Newcastle Fri 26th June

[bowles10]

Selections in here please

will put up the prices of those drawn well tomorrow based on my stats i used today.

[Falbrav]

NORTHERN FLING 7.25 Newcastle.

0.5 points each way.

Recent form figures aren't inspiring, but not running quite as bad as they suggest when looking deeper into things. Gets in here off a lowered mark of 87, and in context with his best form, it does suggest he's capable of going close this evening. The trip and ground wouldn't be a concern and I like the fact the cheek-pieces go on tonight, which should sharpen him up a little, which could be the decidng factor. The odds are around 20/1 and after all said and done, and irrespective of the end result, I think that's a value price. Can get a good early position from stall 16 and if getting the race run to suit, then we should be involved in the finish.

[morlspin]

Just a weather update for you all. Its now starting to rain here and its a light drizzle at the moment. .
May be important for the selection process

[Samba_SamPa]

And it's been raining since Graeme posted, fluctuating between drizzle and heavier

[bowles10]

Draw stats from yesterday (yesterdays results in Bold)

Since thier April meeting, here are the results on the straight course at Newcastle (1-2-3)

handicaps over 5f
7-5-4 (6 ran) Good
14-13-9 (10 ran) G/F

maidens over 5f
5-1-4 (8 ran) G/soft

handicaps over 6f
6-7-8 (10 ran) G/F
13-8-12 (14 ran) G/F
16-4-3 (16 ran) G/F
9-10-11 (9 ran) GF

maidens over 6f
9-8-7 (9 ran) G
8-9-2 (8 ran) GF
13-7-11 (12 ran) S
5-3-7 (7 ran) GF
9-13-12 (12 ran) GF

Over races over 6f
7-3-6 (8 ran) S
4-6-5 (5 ran) GF

handicaps over 7f
7-13-6 (12 ran) G
9-4-6 (14 ran) GF
11-13-7 (14 ran) S
14-6-2 (16 ran) GS
10-9-4 (9 ran) GF
13-6-12 (12 ran) GF

other races over 7f
13-15-10 (15 ran) GS

handicaps over 1m
4-7-8 (8 ran) GF
11-13-9 (17 ran) S
3-7-9 (9 ran) GS
10-3-11 (12 ran) GF

25 races over the straight course

1 draw finished only once in the frame (no wins)
2 draw finished only twice in the frame (no wins)
3 draw finished only 5 times in the frame (1 win)

You could argue some of the other numbers are not favoured either but i am pointing out a higher than usual draw bias this season. This cant be based on pace as its just too many races where the low drawn horses have not figured in the race. I havent taken account of nr's so that may account for some.

Handicaps over 5f to 7f look very stromg in favour of the higher draw

Todays runners

7.25 5f
draw 16 Northern Fling 16/1 Bet365
draw 15 Tabaret 40/1 P Power
draw 14 Buachiall Dona 14/1 S James
draw 13 Green Manalishi 20/1 Hills

7.55 7f
draw 10 riley queen bee 9/2 P power
draw 9 Kammam 3/1 Ladbrokes

8.25 1m
draw 10 Byron Bay 20/1 Skybet
draw 9 Rosko 13/2 Sporting bet
draw 8 middlemarch 10/1 skybet

8.55 6f
draw 16 mark of meydan 10/1 Hills
draw 15 Spin again 6/1 bet365
draw 14 Charles parnell 14/1 Betfred
draw 13 Ingleby arch 10/1 Skybet
draw 12 Miss Daawe 16/1 Hills

9.30 5f
draw 9 noodles blue boy 3/1 coral
draw 8 York key bar 20/1 Bet365
draw 7 taurus twins 7/1 sporting bet

will be going win on all these again, a tricast would be nice also!

[fintron]

8.55 Newcastle

A large field for this 6f sprint but I think it may be possible to excuse Charles Parnell's last run and give the Michael Dods trained gelding another shot after a dissappointing 11th last time out. The yard are going great guns at present and with the benefit of a recent pipeopener at Pontefract (started from a wide draw and may have needed the run on first racecourse appearance since January) this 12/1 chance could be ready to score again. He was a model of consistency on the fibresand late last year and although the suspicion is he is probably a few pounds better on slower ground, he does still have wins on Good and Firm ground to his name and could go well from a decent draw here. Was second off this mark over course and distance last year (btn only 0.75 l).

[ken678]

Fathom Five- Newcastle: 7:25 - 8/1 Generally

According to the press had something in hand when winning last time. I didn't see the race but I think the Sporting Life is usually quite accurate in these things and I see a number of press tipsters I rate, inc Newmarket man at the Post, nap it so I will go with the hopefully, informed players. Would always worry aboutthe Nichlls runners tho in a contest like this

[bowles10]

Newcastle 7.25

Gosforth Park H'cap 5f

Last years winner Buachail Dona goes for a repeat win off 2lb higher than last years success. Runner up Hamish McGonagall has another attempt to beat it. Hamish is actually 10lb worse off with Nicholls runner, so i cant see that beating it, especially with Dona having a better draw also. Dona won from stall 2 last year & it will be interesting if anyone tracks to the far rail as no one did yesterday. With Captain Dunne in stall 1, that side could be interesting as that one loves to blaze a trail over 5f & was unlucky at Epsom LTO. Green Manalishi would have a chance as has won off higher, has a good draw & has a claimer on board (Amy Ryan). I have taken the 5.0 for a place on Betfair which i think is excellent value. Northern Fling is now 9lb lower than last win which was over 5f in April 08, but hasnt hit those heights since, however Nicholls is known to get them back.

Bets for me would be
Green Manalishi 5pts Place @ 5.00 Betfair
Buachaill Dona 16.0 Betfair 2pts win

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Newcastle 7.25

Gosforth Park H'cap 5f

Last years winner Buachail Dona goes for a repeat win off 2lb higher than last years success. Runner up Hamish McGonagall has another attempt to beat it. Hamish is actually 10lb worse off with Nicholls runner, so i cant see that beating it, especially with Dona having a better draw also. Dona won from stall 2 last year & it will be interesting if anyone tracks to the far rail as no one did yesterday. With Captain Dunne in stall 1, that side could be interesting as that one loves to blaze a trail over 5f & was unlucky at Epsom LTO. Green Manalishi would have a chance as has won off higher, has a good draw & has a claimer on board (Amy Ryan). I have taken the 5.0 for a place on Betfair which i think is excellent value. Northern Fling is now 9lb lower than last win which was over 5f in April 08, but hasnt hit those heights since, however Nicholls is known to get them back.

Bets for me would be
Green Manalishi 5pts Place @ 5.00 Betfair
Buachaill Dona 16.0 Betfair 2pts win

thought we had it then, a close 2nd, didnt help it was so far clear of the others on the stand side, winner came down the middle, was drawn 10, so my stats hold up again with stall 1 finishing 14th!

GM ran poorly, i know i shouldnt back ladies!

[bowles10]

7.55 another winner drawn 9 of 10

[bowles10]

8.55

Been looking at this race & again any number of horses can win this, from what i saw in the 7.25 race, prominent horses near side are worth looking at.

MISS DAAWE is one i like at a nice price still. Bound to be up with the pace & has won off higher mark last year. Goes well for the aprentce Betts. 16/1 hills go ew

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Draw stats from yesterday (yesterdays results in Bold)



Todays runners

7.25 5f
draw 16 Northern Fling 16/1 Bet365
draw 15 Tabaret 40/1 P Power
draw 14 Buachiall Dona 14/1 S James 2nd
draw 13 Green Manalishi 20/1 Hills
winner drawn in 10

7.55 7f
draw 10 riley queen bee 9/2 P power
draw 9 Kammam 3/1 Ladbrokes 1st

8.25 1m
draw 10 Byron Bay 20/1 Skybet
draw 9 Rosko 13/2 Sporting bet 1st
draw 8 middlemarch 10/1 skybet

8.55 6f
draw 16 mark of meydan 10/1 Hills 1st
draw 15 Spin again 6/1 bet365
draw 14 Charles parnell 14/1 Betfred
draw 13 Ingleby arch 10/1 Skybet
draw 12 Miss Daawe 16/1 Hills

9.30 5f
draw 9 noodles blue boy 3/1 coral
draw 8 York key bar 20/1 Bet365
draw 7 taurus twins 7/1 sporting bet

will be going win on all these again, a tricast would be nice also!

if only it was always this easy to reduce the fields to a handful

[chris34]

Well done yet again Bowles great work!!

[fintron]

good work with the trends Bowles

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

9.30 5f
draw 9 noodles blue boy 3/1 coral 1st
draw 8 York key bar 20/1 Bet365 3rd
draw 7 taurus twins 7/1 sporting bet 2nd

will be going win on all these again, a tricast would be nice also!

& a tricast up in the last, only paid £52 for a £1 combi, profit is profit