Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

[mileni4uk]

Ruby decides whether Denman or Kauto Star. I wonder who'll get the other ride

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

ok have been waiting for an opportune moment to start a few more ante post cheltenham bets. Always a good time to try to pick up some decent prices (those who found Sublimity at 450/1 last year will know!)

I have what i feel is a decent yankee to keep backing each week to make a nice bet.

Voy per Ustedes (to win the QM for 2nd year) 9/2
Katchit (to win the Champion Hurdle) 7/1
Franchoek (to win the Triumph hurdle) 8/1
Denman (to win the Gold Cup) 5/1

3 of those are Alan Kings but all 3 are wirth their place & the important thing for me is they are all course winners & fit the profile for the race.

Denman must win the Henessey if he is to be as good as Kauto star was last season. I think the horse could be another star for Nicholls & Ruby will find it hard trying to pick. The strange thing is that Ruby wont be riding either on their next run due to his injury. This is my next ante post bet.

Denman to win the Hennessey @ 5/1 (dec 1st)

Onto the festival itself, I have a couple of long range bets that i will follow:

Noble Request 44.0 Arkle Chase
State of Play 120.0 Gold Cup
Desert Quest 130.0 Champion Hurdle
Labelthou 80.0 Sun Alliance Chase

Each horse above represents decent value on my book & these will be followed through the season.

ok, so the price drifted back to 5/1 from 7/2 yesterday but what a horse & for the 2nd year running i find the Hennessy winner ante post

[WoodyTHFC]

Macs Joy @ 25/1 e.w for CH. Looking back at the post I suggested it was a weak division and I believe further in that now so if and it is a big if, Macs Joy recreates its second to Brave Inca in 2006 I think it goes extremely close and probably wins. Obviously it does not work like that but even still a price is being offered. It actually is running over further today but I do not think that this is meaning it is moving up further in trip by Cheltenham as Hardy Eustace say is. Hoping for a decent run today.

[bowles10]

2 big races at Cheltenham coming up this Saturday.

Boylesports international Hurdle & Boylesports Gold Cup

Leading players are

Hurdle
Sublimity, Katchit, Macs joy, Afsoun, Jazz messenger

Gold cup
New Little Bric, Abragante, Il duce, Palarshan, Knowhere etc

Will be looking closely at the trends for these but i wouldnt back Abragante in a month of sundays, i dont think the horse is genuine & i would rather back something i know will give a good account. Nicholls has the likely fav New Little Bric which looks on a handy weight for this.

Katchit is unbeaten at Cheltenham so will need to be at its best to beat those older horses up the famous hill especailly against the Champion Hurdle winner sublimity.

[Woodie]

Just been looking over the Welsh National for some time and after narrowing it down to just the six runners I have come up with two which I'm backing the current favourite Miko De Beauchene and Geeveem @ 11/2 and 20/1 both have a very nice weight, fit all the trends and both have had this race mapped out for sometime. both have had recent prep runs running very well. Both stay well and both should have there ideal ground the more rain the better for Geeveem.

1pt Miko De Beauchene @ 11/2 boylesports
1pt e/w Geeveem @ 20/1 corals

[bowles10]

There is a horse running at Exeter tomorrow called Master Minded. You wont know the horse as its a french import into Nicholls stable & owned by the now legendary Clive Smith (Kauto Star). The race only has 4 runners & i am sure it will start very short.

They think this one could go to the very top & at 4yo could even enter the QM chase at Cheltenham (i took 80.0 last night). This is good information from the people that own the horse, however to win a race of that magnitude would take some doing for a horse not seen on a British racecourse yet.

for a sound debut tomorrow, but this could be worth following for a few seasons to come especially after the owners success with Kauto star.

[WoodyTHFC]

Ante Post Royal and Sun Alliance Chase

Mark the Book @ 33/1Really looking forward to this one's chasing debut and I gave it serious thought for the TTTF and it could well be a future star for Hobbs. Ran second on hurdle debut but then put up two very impressive wins before blowing out having travelled at short odds on its start. Possibly it was just put out too soon that time having won earlier in the month. Taking a chance on ho wit will jump but Hobbs' are not normally sloppy and trip no real problem. Speculating but if all goes well it could be a real contender for Cheltenham in maybe the RSA 33/1, not sure they will go Arkle. So will have 7.5 pts e.w @ 33/1 ahead of its start today, a gamble but worth it for a smallish stake at those odds. Tidal Bay who is in my TTTF, is a market leader but it is still not certain as if it will go RSA or Arkle.

[Woodie]

Originally Posted by Woodie

Just been looking over the Welsh National for some time and after narrowing it down to just the six runners I have come up with two which I'm backing the current favourite Miko De Beauchene and Geeveem @ 11/2 and 20/1 both have a very nice weight, fit all the trends and both have had this race mapped out for sometime. both have had recent prep runs running very well. Both stay well and both should have there ideal ground the more rain the better for Geeveem.

1pt Miko De Beauchene @ 11/2 boylesports
1pt e/w Geeveem @ 20/1 corals

Miko returned @ 13/2 but well happy managed the winner especially with my record in the big handicaps

[RussP]

Wins Now makes it seasonal reappearance tomorrow in a very hot beginners chase. I really like this horse who ran well at both Cheltenham and Aintree over hurdles. Should be better suited to fences and I'm on at 20/1 with Coral for the Arkle. Tomorrows race is a tough one, facing Nicanor, the horse having the distinction of being the only one to have beat Denman.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by Woodie

Miko returned @ 13/2 but well happy managed the winner especially with my record in the big handicaps

nice one Jon beat mine in a great finish

[jcosgrove]

Antepost - Champion Hurdle

Aitmatov 30/1 betfair

I think this horse looks real quality, the race he won at fairyhouse is looking as though it could be good form with Sweet Kiln & Glencove Marina in behind.
On paper he has beaten Sizing Europe but SE was very unlucky when travelling like the winner. With this being such an open market, I think this is a great price.

[bowles10]

just sticking one in here for my old man who comes up with a few for Cheltenham using his methods. He thinks like the rest of us that the Champion hurdle is wide open this year & that EBAZIYAN could be the one to come good on the day.

I have looked at its form & conclude:

Hurdles career is 2/24, 1/18, 1/22, 8/9, 4/7, 5/7, 3/8, 4/6

Interestingly its form in small fields isnt as good as that in a larger field. It won at Cheltenham festival last season beating GRanit Jack & Amaretto Rose in the Supreme Novices hurdle. Any hurdle win at the track in previous year is a pointer to at least a place at the following festival so certainly 33/1 currently looks decent for an ew bet. I was not put off by its 4th place in the hurdle race last week in Ireland as they always seem to race up each other's backsides in Ireland & i find the horses that act at Cheltenham will do so again irrespective of how it ran earlier in the season.

[WoodyTHFC]

Originally Posted by bowles10

just sticking one in here for my old man who comes up with a few for Cheltenham using his methods. He thinks like the rest of us that the Champion hurdle is wide open this year & that EBAZIYAN could be the one to come good on the day.

I have looked at its form & conclude:

Hurdles career is 2/24, 1/18, 1/22, 8/9, 4/7, 5/7, 3/8, 4/6

Interestingly its form in small fields isnt as good as that in a larger field. It won at Cheltenham festival last season beating GRanit Jack & Amaretto Rose in the Supreme Novices hurdle. Any hurdle win at the track in previous year is a pointer to at least a place at the following festival so certainly 33/1 currently looks decent for an ew bet. I was not put off by its 4th place in the hurdle race last week in Ireland as they always seem to race up each other's backsides in Ireland & i find the horses that act at Cheltenham will do so again irrespective of how it ran earlier in the season.

Another intersting point about that Supreme Novice win last year from Ebazyian is that the time of that race is very favourable with the Champion Hurdle itself that day and only fractionally outside the actual Champion Hurdle time. I do not think there was a lack of pace in the Champion hurdle either. I certainly recall that Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca were at each other throats from about half way and the fact both of them were pretty legless especially Hardy Eustace suggests a strong gallop. So I think that run by Ebazyian as a novice remember has to put it in with a real Champion Hurdle chance in such a weak race this year imo, it may have even done last year

The other one from that Supreme Novice race that may interest me when I see it is De Valira. It finished down midfield that day but it travelled well enough for a long time before a mistake and going into that race the trainer was in terrible form and he has admitted that later so whilst that run may not have been brilliant there are excuses. The form around that run is pretty decent as well. It has beaten the likes of Catch Me and Sizing Europe who is about third or fourth fav for the CH. One to watch if it comes out.

[bowles10]

There are only about 9 weeks to Cheltenham. I have published my horses in my thread today (there will be more but these are the ones i have backed so far this year).

I am now looking at backing the following in these races, wherever Tidal Bay runs it will start favourite so just thinking of getting some value now:

Arkle
Tidal Bay 8/1
awaiting plans for Hobbs Hill, Lead on & Skys the limit

Champion Hurdle
Katchit 10/1
Ebaziyan 33/1

R&SA chase
Lead on 25/1
Tidal Bay 10/1

World Hurdle
Wichita Lineman 6/1 (on target for race this year)

Triumph Hurdle
Franchoek 6/1 (already backed & advised 9/1)

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

There is a horse running at Exeter tomorrow called Master Minded. You wont know the horse as its a french import into Nicholls stable & owned by the now legendary Clive Smith (Kauto Star). The race only has 4 runners & i am sure it will start very short.

They think this one could go to the very top & at 4yo could even enter the QM chase at Cheltenham (i took 80.0 last night). This is good information from the people that own the horse, however to win a race of that magnitude would take some doing for a horse not seen on a British racecourse yet.

for a sound debut tomorrow, but this could be worth following for a few seasons to come especially after the owners success with Kauto star.

runs again tomorrow at sandown. hope it will jump better tomorrow & show what it can do

[Woodie]

Originally Posted by bowles10

There are only about 9 weeks to Cheltenham. I have published my horses in my thread today (there will be more but these are the ones i have backed so far this year).

I am now looking at backing the following in these races, wherever Tidal Bay runs it will start favourite so just thinking of getting some value now:

Arkle
Tidal Bay 8/1
awaiting plans for Hobbs Hill, Lead on & Skys the limit

Champion Hurdle
Katchit 10/1
Ebaziyan 33/1

R&SA chase
Lead on 25/1
Tidal Bay 10/1

World Hurdle
Wichita Lineman 6/1 (on target for race this year)

Triumph Hurdle
Franchoek 6/1 (already backed & advised 9/1)

Some good looking bets there mate, I really like the look of Wichita Lineman at 6/1 he'd had an ideal prep this season and to me looks a banker so I'll will be helping myself to the 6/1 aswell

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

There is a horse running at Exeter tomorrow called Master Minded. You wont know the horse as its a french import into Nicholls stable & owned by the now legendary Clive Smith (Kauto Star). The race only has 4 runners & i am sure it will start very short.

They think this one could go to the very top & at 4yo could even enter the QM chase at Cheltenham (i took 80.0 last night). This is good information from the people that own the horse, however to win a race of that magnitude would take some doing for a horse not seen on a British racecourse yet.

for a sound debut tomorrow, but this could be worth following for a few seasons to come especially after the owners success with Kauto star.

Master Minded wins yesterday (3/1 available early) & is now on course for Cheltenham. I did take the 80.0 available on the champion chase but i think it will prob go for the Ryainair chase instead. I didnt see yesterdays race but will take a look at it today sometime.

[bowles10]

From my jumps thread, this is where i stand currently on Cheltenham. I will no doubt add some horses along the way.

Horse Name	Race	Best Price	Bookie	Price taken
Ashley Brook	Champion Chase	37.0	Betfair
Tidal Bay	Arkle Chase / R&SA Chase	9.00 / 11.00	Hills / Tote
State of Play	Gold Cup	67.00	Tote	120.00
Snap Tie	Ballymore Nov Hdle	26.00	Tote
Franchoek	Triumph Hurdle	7.00	Ladbrokes	9.00
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