Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

[bowles10]

Anything you want to note, mention or just chat about the jumps season ahead.

I personally cant wait for those big meetings at Newbury, Cheltenham & Wetherby coming up.

[bowles10]

my 1st long range bets for Cheltenham are:

Champion Chase

Dont Push it 33/1 Bet365
Granit Jack 40/1 Bet365

reasons to follow over the next few days but these 2 will be followed by me during the season.

[bowles10]

Sunday 28/10 Aintree Old Roan Chase

ASHLEY BROOK 7/1 Corals

With Kauto Star only having its first gallop this week, it may pay to back against it. Only Corals are offering odds at present, but i know faces have already got 10's on Ashley Brook.

[mowgli77]

Have only had 1 ante post bet so far on Star De Mohaison for the Gold Cup but not really sure it would run in that race anyway. Got about 30.0 on Betfair I think for a small stake.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

my 1st long range bets for Cheltenham are:

Champion Chase

Dont Push it 33/1 Bet365
Granit Jack 40/1 Bet365

reasons to follow over the next few days but these 2 will be followed by me during the season.

dont push it wins today @ 2/1 over hurdles in a gutsy finish. that would have sharpened him up & cant wait to see it over fences.

[WoodyTHFC]

Is it possible that Dont Push It who I like and even put it up in my jumps thread, could even be aimed at the Gold Cup? I have just felt that he maybe more of the staying type and a theorist could argue that Fehily was on board today with a longer term aim that in say the Gold Cup he could ride Dont Push It with McCoy on Exotic Dancer. I know McCoy is contracted to JP Mcmanus but in last years Gold Cup he was on Exotic Dancer rather than JP's runner in that race so it might be possible. Still all speculation and overall it looks a very good horse indeed the only horse to challenge Denman last year.

[pete10]

Petit Lord looks one to follow for sure . Has won twice now for Paul Nicholls.

[socky1]

Noel meade looks to have some belting novice hurdlers this year, Rinroe looks an espeiaclly nice sort yesterday at Galway.

[RussP]

Leslingtaylor looked a class act when winning at Aintree and is one to follow.

Obvious I know, but I'll be struggling to oppose Katchit all season

[Woodie]

Originally Posted by RussP

Leslingtaylor looked a class act when winning at Aintree and is one to follow.

Obvious I know, but I'll be struggling to oppose Katchit all season

Coral go 33/1 for Leslingtaylor to win the Arkle which looks a tasty price infact I'm proberly going to have a bet on this one later.

[tedthewolf]

At Carlisle today ROYAL ROSA ran a fair race to finish 5th and finally looks to be able to handle the bigger fences.Looks one to keep an eye on.I would like to see it dropped back to a trip under 3m as it is not finishing it races but that probably wont happen.Can see it turning up at Cheltenham in march and running a big race at a big price.Wont be over raced as it got dodgey pins!

[jones12345]

i thought the charlie hall chase at wetherby was a very good early season pointer

so me for 1 to watch out for is ACES FOUR i know he was pulled up 2 out but was well there turning in and it was well documented that he would need the run this should bring him on loads and hopefully he,ll be winning races soon

[bowles10]

I finally got to see Kauto Star's race from last sunday & must admit it impressed me the way the horse battled on to only go down 1.5L giving so much weight away. Last year, the horse ran away with this race gallopimg his rivals into the ground. This year you could tell it wasnt as fit as it let the front runners go off & was never able to catch up. The Gold Cup is surely the only aim this season & i hope it will avoid the irish races on the poor ground & concentrate on racing over here defending its King George crown before going onto the Gold cup in March.

Monets garden has to be respected on the flatter tracks like Aintree & it wont be far away at Kempton this time & should be a cracking race. Monets can never win a gold cup though round Cheltenham. That honour could go to Exotic Dancer who is a different horse round there & will put last weeks disappointing run behind him. I still rate ED as a decent EW shout come next March.

Yesterday's Charlie Hall race included some decent types & State of Play just could nt get to the winner whose trainer is just rattling up the winners. Paddy Brennan full deserves this chance with a good trainer & will no doubt have his best season ever. Ollie Magern runs well there & it wasnt a surprise to see him return to form after injuries plagued last season.

Taranis took in the irish race yesterday & done as asked being workmanlike in victory over its rivals. JUmped well & Ruby was determined to see it over the line at the end. Not sure this is a gold cup horse just yet but may still have improvement in him. One to keep on side this season & perhaps needs to be tested in one of the big chases coming up at Cheltenham.

[mileni4uk]

Let me put my thoughts as well since I am able to watch every race now. (Thank you Steward for telling me about Channel 4 website)

I think Kauto Star will again be the one to beat this season. But at Cheltenham I will never write off Exotic Dancer, who was very close in the Gold Cup and last week's performance was just for fitness and getting race fit. I have plenty of horses to follow and many of them still have to run for the first time this season. I'll write about them in the next weeks

Disappointed The Listener fell yesterday, would have been interesting to see a battle between him and Taranis. Trainer said the horse is fine and just "overjumped" the fences, because he likes to jump so much. He will definitely win some races in Irdeland, I have no doubt about that. Especially when the ground gets softer.

BJK won on his first appearance and despite many think he should have won it easily, I think he was good enough. Faasel is no donkey and BJK will only get better and better after this opperation.

State Of Play ran a sound race too and the winner Ollie Magern was as we can see far fitter and ready for this race. But if they meet again in some weeks time I am sure the former will have his word and will be up for the battle.

[danj2202]

Originally Posted by WoodyTHFC

Is it possible that Dont Push It who I like and even put it up in my jumps thread, could even be aimed at the Gold Cup? I have just felt that he maybe more of the staying type and a theorist could argue that Fehily was on board today with a longer term aim that in say the Gold Cup he could ride Dont Push It with McCoy on Exotic Dancer. I know McCoy is contracted to JP Mcmanus but in last years Gold Cup he was on Exotic Dancer rather than JP's runner in that race so it might be possible. Still all speculation and overall it looks a very good horse indeed the only horse to challenge Denman last year.

I have bet it for the champion chase as well at 33/1 but have a sneaking suspicion it may end up in the Ryanair instead

[bowles10]

3 novice hurdlers caught my eye recently for the notebook

Cant Buy time - Jonjo O'Neill (4th yesterday, given relatively easy ride will be better suited nearer the pace on a tighter track)

Chrysander - E Williams (3rd on debut, not knocked about once surrendered lead to the winner 2 out)

Shore thing - C Egerton (2nd on debut, looked to be the winner but overtaken near the line, jockey hands & heels on 1st run, will come on for the experience)

[Hoprock]

Champion Hurdle

Afsoun 60.0
Gaspara 200.0

I've not backed these yet but they are available on Betfair at the prices shown above. I was wondering if anyone could offer any thoughts before I dive in (with my few pence !)

Afsoun was 3rd last year when all the stats will tell you that it was too young. It really seemed to take to Cheltenham and with another years maturity, the price looks too big in my opninion.

Gaspara is much more speculative but if it lines up, then the price is massive. It's a big improver and really impressed at Cheltenham last year. It strikes me as having the potential to be like Essex was a couple of years back where it improved so much that it has hammered down to about 8/1 leading upto the Festival. As with Afsoun, these are both speculative punts so far away from March but there could be plenty of opportunity to trade before then.

[danj2202]

Gaspara is very short in the betting for the Ladbrokes World hurdle which would suggest that was the intended target for that one

[jcosgrove]

I think Afsoun is also going for the world hurdle. I was very keen to back him for Champion Hurdle.

Aitmatov is one of my picks for champion hurdle - had some of the big prices on betfair.

[Hoprock]

thanks guys

just the kind of info I was after......

I'll keep an eye on any snippits about these 2.
I'd have thought connections would find it hard not to be tempted to run Afsoun in the Champion Hurdle after last years effort and Gaspara is owned by Martin Pipe so I'll keep an eye open for any comments from him.