JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[TurkeyLurkey]

Looking good overall jtw.

[jtw1]

MONDAY
--------

TAUNTON 1:50

2006	Royal Hector	6	11-12	7/1	Jonjo O´Neill	A P McCoy	130
2005	Waterspray	7	11-9	11/4	J L Spearing	Tony Evans	121
2003	Power Unit	8	10-12	33/1	Mrs D A Hamer	C Rafter	105
2002	Wink And Whisper	6	10-7	7/1	A King	Robert Thornton	104
2001	Odagh Odyssey	7	11-6	6/1	Miss E C Lavelle	Barry Fenton	120
2000	Sunrise Special	7	10-9	12/1	P R Rodford	S Burrough	108
1999	Hightown Cavalier	8	10-5	4/1	R J Hodges	N Williamson	78
1998	Primitive Streak	7	10-0	14/1	R J Hodges	T Dascombe	98
1997	Olliver Duckett	8	10-6	14/1	C L Popham	G Tormey	88

A 2m3f Nov H'cap Chase where no FAV in 9 runnings has won and this coupled with the fact that 5 5y-olds have ran over the years and have failed to win makes taking on the Fav SPIDAM a possibility.
D.PIPE runs the 2nd Fav MARCEL and this is the selection.



TAUNTON 2:20

2006	Kalmini	4	10-5	4/1	Miss Sheena West	Jamie Goldstein	105
2005	Penzance	4	10-7	6/1	A King	Robert Thornton	113
2003	Shalako	5	11-11	2/1F	P J Hobbs	Richard Johnson	122
2002	Samon	5	11-4	6/4	M C Pipe	A P McCoy	145
2001	Cupboard Lover	5	11-4	4/1	N J Henderson	Mick Fitzgerald	120
2000	Seebald	5	11-4	1/3F	M C Pipe	A P McCoy	123

What we have to consider here is the fact that until 2003 only 3 4y-olds had ran in the 4 runnings , since than 13 have been entered and have dominated the placings.
The winning odds range from Fav - 6/1
P.HOBBS has ran 5 horses in this event over the years and those that have been in single figures , odds wise, have been placed 3rd,1st and 2nd.

PREDATUER , trained by P NICHOLS will start fav and be hard to beat but if your looking for an e-way or place bet then P.HOBB'S BON VIVEUR could fit the bill.


WOLVES 3:10 + 5:10

2006	Critic (5)	3	9-0	1/2F	M L W Bell	Jamie Spencer	74
2005	Fire At Will (3)	3	9-0	100/1	A W Carroll	Shane Kelly	56
2005	Twin Peaks (11)	3	9-0	12/1	D R Loder	Eddie Ahern	78
2004	Honest Injun (4)	3	9-0	4/9F	B W Hills	Martin Dwyer	77
2003	Milk And Sultana (5)	3	8-9	6/1	W M Brisbourne	K Dalgleish	73
1997	Flamboyance (1)	3	8-9	11/2	J R Fanshawe	D Harrison	84

The last 4 runnings of this 7f Maiden has fell to colts/geldings of which 3 were trained by a top flat trainer
DIV 1 - DISTANT SUN + NOT TOO TAXING fit the bill
DIV 2 - Last years winning trainer ,M.BELL runs one of only 3 colts/geldings entered and his ARCH OF TITUS is the selection

[TurkeyLurkey]

Originally Posted by jtw1

A 2m3f Nov H'cap Chase where no FAV in 9 runnings has won and this coupled with the fact that 5 5y-olds have ran over the years and have failed to win makes taking on the Fav SPIDAM a possibility.

Cheers for that jtw. I already had my own reasons for laying Spidam and that has just added to my case to oppose it.

[devon]

Hi Folks;

Re the 13.20 and the 14.20 as highlighted - C Mann runs one in each, novice hurdle; record to date from 9/11/06 = L W W W W L 3(100/1) L 2 L L W W L L - all wins 6K value and above.

[Carl]

Quote:

Cheers for that jtw. I already had my own reasons for laying Spidam and that has just added to my case to oppose it.

Great analysis guys.
I know what your saying regarding the Fav's in this race and its a good price for layers anyway but word of warning:

All five favourites won in ‘win only’ events at Taunton last year, though four of the five horses in question were sent off as hot market leaders at 2/11—2/9—1/2—8/15. The other winner was returned at 5/4.

taken from Malcolm Boyle.

[jtw1]

MARCEL 1ST @ 7/2 [albeit by a nk ]

PREDATEUR 1ST @ 4/5 F , BON VIVEUR UNP but as it opened up at 20/1 to eventually go off at 16/1 and i did say that HOBB'S placed in this race had all been single figures it should not have come into consideration.

NOT TOO TAXING 2ND @10/3 + DISTANT SUN 3RD @ 9/2
ARCH OF TITUS 2ND @ 15/8

Both Div of the WOLVES race won by females !! Maybe need to take heed when looking at this particular aspect of things

[Carl]

well done with Marcel in what was a good price at SP, another 1/2 F.......................

[TurkeyLurkey]

Yeah, this is definitely showing a lot of promise jtw. To pick a couple of winners and a couple of 2nd places out of 4 bets is proof of that.

Marcel may have only won by a neck but that's racing. The point is that there were plenty of reasons to oppose Spidam... not least of all it's final SP! You highlighted a couple and were proven right.

[jtw1]

Nothing stands out for tomorrows meetings

[jtw1]

WEDS
-----

LINGFIELD 1:30

The last 10 runnings of this Handicap race have seen only 1 clear Fav and 1 jt Fav win, although the winning odds have ranged from Fav up to 10/1 so we're looking for something in single figures.
Age wise its interesting to note that out of 33 4y-olds to have ran over the years only 1 has been succesful.
So it's worth noting that out of the first 6 in the RP betting f'cast [those under 10/1] only 2 are not 4y-olds.
MISTRAL SKY + WHO'S WINNING are those two and last time out the met in a similar contest won by MISTRAL SKY with WHO'S WINNING only a Hd + Nk back in 3rd.
The winner was getting 4lb from WHO'S WINNING that day but that has not deterred WHO'S WINNING taking him on again ,this time giving away 7lb.

WHO'S WINNING gets the nod here as AGE , ODDS and the fact that the trainer is willing to take on a horse who beat him and is theoretically worse off with MISTRAL SKY are in his favour.

LINGFIELD 3.30 - Just one thing to take into consideration here and thats G . MOORE'S record in this event .
Since last year his record is -
3rd @ 50/1,
1st @ 7/1 ,
1st @ 6/1 ,
5th @ 11/2 [reported that the horse lost his action and RP noted it was probobly a better run than it looked on paper by the horse] ,
No entry ,
Tailed off ,
1st @ 7/2

[jtw1]

NAWAMEES + TUNRNERS TOUCH are MOORE'S entries for the above

[jtw1]

WHO'S WINNING 4th , MISTRAL SKY 5TH [got that bit right !!]
TURNERS TOUCH 4th

WEDS - CATTERICK 1:20 2mNov H'cap Chase

2006	Whaleef	8	11-12	9/2	B J Llewellyn	Tony Dobbin	109
2005	Kids Inheritance	7	11-8	8/1	J M Jefferson	Jim Crowley	108
2004	Mexican	5	11-12	11/2	Micky Hammond	Wilson Renwick	99
2001	Charter Royal	6	10-7	6/1	A R Dicken	B Storey	80
2000	A Day On The Dub	7	11-7	10/1	D Eddy	Derek Byrne	102
1999	Balleswhidden	7	12-0	6/4F	R A Fahey	L Wyer	115

The trends to consider here are position in the weights and in the betting.
5 out of the 6 runnings have been won by either the top weight [3] or 2nd top weight [2].
5 out of 6 winners have ben in the first 4 in the betting [ the other was 5th fav].
KALIC D'ALM [ 5/1] and AVIATION [ 7/1] meet the criteria with personal preference being for the former [due to KALIC D'ALM being a 9y-old]


Here's a list of races where the FAV'S are to be wary of !!!!

CATT 2.20 - 0 winning favs out of 6
CATT 1.20 - 1 out of 6
SOUTHWELL 1.40 - 0 out of 5

[jtw1]

CATTERICK ABANDONED
SOUTHWELL 1.40 FAV UNP


FRIDAY
-------

KELSO 1.40 2m Nov Hur

2006	Alfred The Great	4	10-12	5/2C	P C Haslam	Barry Keniry	106
2005	Faasel	4	10-7	4/11F	N G Richards	Tony Dobbin	84
2005	Diamond Mick	5	11-5	2/1	Mrs R L Elliot	Miss R Davidson	106
2004	Paddy The Piper	7	11-4	3/1	L Lungo	Tony Dobbin	114
2004	Encore Cadoudal	6	11-4	5/4F	P Monteith	Wilson Renwick	103
2000	Minivet	5	12-0	4/5F	T D Easterby	L Wyer	118
1999	Crazy Horse	6	11-10	1/6F	L Lungo	R Supple	125
1998	Deep Water	4	10-0	5/2	Micky Hammond	N Horrocks	100

It usually pays to follow the market here with 7 out of 8 winners coming from the 1st two in the betting [ the exception was 3 rd fav].
4y-olds have a record worth noting with 23 runners of that vintage running over the years and 8 placed ,of which there were 3 winners, 3 2nd's and 1 3rd place.

CROCODILE DUNDEE + STORM PROSPECT are 1st and 2nd FAVS respectively in the RP's FORECAST
Personal preference is for STORM PROSPECT having an AYR win in similar ground to tomorrows.

WOLVES 4.00 1M4F Fillies H'cap

2006	Millagros (5)	6	8-13	4/1	I Semple	Paul Hanagan	70
2005	Big Bertha (8)	7	9-4	7/1	John Berry	George Baker	77
2004	Molly's Secret (4)	6	8-6	16/1	C G Cox	Jimmy Quinn	56
2003	Belinda (1)	6	8-8	6/1	K Bell	Fergus Sweeney	53

Maybe clutching at straws here with only 4 runnings so far but interestingly
it's those older horses who have struck gold with 4y-olds making up nearly half the total runners so far but to no success .
No Fav in 4 has won .
Out of the past 4 winners , 2 had a HURDLE race and one was running for the first time since OCT .
Last years victor runs again tomorrow and is one of only 3 horses aged over 4 and MILAGROS has followed a similar path with his previous race being a 2m Hurdle race at MUSSLEBURGH.


FRIDAYS FAVS TO AVOID

1.20 HUNTINGDON 0-7

[jtw1]

CROCODILE DUNDEE 1ST @ 4/7F , STORM PROSPECT 2ND @ 3/1
HUNTINGDON 1.20 FAV - UNP

MILAGROS UNP