. >>>
25. >>>>>>
26. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
27. >>>
28. >>>
29. >>>
30. >>>>>>>>

Looks likely that the pace will be down the middle, perhaps they'll come down in an arrow formation.

[welshman443]

7 of the last 11 were drawn no more than six places away from either rail

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by welshman443

7 of the last 11 were drawn no more than six places away from either rail

Interesting, but personaly that wouldn't be a strong enough stat for me to act on.

You're looking at 12 runners each year (40%), so you'd expect them to win 5 of the last 11 on probabilty alone.

So they do over perform, but only slightly.

[welshman443]

do you think the outcome of this race will have a bearing on the outcome of the wokingham on the saturday

[billy the punter]

There would have to be a significant advantage for one side for them to be knock on effect.

With this ground I think any advantage would be 'blamed' on the pace and therefore the Wokingham would/should be judged on its merits.

I don't think anyone will be unhappy with their draw for Wednesday. Those high will say it's good as all the fancied horses are high, lows will say it's always good be be drawn low and the middles will say they are drawn where the pace is.

There shouldn't be any excuses as such, although for me I think the highs may be at a disadvantage - maybe I'm wishful thinking as my long term fancy and a horse close to me has a low draw!

[welshman443]

i wish you all the luck with your selections billy,i did read somewhere earlier that there is supposed to be a bit of rain moving in on wednesday till friday if it happens or not its a diffrent matter ,i fancy tombi for the wokingham sat as genki is a non runner now,so i will be waiting to see the effects of the draw wednesday

[billy the punter]

Thanks mate, likewise.

It will be interesting with regards to the rain. I thought Genki may not run, I fancied him but only had 10% of my ante-post stake on him as I had a gut feeling he'd be a NR.

[welshman443]

"Tuesday will be bright and sunny but there remains a small risk of showers. Conditions will however turn very wet from Wednesday onwards withheavy and persistent rainfall moving in for the remainder of the week," a spokeswoman said -thats what i read earlier billy

[bowles10]

drawn 4-1-5-6 say no more

still dont understand why they didnt go to the far rail, nothing is going to win down the centre this week. How many horses have won up the nearside rail or mid to near, all of them from what i have seen.

Maybe some rain may help the draw, not sure?

[Gingertipster]

Don't forget Bowles there have only been three Royal Ascots at this course. It is different to it was before the changes.
The cambered home bend may have had an effect on the horses racing on the straight course, on the far side. It is also more difficult on round or straight course to come from behind, in anything but a strongly run race. The uphill finish just is not there anymore.

It is too soon to be jumping to any solid conclusions about draw advantage. It could still be where the best pace is. But there is a possibility of a bias.

Ginge

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by Gingertipster

Don't forget Bowles there have only been three Royal Ascots at this course. It is different to it was before the changes.
The cambered home bend may have had an effect on the horses racing on the straight course, on the far side. It is also more difficult on round or straight course to come from behind, in anything but a strongly run race. The uphill finish just is not there anymore.

It is too soon to be jumping to any solid conclusions about draw advantage. It could still be where the best pace is. But there is a possibility of a bias.

Ginge

agreed they did re-lay the straight track & not much has come from behind this year. Up with the pace runners have done well so far. What i have heard before is that one sode of the track can be firmer than the other side, if thats the case, then it may be 2L better off. I fell foul as i backed Lucky Leigh in the 4.55 race & it won far side but ended a close 4th in the race. Same with Dandy man yesterday. I was just surprised they elected to avoid the far rail for the Hunt cup, this would have helped Bankable more as no way was it going to win from that stall & ending up down the near side.

[Lady Sports Punter]

I very much fancy Intrepid Jack in the Wokingham placed GBP 200 EW @ 14/1 with VC Bet. Obviously the draw is a major factor but with Ryan Moore on board its a cracking ew bet, the horse was finishing like a train over 5 furlongs so 6f should be spot on, but again needs to be drawn with the pace, the hunt cup top 4 being drawn low.

Any views re the above?

[Cassius Marcellus]

Yes.

Ryan Moore is an unlucky bastard.

Over 60 rides and still winnerless at RA.

A shame for one so talented.

[billy the punter]

We didn't really learn anything bout the draw from the Hunt Cup. It was a case of where the pace was.

With only one front runner draw higher than 17 they were always going to be 10 behind at half way.

[JackJarvis]

It is interesting that Philip Robinson (one of the best judges in the game) is convinced the fastest ground is actually on the far rail.

They all seem to be coming stands side so far though, and I agree Billy, If I was drawn right out of it I would favour the far side rather than the centre of the course where there definetly seems to be a disadvantage this week.