Key Race: Totesport Trophy - Newbury Saturday 13th Feb - Winner Get me out of here

[bowles10]

will add further detail on this excellent handicap hurdle

Previous winners

Year	Winner	Age	Weight	Jockey	Trainer
1980	Bootlaces	6	10-09	Paul Leach	David Barons
1981	no race 1981
1982	Donegal Prince	6	10-08	John Francome	Paul Kelleway
1983	no race 1983 [1]
1984	Ra Nova	5	10-06	P. Farrell	Mrs N. Kennedy
1985	no race 1985–86 [2]
1987	Neblin	8	10-00	Stan Moore	Toby Balding
1988	Jamesmead	7	10-00	Brendan Powell	David Elsworth
1989	Grey Salute	6	11-05	Richard Dunwoody	John Jenkins
1990	Deep Sensation	5	11-03	Richard Rowe	Josh Gifford
1991	no race 1991 [3]
1992	Rodeo Star	6	10-10	Graham McCourt	Nigel Tinkler
1993	King Credo	8	10-00	Adrian Maguire	Steve Woodman
1994	Large Action	6	10-08	Jamie Osborne	Oliver Sherwood
1995	Mysilv	5	10-08	Jamie Osborne	Charles Egerton
1996	Squire Silk	7	10-12	Paul Carberry	Andrew Turnell
1997	Make a Stand	6	11-07	Chris Maude	Martin Pipe
1998	Sharpical	6	11-01	Mick Fitzgerald	Nicky Henderson
1999	Decoupage	7	11-00	Jimmy McCarthy	Charles Egerton
2000	Geos	5	11-03	Mick Fitzgerald	Nicky Henderson
2001	Landing Light	6	10-02	Mick Fitzgerald	Nicky Henderson
2002	Copeland	7	11-07	Tony McCoy	Martin Pipe
2003	Spirit Leader	7	10-00	Norman Williamson	Jessica Harrington
2004	Geos	9	10-09	Marcus Foley	Nicky Henderson
2005	Essex	5	11-06	Barry Geraghty	Michael O'Brien
2006	no race 2006 [4]
2007	Heathcote	5	10-06	Jamie Moore	Gary L. Moore
2008	Wingman	6	10-00	Jamie Moore	Gary L. Moore

[bowles10]

called off in 2009 due to snow

lets hope we get the meeting on.

[bowles10]

Henderson set to trim Trophy team

Nicky Henderson may only have a team of three for this weekend's totesport Trophy at Newbury, with Stravinsky Dance a doubtful runner despite being among the 28 entries.
Owned by Robert Waley-Cohen, it had been planned that his son Sam would ride Long Run at Warwick before flying over to Newbury to partner the mare but a change in race times means that now will not be possible. Henderson still has one of the ante-post favourites in Spirit River, with Fairyland and First Point also engaged.
"We made a plan about four weeks ago when we discussed Long Run as Stravinsky Dance was always being aimed at this. Sam is a pilot and he was going to fly himself from one to the other and the timing was perfect. It was only (on Sunday) it came to our attention that the times had changed," said Henderson.
"They are Robert's horses, everybody knows Sam rides them but he can't do both. He's got to ride Long Run so it's likely that Stravinsky Dance won't run.
"We went to Ascot on a fact-finding mission and learned quite a few things. She (Stravinsky Dance) doesn't want to get buried in a big field, she wants to go the other way round and she wants to be up there so this might not be the race to do it in anyway.
"Hopefully wherever she goes next you'll see something slightly more encouraging than that. Obviously we thought she was quite good because she had been working very well. We thought she'd win the Ladbroke but there wasn't one. I would like to have a go on Saturday but if things dictate we can't, we'll find something else.
"I think First Point will run. For chasing purposes he probably needs really good ground as it helps him jump out of it. He's badly handicapped over fences for what he has achieved and I don't really know where to go with him.
"It's a question of saying let's have a bit of fun with him. He ran well in a couple of big handicaps last season. When the ground is better in the spring he'll go back over fences.
"Fairyland was very good at Newbury. She's missed a couple of targets with the weather but she's fit and well, acts on all ground and definitely stays which you need to do in a race like this. If nothing is prepared to go on we are not frightened of making the running with her.
"I think you'd have to be impressed with what Spirit River did at Cheltenham so it was the natural progression to come straight here. He certainly didn't need to do anything else to get any more weight."

[jtw1]

David Pipe intends saddling leading fancies Ronaldo Des Mottes and Mamlook for the totesport Trophy at Newbury on Saturday.
Ronaldo Des Mottes won a Kempton handicap on his last run over Christmas, while Mamlook took a Grade Two prize at Ascot last month. A decision on a third contender, Mutual Friend, will be made later in the week.
"Ronaldo des Mottes and Mamlook are both in good form. They came out of their last races very well and this has always been the plan for them since," said the trainer.
"The race Ronaldo won at Kempton was competitive. I don't know about the standard, but he was impressive. Timmy (Murphy) got after him and he put his head down and battled and he was pulling away at the end.
"He's run right-handed on most occasions, but I can't see Newbury or going left-handed being a problem really. The ground should be fine.
"Mamlook is very versatile as regards trip and in this race they go a good gallop.
"Newbury is a lovely galloping track and he wouldn't be slow at home. He's been placed in races like the Cesarewitch and Ascot Stakes yet possesses speed as well, and he's always been a very good traveller in all his hurdle races.
"In theory he is 2lb well-in, and he has a nice weight if Blue Bajan stays in. I would have thought Tom Scudamore will ride Mamlook with Timmy on Ronaldo Des Mottes.
"Mutual Friend went up a lot in the handicap for his win at Cheltenham. He is a bit better going left-handed, but he likes better ground and I've not decided if he is going to run yet."

[jtw1]

Totesport Trophy betting:
Sponsors bet: 11-2 Spirit River, 7-1 Harry Tricker, 8-1 Get Me Out Of Here, Ronaldo Des Mottes, 10-1 Mamlook, Takeroc, 12-1 Fairyland, Manyriverstocross, 14-1 Stravinsky Dance, 20-1 bar.

[alexmac]

Songe has been backed at long odds for the Totesport Trophy following an upbeat report by trainer Charlie Longsdon.

Ladbrokes have cut the six-year-old to 33-1 from 50-1 after Longsdon revealed Songe had undergone a soft palate operation to help him finish his races.

"Songe would be the worst each-way result of the race," said Ladbrokes spokesman David Williams.

"We laid the 50-1 to a few shrewd punters and will be praying he doesn't make it into the frame."

Longsdon hopes the operation has done the trick after Songe disappointed in his three starts so far this season.

"He's all geared for Newbury. He's been treated for a soft palate," said the Chipping Norton handler.

"I'd been concerned he wasn't quite finishing his races like he used to and he wanted to see what we could do. We had the vet have a look at him and we fired a soft palate.

"He's in great form and I'm hoping that will help him. Last year he was top weight in it and was 12lb higher in the handicap.

"He has dropped in the ratings, so I'm hoping he will run pretty well.

"He had the soft palate done just before Christmas. It's not an operation where they have to have a long time off. They just have a week off and then they can start with steady work again.

"You never know if it's going to work the oracle but hopefully it will have sorted it out."

Spirit River heads the market at 11-2 with the sponsors and jockey Barry Geraghty believes his mount has the right credentials for the valuable handicap.

Nicky Henderson's runner has been a strong fancy following his impressive victory at Cheltenham in December.

"He could be well handicapped. He won well at Cheltenham on only his second start in England. He gave me a nice feel so I'm looking forward to the race," Geraghty told At The Races.

"It will be a hot race, it always is, but I think he's the right sort for it."

The sponsors report strong support for Numide, who bids to give trainer Gary Moore a third win in the race.

"Numide has been popular with the sponsors for the totesport Trophy this weekend and has been cut to 20-1 (from 33s) as he aims to give trainer Gary Moore a hat-trick of wins in the race following victories for Heathcote and Wingman in 2007 and 2008 respectively," said the firm's spokesman George Primarolo.

[Trendsman]

With Menorah not running in this - i am interested in Get Me Out of Here in this

[bowles10]

Totesport Trophy @ Newbury

Won by Nicky henderson 4 times in last 11 years.

I have analysed the stats:

Favs 2/11
5-7yo 10/11
Weight between 10st 9lb & 11st 7lb 7/11
Leops or Chelt LTO 7/11
Jan LTO 8/11
Nov or Jan LTO 10/11
SP 16/1 or under 10/11
Won no further than 19f 10/11
Grade win 1/11
Course win 1/11
Debut on course 8/11
2+ career hurdle wins 11/11
LTO 1st or 2nd 7/11
LTO 1st 4/11
Wins / runs 25% + 9/11

Just looking at stats alone, these seem to be key:

5-7yo
won no further than 19f
Nov or Jan LTO (this may be misleading now?)
2+ career hurdle wins

this removes Blue bajan, Spirit river, ring the boss, culcabock, manyriverstocross, arch rebel, pascha bere, first avenue, siberian tiger.

that removes 9 from the 28 declared to date leaving a smaller field to deal with of 19.

Course winners dont appear to do weel either with only 1 in last 11 winners having won here previously, this could be misleading as the % may be quite low. get me out of here and fairyland are the 2 course winners left in my 19, i wont discount them yet.

more to come....

[jtw1]

Taking an alternative look at the Trends [ some of which concur with Bowles]

Only 1 winner since 1980 has been aged 9yo or over.
14/14 ran at Class 2 or better LTO
13/14 returned at odds no higher than 16/1
13/14 has finished in the first 2 in either of their last 2 runs
13/14 had won at least twice in NH company [ interestingly 7 of the last 9 had won exactly 3 times over NH rules]
13/14 had won at Class 3 or better
8/8 who had Flat experience had won at least one Flat race.

Will wait until tomorrow until having a study

[jtw1]

1		3084-67	Blue Bajan (IRE) 22	8	11-12	Andrew Turnell	Nick Scholfield	155		SP SP 33/1
2		323P10	Mutual Friend (USA) 85	6	11-0 p1	D Pipe	H Frost (3)	143		SP SP 40/1
3		6404-21	Mamlook (IRE) (ex5) 21	6	11-0	D Pipe	T Scudamore	145		SP SP 8/1
4		908-427	Songe (FR) 63	6	10-13	C E Longsdon	T Siddall	142		SP SP 33/1
5		357P7-5	Takeroc (FR) 14	7	10-13	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	141		SP SP 9/1
6		1120-01	Ronaldo Des Mottes (FR) 48	5	10-13	D Pipe	T J Murphy	142		SP SP 7/1
7		51-51	Spirit River (FR) 64	5	10-12	N J Henderson	B J Geraghty	141		SP SP 6/1
8		1-6114U	First Point (GER) 26	7	10-12	N J Henderson	David Bass (7)	141		SP SP 25/1
9		37-38F0	Simarian (IRE) 14	5	10-11	Evan Williams		138		SP SP 40/1
10		410-7U0	Ring The Boss (IRE) 64	9	10-11 b1	P J Hobbs	T J O'Brien	140		SP SP 40/1
11		1135-90	Stravinsky Dance 21	5	10-9	N J Henderson	R J Killoran (3)	138		SP SP 14/1
12		112325	Any Given Day (IRE) 46	5	10-9	D McCain Jnr	J M Maguire	138		SP SP 25/1
13		63-P512	Harry Tricker 90	6	10-9 p	G L Moore	A Glassonbury (3)	138		SP SP 6/1
14		5201-20	Frontier Dancer (IRE) 21	6	10-7	N A Twiston-Davies	P J Brennan	136		SP SP 25/1
15		1317	Manyriverstocross (IRE) 46	5	10-6	A King	R Thornton	135		SP SP 11/1
16		1111	Get Me Out Of Here (IRE) 79	6	10-6	Jonjo O'Neill	A P McCoy	135		SP SP 9/1
17		2U6-267	European Dream (IRE) 6	7	10-6 p	R C Guest	P Aspell	135		SP SP 33/1
18		10-8331	Fairyland (GER) 77	7	10-4	N J Henderson	Felix De Giles	133		SP SP 16/1
19		23/21-P1	Fushe Jo 91	6	10-4	J Howard Johnson	Ryan Mania (3)	133		SP SP 25/1
20		54-4249	Numide (FR) 48	7	10-3	G L Moore	P Hide	132		SP SP 20/1
21		83-0233	Pascha Bere (FR) 70	7	10-0	N J Gifford	L Treadwell	129		SP SP 33/1
22		060/820	Arch Rebel (USA) 21	9	10-0 p	Noel Meade	D J Condon	129		SP SP 33/1
23		130-228	Oldrik (GER) 14	7	10-0 p	P J Hobbs	R Johnson	129		SP SP 33/1
24		820-614	Chaninbar (FR) 23	7	10-0 p	M F Harris	P Toole (5)	128		SP SP

[billy the punter]

Manyriverstocross was a decent flat handicapper, thriving on the strong pace and hustle and bustle those competitive races provide. Saturday’s Totesport Trophy at Newbury will provide a similar test, so if we see similar improvement over hurdles as we did on the flat under such conditions, it’s likely that Alan King’s gelding is potentially well treated.

He was a facile winner of an uncompetitive Chepstow maiden hurdle before suffering due to the lack of pace, and the sprint finish that ensued, when beaten at odds-on at Ascot in November.

He was stepped up in trip for his third start, a five-runner Grade 2 event at Sandown. Despite the small field the pace was generous (time decent for the ground), and Manyriverstocross settled well in rear before running out a comfortable winner.

He was sent off just 9/2 for the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury on his last start but once again the race wasn’t run to suit, a slowly run 2m5f will always result in him racing keenly and as a result he trailed home in seventh.

Although his optimum trip over hurdles may be over further in time, a strongly run 2m will surely suit at present. We’re yet to see the best of him over hurdles, and for the reasons explained above he is possibly under rated by the handicapper and almost certainly under rated in the market.

Last season’s Tingle Creek third, Paul Nicholls’ Takeroc, is rated 12lbs lower over hurdles than he is over fences, despite boasting consistent form over the smaller obstacles – twice a runner-up in Grade 2 company in 2008.

He lost his way after his Tingle Creek effort last season (including when tried with a tongue-tie) but his problems could be behind him after undergoing a breathing operation before the start of the season.

He made a pleasing comeback when fifth (of sixteen) to Arctic Magic at Cheltenham last month, incidentally the race won by Copeland and Landing Light on their way to Tote Gold Trophy success. It looked as if the run would bring him and at the prices he warrants inclusion in any betting plan off a mark of 142.

Totesport Trophy
Manyriverstocross 1pt win
14/1 Bet365, Coral

Takeroc 1pt win
14/1 Bet365, Coral, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power

Now 12/1 & 11/1

[Stevet1859]

Any Given Day 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 Ladbrokes

Any Given Day looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest. He seems to be reasonably handicapped. He ran well for a long way in the Challow hurdle before running out of petrol and this drop back to shorter looks likely to suit. He handles the going and his trainer is in good form. He also fits quite a few of the trends of past winners. Suspect that Any Given Day's price is likely to be shorter on Saturday.

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by Stevet1859

Any Given Day 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 Ladbrokes

Any Given Day looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest. He seems to be reasonably handicapped. He ran well for a long way in the Challow hurdle before running out of petrol and this drop back to shorter looks likely to suit. He handles the going and his trainer is in good form. He also fits quite a few of the trends of past winners. Suspect that Any Given Day's price is likely to be shorter on Saturday.

One I gave much consideration too.

Finished a long way in front on Manyriverstocross in the Challow after travelling well - obviously I'm of the belief that it wasn't Manyrivers' true running.

I too think AGD is possibly overpriced.

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Manyriverstocross was a decent flat handicapper, thriving on the strong pace and hustle and bustle those competitive races provide. Saturday’s Totesport Trophy at Newbury will provide a similar test, so if we see similar improvement over hurdles as we did on the flat under such conditions, it’s likely that Alan King’s gelding is potentially well treated.

He was a facile winner of an uncompetitive Chepstow maiden hurdle before suffering due to the lack of pace, and the sprint finish that ensued, when beaten at odds-on at Ascot in November.

He was stepped up in trip for his third start, a five-runner Grade 2 event at Sandown. Despite the small field the pace was generous (time decent for the ground), and Manyriverstocross settled well in rear before running out a comfortable winner.

He was sent off just 9/2 for the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury on his last start but once again the race wasn’t run to suit, a slowly run 2m5f will always result in him racing keenly and as a result he trailed home in seventh.

Although his optimum trip over hurdles may be over further in time, a strongly run 2m will surely suit at present. We’re yet to see the best of him over hurdles, and for the reasons explained above he is possibly under rated by the handicapper and almost certainly under rated in the market.

Last season’s Tingle Creek third, Paul Nicholls’ Takeroc, is rated 12lbs lower over hurdles than he is over fences, despite boasting consistent form over the smaller obstacles – twice a runner-up in Grade 2 company in 2008.

He lost his way after his Tingle Creek effort last season (including when tried with a tongue-tie) but his problems could be behind him after undergoing a breathing operation before the start of the season.

He made a pleasing comeback when fifth (of sixteen) to Arctic Magic at Cheltenham last month, incidentally the race won by Copeland and Landing Light on their way to Tote Gold Trophy success. It looked as if the run would bring him and at the prices he warrants inclusion in any betting plan off a mark of 142.

Totesport Trophy
Manyriverstocross 1pt win
14/1 Bet365, Coral

Takeroc 1pt win
14/1 Bet365, Coral, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power

Now 12/1 & 11/1

We Agree Billy! On Manyriverstocross, same reasons. I was going to wait until tonight to bet but Mr. Packman has just gone for the two I like at the prices.

Manyriverstocross and Get Me Out Of Here.

Now I see you took the 14/1 Billy.
I've taken 11/1, missed the 12's by seconds!
Still, I make him an 11.5% 15/2 shot, so still fairly good.

Get Me Out Of Here is 9/1, I make him 14% 6/1.

He was given a lot to do when winning a slowly run 2 mile race at the track, under McWotsit. Even better than the result. AP can get more out of him too.

Have a smaller bet on Ronaldo Des Mottes at 11/1 on Betfair. For similar reasons to GMOOH. Winning a slowly run race given plenty to do.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Totesport Trophy @ Newbury

Won by Nicky henderson 4 times in last 11 years.

I have analysed the stats:

Favs 2/11
5-7yo 10/11
Weight between 10st 9lb & 11st 7lb 7/11
Leops or Chelt LTO 7/11
Jan LTO 8/11
Nov or Jan LTO 10/11
SP 16/1 or under 10/11
Won no further than 19f 10/11
Grade win 1/11
Course win 1/11
Debut on course 8/11
2+ career hurdle wins 11/11
LTO 1st or 2nd 7/11
LTO 1st 4/11
Wins / runs 25% + 9/11

Just looking at stats alone, these seem to be key:

5-7yo
won no further than 19f
Nov or Jan LTO (this may be misleading now?)
2+ career hurdle wins

this removes Blue bajan, Spirit river, ring the boss, culcabock, manyriverstocross, arch rebel, pascha bere, first avenue, siberian tiger.

that removes 9 from the 28 declared to date leaving a smaller field to deal with of 19.

Course winners dont appear to do weel either with only 1 in last 11 winners having won here previously, this could be misleading as the % may be quite low. get me out of here and fairyland are the 2 course winners left in my 19, i wont discount them yet.

more to come....

ok time for some more analysis,

2008 wingman 2 wins, 1 flat track sand
2007 heathcote 3 wins, 1 flat track ling
2005 Essex 3 wins, 1 flat track leops
2004 Geos 5 wins 3 flat tracks
2003 Spirit Leader 2 wins, 1 flat track sand
2002 Copeland 3 wins 2 flat tracks sand
2001 Landing Light 1 win 1 flat track winc
2000 Geos 1 win 1 flat track leics
1999 Decoupage 3 wins, 1 flat track Ayr
1998 Sharpical 2 wins, 1 flat track, Folks

so in last 10 runnings, all 10 had a previous win on a flat track, and the winners had between 1 & 5 NH wins, although 9/10 had 1-3 wins.

from the horses i had left from the previous omissions i made,

mutual friend - 4 wins, 2 flat tracks
mamlook - 4 wins, 4 flat tracks
Songe - 3 wins, 2 flat tracks
Takeroc - 2 wins, 1 flat track
Ronaldo Des Mottes - 3 wins 3 flat tracks
Simarian - 4 wins, 1 flat track
Stravinsky dance - 2 wins,
Any given day 3 wins, 1 flat track
Harry Tricker 2 wins, 1 flat track
Frontier Dancer 3 wins, 1 flat track
Get me out of here 4 wins, 3 flat tracks
European Dream 4 wins, 3 flat tracks
Fairyland 3 wins, 2 flat tracks
Fushe Jo 2 wins, 2 flat tracks
Numide 3 wins, 2 flat tracks
Oldrik 3 wins, 1 flat track
Chaninbar 4 wins, 1 flat track

There is a lot of winners in the field so plenty of experience. I am gearing towards Harry Tricker, Frontier Dancer, Fairyland, Numide, Ronald Des Mottes

The SP stat has only been breached once in the last 11 years with 50/1 shot heathcote winning 2 years ago.

more to come....

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

Taking an alternative look at the Trends [ some of which concur with Bowles]

Only 1 winner since 1980 has been aged 9yo or over.
14/14 ran at Class 2 or better LTO
13/14 returned at odds no higher than 16/1
13/14 has finished in the first 2 in either of their last 2 runs
13/14 had won at least twice in NH company [ interestingly 7 of the last 9 had won exactly 3 times over NH rules]
13/14 had won at Class 3 or better
8/8 who had Flat experience had won at least one Flat race.

Will wait until tomorrow until having a study

As usual unless there's a major surprise it seem's sensible to look at those around the 20/1 mark or under so thats BLUE BAJAN , MUTUAL FRIEND , SONGE , FIRST POINT , SIMARIAN , RING THE BOSS , FRONTEIR DANCER , EUROPEAN DREAM , FLUSHE JO , PASHA BERE , ARCH REBEL , OLDRIK and CHANINBAR removed from the equation .

TAKEROC , STRAVINSKI DANCE and NUMIDE all failed to make the frame in either of their last 2 runs.

Although a winner LTO , RONALDO DES MOTTES , SPIRIT RIVER and GETMEOUTOFHERE all ran below Cl 2 grade .

ANY GIVEN DAY has only won at Cl4 grade over NH rules .

That leaves 4 to peruse - MAMLOOK , HARRY TRICKER , MANYRIVERSTOCROSS and FAIRYLAND .

Back later

[bowles10]

i wont be far off that Jtw1, my worry with Mamlook is that it appears to be an ascot specialist which is not as testing as Newbury IMO.

Fairyland & Harry Tricker will be on my shortlist

[diamond1924]

good work trendsmen! I did a labourious top to bottom analysis of each horse and came up with Harry Tricker!

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by bowles10

i wont be far off that Jtw1, my worry with Mamlook is that it appears to be an ascot specialist which is not as testing as Newbury IMO.

Eh, I don't understand Bowles.
You are concerned Newbury will be too testing for Mamlook?
Don't you mean the opposite?
Mamlook won / improved last time at Ascot over 2m3f. Mamlook is also a stayer on the flat. So the question surely should be, is Newbury's 2m going to be testing enough?

[jtw1]

Although MAMLOOK has won twice over 2m , last time was Apr '08 , he seems to have been aimed at distances further than this 17f in his latest runs with the exception of his 2nd place in the Elite @ Wincanton in Nov .
The going will suit but whether the course and distance will suit is up for discusion .
2 wins at Ascot , a RH track with a stiff uphill finish and sharpish turns and 2 wins at Warwick [ sharp track] and Market Rasen [ sharp , und track ] immediately says to me Newbury will not be ideal for him .
He does have experience of big fields and has been placed in 20+ runner races which has to be an advantage.

HARRY TRICKER has a problem for me in that he has not ran for 90 days and his record for re-appearing after a 60 day break is 6 , 0 , pu .
the ground may just be on the slow side for him as 3 of his 4 career wins [Flat + NH] have come on GOOD going .
The current going f/cast is G/S with soft in place's.

FAIRYLAND comes into the race relatively lightly raced and his record in Hurdle races is impressive -11 runs with 3 wins , 4 seconds and 2 thirds.
He has not run for 77 days but his record after a 60 day+ break is far better than Harry Tricker's - 2 , 2 , 1 , 3 .
He comes from a yard who has won this 4 times in the past 10 runnings.
However one thing that maks me wary is his apparent preference for better ground .
His 2 NH wins have been on Good ground and those were 5 + 7 runner races .
He has ran twice in 20+ runner races and he was not disgraced but he only finished 11th and 8th in them.

MANYRIVERTOCROSS could be anything as he has only had 4 runs in NH company and has won 2 of them.
A decent performer on the Flat his stable seems to be coming to hand but his last 2 runs have been over 20+21f which beggars the question why step back in distance .
If the ground were a bit softer i'd give him a better chance .

SUMMARY - MANYRIVERSTOCROSS may well come home in front as he looks like being well handicapped , more rain might have helped his chance imo but i'm tempted to give the nod to MAMLOOK even though Newbury may not be ideal , he does have winning form on Soft - Good ground and , more importantly he is used to large fields .
The Pipe yard have won this twice in the last 11 runnings .

If the ground were a bit faster i'd have been tempted to go for FAIRYLAND and i'll keep an eye on tomorrow's times in the earlier races ,but as it is right now MAMLOOK is the selection .