JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[TheRat]

[jtw1]

MONDAY
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WOLVES 3.10

2006	Vancouver Gold (8)	4	8-7	9/2	K R Burke	Robert Winston	60
2005	Ziet D'Alsace (2)	5	8-7	5/2	A W Carroll	Chris Catlin	58
2005	Prince Dayjur (3)	6	9-3	10/11F	P A Blockley	Dean McKeown	72
2004	Feast Of Romance (6)	7	8-12	7/1	P Howling	Shane Kelly	60
2003	Air Of Esteem (3)	7	8-12	14/1	D Nicholls	Francis Norton	67
2003	Arc El Ciel (8)	5	8-12	3/1J	B R Millman	Neil Pollard	65
2002	Red Delirium (7)	6	9-3	11/4F	R Brotherton	Ian Mongan	66
2001	On The Trail (7)	4	9-3	6/4	S Dow	Paul Doe	67
2001	Victorious (6)	5	8-12	5/4J	R A Fahey	Jamie Spencer	62
2000	Ra Ra Rasputin (2)	5	8-11	5/1	B A McMahon	L Newman	60

A Seller to have a look at here and unusually for the type of race the market it's usually a fancied horse that wins with only one winner in the past 10 being double figures in the betting.
Nine 8y-olds have contested the event since 2000 with none winning.
Horses carrying 9:3 and single figures in the betting have a record of 1,0,1,1.

SHRINE MOUNTAIN beat RAFFERTY 2 runs ago and has since finished 3rd in a 10f race [never won over 8f and ran v freely that time]
That was RAFFERTY'S first run for a while ,so improvment could be looked for , however he's an 8y-old so the preference is for the former, being a
7y-old carrying 9:3 and 2nd fav in the RP f'cast.


Fav to ignore - PLUMPTON 3.30 - 0 WINS IN 9 RUNNINGS

[jtw1]

SHRINE MOUNTAIN UNP
RAFFERTY 2ND

PLUMPTON 3.30 FAV UNP -

[jtw1]

Nothing stands out for Tuesday

[jtw1]

Just one race to consider and in it only one trend to consider and that is the runners of trainer MW EASTERBY.

NEWCASTLE 12.40 A 2m Maiden Hurdle race

EASTERBY'S record [since 2000] = 1st [7/2] , 3rd [4/1] , 1st [5/1] ,
2nd [16/1] , no runner in 2005 , 1st [11/2].

Quite an impressive record i think you'll agree.
I beleive that there are some races that a certain Trainer will have a runner marked out for and will have it aimed at that race . This could be one of these.

SELECTION - DANCE THE MAMBO F/cast odds = 11/4


FAV to avoid = 2.50 Newcastle 0/6

[jtw1]

DANCE THE MAMBO 1ST @ 4/1

NEWC 2.50 FAV - UNP

[friskyfitz]

Have just found this thread and it seems to be doing very nicely

Nice work mate

[friskyfitz]

ironically - one horse you mentioned early in the thread "king of beers"

Well......

Lingfield 12:20

1st (9) King of The Beers 33-1
2nd (7) Voss 4-1
3rd (5) It's No Problem 33-1
11 ran
Also 7-2 Fav Don't Desert Me

[jtw1]

Never even noticed it mate !!

TAUNTON 1.20 Nov Hurdle

2006	Siberian Highness	5	11-4	11/10F	A King	Robert Thornton	122
2006	Princelet	4	10-7	13/8F	N J Henderson	A P McCoy	101
2005	Medison	5	11-4	11/10F	M C Pipe	Timmy Murphy	119
2005	Daryal	4	10-7	9/1	A King	Robert Thornton	104
2004	Fleet Street	5	11-11	11/8F	N J Henderson	Mick Fitzgerald	124
2004	Misty Dancer	5	10-13	2/1F	Miss Venetia Williams	Sam Thomas	98
2003	Shalako	5	11-11	2/1F	P J Hobbs	Richard Johnson	122
2002	Samon	5	11-4	6/4	M C Pipe	A P McCoy	145
2001	Cupboard Lover	5	11-4	4/1	N J Henderson	Mick Fitzgerald	120
2000	Seebald	5	11-4	1/3F	M C Pipe	A P McCoy	123

This is a race that has been won by one of the countries TOP TRAINERS
PIPE stable have had 20 runners - 3 wins , 2 places.
HOBBS - 6th , 3rd , 1st , 3rd , 2nd.
KING - 3RD , 3RD , 1ST , 3RD , 1ST .

9 out of 10 has been won by 1st or 2nd Fav.
EIGHT 5Y-OLDS and TWO 4Y-OLDS have won.

PIPE has 2 runners , GO SOLO is 6 y-old so is ignored , AMIR EL JABAL [4y-old]
HOBBS runs BON VIVEUR [4y-old]
KING runs RUSSIAN CONSORT and his record and the fact that this is a 5y-old makes it my personal selection , though i believe that the winner will come from one of these 3.


2.50 TAUNTON
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PIPE has won this 4 times from 8 races.
No 4y-old has won.
5+6y-olds have won 9/10 , the other was an 8y-old.
No horse carrying under 10:11 has won.

VISIBILITY - PIPE's 8Y-OLD carrying 11:8 and ridden by a claimer should have a good e-w chance.


3.20 TAUNTON
---------------

Just a couple of pointers to consider here

1- ALL horses aged over 10+ have only 6 places , no wins from 34 runners
2- CHARLIES FUTURE has a record of 5 , 2 , 1, 2 when running at TAUNTON in SOFT or HEAVY going.
PASSENGER OMAR'S has won 4 times but 3 of them have been at WARWICK


FAVS to avoid - TAUNTON 1.50 1 out of 10

[jtw1]

Ah the great British weather

FRIDAY
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WOLVES 1.20

2006	Augustine (11)	5	10-13	7/2J	P W Hiatt	Mrs Marie King	64
2005	Jidiya (6)	6	10-7	7/2F	S Gollings	Mr T F Woodside	71
2005	Cormorant Wharf (12)	5	10-11	5/1	T E Powell	Miss J Powell	76
2004	Scottish River (8)	5	10-5	5/1	M D I Usher	Mr Lee Newnes	69
2004	Sting Like A Bee (6)	5	9-10	8/1	J S Goldie	Kelly Harrison	61
2003	Our Destiny (10)	5	9-7	10/1	D Burchell	Mrs S Moore	39
2003	Scented Air (11)	6	10-5	4/1	P W Hiatt	Miss E J Jones	62
2002	Western Command (7)	6	11-0	9/4F	Mrs N Macauley	Mrs M Morris	54
2002	Spanish Star (9)	5	10-12	4/1	Mrs N Macauley	Mrs M Morris	57
2001	May Queen Megan (9)	8	9-10	25/1	Mrs A L M King	Mrs S Bosley	52

This 1m1f Amateur riders H'cap has been split into 2 divisions and it's the 1st of these that we're taking a look at.
AGE - SIX 5Y-OLDS , THREE 6Y-OLDS have been successful [1x8y-old]
27 4Y-OLDS have ran with only 4 being placed and 0 wins.
WEIGHTS - Nothing above 11:00 has won.
Apart from the 25/1 8y-old winner in 2001 , all winners have been 10/1 or under in the betting.
That leaves 2 to consider [although both carrying over 11:00]
UHURU PEAK + ZANDO.
Preference is for the former as his jockey tomorrow is MISS BROTHERTON who has won 3 times on him , indeed his ONLY WINS , from 5 mounts.


A pointer for the 4.35 wolves is N LITTMODENS record of 2 wins from 4 runners [ one finished 4th beaten only 1l and reported as running on]
His entry in this is the 12/1 shot NINTH HOUSE .

Note - All 5 runnings of the 3.55 MUSS have been won by 4y-olds


FAV to avoid - 2.55 MUSSLEBURGH 1 out of 10

[jtw1]

UHURU PEAK UNP [vets report states that the horse finished lame]

NINTH HOUSE 2ND @ 9/1

MUSS 2.55 FAV - 2ND

MUSS 3.55 - 1ST 4Y-OLD 7/4 F

[jtw1]

SATURDAY - A bit of a rush today so i've left out the big two races at HAYDOCK that BOWLES has covered so well .

LINGFIELD
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1.05 1M Maiden - The market usually shows us the way here with 3 favs ,
1 2nd fav and a 3rd fav being successful.
The last 5 winners have either had one run on C/D or had ,at most, 2 runs at the end of the flat season.
This gives us 2 to consider - M . CHANNON'S MAN OF VISION who has had a 3rd place on C/D and M TREGONING'S NOOJOOM who fininshed 6th in a NEWBURY Maiden.
Preference is given to NOOJOOM ,as Tregoning won this race last year and looks the more likely to start FAV.



1.45 NAAS - The record of JAMES BOWE and the FAVS stand out in this race .
BOWE has a record of 1 , 2 , 1, 1 since 2002
Favs have won 6/8 runnings.
SWEET KILN is todays Fav and trained by J . BOWE.



1.15 + 1.45 WINC - Again it's a trainer and the record of the FAVS to look at here.It's a Novice race [sometimes split into 2 divs] thats been won by P . NICHOLS 4 times . Since 2002 - 2 , 5 , 1 ,1 , 1 , 1.
6 Favs have won in the last 10 runnings.
NICHOLS has the [probable] Favs in both divs today OTTO DES PICTONS in the 1.15 and BREEDSBREEZE in the 1.45.


3.50 WINC - P . NICHOLS has won this 3 times out of the last 8 runnings
ALMOST BROKE + LE JAGUAR represent his stable today.


FAVS to avoid - 3.45 NAAS 0/8

FAVS to follow - 1.45 NAAS 6/8 + 2.15 NAAS 5/8 + 2.45 NAAS 6/8

[jtw1]

LING 1.05 - 1ST NOOJOOM 5/2F , 2ND MAN OF VISION 11/4 The EXACTA paid £13.40

Winc 1.15 - OTTO DES PICTONS 2ND 5/4F

[jtw1]

BREADSBREEZE 3RD 4/5

SWEET KILN 1.45 NAAS [ ALSO FAV TO FOLLOW] 1ST @ 9/10

[jtw1]

SATURDAY SUMMARY

NOOJOOM 1ST 5/2F
SWEET KILN 1ST 9/10F

OTTO DES PICTONS 2ND 5/4F
BREEDSBREEZE 3RD 4/5F

LE JAGUAR 3RD 10/1
ALMOST BROKE UNP


FAV to follow - 1.45 NAAS 1st 9/10 , 2.15 NAAS UNP ,
2.45 NAAS 2ND
FAV to avoid - 3.45 NAAS UNP

Overall not too bad a day , with the main 2 coming in . Unfortunately P . NICHOLS couldn't repeat last years 6 winners at WINC.
The Favs to avoid definately seems to be worth a look.

[jtw1]

SUNDAY
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FAIRYHOUSE 1.00

2006	Code Of Rules	5	11-10	8/1	T J Taaffe	B J Geraghty	106
2005