Newbury @ Saturday - 5.17.08

[PL_Crewman]

Newbury
2:45 Cesare
Cheveley Park Stud's highest rated runner last season at 123 RPR.
Cesare was rated 123 in two of his last 3 starts - LTO was for a win on reappearance 30Apr.
Should be in to battle to the end.
He's raced twice in a race price £100+ and finished beaten only 1 1/4L in them. - both by Ramonti.
Best effort have come with jockey Jamie Spencer on board, 5 wins from 8.
10pts win @ 4-1 Paddy Power


Newbury
2:45 Creachadoir (BBOTD)
Runner up in French and Irish 2000 Guineas last spring.
Godolphin has a good record in this race.
They also looked to have their runners in best shape - two wins and one second from last seven runners going into today.*
*Two wins and one second from last five with jockey L Dettori on board.
5pts ew @ 6-1 Betfred



Newbury
3:20 Ramona Chase
Trainer S Kirk is in very good form having won 3 of his last 6 going into today.
8 of 20 with 3yo's running on turf this season finished in the top 2 (4w,4s).
Jockey booked is Irish D P McDonogh. McDonogh has 4 wins from 21 runs for Kirk.
McDonogh also has only this ride scheduled for today.
5pts ew @ 9-1 Blue Square


Newbury
3:20 Trenchtown
Trainer and jockey combo has 3 wins from the last 7 going into today.
Trenchtown looked good in maiden company last season but off to a slow this year.
He does had LTO (8 of 11) as his handicap debut so today may show an improvement.
2pts ew @ 22-1 Bet365 BOG

[AK1979]

355 Newbury - Baby Strange ew @ 8/1 ladbrokes

Running well this year after missing a season through injury, he appreciated the return to 6f last time when placed in a competitive handicap. Still fairly treated compared to its 2 year old form and can run well again.

[mowgli77]

Newbury 2.45 Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes 1m Gp1 Good ground

I really like Cesare and feel conditions and trip are ideal today and it won at listed level with ease last time out for Jamie Spencer and he takes the ride again today. Has a touch of class about it, 6 wins over 1m, has won on all grounds from soft to good to firm, 2 from 2 in May races, and Spencer has 5 wins on the horse. The horse is ideal for his style of riding and as long as he doesn't find trouble in running he has to be close.

I also like Arabian Gleam and feel this is a horse that could win some good races this season. It impressed me in 2 maiden races and it was noted as one to folllow. It was behind Tariq twice over 7f, both times running on at the end of the race and once after being hampered. Eventually won a Group 2 at Doncaster over 7f on good to firm for Jonny Murtagh. May have been beaten by the draw in its last race at Newmarket but will be back to winning ways sooner rather than later. May need the race after 210 days off but at 33-1 I'm taking a chance on it being fit and ready to win.

The last one I fancy is Tariq, as mentioned finished in front of Arabian Gleam twice and looked like a 7f specialist but now expected to get 1m. Progressed well with 3 vctories back to back in Listed, Gp3 and Gp 2 company. Seems to prefer better ground and when tried over 1m was hampered so hard to judge that effort fairly. Has a nice turn of foot and if it gets this extra 1f it will be a real danger today.

[NIGEL2611]

1.35 Nisaal

Just under 12l eighth of 15 to subsequent Chester Vase third in a useful sort of maiden (second, third, sixth and tenth all won since).
Comes out well on the ratings (Topspeed & Racing Post).
Currently at 6/1 looks good Each Way value!

[bowles10]

big race today 2.45 Lockinge stakes

9 of last 10 winners 4 or 5yo's

9 of last 10 - under 10/1

Stoute & Godolphin - won 6 of last 10

Creachadoir 11/2
Haradasun 10/3
Phoenix Tower 6/1
Tariq 10/1

swayed towards the Godolphin horse however its those 4 against the fioeld for me.

[WoodyTHFC]

2.10 Regal Flush 5/4 var bog 15 pts I like malt or mash and he could be the main danger but Im tending to think he may need a strong pace to settle and then pounce late and he may not get that (melbourne cup would suit him down to the ground imo) So, godolphin's new rucruit from stoute looks the pick, on form figures it is up with the best here and no surprise, improved sharply last year from handicap wins to a good fourth in the leger. Godolphin have hardly hit the ground running (again) but now have started to have the odd winner now and may start to pick up, at last.

2.45 Phoenix Tower 6/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Tough race to call imo. O'brien's could be anything, rob roy should come for its last run, godolphins horse sometimes needs a bit more than a mile but not quite 10f and cesare was so impressive lto but that was at its loved asc., he did something similar last year in the same race only to be found out at the top level, will it be the same story this year? So going for the unbeaten improver in Pheonix tower, 4-4 so far and win lto was impressive in that it was a slowish and messy race and yet he still had the class to overcome that when he finally got the gaps. Looks capable of stepping up again to place at least.

3.20 Colony 5/2 15 pts Seems far too short in a competitive race but the truth is that this one is one who definitely looks one to keep on side of. Won last start last season and win at the start of this season was pretty impressive, stroming through late on to win with a hint of ease. I was on captain webb that day and that one boosted the form last night when winning in listed company well last night and could be set for royal ascot. This one has raised 8 pounds since his last run but that might not be enough to stop this improving type. Strategic Mission maybe best e.w of the rest.

4.30 Falconry 7/1 var 7.5 pts e.w fanshawe isnt that well known for hitting form at this stage of the season normally but without really hitting lots of winners, his string are running respectably notably the bigger guns. This one runs off a mark of 82 today and that looks quite fair. indeed on its second start it beat the well regarded sugar mint who is rated now 104. didnt show that well in the group 1 last start and this is its first start of the year and may well need the run somewhat but she does look reasonably handicapped especially on that second start.

5.35 Aqlaam 15/8 var bog 15 pts Only one run to go off but a very encouraging one at that at asc. Third in a race where the top 3 were clear of the rest, the rest actually have subsequently gone onto better things as the other two with this one (skadrak and atlantic sport have not yet boosted the top end of the form) However remains a useful prospect with the trainer hitting some form.

[stewartd14]

2.45 - Rob Roy / Barshiba

In a competitive race, I am going to gove the each way vote to a couple of longer priced selections. Both look to have decent chances, and although they need to step up on previous form, they look too good to ignore.

Rob Roy is trained by the in form Stoute team, who have had a great record in Group races this season. The stable is really hitting form, and that gives a boost to this horse's chances today. Rob Roy finished a creditable 2nd on his seasonal bow behind Major Cadeaux in a Group 2, and considering that was his 1st run after an absence, he should come on a lot for it. I dont rate the horse that highly, but he did nothing wrong last time out and with Ryan Moore on board, 16/1 looks too big.

Barshiba on the other hand is available at a huge 80/1 with some bookies and on the face of it, she looks to have an uphill struggle. However, she is one of the youngest in the field and open to plenty of improvement. Her form wasn't bad as a 3 year old and she managed to get herself in the winners enclosure in a listed race for fillies, beating a decent 18 runner field. That race took a lot of winning, and when stepped up in class she couldnt trouble the winners. However, when she faced her elders in the Group 1 Sun Chariout, she was only beaten 4 1/4 lengths behind Majestic Roi, who she re-opposes today. She beat the likes of Guineas winner Speciosa that day and she looked a filly on the upward curvve.

I liked her re-appearance this season when she was a staying on 3rd in a decent Group 3. Given that was her seasonal bow, she should come on a lot for that run and 80/1 looks huge.

Selections

Rob Roy EW @ 16/1
Barshiba EW @ 80/1

[mlmrob]

CREACHDOIR 2.45 NEWBURY

The form of Creachdoir’s second at Sha Tin has a very good look about it as the winner has subsequently won three Group 1 races. Godolphin have an excellent record in the race with 3 wins and 2 seconds from just 13 runners. Considering 5 of those were pacemakers, it clearly looks like a target race for them. With 7 out of the last 8 winners officially rated 114+ and 9 of the last 10 winners previously winning a Group 3, Creachdoir, who was runner up in both the French and Irish 200gns last year, should run well provided the rain doesn’t get in.

ROYAL ROCK 3.55 NEWBURY

Royal Rock is 3 from 4 over 6 furlongs and 3 from 3 when Baker rides. He hold entries in the Golden Jubilee and July Cup, both Group 1 races, so you would expect him to take this en-route to Royal Ascot. With a lot of these stepping up in grade, Royal Rock looks a decent bet.

[stewartd14]

3.20 - Colony

This looks the NAP of the day to me, and many others seem to think so, backing her down to as short as 2/1 in places. However, I am still willing to take that price even in a race of this nature. He has a tall reputation and Stoute rates him highly, and she backed his thoughts up when winning very impressively last time out over todays distance. He took a while to pick up that day but when he did he powered away from the field and looked a stayer in the making. He clearly had a lot left in the locker and I like his chances today. Granted, this is a step up in class, but Stoute is in great form and he places his horses well. He gets inn off a nice weight today and I think this could be a horse capable of reaching Group level.

Selection

Colony win - NAP @ 2/1

[stewartd14]

Other Selections

2.10 Malt Or Mash - Won the November handicap last term and wasnt disgraced in a better race last time out. Should enjoy the step back up in trip and the drop down in class. Hannon is in good form and she looks worth a bet at 6/1.

3.20 Strategic Mission - When he eventually won last season, he beat Clowance easily. Clowance has gone on to win inpressively since and looks an Oaks contender. Strategic Mission has improved with every run, and if he is fit, he can't be ignored today.16/1

3.55 Jimmy Styles - This horse showed a good attitude when winning last week, and I though he did it quite nicely. He showed a decisive turn of foot at a crucial stage and held on well. He reappears quickly and might be worth a squeak. 11/2

5.00 Belotto - Roger Charlton is coming into good form now and his 2 year olds are beginning to start winning. This one has to be followed at a decent price. 14/1

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

big race today 2.45 Lockinge stakes

9 of last 10 winners 4 or 5yo's

9 of last 10 - under 10/1

Stoute & Godolphin - won 6 of last 10

Creachadoir 11/2
Haradasun 10/3
Phoenix Tower 6/1
Tariq 10/1

swayed towards the Godolphin horse however its those 4 against the fioeld for me.

get in, lovely birthday present

1-2-3 from the 4 above & sneaked 11/2 on the winner, happy days

[stewartd14]

Originally Posted by bowles10

get in, lovely birthday present

1-2-3 from the 4 above & sneaked 11/2 on the winner, happy days

Tremendous mate.

[stewartd14]

Originally Posted by stewartd14

Other Selections


3.20 Strategic Mission - When he eventually won last season, he beat Clowance easily. Clowance has gone on to win inpressively since and looks an Oaks contender. Strategic Mission has improved with every run, and if he is fit, he can't be ignored today.16/1

1st @ 16/1

[PL_Crewman]

[stewartd14]

Well done those who took the risk with Creachadoir. Won quite nicely in the end.

[billy the punter]

Well done stewart
Well done AK - we knew there was a race in that didn't we.
Well done bowles

And the others who backed Creach, mlmrob, crewman (who napped it).

Mowglie - I fancied and backed Arabian Gleam (very small) at 70. I don't play big on group races, thought he ran really well.

[stewartd14]

Originally Posted by AK1979

355 Newbury - Baby Strange ew @ 8/1 ladbrokes

Running well this year after missing a season through injury, he appreciated the return to 6f last time when placed in a competitive handicap. Still fairly treated compared to its 2 year old form and can run well again.

Very nice mate. Layed Holbeck Ghyll so relieved personally and delighted yours got up.

[mlmrob]

Class tipping AK and Stewart. Superb.

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Well done stewart
Well done AK - we knew there was a race in that didn't we.
Well done bowles

And the others who backed Creach, mlmrob, crewman (who napped it).

Mowglie - I fancied and backed Arabian Gleam (very small) at 70. I don't play big on group races, thought he ran really well.

Did you get on just before the off, I got some 75 and then it kept going 70,65,60,55 and I think I got 11.0 for the place. Ran well, not too disappointed with that, also had Tariq win and place but Cesare lacked Gp1 class today.

[peteg40]

Well done today guys some nice winners

Nice present from you Rob.... Have a few tonight