Longchamp 07/10

[Carl]

DECLARATION OF WAR 2.25 Longchamp
Tipped this up on Friday this resulted it being a NR. Interesting that P.C.H has taken it to France

"DECLARATION OF WAR 1.35 Newmarket
Has already shown good form in group company, he was a good 2nd in the Group 2 on the July course earlier this year.
Just ran out of room LTO and should run well after a break."

Could be worth a e/w at 12/1

I like Rio for the win but might have an E/W on D.O.W

[Apollonios]

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Longchamp
Selection	Declaration Of War (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	07/10/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 17.00 (Back)
Reasoning	DECLARATION OF WAR was the second favourite in the Coventry Stakes, where he was unsuited by the the fast ground, in his last run he was a bit unlucky beaten by neck again in a fast ground, now he gets a Soft and this might be the case (afterall there are not ultra soft ground specialists in the race). So at least he has a good chance to get in the frame, in a massive price.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Longchamp
Selection	Sonny Red (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	07/10/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 34.00 (Back)
Reasoning	SONNY RED gets here conditions to suit. His only two wins came on a Soft ground at 5f, since than tried longer distances in a hot companies, on a faster ground, and was out of the map. Nevertheless was'nt that far beaten, even the difficult situations. Now he gets a top jockey on board, and has a massive price,and a small EW bet would'nt be a waste.

GL

[WoodyTHFC]

I can see this being a day for the fancied horses.

1.15 Kingsgate Native. I fancied it LTO for its York and I thought it won with a fair bit of style and clearly is a really speedy and good horse to take advantage of the weight for age scale. There is a question on the ground and the travel for a two year old but I think he has good enough credentials to answer those questions. Tiza is a speedy e.w alternative who amy not have a perfect draw but impressed me at times in Dubai and has won since so could go ok.

1.50 Laureldean Gale. Some unexposed horses in here that I know little about but Laureldean Gale appears to have the best form having pushed Proviso LTO and she and Listen dominate the 1000 Guineas market. First start for Goldophin can be a worry but that was no problem for the winner at Newmarket yesterday.

2.25 Rio de la Plata. It might be skinny odds but it looks a top class two year old having developed so much from its first run and eventually finish second to the two year old, New Approach. I will be disappointed if he cannot take this. Hatta Fort e.w may chase him home. He will want it to continue to dry out but Channon often speaks highly of this as one of his best two year olds and if Declaration of War is fancied then surely this one has him covered as I thought he was a cosy winner over him LTO.

3.00 Promising Lead e.w This looks a typical Stoute improver. She will need to against these classier sorts but some of them have doubts about them notably the trip and she looked a nice sort LTO really suggesting some class towards the finish.

3.40 Authorized is the boring selection but also the form horse. Fantastic in the Derby and forgiving the Eclpise run which was a messy race, he was superb LTO and has the wins over Soldier of Fortune and Dylan Thomas. I think 12f suits just right and the draw will mean he will swoop within the last 2f perfectly. Not too sure about Zambezi Sun or Soldier of Fortune but they could well prove me wrong. Dylan Thomas as highlighted on the other thread looks to have the drier conditions it wanted and was an e.w steal. 12f of a strong gallop in the King George was perfect and it could be again. Also at a big price Youmzain e.w may fill a place. He has it to find with Dylan Thomas but will the same Dylan Thomas turn up? Youmzain has often suggested that he has a big race in him, I cannot see him winning but I can see him perhaps nicking a place. Authorized, Dylan Thomas and Yomzain for me.

4.25 No value in Yeats.

Could be a day to put some of the favourites in an accumulator especially the Goldolphin pair.

[bowles10]

1.15

Benbaun is an old hand at group races having 19 attempts winning 5 Group 3's but never a G2 or G1. Loves the curragh & has the beating of a number of these on previosu outings.
Kingsgate native won a G1 on its 3rd ever race & made use of its allowances when winning the Nunthorpe at York LTO. Not raced on this going to date & that could be a factor. Gets over a stone from all its rivals today so is clearly well treated.
DandyMan has never won on anything slower than Good & the forecast soft ground still counts against him today.
Desert lord was the surprise winner of this race last year when the outside stalls dominated the race. Has close form with Benbaun & will no doubt be in the shake up again from stall 10.
Hogmaneigh will relish the ground & has a high draw but hold up horses will find it tough enough here.

for me its Benbaun vs Kingsgate native. The 2yo's allowance is very hard to ignore but Benbaun never goes down without a fight & might just worry the young un out of it. For value, Benbaun @ 15/2 Skybet is my pick.

[mowgli77]

...and Bowles lands a good priced winner with Benbaun

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

1.15


for me its Benbaun vs Kingsgate native. The 2yo's allowance is very hard to ignore but Benbaun never goes down without a fight & might just worry the young un out of it. For value, Benbaun @ 15/2 Skybet is my pick.

looks like i nailed the 1-2!!

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by Carl

DECLARATION OF WAR 2.25 Longchamp
Tipped this up on Friday this resulted it being a NR. Interesting that P.C.H has taken it to France

Could be worth a e/w at 12/1

I like Rio for the win but might have an E/W on D.O.W

Followed you in on that one each way because of the short price on Rio De La Plata. The winner was fantastic, different class and what a race it will be when it re opposes New Approach, hopefully in the Guineas. I should probably have done the forecast too but happy enough with 2nd.

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by WoodyTHFC

3.00 Promising Lead e.w This looks a typical Stoute improver. She will need to against these classier sorts but some of them have doubts about them notably the trip and she looked a nice sort LTO really suggesting some class towards the finish.

I'm also on this one. Hard to ignore the Stoute horses that keep improving each run. He had 2 decent winners recently with similar horses on the upgrade and it has every chance in this race.

[Carl]

Quote:

I'm also on this one. Hard to ignore the Stoute horses that keep improving each run. He had 2 decent winners recently with similar horses on the upgrade and it has every chance in this race.

unlucky lads mugged on the line

still decent E/W price

[WoodyTHFC]

Originally Posted by WoodyTHFC

I can see this being a day for the fancied horses.

1.15 Kingsgate Native. I fancied it LTO for its York and I thought it won with a fair bit of style and clearly is a really speedy and good horse to take advantage of the weight for age scale. There is a question on the ground and the travel for a two year old but I think he has good enough credentials to answer those questions. Tiza is a speedy e.w alternative who amy not have a perfect draw but impressed me at times in Dubai and has won since so could go ok.

1.50 Laureldean Gale. Some unexposed horses in here that I know little about but Laureldean Gale appears to have the best form having pushed Proviso LTO and she and Listen dominate the 1000 Guineas market. First start for Goldophin can be a worry but that was no problem for the winner at Newmarket yesterday.

2.25 Rio de la Plata. It might be skinny odds but it looks a top class two year old having developed so much from its first run and eventually finish second to the two year old, New Approach. I will be disappointed if he cannot take this. Hatta Fort e.w may chase him home. He will want it to continue to dry out but Channon often speaks highly of this as one of his best two year olds and if Declaration of War is fancied then surely this one has him covered as I thought he was a cosy winner over him LTO.

3.00 Promising Lead e.w This looks a typical Stoute improver. She will need to against these classier sorts but some of them have doubts about them notably the trip and she looked a nice sort LTO really suggesting some class towards the finish.

3.40 Authorized is the boring selection but also the form horse. Fantastic in the Derby and forgiving the Eclpise run which was a messy race, he was superb LTO and has the wins over Soldier of Fortune and Dylan Thomas. I think 12f suits just right and the draw will mean he will swoop within the last 2f perfectly. Not too sure about Zambezi Sun or Soldier of Fortune but they could well prove me wrong. Dylan Thomas as highlighted on the other thread looks to have the drier conditions it wanted and was an e.w steal. 12f of a strong gallop in the King George was perfect and it could be again. Also at a big price Youmzain e.w may fill a place. He has it to find with Dylan Thomas but will the same Dylan Thomas turn up? Youmzain has often suggested that he has a big race in him, I cannot see him winning but I can see him perhaps nicking a place. Authorized, Dylan Thomas and Yomzain for me.

4.25 No value in Yeats.

Could be a day to put some of the favourites in an accumulator especially the Goldolphin pair.

Just to sum up then, the Arc was really good for me with the 1-2 but quite mixed with some of the others. Tiza is one for the notebook as it was flying at the end and made notable ground, Rio De La Plata looked quite impressive but the way it just took a stride or two to pick up the reasonably exposed front runner just suggests to me it would have a better chance possibly in the Derby than the Guineas where it might just lack that turn of foot. Also if Goldophin do this stupid policy of training him in Dubai then I would not fancy him for the Guineas as the race would come to soon in this environment but the extra time for the Derby could be more favourable.

[Woodie]

Awesome weekend away gets better every year, anyone who hasn't been your missing out the best racing in Europe. Glad Dylan Thomas won the big one top class, Rio was impressive so was Ann Pavlova on the saturday what a ride Frankie gave that. All in all made a nice profit over the 2 days and can't wait for next year

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by Woodie

Awesome weekend away gets better every year, anyone who hasn't been your missing out the best racing in Europe. Glad Dylan Thomas won the big one top class, Rio was impressive so was Ann Pavlova on the saturday what a ride Frankie gave that. All in all made a nice profit over the 2 days and can't wait for next year

Rio time was not very good and IMO beat very little. Had no bet in that race,

Still It was a good weekend for me with my biggest bet Satwa Queen(got 9/2 with Bet365) just getting up in the last stride.

Had a decent lunch in the Brasserie on the first day( far too dear on Arc day IMO). Enjoyed the escargot and prawns starter followed by delicious braised lamb all washed down by some nice vino. I had tickets in the stands upstairs and getting drinks and bets on was no problem there on the Sunday. I travelled with Swinley a specialist company and used the Eurostar.

Saturday was memorable with France winning .

The French know how to put on an event. Maybe back for the Prix D Amerique in January the world championship of trotting.