Jump Season 2009/2010 ~ Horses To Follow, Antepost Bets, Banter, Q&A

[Gingertipster]

Where is the evidence of a left handed and best fresh arguement?
IC has only run twice right handed and one of those can easily be excused.
5 weeks to get over Haydock and has run really well with less than 4 weeks apart. (See my post above).

[billvernon]

I feel as a follower of Imperial Commander and having had him in the Ryanair - my gut instinct tells me the race with Kauto was a good race but - I do not think Kauto was fully wound up and that the King George is the big one along with the Gold Cup and that Kauto will win .The prove off course will be in the pudding.Imperial is a left hander for me so only time will tell.Kauto is a star and I hope finally he will get the History making races under his belt .

If Kauto does lose to Imperial ( he says hoping no mishap) and Imperial wins fair and square then I am quite willing to eat my christmas paper hat.

[billvernon]

Well I did not have to eat my PAPER HAT though after all that Turkey I might consider it just for a change - But WOW was'nt Kauto good.
That folks is what racing is all about to see stuff like that is brilliant.

[jcosgrove]

I think Twiston-Davies' stable form affected the way Imperial Commander run. The trainer is on his usual bad run mid season with only 5 winners from 84 runners this month. Last December he had only 1 winner from 46 runners and Imperial Commander also ran poorly in last years King George.

[fintron]

Grand National - Dream Alliance 33/1 Bet 365 EW

Was impressed with this one in the Welsh National and if he has come back to his best after a massive absence (tendon injury) then he could still have a bit of room to manoevre off his current mark. He's gone up to 151 (+9 lb) but with Mon Mome in the field will probably be getting weight from at least one runner. Either way, he is a proven stayer, has won valuable prizes and has experience of the hustle and bustle of these big national type races.

[mileni4uk]

Be careful, fin. The trends guys will tell you a horse can't win the national with so much weight I like him a lot. I still don't know how I didn't back him in the Welsh National. The good thing is Tom O'Brien would probably keep the ride, so good luck

[AK1979]

Milen, if Notre Pere lines up off 163, then Dream Alliance is running off an ideal weight off 151. Even if Mon Mome is top weight off 161, Dream Alliance should still only get 11 stone which is ok.

He is top of my list at the moment. I havent backed him yet though.

[mileni4uk]

I don't think Mon Mome would be 161 though. He is rated 156 at the moment. And if Notre Pere doesn't line up (lively ground), then Dream Alliance would carry a lot of weight.

[fintron]

i dunno what to make of the weight thing. In flat handicaps I always look for the top horses at the top end of the handicap first, so I have always had a problem with the Grand National trend that says ignore those with the big weights. Was last years just a freak race? As comply or die carried 11-6 into second and infact all the first four home were carrying 11.0+.

Diamond has mentioned Backstage for the National, I also like the look of him, and Possol of Henry Daly's. I need to tot up what Ive already backed though as I think Ive wasted a bit already ante-post and dont fancy Hello Bud or Arbor Supreme strongly at present.

[AK1979]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

I don't think Mon Mome would be 161 though. He is rated 156 at the moment. And if Notre Pere doesn't line up (lively ground), then Dream Alliance would carry a lot of weight.

The handicapper has already told Venetia Williams that Mon Mome will be rated 161 for the National

[AK1979]

I'm trying to find the article where I read that but I cant find it now and i'm starting to doubt myself

Its late and I need some sleep but i'll see if I can find it tomorrow

[AK1979]

Found it.....


Venetia Williams, his trainer, outlined the plans between lots at Tuesday’s Tattersalls Horses-in-Training sale in Newmarket where she was replenishing stock.
”I entered him in the Hennessy this morning,” she said. “He’s rated 161 so races are going to be a lot more limited for him this season and winning one is going to be a lot harder. It will be tough for him off levels with Kauto Star.


”I have had a conversation with the Handicapper Phil Smith and he has told me that is the minimum rating he will have for this season’s National. He said he will not go down whatever so there’s no point in trying to muck about trying to protect or reduce his mark.

[mileni4uk]

Ok, that's quite interesting. When are the weights published? Sometime next month, right?

Btw Dream Alliance looks a soft ground hrose to me. Has a win in a novice chase on good to soft, but everything else is on soft and heavy indlucing the 2nd to Denman in 2007.

[Gingertipster]

Impressed with Big Fella Thanks yesterday, won with a lot more up his fetlock than distances suggest. Already well handicapped before yesterday. Would've won pushed out without idling badly on the run-in. Not 100% convinced he stays 4 1/2m, but 12/1 (Laddies) looks worth at least a saver to find out. Added to my portfolio.