Royal Ascot - 18/06/08

[alexmac]

[alexmac]

3.05 - BAHARAH

Course and distance winner back in May, winning a decent looking heat. Unlucky at Epsom last time out, was left with far too much to do after being dropped in the rear. Was staying on nicely that time, and hopefully a return to familiar territory will see her get up infront again. Should be fine with the ground, and will be in good shape for this after having a (relatively) easy run at Epsom last time. The obvious danger is Heaven Sent, who won easily at Newmarket last time out. A nice looking race this, fairly competitive, but BAHARAH is my E/W selection.

[alexmac]

3.45 - DUKE OF MARMALADE

I am not a fan of backing horses at such skinny odds, but even at 13/8 I reckon this is good value for a very decent horse indeed. Coolmore have never won this, so the stats go against him there - however, with their string bang in form surely they will not have a better chance of breaking their duck for a good few years? On the hunt for a hat-trick after convincing wins over Saddex and Finscal Beo last two runs. Finscal Beo ran well today to boost the form of the last run somewhat. At a price, Pipedreamer looks like he could be a progressive type, but he would have to markedly improve if he is to win this one. Duke of Marmalade to be chased home by Pipedreamer...

[alexmac]

4.55 - DANEHILL DESTINY

There is alot to like about the way this filly has won her last two appearances. Last time out, at Windsor, she turned over the odds on favourite Prolific. That was her warm up for this race, and her trainer was very pleased with the way she ran that time. On her debut she showed a devastating turn of foot at Newmarket, and won easily. Looking at the race tomorrow, she will need to be at the top of her game, but she seems to have the right credentials to win this. The Coolmore runner, Heart Shaped, will have plenty of support, but DANEHILL DESTINY looks like the one they all have to beat in my opinion.

[welshman443]

Stats Guide



14:30 Ascot, 18 Jun 2008

7f

Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £39,739




2007 Winner: Tariq
Trainer: Peter Chapple-Hyam
Jockey: Jimmy Fortune
Age: 3; Weight: 9st 1lb
Starting Price: 15/2
Season Form Figures: -501
Best Previous Run: Won - King Charles II Stakes (Listed) (7f), Newmarket


Few Group-race winners take the plunge as this has proven to be a race for up-and-coming three-year-olds but all Group-race winners in the last 21 years running under their penalty have been beaten by faster-improving rivals receiving weight. A couple of Listed race winners have won recently so don’t be put off by those.
Being on an in-form horse has also been key as 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the first four last time out. The only exception was Kheleyf who won on his seasonal debut so can not be accused of being out of form as such. Of those 11 winners, six won on their most recent outing.
The best recent guide by a mile has been the King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket with Jeremy and Tariq following up their successes in that Listed race here in the last two years. In fact, during the last eight seasons both Membership and Observatory also finished second in that Listed race immediately prior to winning here. This season's King Charles II 1-2-3 were Calming Influence, Stimulation and Red Alert Day.
Sir Michael Stoute has the best record with Jersey Stakes victories but respect Jeremy Noseda whose Proclamation won in 2005 following on from Just James in 2002 and he has two others placed at big prices since the first of those victories.
It has been tough going for fillies with John Gosden's Satin Flower in 1991 the last to come out on top but it has been a decent race for favourite-backers with five market leaders winning going back to the brilliant Zilzal and 12 of the last 15 favourites have hit the frame at worst.

Trends summary:

• No Group race winner has defied a penalty for over 20 years
• 6 of the last 12 winners won last time out (11 of the last 12 were placed at worst)
• 4 of the last 8 winners won or finished second in the King Charles II Stakes
• No winning filly since 1991
• Respect Sir Michael Stoute and Jeremy Noseda
• 12 of the last 15 favourites have been placed at worst

JERSEY STAKESYearWinnerTrainerJockeyAge/WtSPRnrsVIDEO2007TariqPeter Chapple-Hyam Jimmy Fortune 3 9-1 15/2152006JeremySir M StouteM J Kinane 3 9-1 9/1142005ProclamationJ NosedaJ Murtagh3 8-137/1212004KheleyfS Bin SuroorL Dettori3 8-106/1152003MembershipC BrittainG Stevens3 8-1020/1142002Just JamesJ NosedaO Peslier3 8-1120/1152001MozartA P O'BrienM Kinane3 8-117/4f182000ObservatoryJ GosdenK Darley3 8-1111/2191999Lots Of MagicR HannonD O'Neill3 8-1133/112 1998DiktatD LoderD Holland3 8-103/1f16 1997Among MenSir M StouteM Kinane3 8-134/1f20 1996Lucayan PrinceD LoderR Hughes3 8-1050/116 1995SergeyevR HannonR Hughes3 8-105/1f16 1994River DeepP ColeT Quinn3 8-1020/121 1993ArdkinglassH CecilW Ryan3 9-110/115 1992Prince FerdinandM McCormackJ Reid3 9-16/112 1991Satin FlowerJ GosdenS Cauthen3 8-712/114

[welshman443]

Stats Guide



15:05 Ascot, 18 Jun 2008

1m

Windsor Forest Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) (Str) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £79,478






2007 Winner: Nannina
Trainer: John Gosden
Jockey: Jimmy Fortune
Age: 4; Weight: 8st 12lb
Starting Price: 3/1CF
Season Form Figures: -3
Best Previous Run: 3rd - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (G3) (1m 1f), Epsom


This Group 2 affair for older fillies and mares over the straight mile was only introduced into the Royal Meeting four years ago having previously been a Listed race at the September Meeting so is still finding its feet as far as discernible patterns are concerned.
The inaugural renewal in 2004 went the way of the Sir Michael Stoute-trained second-favourite Favourable Terms and he also took the honours at York in 2005 with Peeress and supplied the following season's runner-up, Echelon, so we must seriously look at anything he sends to this contest. Godolphin, on the other hand, have fared poorly so far being responsible for two well-backed but beaten favourites in Crimson Palace and Sundrop.
Four-year-olds have made up over three-quarters of the total runners so far so don't read anything into the fact they won three of the four renewals so far. The six-year-old Soviet Song proved that class can overcome relative youth when successful two years ago so I wouldn’t let age sway you one way or another.
Peeress was a surprise 14/1 winner three years ago but the other three renewals went the way of the favourite or second-favourite with Nannina hacking up as the co-favourite of three last season. Two French fillies followed her home on that occasion including Alain De Royer-Dupre’s impressive recent Lingfield winner Sabana Perdida who was third at 50/1 but will doubtless be a market leader this time around. The French also supplied the fourth at a big price in the inaugural running so all three of their raiders have run highly creditably.

Trends summary:

• In four runnings Sir Michael Stoute has supplied two winners and a second
• Godolphin have supplied two losing favourites
• The favourite or second-favourite has won 3 of the 4 runnings
• All 3 French-trained runners have finished in the first four

[welshman443]

Stats Guide



15:45 Ascot, 18 Jun 2008

1m 2f

Prince Of Wales's Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £212,888






2007 Winner: Manduro
Trainer: Andre Fabre
Jockey: Stephan Pasquier
Age: 5; Weight: 9st 0lb
Starting Price: 15/8F
Season Form Figures: -11
Best Previous Run: Won, Prix D'Ispahan (G1) (1m 1f), Longchamp


Since the Prince Of Wales's Stakes was upgraded to Group 1 status in 2000, it has become the highlight of the five days to many offering up a Roll of Honour reading like a who's who of European races with Dubai Millennium, Fantastic Light, Grandera, Nayef, Rakti, Azamour, Ouija Board and the brilliant Manduro 12 months ago landing the spoils. All eight winners since the upgrade had won a Group 1 beforehand so purely concentrate on such runners.
As befitting a race of this quality, the first four in the betting have scored on 18 occasions in the last 21 years (the first two in the betting have won six of the last eight runnings) so we don’t want to be looking too far down the betting. Even before this race was upgraded, the Prince Of Wales's Stakes was very much a punters' race but this has been underlined since its promotion as all seven winners since its elevation started at no bigger than 8/1.
Godolphin traditionally run their best 1m 2f horse in this race and are the team to concentrate on winning four runnings in the last decade. True, their dominance has been halted in the last five years despite sending the likes Electrocutionionst, Moon Ballad and Sulamani to battle (they couldn’t muster a runner last season). Sir Michael Stoute, on the other hand, has struggled down the years with only Stagecraft in 1991 giving him a victory despite over 25 years at the top of his profession whilst Aidan O'Brien can't nail this race either though his record is not as poor as first suggests and has posted second-place positions with Dylan Thomas, Ace and Powerscourt in the last four years and he supplies the probable favourite in the dual Group 1 winner already this season, Duke Of Marmalade.
As for the best guide, it is interesting to note that four of the last five winners were beaten in this race 12 months ago which brings in last season’s fourth, Red Rocks (the only runner last season with an entry), so maybe he could provide some each-way if heading down this route.
Stamina is an important issue as Ascot's ten furlongs is stiff and non-stayers will be found out racing at the top level backed up by the fact that the only winner yet to have struck over a minimum of nine furlongs in the last 23 years was First Island when the race was a Group 2 affair which would be against Phoenix Tower if they prefer this contest to the Queen Anne.
With regards to recent form, just one of the last ten winners failed to make the first three last time out with seven of the last 11 winning so don’t go supporting a horse with something to prove regarding current wellbeing.

Trends summary:

• All 8 winners since the race was elevated to Group 1 status had won at Group 1 level previously
• 18 of the last 21 winners started in the first four in the betting (6 of last 8 started favourite or second-favourite)
• All 8 winners started at no bigger than 8/1 since the race was elevated to Group 1 status
• Godolphin have won 4 of the last 10 renewals
• Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O'Brien have managed just one victory between them
• 22 of the last 23 winners had won at a minimum of nine furlongs
• 7 of the last 11 winners won last time out

[welshman443]

Stats Guide



16:20 Ascot, 18 Jun 2008

1m

Royal Hunt Cup Handicap (Str) (Class 2) (3YO plus)
Winner £62,310






2007 Winner: Royal Oath
Trainer: John Gosden
Jockey: Jimmy Fortune
Age: 4; Weight: 9st 0lb
Starting Price: 9/1
Season Form Figures: -20
Best Previous Run: 2nd - Spring Cup (Heritage Handicap) (1m), Newbury


Four and five-year-olds make up the lion's share of runners (about 75%) but given they have won 20 of the last 22 runnings, they are still overperforming as whole so I can’t look beyond them and happy to cross off any horse aged six and upwards.
The second-most critical statistic to take on board is that just winner since 1989 has carried more than 9st to victory. Royal Oath romped home bang on 9st last season so trends followers got lucky there but the fact remains that since a total of 69 horses have attempted to carry more than 9st to victory in the last ten years with only Mine has been successful.
Previous straight-track form at Ascot has proved to be an important factor in recent times and no race more so than the Victoria Cup. This valuable seven-furlongs handicap in its own right has provided an ideal springboard for seven of the last 14 Royal Hunt Cup winners so have a good look at this season’s running won by Zaahid. It looked a strong renewal this season to boot with the first four in the betting filling the first four places. The Britannia Handicap at the previous season’s Royal Ascot also used to be a significant but not so much of late. The Lincoln has also been a very decent guide of late as three of the last six winners contested the season's traditional first big betting race though only one of that successful triumvirate ran into a place.
As for the draw, that's a tricky one as the new Ascot still needs to settle down but low numbers had a wretched time at last season’s meeting and it was those drawn middle-high that dominated the Victoria Cup in May. That said, it is noticeable that seven of the last 11 winners were drawn no more than six places away from either rail.
James Fanshawe is unquestionably a man to keep on your side for the Royal Hunt Cup so I have plenty of time for last season’s Britannia Handicap fourth, Artimino. Successful two seasons ago with Cesare, Fanshawe also lifted the prize with Macadamia three years earlier and his four other runners since the turn of the millennium also made the frame. That is a tremendous achievement given the hugely competitive nature of this race.
Although there has been no winning favourite since 1996, the Hunt Cup usually goes the way of a fancied horse. Royal Oath started third-favourite last season meaning one of the four most-fancied has won over half the runnings since 1995 (7 from 13).

Trends summary:

• 20 of the last 22 winners were four or five-year-olds
• 16 of the last 17winners carried no more than 9st
• James Fanshawe's last six runners have all been placed including two victories
• 7 of the last 13 winners started in the first four in the betting
• 3 of the last 6 winners ran in the Lincoln Handicap
• 7 of the last 14 winners ran in the Victoria Cup
• 7 of the last 11 were drawn no more than six places away from either rail

[welshman443]

Stats Guide



16:55 Ascot, 18 Jun 2008

5f

Queen Mary Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £45,416






2007 Winner: Elletelle
Trainer: Ger Lyons
Jockey: Johnny Murtagh
Age: 2; Weight: 8st 12lb
Starting Price: 20/1
Season Form Figures: -31
Best Previous Run: Won, Maiden (6f), Leopardstown


Up until 2007 it was a case of follow the unbeaten fillies as six on the spin had proven successful but, successes for Gilded and Elletelle, who were both beaten on their debut has changed that in the last two years but at least they still won last time out which is imperative with 12 of the last 13 winners also scoring on their most recent outing.
This five-furlongs sprint is a test for real speedsters so it is with little surprise that sires known for passing on their sprinting genes that have fared much the best. Eleven of the last 13 winners were sired by stallions with a Sire Index of between 6f and 9f including Elletelle last season by Elnadim so look for sires with a reputation of passing on pure speed.
Richard Hannon landed his third Queen Mary Stakes when Gilded two seasons ago so his number-one hope has to be respected but he has run an awful lot of fillies in this Group 3 race down the years. Therefore, I would argue Mick Channon has the better record having won with Bint Allayl (1998), Queen's Logic (2001) and Flashy Wings (2005) and all three went on to win the Lowther Stakes and end up the season's champion two-year-old filly. Surprisingly without a runner last season, Rowaasi was only half a length away from making it four Channon-trained winners finding just one too good in 1999 and Majestic Desert's third placing two years ago means five of his last eight runners have filled the frame at the very least.
The National Stakes at Sandown was a terrific guide in the 1990s with five Queen Mary Stakes winners contesting that event but it’s gone very quiet since and the fillies that ran in this season’s renewal did not shine so it looks unlikely that Listed affair will have an impact this season. As a fillies' only Listed race, the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley is also considered a Queen Mary trial and Attraction completed the double four years ago. This season’s renewal was fought out by two Mel Brittain-trained runners in Knavesmire and Caranbola, neither of which are certain to run at Royal Ascot which suggested it was a below-par running.

Trends summary:

• 12 of the last 13 winners won last time out
• 6 of the last 8 winners were all unbeaten entering the race
• 11 of the last 13 renewals won by a filly whose stallion had a Sire Index of between 6f-9f
• Mick Channon's last 8 runners have produced three winners a second and a third
• Richard Hannon has won 3 renewals

[welshman443]

Stats Guide



17:30 Ascot, 18 Jun 2008

1m

Sandringham Handicap (Fillies' Listed) (Str) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £34,062






2007 Winner: Barshiba
Trainer: David Elsworth
Jockey: Richard Quinn
Age: 3; Weight: 8st 8lb
Starting Price: 16/1
Season Form Figures: 2-150
Best Previous Run: 5th - Nell Gwyn Stakes (G3) (7f), Newmarket


Originally registered as the Fern Hill Stakes, this race was the focal point of the traditional Heath Day card on the Saturday but was introduced into the Royal Meeting when the fixture was extended to five days in 2002. Not a strong trends race for three-year-old fillies but it is a good idea to look later developers as eight six winners since 1995 started the season as a maiden. More predictably for a race of this nature, ten of the last 12 winners were rated 90+ before heading to post (no winner rated lower than 84) so last-time-out maiden winners can be taken on as it is nigh on impossible to post a figure in excess of 90 winning a maiden (although they may have done in pattern races in defeat beforehand).
Only one of the last 13 winners could not be found in the front half-dozen in the market which is promising but the gloss is taken of that statistic somewhat when we consider that surprise winner was Barsbiba last year who, at 16/1, got home from a 33/1 outsider.
Winning form earlier in the season has been important with ten of the last 12 winners visiting the Winner's Enclosure at some point and, one of those not to score earlier in the campaign was having her seasonal debut. However, even more significantly, eight of the last 12 winners struck last time out which did not include last season’s winner who was out of her depth in the 1000 Guineas.
Like so many handicaps at the Royal Meeting, John Gosden and Mark Johnston figure prominently though, surprisingly, the latter has not been able to muster a runner in the last three runnings considering four of his previous five runners made the frame inclusing the winner in 1998. With five of Gosden's last ten runners making the frame (Cask justified co-favouritism for him in 1995), his fillies must be considered likely contenders.

Trends summary:

• 12 of the last 13 winners started in the first six in the betting
• 11 of the last 13 winners were officially rated 90+
• 10 of the last 12 winners had won earlier in the season (8 last time out)
• 5 of John Gosden’s last 10 runners have made the frame including one winner
• 4 of Mark Johnston’s last 5 runners have made the frame including one winner
• 8 of the last 13 winners were maidens at the start of the season

SANDRINGHAM HANDICAPYearWinnerTrainerJockeyAge/WtSPRnrsVIDEO2007Barshiba David Elsworth Richard Quinn 3 8-816/1192006Red Evie M L W Bell J P Spencer 3 8-125/1jf192005BeautyandthebeastJ OxxM Kinane3 8-119/2142004Celtic HeroineM JarvisK Darley3 8-711/1192003Hold To RansomE DunlopL Dettori3 9-711/1112002TashawakJ DunlopR Hills3 9-712/114

[TheRat]

Just thoughts on the first. Really like Calming Influence, class horse and seems to fit most the trends here. But I just can't back him at 9/2. Stimulation could improve here and looks a good EW, getting a bit more from Calming Influence, and maybe not too relivant but Frankie is Il Warrd. Tawaash, if improves, has a slight chance at a big price, Paco Boy can get a good run too here and Dream Eater has a good chance too if turns up

Basically what I'm saying is I'm stumped again in the first race and no bet!!!!!!

[welshman443]

must agree with you there,looks to difficult to solve

[TheRat]

OK, so been looking at the 3.45. And before I go on the favourite has a great chace, as do most of the top in the betting.
However I cannot help but feel Literato EW at 20/1 (Laddies) is good value here. Has class in France, won a group one before. Ground may be a slight concern as usually likes a bit of cut. No doubt the horse has not performed for Godolphin and could be another horse they have managed to ruin! But has been running over 9F this season and back to 10F should be of benefit. Doesn't fit the top betting stats but Godolphin have a decent record in this race and at 20/1 seems to big to pass up on for a horse that has an a very impressive record.

[Cassius Marcellus]

I'm going to lay Bankable, and hopefully he'll get boxed in. I don't care if he's got two stones in hand, with 30 runners, this is Ascot, not a dodgy claimer on a wet Monday at Folkestone. Everybody will be trying, so 13/8 is too short.

[AK1979]

420 - Royal Power
He won the German 2000 Guineas when he was with Mick Channon which didn’t do much for his official rating and its evident he found it tough in competitive company after that. Has dropped to a mark in the early 90’s now which is much more reasonable and will have in some part contributed to the recent improved shows where he has shaped well on his 2 runs for the Nicholl’s stable. To be beaten less than 2 lengths by Charlie Farnsbarns, who boasts some impressive Group Class form is eyecatching and he showed more promise last time out when finishing 6th after having his run blocked in the closing stages. He deserved better than that. This is clearly ultra competitive but he looks to be running into some form and has a decent draw so is entitled to run well.



455 – Excellent Show
The trainer rates this one one of the quickest fillies he’s ever trained. Was beaten by Haigh Hall on debut, with the first 2 pulling clear. The winner is highly regarded and ran a good race in Listed company next time from a wide draw at Beverley. It was reported he had mucus in his lungs after the race so 5th was a good effort. Excellent Show won a modest event as he liked on her 2nd and final start to set her up nicely for this.

[TheRat]

16.55 Rebecca de Winter EW (19.00 WIN and 5.3 PLACE, 3 places)
Tough sprint here, but once again a bit of a value play. High draw here, won LTO with Viva Ronaldo in second who has recently won, although not at this level, but of course we are dealing with 2yr olds here and with Moore on board can improve and get a good run here. In her first run came second to the Channon hose that then went on to run a class 3 and as long as gets a good route can go close

[SteveO]

Duke of Marmalade and Danehill Destiny are both backs for me and I totally agree with Cas that Bankable has to be a lay. If Bankable doesn't race in a prominent position and the gaps don't appear it won't matter how well in he is.

Can't see who's going to trouble the Duke and I think Danehill Destiny could turn out to be a very special filly she has a great burst of speed. Check her maiden win out on youtube.

[TheRat]

With Bankable it has a great chance, but yea, in a race like that, at those odds surely cannot be backed?

[devil tish]

420 royal hunt cup

oceana gold 25/1(totesport/bluesquare)

2/1 fav??????????? blimey. if it wins like a good thing then fair play. i'd prefer to have a go each way on oceana gold, although after todays races not sure if a high draw is where to be. oceana golds 1st run this season over 9f just found him out at newmarket, his last run i am discounting due to the soft ground, which andrew balding said he never acted on. acts at ascot, ground should be ideal. expecting a big run at a price. this will be backed on wednesday.

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by AK1979

420 - Royal Power
He won the German 2000 Guineas when he was with Mick Channon which didn’t do much for his official rating and its evident he found it tough in competitive company after that. Has dropped to a mark in the early 90’s now which is much more reasonable and will have in some part contributed to the recent improved shows where he has shaped well on his 2 runs for the Nicholl’s stable. To be beaten less than 2 lengths by Charlie Farnsbarns, who boasts some impressive Group Class form is eyecatching and he showed more promise last time out when finishing 6th after having his run blocked in the closing stages. He deserved better than that. This is clearly ultra competitive but he looks to be running into some form and has a decent draw so is entitled to run well.



455 – Excellent Show
The trainer rates this one one of the quickest fillies he’s ever trained. Was beaten by Haigh Hall on debut, with the first 2 pulling clear. The winner is highly regarded and ran a good race in Listed company next time from a wide draw at Beverley. It was reported he had mucus in his lungs after the race so 5th was a good effort. Excellent Show won a modest event as he liked on her 2nd and final start to set her up nicely for this.

Been on Royal Power for some time but didn't wanna post till I had all my bets sorted.

Backed him at 33/1 E/W a week ago and got the 25/1 W/O Bankable today with Hills - they shortened him soon after.

I tipped him LTO, I know quite a bit about him shall we say.