Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

3 novice hurdlers caught my eye recently for the notebook

Cant Buy time - Jonjo O'Neill (4th yesterday, given relatively easy ride will be better suited nearer the pace on a tighter track)

Chrysander - E Williams (3rd on debut, not knocked about once surrendered lead to the winner 2 out)

Shore thing - C Egerton (2nd on debut, looked to be the winner but overtaken near the line, jockey hands & heels on 1st run, will come on for the experience)

Chrysander won today at odds of 8/11

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1			Chrysander	10-12	Paul Moloney	Evan Williams	5	8/11 f
			made all, soon clear, quickened up 3 out, ran on touched 5/6 £400-£440 £300-£330 £500-£600 (x2) £800-£1000 (x2) £400-£500 (x10)

[mileni4uk]

A very very easy winner, mate! I remember you putting it here and was about to back it, because I liked its chances today, but didn't .. price was too short for me. A winner is a winner though and won very easily too

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

my 1st long range bets for Cheltenham are:

Champion Chase

Dont Push it 33/1 Bet365
Granit Jack 40/1 Bet365

reasons to follow over the next few days but these 2 will be followed by me during the season.

how things can change so quickly

[bowles10]

ok have been waiting for an opportune moment to start a few more ante post cheltenham bets. Always a good time to try to pick up some decent prices (those who found Sublimity at 450/1 last year will know!)

I have what i feel is a decent yankee to keep backing each week to make a nice bet.

Voy per Ustedes (to win the QM for 2nd year) 9/2
Katchit (to win the Champion Hurdle) 7/1
Franchoek (to win the Triumph hurdle) 8/1
Denman (to win the Gold Cup) 5/1

3 of those are Alan Kings but all 3 are wirth their place & the important thing for me is they are all course winners & fit the profile for the race.

Denman must win the Henessey if he is to be as good as Kauto star was last season. I think the horse could be another star for Nicholls & Ruby will find it hard trying to pick. The strange thing is that Ruby wont be riding either on their next run due to his injury. This is my next ante post bet.

Denman to win the Hennessey @ 5/1 (dec 1st)

Onto the festival itself, I have a couple of long range bets that i will follow:

Noble Request 44.0 Arkle Chase
State of Play 120.0 Gold Cup
Desert Quest 130.0 Champion Hurdle
Labelthou 80.0 Sun Alliance Chase

Each horse above represents decent value on my book & these will be followed through the season.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Denman to win the Hennessey @ 5/1 (dec 1st)

I'm sorry for the stupid question, but is the Hennessey a handicap?

[Woodie]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

I'm sorry for the stupid question, but is the Hennessey a handicap?

Yup

[Gingertipster]

I agree about Afsoun, I have backed it at big prices for the Champion. I know it is being aimed at the World (stayed well on the flat) but at Kempton it showed plenty of pace before falling (Christmas Hurdle). It looks a poor year for the 2 milers this term so hopefully Henderson will be tempted. Also, stable companion Punjabi is over-priced around 70 or 80/1 last time I looked. Got around 6 lengths to make up on Katchit but is a much bigger type, more scope for improvement than Alan Kings horse and much bigger price too.
Did do Iktitaf aswell, hope he can be saved.

Done Wicheta Lineman at 6's for the World, further he goes the better. Feel sure Inglis will dissapoint at some time this season and drift before running well again. Blazing dissapointed this weekend.

Hope Monet's Garden does run at Cheltenham. Just because he has not won there does not mean he does not act. On this coming seasons weights he would have won the Arkle, (gave 5lbs wfa to Voy Por Ustedes) now level weights. And comes out better than Taranis (had the Grade 1 penalty) last year. This year no penalties. Running at Cheltenham does not stop him winning at Aintree anyway so why not go there?

[Gingertipster]

Have taken a chance that Well Chief will remain sound to win the Champion Chase 13/2. The way he won at Newbury last season suggests the old sparkle is there. His best is far better han the other principals. Fell early in the Champion then did not stay 2 1/2 at Aintree.

The trouble with backing ante-post for Cheltenham's chases is which race will they run in?
The Festival Chase is now a Grade 1 with added prizee money. Kicking King and War Of Attrition were both thought probable runners in a Grade 2 Festival Chase at one stage in their Gold Cup years. Would Kauto Star have risked not staying the trip in the big one if there was a valuable Grade 1 alternative? Even Best Mate in his first year was thought by some as a doubtful stayer. Some could also switch from the Champion Chase.

My Way De Solzen could run in any of the three races. So could Monet's Garden (or none), Taranis could run over 2 1/2 or 3 1/4m. Where will Don't Push It end up? Even Exotic Dancer could end up at the shorter trip if connections get fed up of chasing Kauto.

[Woodie]

My antepost bets for Cheltenham so far are

Sir Boreas Hawk @ 100/1 Champion Hurdle
Leslingtaylor @ 33/1 Arkle
Ringaroses @ 79/1 Sun Allliance

Sir Boreas Hawk - A big outsider price even bigger now he was only 2nd on his debut for the season. One of the best bumper horss from last season only had a small interest.

Leslingtaylor - Jumps well and is being aimed for the race, fell at the weekend but clearly didn't like the testing ground when giving weight all round. Should be spot on for the Arkle come March now having a break and will be out in the new year 33/1 is way to big for such a speedy horse.

Ringaroses - Trainer has thought a lot of this one won't be seen untill after xmas and will be going straight into my 10 to follow in the transfer window. Has rock solid form, 6th in aintree bumper. Last two runs have produced many many winners, is being aimed at the race hoping he makes it will be my biggest payout yet if it comes of!

[WoodyTHFC]

A few thoughts on the main four races (these could well look stupid) with one ante post bet:

World Hurdle. Blazing Bailey @ 14/1 e.w but half that price in places. On the evidence of the run on Sat you would not have it on your mind but sometimes the best time to get on is after a bad run. It was down the field and too far down the field for the lack of a run, quickish ground or the weight to be an excuse on that ocassion but I still think this one is still worth following. It is still only five and open to a lot of improvement and in truth it may not need to find that much. Third in the race last year having already beaten the winner earlier in the year on more favoured soft ground. Also there are probably some question marks as to if Inglis Drever can keep on going and how his new rider will get on as he is not straight forward and BJK has not lived up to the hype and will probably drop in trip. The dour stayer, Witchita Lineman is probably the biggest threat of the newcomers but at nearly three times the price, I am willing to take Blazing Bailey despite that disappointing run on Sat.

[WoodyTHFC]

Champion Hurdle: I do not believe this is a strong renewal imo. Sublimity won well last year but I am not totally convinced. They went far too fast and really set it up for Sublimity, the fact a staying on Afsoun could go onto finish third and not be a million miles away, imo does little for the form and of course the main hope, Detroit City really disappointed. Sublimity also is quite a frail horse and it might not be so easy as to even getting him there. Also I am slightly suspicious of horses who suddenly can find such huge improvement which he did and until he can maintain his form I remain unconvinced. Katchit has done nothing wrong however the five year old stat is a concern and even though he could run well in most of the year, he might be vulnerable on the day. So that leaves this race open and there are a few that maybe worth following. Macs Joy was third yesterday in an ok run on unfavoured ground and for a re appearance. If he could repeat his 2006 second to Brave Inca he will be bang in there. The question probably though is can he? A few relatively unexposed types such as Blythe Knight, Clopf, Aitmatov, De Valira, Silent Oscar despite different question marks could be 'surprise' packages. Clopf and De Valira interest me the most of these. Clopf travelled well for a long time yesterday and is extremely highly thought of by his trainer who does well at Cheltenham, it won a top novice in Ireland last year and yet probably was not at his best and De Valira has form over many horses last year such as Catch Me and even yesterdays impressive winner, Sizing Europe, it travelled ok at Cheltenham last year but probably underperformed when down the field and the trainers lack of form at the time could expalin that. Anyway, imo it is an open event this year.

[WoodyTHFC]

Champion Chase. Voy Por Ustedes ran well yesterday in bad conditions and under a big weight. It bids for back to back wins and a third festival win on the trot. It deserves credit for achieving that and probably does not get enough but I have always had the slight feeling that it is not quite top top class. It won the Arkle in 2006 when getting a crucial five pounds and won what turned out to be a poor Champion Chase when Well Chief fell and could even afford a bad mistake that really should have ended any chances of winning the race. The horses it beat are not World beaters. Well Chief was awesome on its re appearance even if it was flattered a touch by Ashley Brook going a suicidal pace before things did not go its way at the end of the year. The question is if it can re create its form of a few years ago because if it does then it will be so difficult to beat. It would not totally surprise me if that say after running in the Tingle Creek its kept completely fresh until Cheltenham. Twist Magic was running a stormer in what I think was a very good Arkle last year and has boosted his claims since with good wins especially at Aintree. At the moment, this is the one I favour mostly as I feel there are doubts about Well Chief's ability to find its old form, if VPU is absolutely top draw and that this one has even more improvement in him. Of the notable others, there are doubts as to whether MWDS will run at this trip which is unlikely, Monets Garden may not even go to Cheltenham and Dont Push It, who I rate highly, I think will go up in trip.

[WoodyTHFC]

Gold Cup. This does look to be a very strong race unlike possibly some of the others. Kauto Star in many ways is a modern staying chaser who has a real turn of foot and often travels extremely well. Last year it did it all despite some jumping errors. The main question I would have is whether it is a complete stayer. Last years Gold Cup was ridden at a slow pace (Beef and Salmon led them for a long time and that is no front runner) and not really a true test of stamina whcih may have asked question of Nicholls star chaser. If Denman in it this year, it will be more of a test which means there is a potential scenario of both Nicholls horses ruining each others chances or mainly Kauto Star's. However Kauto Star's last run was interesting as it did not travel as well as it has been doing like a 2m horse but looked more of a stayer and if that is the case then it will be difficult to beat imo as it is more likely to properly stay a strongly ridden race and yet should still have a bit of its speed left. There are many others to consider. Exotic Dancer got better and better last year but could not quite catch Kauto Star and despite being a good horse, imo in what looks a hot Gold Cup it could find a few too good and it might just want to improve its jumping a bit because for all Kauto Star's mistakes, this one can make equally as bad if not worse errors. My Way De Solzen won a very good Arkle last year even if two very lively rivals fell and proved the year before that it stays when winning the World Hurdle. Like Kauto Star it might be one who has the 2m speed and can 'stay' the Gold Cup distance. It is in many ways a dark horse and looks an obvious threat and will be interesting to see how it runs before the Gold Cup because if it does struggle to stay it could still run elsewhere. Aces Four who made a quietly un noticed re appearance, challenged Denman for a long time at Cheltenham and could be another dark horse but I have a suspicion that this one could go to the RyanAir. Taranis is another one who we are not sure what it will be aimed at but it is a very hard giving horse and the type who I could see running very well if does run and clues will be given at Haydock next week and Kempton next month. Dont Push It I think is more of a staying type with the 2m kick like KS and MWDS and is another dark horse but again could go for the Ryan Air as could Another Promise who won a top Irish race that often provides good clues for Cheltenham. Other returning horses to consider are Star de Mohasion who is still unexposed and if they come back, Kicking King and War of Attrition who imo might find it hard. Overall a top race in prospect and if I had to pick one I might go for Kauto Star in particular if he can can show that he can properly stay as suggested LTO over a shorter trip.

Just a few thought for all these four races but of course a lot can change and some of these horses might not even be there come March.

[Gingertipster]

Excellant reasoning in all four catagories Woody.
I agree with most of it, just came to a different conclusion.

Blazing Bailey does look too big at 14/1 though.

[mowgli77]

Alan King seems to have doubts about MWDS getting the Gold Cup trip and I don't think it will run in that. One of my old favourites Star De Mohaison will be back soon, but what are the chances of it running in the Gold Cup. They were touting it as a Gold Cup horse but with Kauto Star and Denman already likely to line up will he be tempted to go triple handed at it? It loves Cheltenham and would be a real danger if allowed to take its place.

Nice reasoning on all ante post bets over the last few days.

[mileni4uk]

What do you think about Exotic Dancer in the King George? 12/1 @ Sporting Bet looks too big for me with Taranis and Monet's Garden having lower prices?! I still think Exptic Dancer is top chaser and is definitely good enough to challange Kauto Star. And he's definitely better than these two mentioned. What's the distance of the King George? 3m? All your thoughts and tips for the race will be appreciated!

[mileni4uk]

Yea .. 3m .. I think Exptic Dancer is worth 12/1 for the King George. My only concern is that owner and trainer may onde day decide to start winning some races and just avoid Kauto Star. But if I was owner I would have been trying to beat KS everytime I can, because it is all about that.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Yea .. 3m .. I think Exptic Dancer is worth 12/1 for the King George. My only concern is that owner and trainer may onde day decide to start winning some races and just avoid Kauto Star. But if I was owner I would have been trying to beat KS everytime I can, because it is all about that.

Exotic Dancer still remains one of my ante post fancies for the Gold Cup & felt that last year it was a tad unlucky when the loose horse ran across it after the last, as it meant it couldnt run up the hill on that stride whereas KS could as it was in the clear. McCoy could well win the King George on ED but i think all roads will lead to the Gold cup for this one. Its record at Cheltenham is excellent which must be considered.

With KS @ 5/2, Denman @ 5/1 & Exotic @ 12/1, you can stake against all 3 with say £100 = KS £60 (£110profit), Denman £25 (£50profit), ED £15 (£95profit).

[Gingertipster]

I think, reading between the lines, if ED does not get close to KS in the Betfair then ED will not be at Kempton on Boxing day. The price takes this into account.

What about MWDS Mr. Bowles, won't he have a say in the Gold Cup?

The price you are taking is a tad worse than 10/11 about the three. Do you want to take odds on this far off? If you think you have a beter than 53% chance then go for it.

[mowgli77]

Why has betting been suspended on Betfair for the big race at Haydock?