Newbury ~ Friday 19/09/08

[mileni4uk]

All tips here lads

Is it good to soft? I think it is drying out and will probably be good? Any info on the radio etc.? Will appreciate it

[MidasTouch]

Hi All,

I thought I would let you know about these two Horse Alerts I put up on OLBG about a week ago. I said "Picked up some feedback on Sports Live Radio today on Sporting Life site in relation to a Horse working exceptionally well on the gallops?"

1:40 Newbury HUNTDOWN

A half-brother to a couple of 6f winners in Vainglory and Wingbeat, holds a Racing Post Trophy entry and is clearly expected to stay further in time. Lto RP's comment was "He seemed to know his job, travelling strongly just in behind the speed, and struck on from about a furlong and half out. This was a promising start and he should find a similar race. Was beaten in the shadows of the post by Absent Pleasure shhd. Roll on 25th October

3:05 Newmarket ABSENT PLEASURE

The same race produced the following comment from the RP "Stepped up markedly on his recent debut effort to score, landing some good bets in the process. Too inexperienced to get involved when fifth of nine to highly regarded stablemate Nasri at Newbury eight days earlier (6f, good to soft), he started to be niggled three out, but was switched towards the far rail racing into the final quarter-mile and stayed on strongly. The step up to 7f is expected to bring further improvement and he has plenty of scope.

I really do feel these both have a great chance today the prices may not be great? Ha-Ha When the first one wins it certainly franks the chances of the second and as the latter has an entry in the Dewhirst, I would say is well worth putting some early ante post money on!

Please note I have put up as full a comment on this as I could with thanks from the RP site but only because I didn't see the race, as I was away in the caravan.

Good Luck with these!

MidasTouch

[Spooner]

2:10 - Lizard Island

Lizard Island is having his first run after moving to Chapple-Hyam's stable. He ran some good races in Ireland under O'Brien. Raced once in England at Goodwood finishing 2nd to Rio de La Plata only beaten 2L.

Trip and ground should be fine for him today and I think Lizard Island could go closer than the price suggests.

25/1 E/W Corals

[mileni4uk]

2.45 Newbury - Spanish Moon

E/W

13/2 @ Bet365 - BOG

Has 5 lengths to find, but is 3lbs better in the weights and drying ground won't suite the fav. A little improvement is needed to go close and at 13/2 is definitely worth an e/w punt.

[WoodyTHFC]

2.10 Royal Vintage 7/2 var 15 pts A bit risky this one as this horse hasnt been seen in these country and hasnt run for ages. However de kock has done well with the horses he has brought over this year and seems to have big plans for this one. I remember it running in dubai this year and running extremely well, that is a different kettle of fish completely as its dirt for a start but his runs were impressive and tie in with honour devil. He had three runs against that classy horse and beat him the second start and looked set to do so again on his last effort but ran out of gas late on. He does have some turf form in south africa winning over 6f and 7f (his dubai form is over further) and indeed once with a touch more cut in the ground too. It is risky because he is a bit of unknown but clearly he is held in top regard with his group 1 entry and de kock doesnt send them over for nothing, if it is working he sends them back like asiatic boy this year. Almajd could be a darkhorse if he fulfills earlier promise.

5.05 Slip 11/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w Riden by an apprentice and possibly a wayward wide for such a rider but this rider has won on him before. For some of his wayward ways he remains talented and has thrived this season, going from a mark of 65 to 85 I dont think he is finished either. Looking at some of his recent runs he beat the useful ascot lime a few starts back and then only just went down to novikov, a horse who has since won, the third that day has also won since, lto he was extended to 12f I dont think that really suited on the a/w, back in trip today he has fair place claims at least.

[Spooner]

This Huntdown in the first has been steamed into all morning, Currently trading at 1.44 now.

My horse drifting on the exchanges, Three days in a row ive managed to find the drifters.

[billy the punter]

3.20

In Four Winds' write-up I mentioned that I liked the form of Delagator's madien win and that I believe the 1-2-3 could be decent.

The 2nd was Palavicini. Not ignored in the market 25s to 10s but was given plenty to do over 7f. He absolutely flew at the death, now the winner was eased a little but the turn of foot Palavicini showed isn't to be under estimated. With Four Winds winning in the week I'm hoping I will be proved right in thinking the front three from this race could be useful and despite this not being a maiden I'm hopeful Palavicini can take this before going on to greater things. I managed to get averaged at 2.28 (after R4) last night but still backable now.

Palavicini 100% of stake 2.06 betfair

[stewartd14]

3.20 FULL TOSS @ 10/3

Hannon's juveniles cant be ignored and I was very impressed with this horse last time when he did me a big favour.

I wrote this before his win at Chester:

To me, this looks like todays NAP. Hannon's juveniles are in cracking form, and this could be yet another winner fo this top firing yard. It was his excellent run at Goodwood last time behind Jukebox Jury that makes me fancy him so much today. That was a much better race and it was also a much better run that his rivals have managed. All in all, trainer form and horse form should make this horse a good thing albeit at short price.

He absolutely hosed up and although this is a better race, he is a horse on the upgrade and looks really well priced today. Experience will hopefully be an advantage and I am hopeful of a good run.

[billy the punter]

3.55

Another maiden which I'm sure will turn out to be decent is the fillies maiden won by Glen Molly here in August.

The 5th, 6th, 11th and 14th have won their maidens NTO and Suba who finished 3rd must have a chance of continuiing their trend of winning NTO.

She was fairly easy to back on her debut and the 6f would've been on the short side for her. Like Palavicini she is against winners here but should give a good account of herself.

Suba 100% of stake 4 betfair

[Spooner]

Originally Posted by MidasTouch

1:40 Newbury HUNTDOWN

A half-brother to a couple of 6f winners in Vainglory and Wingbeat, holds a Racing Post Trophy entry and is clearly expected to stay further in time. Lto RP's comment was "He seemed to know his job, travelling strongly just in behind the speed, and struck on from about a furlong and half out. This was a promising start and he should find a similar race. Was beaten in the shadows of the post by Absent Pleasure shhd. Roll on 25th October

Won easy, That 4/6 morning price looked a good price now!

[stewartd14]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

3.55

Another maiden which I'm sure will turn out to be decent is the fillies maiden won by Glen Molly here in August.

The 5th, 6th, 11th and 14th have won their maidens NTO and Suba who finished 3rd must have a chance of continuiing their trend of winning NTO.

She was fairly easy to back on her debut and the 6f would've been on the short side for her. Like Palavicini she is against winners here but should give a good account of herself.

Suba 100% of stake 4 betfair

Snap, I agree. the Godolphin horses come on a lot for their 1st runs also.

[billy the punter]

4.30

I wrote this about Invincible Heart LTO:

I think the market is wrong to have five horses backed in front of Invincible Heart. Despite not winning either of his two starts to date his form is a lot better than some of those backed in front of him.

He was 4th on debut to Wingwalker in a race that is working out well, the 2nd Delagator won well NTO (in a race that is also starting to work out), the 3rd Midnight Cruiser won a Newmarket maiden easily and thr 5th Mishrif bolted up the other day.

Was a close 5th to Absent Pleasure on quicker ground NTO and that race may be good form too, the 4th Adorn spreadeagled a field at Kempton NTO.

Now I'm not saying he will definitely go close or anything but he is massively overpriced - he is a cert to win a maiden and if he come here with a "1" next to his name he wouldn't be this price. Shame there are only 8 runners as I'd be having a decent EW bet.

He did indeed belie his 25/1 odds and ran a cracker to finish a close-up 3rd. Looking the winner 1 out.

He should have no problems in what looks like a weak maiden for the course.

Invincible Heart 100% of stake 1.70 betfair

Palavicini/Suba/Invincible Heart 50% E/W treble with Lads 11/10, 3/1, 8/11

[mileni4uk]

Same thoughts in my mind too

3.55 Newbury - Suba

Finished 3rd lto and 4 horses that were beaten went on to win their next race.
Should run a good race and can definitely register first win.

[billy the punter]

Running out of time. Kalahari Gold (2.10) has been one of my horses of the season so far - forced to step up in grade to be honest but has a chance of coping with the hike.

Multidimensional (2.45) is always a threat outside G1 company. Will only be having interest bets on those two though.

Will be playing in the 5.05 though, I backed Dar Es Salaam small last week when he was 2nd from out the handicap. He must have a chance off 70 after running so well then. Tri Nations was impressive on his penultimate start as if overpriced on pieces of form.

In the last Times Vital and Look To This Day seem to be going the right way and should win more races. Guardian Of Truth looks overpriced too.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Running out of time. Kalahari Gold (2.10) has been one of my horses of the season so far - forced to step up in grade to be honest but has a chance of coping with the hike.

[xcode]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Same thoughts in my mind too

3.55 Newbury - Suba

Finished 3rd lto and 4 horses that were beaten went on to win their next race.
Should run a good race and can definitely register first win.

FEELING FAB has a good chance as well. I will leave that alone

[malcolmas]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Running out of time. Kalahari Gold (2.10) has been one of my horses of the season so far - forced to step up in grade to be honest but has a chance of coping with the hike.

Multidimensional (2.45) is always a threat outside G1 company. Will only be having interest bets on those two though.

Will be playing in the 5.05 though, I backed Dar Es Salaam small last week when he was 2nd from out the handicap. He must have a chance off 70 after running so well then. Tri Nations was impressive on his penultimate start as if overpriced on pieces of form.

In the last Times Vital and Look To This Day seem to be going the right way and should win more races. Guardian Of Truth looks overpriced too.

What can I say - Well Done on those!

This Forum is on fire, particularly the last 24hrs

[RussP]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Running out of time. Kalahari Gold (2.10) has been one of my horses of the season so far - forced to step up in grade to be honest but has a chance of coping with the hike.

Multidimensional (2.45) is always a threat outside G1 company. Will only be having interest bets on those two though.

Will be playing in the 5.05 though, I backed Dar Es Salaam small last week when he was 2nd from out the handicap. He must have a chance off 70 after running so well then. Tri Nations was impressive on his penultimate start as if overpriced on pieces of form.

In the last Times Vital and Look To This Day seem to be going the right way and should win more races. Guardian Of Truth looks overpriced too.

Lucky git

Well done Billy, 3 more nice winners. Hope you managed to get on them all

[billy the punter]

Yeah I managed to get on them, and had the most on the winners (first mentioned is always the biggest fancy) when backing more than one.

3 form 4 races on that post, 9/2, 4/1 and 11/2.

They other three were disappointing but got out of it and more so.