Newcastle Sat 27th June

[bowles10]

Selections in here please

[fintron]

Friston Forest looks good in the big one at Newcastle (3.10) today at 16/1. Narrowly touched off by the effervescent Carraciola at York, latest, top rated runner of the field and that was a promising run. Really goes well on soft ground as evidenced by turf form abroad.

[ken678]

Newcastle: 3:10 Tilt Blue Sq 21

Always facinated by price dispariies - I take it to mean someone somewhere has has a decent bet. PPower are as low as 14s. Will follow the smart(?!!) money

[Stevet1859]

3:10 Newcastle: The Betchworth Kid 2pts win 10/1 & Tilt 2pts win 20/1 Both William Hill

The Betchworth Kid has a good draw, goes well on this rain softened ground and Michael Bell won this a couple of years ago. Tilt is on a long losing run but ran well last time out. Trainer Brian Ellison also knows all about this race, and Tilt is another who likes the soft.

[chris34]

Watch the going here guys, the muppet had watered the course yesterday morning rained all day yesterday and overnight and little hope of any sunshine today leaves the ground officially soft, and with reports seem to be filtering through that this could quite easily be changed to heavy in places!

[WoodyTHFC]

2.05 Atlantic Sport 4/1 bet3 bog 10pts Backed this one a few times and pleased to see him finally drop down in trip. I have often thought the way that he travels through his races that a drop back to 6f (a distance where he beat the classy aqlaam in his maiden)could well be the key. He was never really miler and whilst he was fine at 7f and showed that a few times, 6f might just make him. His form is decent enough anyway, even lto in a group 3 he wasn’t far away at all, he has been very good at listed level in the past and he can go close here knowing he has shown he can go on soft in the past.

3.10 Wells Lyrical 9/1 sj bog 7.5pts e.w Tricky race in some ways but I like this ones unexposed nature and seemingly has been prepared for this race after a promising seasonal reappearance over this trip. Last season this nicely bred sort was extremely progressive. He was placed four times before then running up a hat trick where he never won by that much but always did enough and always stayed on strongly to win. A worry with the types who win time and time again is that they don’t always do it again next season but this one showed so much promise on his seasonal return. He came second to a decent sort in downhiller but that was a fine comeback run and this looks a target and one which he can run well in from a low draw to get a good position unlike some of his nearest market rivals.

[south_eastern_ram]

3.10

I'm going with The Betchworth Kid and Hits Only Vic, Betchworth has a good draw, loves the softer ground and has performed in grade 1 races. A slight doubt about the trip but i think he will run well. Hits Only Vic also loves the softer ground and further rain would probably be even more of an advantage. Can definitely stay the trip and is 5lb down from last time out where he won at Haydock.

[chris34]

Originally Posted by south_eastern_ram

3.10

I'm going with The Betchworth Kid and Hits Only Vic, Betchworth has a good draw, loves the softer ground and has performed in grade 1 races. A slight doubt about the trip but i think he will run well. Hits Only Vic also loves the softer ground and further rain would probably be even more of an advantage. Can definitely stay the trip and is 5lb down from last time out where he won at Haydock.

Hi south easter, hope you dont mind me pulling you up on one of your selections as it is a mistake I made until I joined this place and some taught me about handicap.
Hits only vic last ran off a hanidcap mark of 94 carrying a weight of 9-5 today runs off same mark of 94 but only carries 9-0 so yes on paper he looks like he is carrying 5lb less but in practice he isnt he is more likely to be meeting higher rating horses pushing him down the weights, so if he was to meet any of the horses he raced against at Ascot here today and they ran off same mark as they did then they too would carry 5lb less due to the conditions of the race. Hope this is clear but once I learnt this it helped a huge amount with my handicap betting.
Otherwise hits only vic does have a great chance can certainly cope with plenty of different sorts of ground having won on good/firm all the ay through to heavy!!!

[fintron]

3.10 Newcastle - Northumberland Plate

One of the best staying handicaps of the season and I remember backing Macorville in this two years ago when he was pipped by Juniper Girl. There have been some big priced winners of this in the past decade. Last years winner Arc Bleu returned 14/1 and between 2004-6 there were two winners at 33/1 either side of another 14/1 shot. They bet 7/1 the field here, so even if a market leader goes in, the prices could be juicy. The one that comes out best on my figures is Record Breaker. He runs off 93 today, which is 5 lbs higher than when successful at Hamilton two starts ago (in this grade), but since then he has infact placed in second off a 5 lb higher mark when running off 98 at Ascot last week. That suggests he could be considerably ahead of the handicapper here, indeed he is officially well in today but the sticking point for me, quite literally could be the ground. He is yet to prove he acts on soft ground and has flopped whenever tried on it previously. Tilt comes out next best on my figures just ahead of Wells Lyrical and looks sure to stay, but the one that looks worth a punt at a price is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Meethaaq who I have only a pound or so inferior to those rivals. This is a four year old colt that made only a couple of starts at three, showing promise when second in a Newmarket maiden over 1m 2f before winning next time out at Leicester over a mile and a half. He made his handicap debut on his reappearance at York this season and was far from disgraced in a warm looking race when 6th of 12. He shaped as though he wanted further and when stepped back up to a mile and a half at Doncaster he finished only one and a half lengths off Dansili Dancer, again staying on well to hint he wanted a stamina test such as this. Like a few of these, he is not proven on anything this soft, but if inheriting the going prefences of the sire would have a super chance here; Kingmambo loved to get his toe in and was a multiple soft ground winner.

20/1 Paddypower

[fintron]

Originally Posted by chris34

Hi south easter, hope you dont mind me pulling you up on one of your selections as it is a mistake I made until I joined this place and some taught me about handicap.
Hits only vic last ran off a hanidcap mark of 94 carrying a weight of 9-5 today runs off same mark of 94 but only carries 9-0 so yes on paper he looks like he is carrying 5lb less but in practice he isnt he is more likely to be meeting higher rating horses pushing him down the weights, so if he was to meet any of the horses he raced against at Ascot here today and they ran off same mark as they did then they too would carry 5lb less due to the conditions of the race. Hope this is clear but once I learnt this it helped a huge amount with my handicap betting.
Otherwise hits only vic does have a great chance can certainly cope with plenty of different sorts of ground having won on good/firm all the ay through to heavy!!!

Tried to summarise handicapping in this article....

Getting a grip on handicapping..

[Verisimilitude]

SUNRISE SAFARI 2.35 Newcastle. 0.5 points each way.

Not been at his best recently, but there can be excuses made for this runs. Returns to a track which he has proved in the past that he likes, so with racing off an attractive mark of 82 today, it does suggest he has every chance of a win if finding his form again. The trip and ground are not a concern.

[Stevet1859]

2:35 Newcastle: Inter Vision 2pts win 16/1 Paddy Power (Bog) & 3pts win Lucky Leigh 40/1 Stan James (Bog)

Going for a couple of outsiders here who have both shown flashes of form on the soft. Inter Vision is dropping down to a handy mark and has won over course and distance. Lucky Leigh is taking a fair drop in class and Mick Channon does well here.

[chris34]

Originally Posted by fintron

Tried to summarise handicapping in this article....

Getting a grip on handicapping..

That be where i learnt it all cheers for pulling that up fintron knew it was on here somewhere i go my knowledge from lol!

[Falbrav]

DAMIKA 3.45 Newcastle.

0.5 points each way.

Has done well enough this season to suggest he can improve a bit today, and if he does than he can go close off a mark of 97. The trip wouldn't be a concern and the little bit of rain that fell last night and yesterday would be welcomly received. Should be able to run at his own pace within the race, so with already showing a liking for this track and with being around the 11/1 mark, I think he's a value bet, irrespective of the end result.

[bowles10]

Draw stats from yesterday (yesterdays results in Bold)

Since thier April meeting, here are the results on the straight course at Newcastle (1-2-3)

handicaps over 5f
7-5-4 (6 ran) Good
14-13-9 (10 ran) G/F
10-14-9 (16 ran) GS
9-7-8 (8 ran) GS

maidens over 5f
5-1-4 (8 ran) G/soft

handicaps over 6f
6-7-8 (10 ran) G/F
13-8-12 (14 ran) G/F
16-4-3 (16 ran) G/F
9-10-11 (9 ran) GF
16-4-13 (14 ran) GS

maidens over 6f
9-8-7 (9 ran) G
8-9-2 (8 ran) GF
13-7-11 (12 ran) S
5-3-7 (7 ran) GF
9-13-12 (12 ran) GF

Over races over 6f
7-3-6 (8 ran) S
4-6-5 (5 ran) GF

handicaps over 7f
7-13-6 (12 ran) G
9-4-6 (14 ran) GF
11-13-7 (14 ran) S
14-6-2 (16 ran) GS
10-9-4 (9 ran) GF
13-6-12 (12 ran) GF

other races over 7f
13-15-10 (15 ran) GS
9-4-5 (10 ran) GS

handicaps over 1m
4-7-8 (8 ran) GF
11-13-9 (17 ran) S
3-7-9 (9 ran) GS
10-3-11 (12 ran) GF
9-1-7 (8 ran) GS

30 races over the straight course

1 draw finished only twice in the frame (no wins)
2 draw finished only twice in the frame (no wins)
3 draw finished only 5 times in the frame (1 win)

You could argue some of the other numbers are not favoured either but i am pointing out a higher than usual draw bias this season. This cant be based on pace as its just too many races where the low drawn horses have not figured in the race. I havent taken account of nr's so that may account for some.

Handicaps over 5f to 7f look very stromg in favour of the higher draw

wont list the possible winners today, smaller fields today but seems to still happen.

[Anita Kokinme]

2.35 Newcastle - TAJNEED - win @ 7/1bog & Place @ 3.45

Rounded off last season with some cracking runs over 6f on ground softer than good. An adequate reappearance on the aw in March over the minimum trip, Dandy Nicholls' gelding will be suited by the step back up to 6f, is nicely drawn in 13, and will appreciate the rain softened ground.


3.10 Newcastle - WELL'S LYRICAL - win @ 9/1bog & Place @ 2.98

This Sadler's Wells colt reappeared in fine style at the end of April - going down only to the race fit Downhiller over 16f at Ripon, having ended last season completing a hat trick at Doncaster over a furlong shorter. Suited by an ground, today's will pose no worries, he is sure to come on for that reappearance and has a good draw in 2, a nice weight off 8-7, and could make up into better than a handicapper this season.


3.45 Newcastle - HORATIO CARTER - win @ 4/1bog and Place @ 2.18

Progressive this season, and ran a decent race having been poorly drawn at Royal Ascot, despite finishing 9th. Ran well here over this CD three runs back when a head 2nd to The Osteopath on similarly softened ground, and that winner followed up here on Thursday

[ken678]

Newcastle 16:20 - Chaperno (USA)
Suport last time out shows the yard obviously rate the animal which ran "well enough". Godolphin seem to be slowly coming to hand

[FleetFanatic]

Cheers Bowles for the stats - leading me to Haratio Carter taken at 7/2

[FleetFanatic]

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

3.45 Newcastle - HORATIO CARTER - win @ 4/1bog and Place @ 2.18

Progressive this season, and ran a decent race having been poorly drawn at Royal Ascot, despite finishing 9th. Ran well here over this CD three runs back when a head 2nd to The Osteopath on similarly softened ground, and that winner followed up here on Thursday

Well done Samba for influencing me too.