Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

[AK1979]

I've just checked the betfair market and it seems I have also backed RAMBLING MINSTER @ 85.0 for the National, although I cant remember doing it

I've had a look at the form and it seems a decent bet at this stage, winning form over 4m, a good jumper and goes on the likely good ground that will be about in April. I really fancied this one at Cheltenham last year and promised myself to keep an eye on him after he had an unlucky run there - A current rating of 141 looks fair on what he's achieved. The only spanner in the works would be whether he lines up or not. Unlike Mon Mome, I cant find any indications from the stable that Rambling Minster will be ained at the National and he went for the Scottish equivalent last year. At a price of 85.0, ill take a risk.

[AK1979]

Supreme Novices Hurdle:

I’ve been looking at some of the markets for the forthcoming festival and have seen one I like in the Supreme Novices hurdle in THEATRE GIRL. Lets get the negative out of the way in that the current favourite, Khyber Kim, beat Theatre Girl last time out – but not by much, only a couple of lengths with the pair of them 24 lengths clear of the 3^rd After several good efforts in bumpers, most notably at Aintree, where the first 2 again pulled clear, she got her hurdling campaign off to a good start, winning in a good time at Wincanton.

Despite no form at Cheltenham as yet, she has hinted that the stiff finish will be up her street. Mares have a decent record in this race too, partly due to the 7lb weight allowance they receive, which will give her a 5lb pull over Khyber Kim from their running last time out. She is trading at 3 times the price of the favourite, which seems too big. Must have big each way claims.

Supreme Novices Hurdle: THEATRE GIRL each way @ 25/1 bet365

[AK1979]

R&SA Novices Chase:

One that caught the eye prior to Christmas was GOLD MEDALLIST on his chasing debut and his first run for 3 years after injury. This one was favourite for the R&SA Novices hurdle in 2005 so was obviously held in high regard and was only beaten 3 ½ lengths in that.

Finishing runner up to Tidal Bay on his reappearance was a massive run, not only because the winner looks a serious horse (he is favourite for both this race and the Arkle) but also because he was only beaten 2 lengths. There’s little doubt that Tidal Bay had a fitness advantage and Gold Medallist is entitled to come on for that run. Tidal Bays connections are hinting that he will be dropped back in trip to tackle the Arkle, which would make Gold Medallists chance even more interesting.


R&SA Novices Chase: GOLD MEDALLIST each way @ 20/1 bet365

[bowles10]

Nice posts there AK

I had a look at the times of the Supreme Novices hurdle & the champion hurdle over last 6 years.

2007 Ebaziyan 3m 56.1s Sublimity 3m 55.7s Soft
2006 Noland 3m 54.5s Brave Inca 3m 50.0 s G/Soft
2005 Arcalis 3m 53.0s Hardy Eustace 3m 51.5s Good
2004 Brave Inca 3m 55.6s Hardy Eustace 3m 54.5s Good
2003 Back in Front 3m 56.8s Rooster Booster 3m 54.7s Good
2002 Like a Butterfly 3m 54.7s Hors La Roi 3m 53.8s G/soft


Ebaziyan's time ranks 5 out of 6 but its was on the worst ground. Therefore I assume it would rank as one of the better times. Comparisons with the Champion hurdle times show that Hardy Eustace & Brave Inca victories were in a strong run race hence the faster times. Last years victory was the slowest of these 6 years but again was run a soft surface. However, if you compare the differences between the 2 races, Ebaziyans is the closest to the Champion Hurdle time in same year at only 0.4s slower.

[WoodyTHFC]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Nice posts there AK

I had a look at the times of the Supreme Novices hurdle & the champion hurdle over last 6 years.

2007 Ebaziyan 3m 56.1s Sublimity 3m 55.7s Soft
2006 Noland 3m 54.5s Brave Inca 3m 50.0 s G/Soft
2005 Arcalis 3m 53.0s Hardy Eustace 3m 51.5s Good
2004 Brave Inca 3m 55.6s Hardy Eustace 3m 54.5s Good
2003 Back in Front 3m 56.8s Rooster Booster 3m 54.7s Good
2002 Like a Butterfly 3m 54.7s Hors La Roi 3m 53.8s G/soft


Ebaziyan's time ranks 5 out of 6 but its was on the worst ground. Therefore I assume it would rank as one of the better times. Comparisons with the Champion hurdle times show that Hardy Eustace & Brave Inca victories were in a strong run race hence the faster times. Last years victory was the slowest of these 6 years but again was run a soft surface. However, if you compare the differences between the 2 races, Ebaziyans is the closest to the Champion Hurdle time in same year at only 0.4s slower.

I made this point a few posts ago that the comparison between the times of the 2007 CH and Supreme Novices compares favourably to the Supreme Novice race and not so favourably to the CH of 2007 and you highlight this here with the actual figures. An explaination of this could be that with a small field the 2007 CH there was not much of a strong gallop but I am not so sure. Certainly the way I recall the race was that from about half way out Brave Inca, Hardy eustace were at each others throats and the way these two normally brave finishers of a race, were almost legless at the end, especially Hardy Eustace suggests to me that there was a strong enough gallop. For me this just shows further evidence that the CH was not that strong last year, in fact I would say weak, how it fell into Sublimity's hands and that the Supreme Novice was a fairly decent race last year. Ebazyian's form this season does not justify a CH winner tag at the moment but as the trainer has said, in England, off a fairly strong pace and reasonable ground (won on soft last year although realistically it was not) it is not out of the equation. The problem is there are a good 20ish I reckon who are possible winners to imo.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by WoodyTHFC

I made this point a few posts ago that the comparison between the times of the 2007 CH and Supreme Novices compares favourably to the Supreme Novice race and not so favourably to the CH of 2007 and you highlight this here with the actual figures. An explaination of this could be that with a small field the 2007 CH there was not much of a strong gallop but I am not so sure. Certainly the way I recall the race was that from about half way out Brave Inca, Hardy eustace were at each others throats and the way these two normally brave finishers of a race, were almost legless at the end, especially Hardy Eustace suggests to me that there was a strong enough gallop. For me this just shows further evidence that the CH was not that strong last year, in fact I would say weak, how it fell into Sublimity's hands and that the Supreme Novice was a fairly decent race last year. Ebazyian's form this season does not justify a CH winner tag at the moment but as the trainer has said, in England, off a fairly strong pace and reasonable ground (won on soft last year although realistically it was not) it is not out of the equation. The problem is there are a good 20ish I reckon who are possible winners to imo.

Yep, cheers Woody, it was actually your point i picked up on about the times & hence why i looked at them over a number of years. My dad is very keen on the horse & i was doing this for him to back up his argument. The horse only has form Jan/Feb & March so ignore anything previous. We should be able to tell from the irish champion hurdle on 27th Jan where it will face the best of these albeit i think Cheltenham brought out the best in this horse last year, so as long as its in the 1st 5 i will be happy.

These are the key trends i did for the Cheltenham race:

Key trends (updated with Sublimity's win from last year)

10/11 won last time out with the other finishing 2nd
9/11 won a graded race LTO (5 @ Gr1, 3 @ Gr2 & 1@ Gr3)
11/11 ran LTO in Jan or Feb
4/11 won AIG champion hurdle in Ireland before the festival
9/11 had 4 or more runs in the season
7/11 came into the race seeking a hat trick
10/11 had previous festival form
8/11 had won at a previous festival
10/11 were aged 6 to 8
9/11 were priced 10/1 or lower
0/11 were 5yo
7/11 were irish trained
5/11 were favs

so the winner will be a horse that won LTO, is aged 6-8, ran LTO in Jan/Feb, had previous festival form, & had 4 or more ruins in the season!

[alexmac]

I see Pricewise has tipped up Snowy Morning at 50/1 for the Gold Cup. That was on Monday, now he is just 25/1 in places.... It is amazing how much influence he has, especially considering he has not been in that great form this season...

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by alexmac

I see Pricewise has tipped up Snowy Morning at 50/1 for the Gold Cup. That was on Monday, now he is just 25/1 in places.... It is amazing how much influence he has, especially considering he has not been in that great form this season...

That's exactly what I was thinking. I think he does quite well on the flat but not great over jumps and is a bit overrated for the influence he has. It means you could lay it off at a lower price though if you ever manage to get the odds he suggests.

[alexmac]

Nearly impossible to get those odds though, as soon as the bookies read his tips they start slashing odds.

Personally, I don't think Snowy Morning has a chance in hell of winning the Gold Cup. Saw him at Newbury in the Hennessey and was VERY easily beaten. I know he has gone back to Ireland and won a couple of races since, but he is in a different league to the Nicholls pair and Exotic Dancer...

[bowles10]

This could be interesting.

Taken from The Guardian & the much respected Ron Cox.

Betting on next month's Totesport Trophy Hurdle at Newbury has yet to take off but, after the publication of the weights yesterday, stand by for a run on Jack The Giant at 8-1. He has been confirmed a definite starter by his trainer, Nicky Henderson, who has won this valuable handicap four times since 1998.
Jack The Giant, set to carry 10st10lb, has won all three starts this season and the handicapper is still playing catch-up so far as his hurdles rating is concerned. He is up 12lb from the mark off which he won The Ladbroke, but Jack The Giant is still 12lb under his chase rating and proved his wellbeing by winning a good race over fences at Leicester last week.

[mileni4uk]

Any idea where Tamarinbleu will go? Queen Mother or Ryanair? Did David Pipe give an interview? Will appreciate the info!

[Gingertipster]

Don't really think he gave an answer Mileni, bookmakers have slashed his price for the Champion Chase though. One going as low as 5/1, with over double that available. But I doubt if he will have the pace unless it comes up soft (unlikely) anyway. If he were mine I'd wait and see what the ground is like before committing to one or the other.
If you want to see how likely he is to go for the race, take a look at the betfair prices for the two races. If they are a lot different to the bookmakers prices I would hold back on any ante-post bets Mileni.

Ginge

[mileni4uk]

The thing is he is as low as 6/1 for the Ryanair, but Centrebet have it at 14/1. They are US bookie I think and probably slow to react. That's why I am wondering if it's worth taking it.

[tedthewolf]

NOLAND very impressive today i believe.Bring on the Arkle!

Will be hard to beat imo.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by tedthewolf

NOLAND very impressive today i believe.Bring on the Arkle!

Will be hard to beat imo.

Owner doesn't want to run it at the festival, mate

[tedthewolf]

Noland set for Arkle bid
after impressive victory


by Bruce Jackson
.

NOLAND returned from a year off to push the door back open to an Arkle Trophy challenge with an impressive first effort over fences at Folkestone on Monday.

There had been disagreement between trainer Paul Nicholls and owner John Hales over a possible Cheltenham tilt for the seven-year-old, winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the 2006 festival, before his chasing debut.

However, all that seemed to be water under the bridge after he jumped to victory in the beginners' chase at a rainlashed and windswept Kent track under Ruby Walsh, for whom he was the only ride of the day.

Bookmakers, perhaps cautious after Monday's Racing Post front-page story, did not go overboard afterwards, although he was promoted to Arkle joint-second favourite behind Tidal Bay in some places.

Blue Square, Coral and Ladbrokes were notable in going 10-1 while Hills, Totesport and Paddy Power went 8-1.

Try as Manhattan Boy and Polinamix might to get Noland to stretch through the 2m contest, the dual Grade 1 hurdle winner had too much class for his rivals and sauntered clear at the end of the back straight before running lazily to allow Polinamix to chase him home at a respectable distance of nine lengths.
And the Irish Independent-sponsored Arkle seemed back on the agenda, although there were whispers that his other entry in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase could come under some consideration.

Nicholls, speaking from his stables, said: "Looking at that, I don't need to go much furtherwith him.

“He did that quite nicely - he just needs some experience. There are no big races for him to go in now but in ten days' time he ought to be able to go and have another race like that somewhere.

"I have got to build on his experience. He jumped how he had been jumping at home, which is really pleasing. Whatever has been said he will definitely have an entry in the Arkle. John hasn't ruled it out at all.

"Quite rightly he was concerned after what happened to Granit Jack and Noland not having had much experience. If we can get experience into him John is certainly not ruling it out."

Assistant Dan Skelton, coming off the phone to an ecstatic Hales who had watched the race in a Bridgetown bookies in Barbados, echoed the trainer's thoughts and mentioned the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick on February 9 as a potential target.

Walsh was delighted with Noland's display, particularly pleased with the novice's handling of the second-last when not on a stride.

"He was really clever at the second-last and jumped well. He wasn't doing much in front, ears pricked, on that heavy ground. He was deadly."

[mileni4uk]

A ROW was on Sunday night brewing between the connections of leading Arkle fancy Noland as champion trainer Paul Nicholls was left stunned by the news that owner John Hales does not want to run him at the Cheltenham Festival. Hales on Sunday told the Racing Post that whatever happens, the 2006 Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner will not head for the Irish Independent sponsored chase ? for which he is prominent in the ante-post market at around the 12-1 mark ? or indeed any race at the festival.

[mowgli77]

I have a feeling The Rat may regret transferring Noland out but time will tell.

I wrote that in the PL 10 to follow after the recent update.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by mowgli77

I wrote that in the PL 10 to follow after the recent update.

Oooops, very unlucky there Ratty