Royal Ascot - 18/06/08

[billy the punter]

Wednesday has always been my favourite day of Royal Ascot and this year is no exception.

Jersey Stakes

This is one of the few group races in the season that I look forward to. I've backed many winners in this event and I think it's a great race for punters. There have been some stand out bets in recent years with horses dropping down in class and trip.

Generous Thought is a horse I rate and have backed each time this season, he has been clobbered by the handicapper without winning so connections probably thought that have no choice but to up him in class. This could be a strep too far but he is sure to give a good account of himself.

Aqlaam has had this as his target before he won his maiden. He looked classy when he did and the race worked out well. Think he'll win a Listed+ race but this may've come too soon.

Jupiter Pluvius has been forgotten a little by punters after missing the Guineas due to problems. He come a long way very quickly at two and his form last season is rock solid. He beat the very useful Famous Name in a Group 3 just 8 days after his racecourse debut. He looked below par on his comeback in the Irish 1000 but if he is right would take all the beating here.

Calming Influence has impressed me each time he ran. He bolted up against some useful types on his 2yo debut and travelled like a top horse to maintain his unbeated record in the King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket.

Stimulation was a head behind him then and his 4lb better off. He also looks like a genuine 7f horse - however the way Calming Influence travelled I'm expecting him to improve again and confirm placings with Stimulation.

Calming Infuence 50% of stake 5.5 betfair
Jupiter Pluvius 30% of stake 7 betfair
Aqaalm 15% of stake 11.5 betfair
Generous Thought 5% of stake 21 betfair

Will play about with combos including Stimulation.


Prince Of Wales Stakes

After the Juddmonte I predicted that I'd probably have my biggest Group race bet of the year next time Phoenix Tower runs.

Well I think that is going to be the case.

He has gone from strength to strength so far in his short career and ran a cracker LTO in that Juddmonte desptie be hindered by the slow pace. Henry Cecil was gutted after the race, also blaming the the muddling gallop, he obviously fancied him to win that G1.

He is definitely worth a try at the trip and he looks a cast iron E/W bet.

Duke Of Marmalade is entitled to be fav and will be hard to beat, he is a genuine G1 performer. I do think however that the too are price too far apart.

Bar the front two I think the race lacks depth, Ask and Sixties Icon would need further to win at this level and Literato looks out of sorts.

Pipedreamer could run well at a price, I'm certain there are group races in him, perhaps not one of this class though.

Pressing runs for Michael Jarvis here, fresh from Italy. I backed Rakti on his first UK start in this when he was 2nd at 50/1. The days of getting that sort of price on decent Italian form are gone. Interesting but not big enough in the betting for me.

Toyed with win each Duke Of Marmalde/Phoenix Tower but with the lack of depth I've gone for the E/W bet thinking that Phoenix is unlikely to be beaten by three of the field.

Phoenix Tower 50% of stake E/W 6.4 and 2.14 betfair


Royal Hunt Cup

See my thread


Sandringham Handicap (Listed)

Half of John Gosden's last ten runners have made the frame in this and I was very sweet on his Illusion LTO. Her maiden form had worked out well and I expected her to go close in the tough handicap won by Redford at Doncaster.

She travelled like the winner for a long way but wasn't suited by the dawdling pace and perhaps the G/S ground.

She will definitely win more races and I expect a big run here against some uninspiring fillies at the head of the weights.

Illusion 50% of stake E/W 10/1 Hills

[tedthewolf]

In the 4.20 agree Bankable is far too short wouldn't surprise me if it fails to run a place.
FLIPANDO and MR AVAITOR for me.

[AK1979]

Been on Royal Power for some time but didn't wanna post till I had all my bets sorted.

Backed him at 33/1 E/W a week ago and got the 25/1 W/O Bankable today with Hills - they shortened him soon after.

I tipped him LTO, I know quite a bit about him shall we say.

Thats encouraging Billy - thanks

[AK1979]

For the purposes of Sports Punter prices taken are:

Royal Power @ 33/1 betfred
Excellent Show @ 20/1 paddypower

[Rainbow]

my best bet of the day would be majestic roi 305 ascot. 0.5 pts ew. has the ability to go close and latest run was better. can get the race run to suit and then show strength to fight out the finish. nice odds.

[jcosgrove]

I have been trialling a new rating system for 2yo races this season in hope of being aided at meetings like this one.

I am actually rating the races rather than the horses.

I have the following horses come out well in the one 2yo race on day 2.

Here they are :-

1.Danehill Destiny
2.Lucky Leigh
3.Rebecca De Winter
4.White Shift
5.Beat Seven

I have had a look through the irish races also and Light Hearted clocked a nice time but form not really working out, Connie Mac I thought was interesting via jockey booking/step back in trip. Nubar Lady needs softer ground and Sugar Free I thought could need further.

I have done a combination tricast on my selections 60 bets @ 50p.

[Verisimilitude]

DUKE OF MARMALADE 3.45 Ascot. 1 point win. Has the form to win and in good form coming into the race. Should be able to just stalk the pace and then kick and go when asked. Sounds simply and it should be to be fair.

[Falbrav]

4.20 Ascot. Orchard Supreme.

Big odds for this one and should be shorter in the market irrespective of where he finishes. Better on the aw and that's fair, but not that much better and with conditions to suit this afternoon and with running of a mark of 88, it all suggests he can go close if running to best.

[WoodyTHFC]

Asc
2.30 Calming Influence 9/2 var bog 12.5 pts e.w Jupiter Pluvius 6/1 var 12.5 pts e.w Not quite sure why Frankie isnt on board Calming influence but either way I still like the horse, it looked a potentially smart prospect when winning well last season on its only start and then lto on its first run of the season it put up a classy performance. i was on Stimulation then but Calimng influence picked him up with ease and considering it was just his second ever start there is every reason to think he will come on for that even more. Arguably one of goldophins best chances this week. jupiter Pluvius was poor on re appearnce in 2000 Guineas Ire. but Im tempted to forgive that given how much O'Brien's always seem to need their first run. Of far more interest is that this one beat Famous Name right at the end of last season and did it well and relatively cosily, how it was reportedly the ballydole no.1 for the guineas ahead of HTN for all of the winter and how on certain breeding lines it may find 7f more suitable than a mile and even in time a sprinting trip.

3.05 Sabana Perdida 18/5 spo 25 pts Third in this last year behind nannina and satwa queen showing that she likes the ground and the place. that was a top run at 50/1 that day and for a start I dont think there is anything of that quality in the field today and also since then she has improved according to her trainer, that is seen by two nice wins since then including a win at ling. on her reappearance on quick ground which clearly is no problem at all. Looks to a have good chance.

3.45 Duke of Marmalade 8/5 spo 25 pts I liked this horse last year when O'brien placed it poorly at times imo and often used it as effectively as pace maker over an inadequte mile, it still ran well but it looked to me as if it needed further, when it got it, it was behind dylan thomas/authorized which is no shame at all and indeed at york it pushed a class act like notnowcato all the way to the line. this season it has been running over further and the result has been two group 1 wins and decent ones at that, it seems to have improved at 4 and noticeably it is one of the few o'brien horses who have won fto this season like HTN,Yeats (the top ones), that suggets soem class to me and he looks a class act in general at this trip, indeed I wouldnt rule out the Arc by the end of the season. There are some big dangers, pheonix tower noticeably and even pipedreamer if he can reverse earlier hq form with that one (i dont see ask or sixties icon running at their totally ideal trip despite their wins lto) but Duke Of marmalade looks the stand out for me.

4.20 Bankable 11/5 spo 25 pts Decision of the week, are you with the short priced bankable or not? I am with him. yes there has to be question marks in a field of this size, does anyone know how the draw will pan out. However Bankable has left a really striking impression this season and last, I saw it in its maiden at hq and since then it has kept on winning. He likes ascot and is proven in a variety of conditions here and his wins have all been fairly cosy this season and towards the end of last. whatever the handicapper tried has to do so far has proved in vain and lto when he hacked up in a listed event beating a subsequent group win proved his undoubted class and ability to step up into a group performer of some kind in the future. He is at least 14 pounds well in and whatever way I look around it, I cant get away from that fact, this undoubtedly has been a plan and dettori is generally a good man for this situation. if I had to go for a couple e.w then I would go for Docofthebay, enigmatic but loves this big fields and first time blinkers are very interestinag and Oceana Gold, who chased home Bankable last season once and if you can ignore his last run he is respected however i am with bankable.

4.55 Danehill Destiny 15/4 spo 25 pts Nice type this. Only two wins but won well both times and clearly thought of well by connections, win at hq was pretty impressive and that was also at a time when the trainer wasnt going so well, then stepped up to face prolific who was much touted and didnt get the allowances a filly normally would get when facing the colts yet she still won very well and was always holding the much touted rival, clearly she has a lot of talent and speed for this contest. One of my stronger 2 year old fancies this week.

5.30 Makaaseb 9/2 var 12.5 pts e.w Left a really good impression on debut on quickish ground when winning and was so impressive that she was a really short price for the subsequent rockfell which in 2005 and 2006 was the key trial for the 1000 Guineas. She disappointed a bit for me in that hq race but fto this season she showed that she still has some promise and was arguably a bit unlucky in a listed contest, she should come on for that and given this is just her fourth ever start, improvement very much on and hills has chosen this although I would prefer it if he wasnt on tbh.

[stewartd14]

Today, I like the look of Aiden O Briens runners and it wouldnt surprise me if he came away with a few winners.

2.30

JUPITER PLUVIUS 11/2
Looked a very decent sort as a 2 year old and was considered as a decent Guineas hope for O Brien at the start of the season. However, things didnt quite work out and he made his seasonal bow in the Irish version, where he finished 4th. Admittedly, this wasnt the best of runs but he was beaten by New Approach and HenrytheNavigator.

He should come on a lot for that run, and faces nothing like those 2 rivals today. The drop down in trip may also be beneficial and I think he looks a good bet to start off Day 2.

3.45

DUKE OF MARMALADE 11/8

Another of O Briens and he has already won 2 Group 1's this season with the minimum of fuss. He beat some decent sorts at Longchamp in the Prix Ganay, when Sageburg, Zambezi Sun and Saddex were all behind. Sageburg has come out to win again, beating a good field. His 2nd run came on similar ground to what he will encounter today, and he easily disposed of Finsceal Beo. Although it probably wasnt Finsceals best trip, it looks better than what any of the others have done in the field today.

Looking elsewhere in the race, likely pacemakes Red Rock Canyon looks too big at 100/1.

4.20

ROYAL POWER 25/1 EW

The Hunt Cup surrounds Bankable and this horse has been all the rage in the build up to the race. Trained by Luca Cumani, potentially he could have at least a stone in hand, and looks a handicap "good thing". However, at 2/1 in a field of 30 runners - No thanks.

Instead I am going to side with Dandy Nicholls Royal Power, who was very unlucky last time at Epsom. Going for a daring run up the rails, he was repeatedly hampered and finished 5 lengths behind Little White Lie. He is clearly better than that, and I think he is worth another chance today now he is returning to form.

4.55

HEART SHAPED 5/1

Another of Aiden O Briens, and this one looks to be the least likely of his trio of fancied runners to win. This looks a very open race with numerous horses capable of finding improvement. However, at 5/1, he looks worth a nibble.

In his 1st run in what looked a poor Naas maiden, he was beaten by Jim Bloger's Cuis Ghare and also finished just 1/4 length behind Silver Shoon. The form of that race makes it look like a very good maiden. Cuis Ghare has gone on to win a Group 3 in fine style and Silver Shoon was well fancied for a Group 2 at Ascot yesterday. He got no luck in running though, and would have finished a lot closer.

This race loosk on a similar level to the one yesterday, so you would have to say Heart Shaped should probably be longer than 5/1. However, Aiden O Briens horses always come on leaps and bounds throughout their 2 year old careers, and Heart Shaped improved on his 1st run to defeat Silver Shoon in a listed race next time out. I expect Heart Shaped to continue to improve, and that would make him a good few lengths better than Silver Shoon, which makes the 5/1 look a very decent price.

I cant have the favourite Bahamian Babe, as I think this is a big step up on anything he has done before.

5.30

MAKAASEB 5/1

A tough little handicap to end the card, but I have to side with Michael Jarvis' runner. Makaaseb looked a decent horse in her 2 year old days when winning an average Newmarket Maiden. He was then stepped up to Group 2 level in the Rockfel, and was outclassed. As a 3 year old, his only run was a very unlucky 4th in a similar race to todays. He had no room at a vital point that day and flew home once he was pulled out wide. I feel he may well have won that day, and I expect him to make amends here.

[TheRat]

Literato is a non runner......

[bowles10]

2.30

Taking a chance in this race with French trained War officer (12/1 Tote) who has now won 4 from last 5 starts. The last 2 wins have been listed class & previous to that was 3rd in a group 3 at Chantilly. I just think the race may throw up a surprise today. My main fancy in the race is Andrew balding' s Dream Eater (15/2 Sporting bet) who ran a very creditable race in the 2000 Guineas to finish 5th behind Henrythenavigator. The vibes from the stable are very good with this horse tipped up last week by a few people. I followed it from last year where i felt it didnt really run true races in defeat & was capable of better. This track will suit & it needs fast ground.

3.05 Sabana Perdida (7/2 tote) is the only horse i like in the race. Trained in france & was 3rd in this race last year. The 4 years of trends show horses have only had 0-2 runs that season & 5yo's have a record of 0-3-8 in terms of wins-places-runs.

3.45 Group 1 winners must be considered here & this leaves 3 Sixties Icon, Duke of Marmalade & Pressing. I expect all 3 to be in the shake up today they price up as follows
Duke 11/8
Sixties 10/1
Pressing 10/1
At those odds, i will have a dabble in the PaddyPower market w/o the fav. They go Pressing 5/1 & Sixties Icon 6/1.

4.20 I put up We'll Come at 14's 2 weeks ago as an ante post bet. Thats half that price now yet I am not convinced by the high draw & also the trends that i have put up which favours horses weighing less than 9st. Oceana Gold could go well & also Kavachi both at big prices. I also like Lang Shining & Docofthebay yet they all have thier negatives & if i was pushed Docofthebay albeit drawn 1 has firstimeblinkers on & I just feel its worth a place at least. Its 8/1 w/o Bankable with Tote, that looks too big.

[fintron]

Cheers to Welshman for posting up the trends in the other thread. Used those to make my selections..........

2.30
Favourites appear to have a good record in this race and Calming Influence looks to have decent claims here for Godolphin after winning a listed race at Newmarket (Stimulation back in second) recently. Showed that day that he will act on the current ground. 5/1 Sport Bet
3.05
Stoute has had a few winners of this and Heaven Sent has been in decent form this year, winning her first group race at Newmarket latest. Ryan Moore in the saddle so should be given a good race. 11/4 Coral
3.45
Duke of Marmalade is a dual group 1 winner so quite happy to back it on the basis of its form this season at the Curragh and Longchamp and it fits the trends of past winners – all of the last 8 winners had won a group 1 beforehand and the top four in the betting are the ones to concentrate on. 6/4 Betfred
4.20
I’ll be on Bankable here given its liking for Ascot (two from two here). Was a comfortable winner of a listed race last time out and goes well for Dettori. Also has a good draw in stall 25. 11/5 Ppower
4.55
Apparently breeding is important here and looking for sires with speed is a good indicator of a winner. Rebecca de Winter is by Group 1 winner Kyllachy so is well bred and the jockey booking of Ryan Moore, as well as a high draw, are other positives. 20/1 Hills
5.30
Maybe Jazz Jam for this one. Unlike many of these she has winning form over a mile and hopefully her last run, over what may have been an unsuitable trip, can be ignored. She goes on the ground and fits the trend on ratings (OR 90+). 16/1 Coral.

[JackJarvis]

3.45 Ascot - DUKE OF MARMALADE (1pt Win)
By far the best form in the race and has the credentials to go to the very top of the middle distance sphere this season. Solid win over Sapphex last time and has the beating of Pressing on a formline through that horse. His win over Finsceal Beo was well advertised when that horse ran a gallant 3rd in a hot Queen Anne yesterday and its hard to see why he won't continue Ballydoyles great start to the meeting.

Also backing DREAM EATER in the opening contest.

[Gingertipster]

3:45
Duke Of Marmalade is a worthy favourite, but the form of his two group 1's is nothing really special. He is though a big type, the sought to improve as a four year old, proven on the going and the only one of the top three certain to be suited by the trip. Just too short in the market.
Phoenix Tower ran second in what looked a good Lockinge, his first defeat. Has speed for a mile yet bred to do better at 1m2f, by Chester House.
Ask seemed to struggle at the trip at Sandown, but that was a particularly slow pace. More like a mile race than 1m2f. If this is strongly run (Red Rock Canyon is pacemaker and Pressing likes to front run too) contest he may have enough toe. Has not had much racing and will improve this year. Whatever he does here will be a KGVIQEII stakes contender. Even though he has a very rounded action, acts well on firm ground.
Unless Pressing is the only one to press the pacemaker, getting a lead on the others, can not see him being good enough.
Pipedreamer could improve dramatically and have taken 15/1 (was not available when giving the tips). Floundered in the soft ground last time and unsuited by a slowly run race against Phoenix Tower on reappearance. Is a group winner in the making, may be not group 1 but at bigger than 10/1 possibly worth finding out.
Sixties Icon won at 1m2f at Goodwood last time but was up against vastly inferior horses and did not have to be anywhere near his best.
Loup Breton is interesting but seems to have improved on a soft surface this term. The trainers form though in the last couple of weeks is unbelievable. Worth keeping an eye on the Tote price for this French outsider.


Duke Of Marmalade 13/8 (6/4) Phoenix Tower 9/2 (4/1), Ask 6/1 (5/1), Pipedreamer 9/1 (15/2), Sixties Icon 12/1 (10/1), Loup Breton 25/1 (18/1), Pressing 28/1 (22/1), Regime 100/1(50/1), Red Rock Canyon 125/1 (50/1), Stotsfold 500/1 (150/1), Hattan 1000/1 (400/1).


2:30
Layers are scared of O'Brien, Jupiter Pluvius is short, though obviously has undoubted potential. A drop back in trip should suit.
Calming Influence, Stimulation and Red Alert Day met at Newmarket last time. On that running it is the latter who is value, but he was suited by the run of the race (coming from the back in a strongly run race). Probably more exposed than the other two as well. Calming Influence was having his first run and should come on for the run. Could be anything as they say. Stimulation was sent on plenty soon enough considering the early pace and may be better than that run suggests. Both are improving. But with Stimulation over twice the odds of his rival, must be the main bet.
War Officer has improved this season on a soft surface, should stay the trip and is worth taking a chance on the ground, at the price.
Backed Aqlaam in his maiden and could be a big improver for his in form trainer. But it is asking a lot of him at this stage.
Tawaash made all last time and everything that is said about Aqlaam can be said about him. But at the price is worth backing.
Shallal was disappointing in the Greenham but PCH was in poor form then, much better now. Showed potential as a two year old. Should stay this trip and at 79/1 worth taking.
Il Warrd has always been a bit temperamentally frail. This place may not suit. However dropping back in trip may be the making of him. Runs his best races up with the pace.
Generous Thought is another who might not be suited by the occasion.
Dream Eater is from an in form yard and run really well in the 2000. This trip should not be any problem. Just feel others will improve past him.
Paco Boy won a poor Greenham in a slowly run race over seven before running poorly at a mile in France. This trip should be ideal but this is a better race.


Calming Influence 4/1 (7/2), Stimulation 11/2 (9/2), Jupiter Pluvius 7/1 (11/2), War Officer 9/1 (7/1), Dream Eater 14/1 (10/1), Il Warrd 12/1 (9/1), Aqlaam 14/1 (10/1), Tawaash 25/1 (16/1), Generous Thought 25/1 (18/1), Red Alert Day 33/1 (22/1), Royal Confidence 40/1 (25/1), Shallal 33/1 (22/1), Paco Boy 33/1 (22/1) Georgebernardshaw 50/1 (28/1), Bobs Surprise 400/1 (100/1), Strike The Deal 400/1 (100/1), Beacon Lodge 800/1 (200/1), Billyford 1000/1 (500/1)


3:05
Heaven Sent is a worthy favourite but I would want better than 100/30. Did not beat Harvest Queen that far, getting the run of the race from the front in a slowly run race. Stoutey is great at improving these older horses.
Harvest Queen was held up at Newmarket, travelled well as always but did not get home. Comes back in trip slightly today. At 18/1, or 16/1 each way that looks an unbelievable price.
Sabina Perdida was placed here last term and seems to have improved judging by her Lingfield run. Consistant and from an in form yard, at 4/1 may be worth a saver.
Baharah was below form at Epsom last time, but the trainer is in better form now and was held up too far out of her ground. Before that looked potentially up to this class when winning here.
Majestic Roi is another that got behind at Epsom but is not consistent and a group 1 penalty will make it difficult.
Grecian Dancer is the other one with a chance but may not quite be difficult.


Heaven Sent 100/30 (11/4), Sabina Perdida 100/30 (3/1), Harvest Queen 13/2 (11/2), Baharah 13/2 (11/2), Grecian Dancer 9/1 (15/2), Majestic Roi 13/1 (10/1), Many Colours 22/1 (16/1), Fragrancy 40/1 (25/1), Barshiba 100/1 (50/1), Enforce 125/1 (50/1), Selinka 150/1 (66/1), Nan's Joy 400/1 (100/1), Silca Chiave 2000/1 (500/1).




P.S. Anyone hear Matt Chapman have a go at me when I tried to take him to task about his Market Movers in Get On?

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by Gingertipster

P.S. Anyone hear Matt Chapman have a go at me when I tried to take him to task about his Market Movers in Get On?

heard the comment but didnt hear who it was from. You're a naughty boy ginge!

[fintron]

Well done Woody and Bowles on picking Sabana Perdida.

[TheRat]

Well done guys!

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by fintron

Well done Woody and Bowles on picking Sabana Perdida.

A very classy filly
Poor Ryan Moore .. will he get a royal win?