Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

[WoodyTHFC]

One more GN bet that I placed a little while ago when the weights came out. Now this bet is slightly out of loyalty to one of my favourites that i have talked of loads of times, Cornish Rebel who I got 350 2 pts Betf and 50 place 3 pts. Since I placed it, it drifted to a best of 700 but has recently come in sharply although 100/1 is still widely available. Going through the form, it was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, placed in a RSAC, second in a SGN when beaten by Joes Edge giving weight when it should have won, placed in a Hennessy of a big weight and WGN. Then it was in the process of a huge race in the Gold Cup in 2006 when travelling with style before a mistake 3 out, it looked very good to be placed at least. It tried the GN that year and hated it in truth which is a concern but that was off a huge weight. In its last year for Nicholls it tailed off a bit but there was the odd decent run with a win at Cheltenham giving Parsons Legacy a stone and a decent effort in a traditional GN trial at Haydock. Since then it has raced in hunter chases for a new stable and the new lease of life might just be what it needs. As its style it has been second on both ocassions when travelling decently enough. Those efforts are not brilliant but they are a glimpse of some life and it stayed on both times, yesterday it gave a former festival winner nearly a stone if you include claim just to lose a half length. The foxhunters could be the next port of call but after that it is in the GN with 10-09 which is more a reflection of current form and more realistic. It may hate the track and the fences again but it is such a character it could be bothered to turn up this year as it is so unpredictable, it will be staying on, it can travel strongly and whilst it will be reluctant to win the race, it is the type I can see it running a decent race to place at a big price.

[WoodyTHFC]

Another one in there is Clopf who I backed earlier this year for the CH but looks Arkle bound now 16/1 var 12 pts e.w. This is one whos novice hurdle form has been boosted this year and it travels generally so well. Even in its attempts at the best hurdle races in Ireland this year have seen it often cruise only to quickly empty out but it was good win on its chase debut ahead of Quatre Heures when miles clear of the third. I expect it is well capable of cruising too this year but my scepticism would be that it empties out so quickly, even on chase debut that chances of it getting up the hill may be slim but still of interest in an open race. Basically runs tomorrow and form boost anticipated today with quatre Heures so taking price now.

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by mowgli77

I've had loads of ante post bets lately, most to small stakes but some decent prices:
Denis O Regan - Top Chelt Jockey 16.0
Robert Thornton - Top Chelt Jockey 9.0
Master Minded - QM Champion Chase 10.0
Albertas Run - Sun Alliance 28.0
Group Captain - Ballymore Prop Novice Hurdle 18.0
Numide - Supreme Nov Hurdle 13.5
Ebaziyan - Champion Hurdle 38.0
Leslingtaylor - Arkle 18.0

Also got Idle Talk - Grand National 80.0 and Dunbrody Millar 36.0 but before weights were announced so not sure of prices now

Also got my others for World Hurdle on Inglis Drever, Chief Dan George and Kasbah Bliss and got Franchoek for Triumph Hurdle.

Got Kasbah Bliss at 25.0 and quite impressed by that today. Albertas Run was class today as I expected and has to be reduced now for that race at Cheltenham.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by mowgli77

Got Kasbah Bliss at 25.0 and quite impressed by that today. Albertas Run was class today as I expected and has to be reduced now for that race at Cheltenham.

I had already backed it today then got a good word it had been well schooled, Ruby was supremely confident keeping it out the back all the race.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Interestingly though, trouble at bay got within 5L of it at Cheltenham back in November. Five Dream slammed that horse yesterday by nearly 30L! I cant see Five Dream entered up for the Champion Hurdle but wherever it goes it must be respected. Afsoun is still a lively outsider for me at a big price over the min distance. Catch me is another in that form line with Sizing Europe, Looking at its form:

Chelt March 07 - 3rd beaten 1.5L into 3rd by massinins Maguire & Tidal bay
Punch April 07 - Fell last when 1L adrift of winner Glencove marina
Fairy Dec 07 - Won by 13l to Big Zeb
Thurles Dec 07 - Beaten at odds of 2/11 when a mistake cost it its chance.

Seperated Sizing Europe & De valira in the race Woody refers to back in Dec 06 & ist the festival form that may put this one in with a chance at 66/1 Sportingbet, 33's elsewhere.

bollox, didnt see Catch me running today & it bloody won the Gr 2 hurdle at Gowran Park. This must be a serious EW contender after that run.

[tedthewolf]

My national bets so far are UNGARO 240 on befair and MONKEROSTIN 100/1 who was well backed last year.Would love to see Ungaro make it but has to run well at Kempton in the racing post on Sat and is 2nd fav for that at around 8/1 not a great price imo but goes well there as it is a right hand track where as Aintree is left but has run there there twice and at Cheltenham the up and downs did not suit there.Also unproven over what will be over 4 miles.All sounds pretty negative but this small horse has a big heart and wont go there unless the stable feel it can cope and do its self justice.They dont send a lot of horses to Liverpool or Cheltenham and win ratio is poor but i have always liked this horse so i have had a little nibble.

[leics poshie]

Originally Posted by danj2202

do not count your chickens there - Nevada Royale which I bet at the start of the month at 16/1 has halved in price and is likely to run at Doncaster on the 20th - if as I suspect Silverburn does not stay the trip then I expect Ruby to take the ride and if he wins on 20th he will probably start as fav - best price 9/1 with Coral right now

Nevada Royale, as low as 7-1 with some bookmakers, will not contest the Royal & SunAlliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The seven-year-old fell on his only start over fences in this country last December and trainer Paul Nicholls has decided not to continue over the bigger obstacles this term.
He told the Racing Post: "I have run out of time to get a prep run over fences into him before Cheltenham.
"Therefore he will run next over hurdles and we will keep him as a novice over fences for next season."

[leics poshie]

Originally Posted by bowles10

bollox, didnt see Catch me running today & it bloody won the Gr 2 hurdle at Gowran Park. This must be a serious EW contender after that run.

I agree, didnt see he was running and only saw the result, pissed off as i would have jumped on the 9/2 on offer

[danj2202]

Originally Posted by leics poshie

Nevada Royale, as low as 7-1 with some bookmakers, will not contest the Royal & SunAlliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The seven-year-old fell on his only start over fences in this country last December and trainer Paul Nicholls has decided not to continue over the bigger obstacles this term.
He told the Racing Post: "I have run out of time to get a prep run over fences into him before Cheltenham.
"Therefore he will run next over hurdles and we will keep him as a novice over fences for next season."

yes, saw that, sigh not happy

[gundasta]

gaspara is a lady horse...i think..i think she,s going for the female horse only race at cheltenham and she,ll prob win it...or am i thinking of another pipe fillie/mare.....

[danj2202]

Originally Posted by danj2202

Had a word that I am told is 100% reliable from a mate that The Nightingale is the horse to be on in the bumper at the festival has been shortened from 40/1 in to a best price of about 16/1 now, am told Nicholls thinks it is in with a very good chance and its one of the quickest in the yard - thought I would pass it on anyway

according to the post today this bloody thing aint running now too - nicholls does this to me EVERY time i back his ante post

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by danj2202

according to the post today this bloody thing aint running now too - nicholls does this to me EVERY time i back his ante post

Nicholls said he wanted to see if "good enough" before the last bumper and apperently the horse wasn't quite Cheltenham matirial so no surprise he is not running it.

[WoodyTHFC]

Grand National. All ready done 2 on small stakes but a more confident selection is Simon 18/1 Cor 12 pts e.w. Taking the price now ahead of a hopeful show in the Racing Post Chase tomorrow. Even if it did not perform, like so many GN hopefulls in recent weeks, I would not rule it out at all and indeed i do think it will be 18/1 or bigger on the day given that if it was soft it would be very popular and even on good it would hardly have no takers considering how well it ran last year. Simon was very progressive last season, it won the Sky Bet and the Racing Post Chase in decisive fashion on softer ground. It was perceived then it needed softer and no doubt it is effective in that ground but it can go on quicker too. It was running a blinder in last years National before Thornton falling off late on, in truth i think it may well have won. The two who did not complete last years GN but were running well at the time, I took out of the race for future years, were Bewleys Berry and Simon. This season it was sluggish on reappearance but can take a few runs to get going and ran well when doing good work at the finish behind Over the Creek at Chelt. when second in a good handicap. In better company it fell when travelling well in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham. Considering how the race unfolded that day, Our Vic not staying and Knowhere outstaying it, Simon I do believe would have been suited and may well have won but for the fall and its handicap rating exploded. However instead it is off 151 which I think looks fair, it looks progessive especially in comparison to others nearer the top of the weights and even though no horse with Simon's weight has won the GN since I was born, this one seems progressive enough and not terribly treated in comparison to what it could be especially without the UR or F, it has had the run last year and so many horses of late have come back to win the GN next year after a fall, ur in recent years, Hedgehunter, Silver Birch. It is adaptable in terms of ground and any sort of run tomorrow and it will be a lot less than 18/1.

[leics poshie]

WIll be jumping on Psycho @ 10/1 in the Coral cup as soon as i get paid, would have won with ease if not falling at the last fence in its last outing

[WoodyTHFC]

Originally Posted by WoodyTHFC

Grand National weights came out today and there were a few that caught the eye down the weights. Character Building at 10-05 especially if it it was not too quick, Philson Run at 10-05 who ran a fine race last year when fourth, Longshanks at 10-03 did not quite get home last year but looks lowly weighted although looks doubtful I would have thought to get in.

One that I think could get in at 10-06 is Comply or Die who is 40/1 but on the exhanges has been going on some big prices 370+, I settled for 150 for 5 pts and 20 to place 5 pts. Now whilst some other former RSAC seconds are more fancied for this race such as Snowy Morning and Idle Talk even, this one definitely boasts top form from his 2005 RSAC second when just beaten by Trabolgan. Earlier that season it was Grade 2 winner over fences. Over its hurdle days it was fourth behind Fundamentalist and Inglis Drever at the festival. After its RSAC second it was described as a horse who gallops forever so a race like the GN would seem a logical target in the future. At this stage it was 147 and showed good ground was seemingly ideal. After that it must be said it had disappointed generally, it produced the odd good run in a Hennessy but was pulled up in SGN and WGN. However it returned this season after a two year break and did take some going but lto it produced a brave front running performance on testing ground when just denied by Cloudy Lane who is much shorter for the GN, with the aid of first time blinkers. Now there is a four pounds swing with Cloudy lane so that is fair enough and it is rated offically now 139 which compares well to its old mark. It remains only 9 and reasonably lightly raced and that fact that it has been kept in training by David Johnson and Pipe suggests they think something of it. I see it is entered at a traditional GN trial at Haydock next week and certainly the prices on the exchanges seem big to me.

Happy with that win today and hopefully will go GN. Simon ran a decent staying on race today as well and even you could say Cornish Rebel form is boosted from Comply or Die from the RSAC and Hennessy although that form line may be vague now.

[mowgli77]

I thought Timmy Murphy gave your horse a great ride, I think he's a good judge of how to hold a horse up and deliver it late, knowing it will have plenty left in the tank. I have a lot of time for him as a jockey yet many others don't seem very keen on him.

[alexmac]

I thought Comply or Die's victory today gave a huge boost to the form of Cloudy Lane, and therefore I have backed him for the Grand national. Coral still go 12/1 Cloudy Lane, where some firms are as low as 8/1!!!

[AK1979]

One that I think could get in at 10-06 is Comply or Die who is 40/1 but on the exhanges has been going on some big prices 370+, I settled for 150 for 5 pts and 20 to place 5 pts

Great prices youve managed to get there - CoD trading at 24.0 now on betfair. The blinkers would concern me but looks to be coming into the race in good form anyway....

[AK1979]

I thought Comply or Die's victory today gave a huge boost to the form of Cloudy Lane, and therefore I have backed him for the Grand national. Coral still go 12/1 Cloudy Lane, where some firms are as low as 8/1!!!

I'm slightly concerned about this ones stamina - in both of his races over 3m 2f + he hasnt really shown up.

I'm preferring Parsons Legacy through his narrow defeat to Cloudy Lane at Cheltenham. He subsequently went on to finish 3rd in last years Scottish National, beaten only 1/1/2 lengths. Has some top class form in the book, versatile re: ground and has a great racing weight. Looks big at 32.0 bearing in mind Cloudy Lanes price.

Parsons Legacy @ 32.0 betfair

[AK1979]

McKelvey broke my heart last year - it would have been my biggest win ever but was just beaten into 2nd by Silver Birch.

I dont think i'll be betting him this year but for any McKelvey fans, here is his stablecam!

Madness

http://www.bbc.co.uk/theoneshow/arti...tablecam.shtml