Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

[RussP]

How much, Rob? Tell me you had £50 on it!

Really well done mate. Well deserved too

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by RussP

How much, Rob? Tell me you had £50 on it!

Really well done mate. Well deserved too

i mean peanuts mate, it was all i could get, but nice nonetheless, i think it went 85.0 & next price was 60.0

[TheRat]

Excellent Rob. Great great price

[friskyfitz]

[AK1979]

Quote:

I'm slightly concerned about this ones stamina - in both of his races over 3m 2f + he hasnt really shown up.

I'm preferring Parsons Legacy through his narrow defeat to Cloudy Lane at Cheltenham. He subsequently went on to finish 3rd in last years Scottish National, beaten only 1/1/2 lengths. Has some top class form in the book, versatile re: ground and has a great racing weight. Looks big at 32.0 bearing in mind Cloudy Lanes price.

Parsons Legacy @ 32.0 betfair

As far as the National is concerned, nothing really caught my eye at Cheltenham this week, although Patsy Hall has been backed after a good run.

I've already backed Parsons Legacy and trainer Philip Hobbs was featured in "Trainer File" in the RFO this week lads and here's his quote:

"He was going to run in the Kim Muir again, a race in which he has been placed twice, including last season when he was an unlucky second. However, the Grand National is the main plan now and he would go there with a sound chance. He has some very solid form to his namehaving finished 3rd in the Scottish National last year and he has run 2 sound races this season at Cheltenham finishing 5th and 4th."[/i


High Chimes win in the Kim Muir boosts his form too through a line with Cloudy Lane.

I still cant get my head around his price of 33/1. I would price him between 14/1 and 20/1 personally.

My other ante post selection Mon Mome finished a respectable 6th in the William Hill Chase where he was staying on. Having backed him at prices between 140.0-160.0, I have now laid him off at 42.0 to get my stake back for a free bet.


Grand National Bets:

Parsons Legacy 32.0 betfair
Parsons Legacy 33/1 ew VC Bet

Mon Mome backed at 150.0, 160.0 and 170.0 betfair
Mon Mome - laid at 42.0 for free bet

Rambling Minster 85.0 betfair - NON/RUNNER
Beef or Salmon @ 160.0 betfair - NON/RUNNER

[mowgli77]

Before yesterdays racing at Newcastle I logged onto Bet365 Mobile and backed McKelvey each way for the Grand National at 12's, that run will have put it spot on, was not too concerned if it won or not yesterday.

I have also had a few quid on Robert Winston at 25-1 for Top Flat Jockey 2008. We were discussing why the hell Frankie Dettori is 100-1 for top jockey. I know he doesn't go to many all weather tracks or Ponty on a cold Tuesday afternoon but 100-1 is massive. McEvoy is stable 2nd string and he is 50-1. I think Winston is a great jockey and he was unfortunate with injury a few years ago when going well, just depends if he has a stable to ride for or is going freelance.

Also backed Ibn Khaldun each way at 12-1 for the Derby. It won the Racing Post Trophy in fine style, Godolphin came all the way back from the Breeders Cup just to watch that horse at Doncaster and Authorized won the same race before going on to win last years Derby. It will probably start single figures for the Derby but I may also see what price it is for the 2000 Guineas, not sure what route they will send it.

[AK1979]

I think Dettori has about half as many rides as everyone else so will have to be going some to be in contention.

Try getting McKelvey on betfair mate - he's trading at 20+. I was personally a bit disappointed with his race yesterday - still doesnt look fit to me and only 3 weeks to go? I would like to see more proof that he's over his injury and yesterdays race didnt really do it for me.

Hope you had a good day How's the head?

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by AK1979

I think Dettori has about half as many rides as everyone else so will have to be going some to be in contention.

Try getting McKelvey on betfair mate - he's trading at 20+. I was personally a bit disappointed with his race yesterday - still doesnt look fit to me and only 3 weeks to go? I would like to see more proof that he's over his injury and yesterdays race didnt really do it for me.

Hope you had a good day How's the head?

I'm fine, just a bit tired. Didn't drink at the races, drinking and gambling don't mix well. Had 2 winners (5-1 and 7-1) and 3 placed (20-1, 25-1, 25-1) from 7 races, hit a straight flush on the card tables at 3 card poker (5-1 paid for the ante, 35-1 paid for the pair plus) and finished 5th in the poker tourney so a good weekend.

I don't expect Dettori to make as many trips as other jockeys but felt if he finds himself with a realistic chance of being top jockey he might make the effort, the weekends away in Italy, Germany, France, Dubai etc also hit hard as he is away and others fire in 4 or 5 winners etc, just thought 100-1 was a big price. As for McKelvey, may take some work to get it fit but I'm more interested in it over jumps than hurdles and it had a similar preparation last year. Only horse I've had a proper look at for the national.

[mileni4uk]

What happens with antepost lays at betfair if the horse doesn't run?
A winning bet or void?

[AK1979]

These are the rules for the Champion Hurdle 2009 market, so i assume these are correct for this year too.


Who will win this race? Dead heat rules apply. This is an ante post market. All bets stand run or not unless void under the Horseracing Rules and Regs or under the Betfair Terms and Conditions.

[mileni4uk]

I am asking and need to be sure, because I plan to back Kasbah Bliss at 9.0 and lay it at 7.8 for a nice free bet

[WoodyTHFC]

Originally Posted by WoodyTHFC

Grand National weights came out today and there were a few that caught the eye down the weights. Character Building at 10-05 especially if it it was not too quick, Philson Run at 10-05 who ran a fine race last year when fourth, Longshanks at 10-03 did not quite get home last year but looks lowly weighted although looks doubtful I would have thought to get in.

One that I think could get in at 10-06 is Comply or Die who is 40/1 but on the exhanges has been going on some big prices 370+, I settled for 150 for 5 pts and 20 to place 5 pts. Now whilst some other former RSAC seconds are more fancied for this race such as Snowy Morning and Idle Talk even, this one definitely boasts top form from his 2005 RSAC second when just beaten by Trabolgan. Earlier that season it was Grade 2 winner over fences. Over its hurdle days it was fourth behind Fundamentalist and Inglis Drever at the festival. After its RSAC second it was described as a horse who gallops forever so a race like the GN would seem a logical target in the future. At this stage it was 147 and showed good ground was seemingly ideal. After that it must be said it had disappointed generally, it produced the odd good run in a Hennessy but was pulled up in SGN and WGN. However it returned this season after a two year break and did take some going but lto it produced a brave front running performance on testing ground when just denied by Cloudy Lane who is much shorter for the GN, with the aid of first time blinkers. Now there is a four pounds swing with Cloudy lane so that is fair enough and it is rated offically now 139 which compares well to its old mark. It remains only 9 and reasonably lightly raced and that fact that it has been kept in training by David Johnson and Pipe suggests they think something of it. I see it is entered at a traditional GN trial at Haydock next week and certainly the prices on the exchanges seem big to me.

Put a few in this thread but to get a winner and a Grand National winner with this one is amazing, I think its the biggest winner Ive ever had, not much on it but at those huge prices you dont need much

[AK1979]

Awesome mate

[Tulenos]

[mowgli77]

A bit early but I've had £10 at 80.0 on Star De Mohaison to win the 2009 Cheltenham Gold Cup. If it ever gets another bloody run over jumps it might have a chance.

[AK1979]

ORION D’OUDAIRES

The form of this ones last race is looking good. 3 of the first 4 home have won since, with Orion D'Oudaires sandwiched in between them. Fell when going well previously. He should go well next time so i'll most likely be backing him.

[mileni4uk]

16/1 Denman for next year's Grand National. Anyone?

[Gingertipster]

OOOPS wrong place!