Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

[Woodie]

You mean the Betfair chase? they will proberly open another market for the race shortly as that current one was an antepost one

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by Gingertipster

I think, reading between the lines, if ED does not get close to KS in the Betfair then ED will not be at Kempton on Boxing day. The price takes this into account.

What about MWDS Mr. Bowles, won't he have a say in the Gold Cup?

The price you are taking is a tad worse than 10/11 about the three. Do you want to take odds on this far off? If you think you have a beter than 53% chance then go for it.

i personally dont think MWDS will tackle the gold cup. Last season it had its ground in favour especially coming up soft at Cheltenham. I think MWDS will be a major challenger in 2009 for the big one and will take in one of the other races at Cheltenham. I may be wrong !

Its very early to be tipping up horses for Cheltenham but i try to use this thread as a diary as i gather information about the greatest week on earth.

[mowgli77]

I agree Bowles, really like MWDS but i'm a bit hesitant to back it at the weekend when its unproven over the trip over fences. King says its best trip is about 2m4f - 2m6f and i'd agree, surprised they dropped it to 2m last year. It loves soft ground and I've watched it slice through heavy too. I don't think it will run in the Gold Cup this year.

You mean the Betfair chase? they will proberly open another market for the race shortly as that current one was an antepost one

Yes, was not sure when it swapped from ante post as it was in the ante post section that I found it. Currently liking the look of that Offshore Account but will need to look into the race a bit more first. Certainly knows how to win and is going the right way, what sort of price are we looking at?

[stewartd14]

Yes, was not sure when it swapped from ante post as it was in the ante post section that I found it. Currently liking the look of that Offshore Account but will need to look into the race a bit more first. Certainly knows how to win and is going the right way, what sort of price are we looking at?

From Sporting Life

Betting Forecast: Evs Kauto Star (FR), 11/4 My Way de Solzen (FR), 6/1 Exotic Dancer (FR), 10/1 Turpin Green (IRE), 16/1 Beef Or Salmon (IRE), 20/1 Ollie Magern, 33/1 Offshore Account (IRE)

Looks an interesting race, and a huge price for Offshore Account mowgli. I think I need to have a proper look at the race first, MYDS looks short at 11/4 for first time out. Ollie Magern might even be worth a wee punt at a big price, pity there is only 7 runners though, spoils it a wee bit.

[Gingertipster]

Hate to disagree about MWDS going requirements. But although we often here from his trainer that MWDS liking soft ground, his best two performances have been on good.
World hurdle Good.
Arkle maybe officially on the soft side but if you compare times with other years (including other races). Times indicated the going was in fact good from the start of the meeting.
That is not to say he does not act on soft too (probably a coincidence). Do agree that MWDS is a no no for Cheltenham ante-post punters. He could go for any one of three at this stage.

[Woodie]

Interesting you like Offshore Account personally I couldn't have him at all. I can't actually get over the price of kauto Star tomorrow just above even money on betfair. I'm thinking of having a good bet on him. He had to give a stone away last month he'll be spot on for this today. He stays. Ground OK. Racing of level weights. Has beaten 4 of the 6 rivals already a good few times. Offshore account looks like he needs to produce a career best just to even place. That leaves only MWD who does stay the trip but the past 2 seasons has needed the run first time out and is rated 20 pounds lower than Kauto Star. Even money for Kauto tomorrow looks a very good bet to me.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Yea .. 3m .. I think Exptic Dancer is worth 12/1 for the King George. My only concern is that owner and trainer may onde day decide to start winning some races and just avoid Kauto Star. But if I was owner I would have been trying to beat KS everytime I can, because it is all about that.

12/1 looks huge now, doesn't it?

[Woodie]

Hennessey
Denman has a big ask at the weights to win this first time out he has to give a stone and 4lbs to Snowy Morning who won well first time out last season and was 2nd behind denman at the festival he was badley hampered in that race and surely would of finished nearer to Denman that day if he didn't meet any problems in running. Looks like he stays the distance gets 3 miles fine. Should gave his ground come saturday and looks fairly treated off 143. Could upset Denman.

Snowy Morning @ 9/1 coral

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by Woodie

Hennessey
Denman has a big ask at the weights to win this first time out he has to give a stone and 4lbs to Snowy Morning who won well first time out last season and was 2nd behind denman at the festival he was badley hampered in that race and surely would of finished nearer to Denman that day if he didn't meet any problems in running. Looks like he stays the distance gets 3 miles fine. Should gave his ground come saturday and looks fairly treated off 143. Could upset Denman.

Snowy Morning @ 9/1 coral

Got the weekender last week and liked the write up for Snowy Morning so got on it last week and a few quid also on Abragante. only one I left alone was New Alco that Nick Mordin tipped up and it's been slashed already. Denman is a classy horse but will need to be to give so much weight away.

Just been looking at prices for the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, it says on RP site that Inglis Drever is 15-8 fav ahead of Black Jack Ketchum with Chief Dan George at 10-1. I've got both Inglis Drever and Chief Dan George in my 10 to follow, really rate them both and I think 10-1 is massive for CDG. There are no odds on Betfair yet for this race, anyone got any idea when they will be up. Might be worth an ante post bet on CDG for Cheltenham too, if it wins Saturday its odds will halve.
I put CDG up here at 33-1 last year at Aintree, came home from work sick that lunchtime and soon perked up when it flew in from nowhere. Lets' hope it can go on and have another good season.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by Woodie

Hennessey
Denman has a big ask at the weights to win this first time out he has to give a stone and 4lbs to Snowy Morning who won well first time out last season and was 2nd behind denman at the festival he was badley hampered in that race and surely would of finished nearer to Denman that day if he didn't meet any problems in running. Looks like he stays the distance gets 3 miles fine. Should gave his ground come saturday and looks fairly treated off 143. Could upset Denman.

Snowy Morning @ 9/1 coral

I backed it at Cheltenham when it ran behind Denman, it just looked a bit one paced to me but the ground that day was very soft.

I'll be relying on the trends for this race to find the winner but i have already backed Denman @ 5's as previously advised.

[Woodie]

Originally Posted by mowgli77

Just been looking at prices for the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, it says on RP site that Inglis Drever is 15-8 fav ahead of Black Jack Ketchum with Chief Dan George at 10-1. I've got both Inglis Drever and Chief Dan George in my 10 to follow, really rate them both and I think 10-1 is massive for CDG. There are no odds on Betfair yet for this race, anyone got any idea when they will be up. Might be worth an ante post bet on CDG for Cheltenham too, if it wins Saturday its odds will halve.
I put CDG up here at 33-1 last year at Aintree, came home from work sick that lunchtime and soon perked up when it flew in from nowhere. Lets' hope it can go on and have another good season.

They've put the market up just now I see. Nothings been matched but that market should be more alive by tonight so interesting to see how they bet.

[mowgli77]

Had a bet on the World Hurdle, took 7's on Inglis Drever and 20's on Chief Dan George, will have a look at that Newbury race now and se what price I can get.

[alexmac]

Hennessy

I like Abragante for this. Denman is, for sure, n awesome horse - but I think carrying top weight around a challenging track like Newbury may be too much for his first run out this season. He is notoriously hard to get fit, and although he pleased connections with his workout at Exeter I think he will be turned over. At 7/2 he is far too short to touch IMO. Abragante on the other hand has a number of positives. He has had a recent run out, and although he has been raised a stone for that win, he still races well below his hurdles mark (9lbs). Although it is unsure who will take the ride as Timmy Murphy is suspended. I can see Abragante taking this. Stats back this up: Top 2 in the betting have provided 9/15 winners - Abragante is the 6/1ish second favourite behind Denman.

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by Woodie

They've put the market up just now I see. Nothings been matched but that market should be more alive by tonight so interesting to see how they bet.

Took 10.0 on Betfair for Chief Dan George for Saturday (£25 stake), hope it runs now or it's money down the drain, trainer reckons it will definitely run. A very underrated horse i feel.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by alexmac

Hennessy

I like Abragante for this. Denman is, for sure, n awesome horse - but I think carrying top weight around a challenging track like Newbury may be too much for his first run out this season. He is notoriously hard to get fit, and although he pleased connections with his workout at Exeter I think he will be turned over. At 7/2 he is far too short to touch IMO. Abragante on the other hand has a number of positives. He has had a recent run out, and although he has been raised a stone for that win, he still races well below his hurdles mark (9lbs). Although it is unsure who will take the ride as Timmy Murphy is suspended. I can see Abragante taking this. Stats back this up: Top 2 in the betting have provided 9/15 winners - Abragante is the 6/1ish second favourite behind Denman.

Davy Russell is booked now for Abragante Alex.

Only ever ridden once for the stable.

[Woodie]

What's everyones thoughts on the fighting fifth? I'm considering laying Katchit although I have him in my 10 to follow this is the first time he is taking on older horses and if they all line up it looks a decent field he's trading just above 6/4 at the mo which is very short imo. He beat Degas Art lto but he was beaten out of sight at the weekend by Pigeon Island who also looks like turning up to this.
Any thoughts?

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by Woodie

What's everyones thoughts on the fighting fifth? I'm considering laying Katchit although I have him in my 10 to follow this is the first time he is taking on older horses and if they all line up it looks a decent field he's trading just above 6/4 at the mo which is very short imo. He beat Degas Art lto but he was beaten out of sight at the weekend by Pigeon Island who also looks like turning up to this.
Any thoughts?

massive trend here on the favs - 8 of last 10 have won.

4 of last 5 have gone to 5yo's & NONE are running!!

No 4yo in last 10 years has won but not sure how many have tried.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

3 novice hurdlers caught my eye recently for the notebook

Cant Buy time - Jonjo O'Neill (4th yesterday, given relatively easy ride will be better suited nearer the pace on a tighter track)

Shore thing - C Egerton (2nd on debut, looked to be the winner but overtaken near the line, jockey hands & heels on 1st run, will come on for the experience)

Both of these run today in their novice hurdles

1.00 Uttox Cant buy time

12.40 Taunton Shore thing

I expect both to come on from thier last outing.

[Jonesy Knows]

One that I've been waiting for goes on Sunday for Paul Nicholls
Big Buck's 1.00 Newbury Beginner's Chase

He gave this horse a very favourable mention on the At The Races Paul Nicholls Stable Tour back in September as one to look out for!
Nicholls has a similar type run in this race last year called O'Malley which finished 3rd and the year before he won this race with Cornish Set.
He has had this race mapped out for Big Buck's for sometime now and I'm hoping there aren't many withdrawals from the declared runners as I think he may go off at decent odds!

[WoodyTHFC]

I am taking a bit of a gamble and going for the pretty unexposed Clopf @ 25/1 e.w for the Champion Hurdle. I mentioned it earlier in the thread and it runs in the fighting fifth tomorrow. It might not win but any sort of a decent run and given a couple of preps it should be spot on, it will probably lower in price and the way it travels it might have a chance tomorrow and come March.