JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

We can kick the weekend off with a winner .


2.35 Newmarket 12f Listed 3yo+
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Race was dead-heated for 1st in 2002 , hence 11 past winners studied.

10/11 were returned 12/1 or Under.
10/11 were 3 or 4 yo [ 5 apiece ]
10/11 ran at Group level LTO
10/11 had ran and won at least once that season
Only the last 8 winners had BHA ratings and all those were 98+
6/11 ran in the Lancs Oaks LTO
Six 4/5yo's have carried a penalty and 3 have won.
J GOSDEN has won this 3 times.


AGE , ODDS and WINNERS this season leave us with -

DAR RE MI [3yo] rated 105 and ran in a Grp 2 LTO.
Trained by J GOSDEN .

ARTHURS GIRL [3yo] rated 102 + ran Group 2 LTO

FOLK OPERA [4yo] rated 107 + ran Group 2 LTO

ICON PROJECT [3yo] rated 97 + ran Group 2 LTO

RONALDSAY [4yo] rated 102 + ran Listed LTO

So with ICON PROJECT only rated 97 and RONALDSAY running only at Listed grade LTO i'm taking them out of the equation.

There's nothing to separate DAR RE MI + ARTHURS GIRL , although the Trainer would have clinced it for the probable Fav .

FOLK OPERA gets the nod due to two other stats which are positives , those are -
1 - It ran in the LANCASHIRE OAKS last time out which no fewer than 6 previous winners have done
2 - It is a 4yo carrying a penalty from which there have been 6 other runners previously and 3 have been sucessful.

[jtw1]

4.30 Newbury 10f Listed 3yo+
------------------------------------

No age group appears to have an advantage
8/9 were returned at 7/1 or under
9/9 were rated 102+
8/9 had ran that season with all 8 finishing 1st or 2nd at least once.
7/9 were 10f winners
7/9 had won at Listed/Group level
7/9 ran Listed/Grp grade TLO , 9/9 ran List/Grp in last or 2nd last outing.


4 look promising for 7/1 or under and they are -

BANKABLE , rated 113 and has won at Listed grade .
Ran in a Cl2 Handicap LTO [ Royal Hunt Cup at RA ] and has won twice this season.
Never won beyond 8f .

AL SHEMALI , rated 108 , won 36k Handicap in Dubai .
Ran at Listed class LTO and is a 10f winner.
Won once this season.

SPANISH MOON , rated 108 and has won a Listed event . Never won over 10f but has won at 12f.
Ran in a Grp 2 LTO and has won once this season.

PASSAGE OF TIME , rated 115 and has won at Grp 1+3 level.
Ran in a Grp 3 LTO and won at 10f .
Has not been placed 1st or 2nd this season.


Although PASSAGE OF TIME has by far and away the best form it has not shown it this season and came stone last of 14 in the Brigadier Gerard .
I can't select this one here , even though CECIL had 4 entries to choose from .

AL SHEMANI has only won a Class 5 Maiden and a 36k Handicap over in Dubai .

SPANISH MOON takes a step down in class here after a disappointing run in the Hardwicke at RA .He got warm at the stalls , had to have the blinds fitted to go in and then ran 'furiously early on ' and when the race began in earest it had nothing left.
Had impressed previously when winning FTO this season in a Listed event from LADY GLORIA who went on to win a GRP 3 at the Derby meeting

BANKABLE ran creditably LTO in the Hunt Cup when drawn 25 and the first 4 home were drawn 4 ,1 , 5 , 6.
It was reported as being excitable in the paddock , had to have the hood re-fitted at the start before going into the stalls and then was isolated in the center of the track after missing the break and the majority of the field went over to the stands rails.

BANKABLE will be hard to beat if settling and it manages to get the 10f , which it should on breeding , but i'm hoping that Ryan Moore can settle SPANISH MOON and with the Fav currently 6/4 with Betfair and the selection around 11/2 i believe the 'value' is with STOUTE'S horse.
The STOUTE/MOORE combination won this last season.

To be honest it's hard to separate those 2 and should really suggest splitting stakes on both to ensure a return .

[jtw1]

FOLK OPERA 2nd @ 5/2 jt fav

SPANISH MOON unp behind PASSAGE OF TIME !! Was there a stewards enquiry ??
If not then why not ?

[jtw1]

Putting this up now as i'm off on hols come Friday and most of the main players are now known.


KING GEORGE Ascot Sat 12f Grp 1 3yo+
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10/10 came from the top 4 in the betting [ 13/2 ] and 6 were Fav.
9/10 had won at Group 1 level , other won Grp 2
9/10 had won over 12f
9/10 had won at least 4 races in its career
9/10 had ran that season , with 8 winning.
9/9 with a previous run had ran 2-4 times
8/10 ran at Grp 1 grade LTO , other 2 ran Grp 2.
8/10 with a rating were rated 120+

Age - 6 x 4yo , 2 x 3yo , 1 x 5yo , 1 x 6yo.


Summary
----------

Out of what looks like being the top 4/5 in the betting we can ignore the chances of ASK who has only won at Grp 3 level and is a 5yo.

Next to go is PAPAL BULL who has similarly not won a Grp 1 ,but it's Grp 2 would give it a chance if it had actually won a race this season and not been a 5yo.

DUKE OF MARMALADE is one of 3 Grp 1 winners in the field , is rated 126 and will start Fav , so far so good ; However it has not ran , never mind win over the 12f . With 2 wins over an extended 10f and his breeding looking doubtful i'm going to take it on.

At first glance i thought YOUMZAIN would be the obvious challenger with it's 2 Group 1 wins over the 12f and rated 125 were definate positives .
But the going might not be in it's favour if there is no significant rainfall up till Saturday.
Winning LTO at St Cloud on G/S , Channon has staed in the past that that type of ground was perfect for his charge and even with the course watering in readyness for the meeting i think the going will be on the fast side of good.
It has won twice on going officially described as G/F and Firm but one was a3 runner Cl 5 conditions stakes at Catterick where the 3rd was btn a distance [ race slow by over 6 secs ] and the other was a Listed event at Newmarket where there was only 5 runners and again the race time was slow by over 4 secs on G/f.
Also a 5yo which is a neg.

That leaves LUCARNO to cause a slight upset here .
The remaining Group 1 winner from the top of the betting it will have no problems with the ground [ won the Leger on G/F with race time 4 secs BELOW ave ] or the distance [ won twice over 12f ].
Theres no doubt it stole it's last race , Grp 2 on G/S , but i think that it can still improve from that run and reverse form with St Cloud running with YOUMZAIN
It is a 4yo , the age group that has won 6 of the last 8 runnings [ other 2 won by 3yo's of which there are no runners this season ]
Negatives - Only rated 116

[MidasTouch]

Have a great break jtw1 and come back with batteries recharged as I for one have missed your very astute analysis these last few days.

I to am away on hols today down to the south of france with the caravan so please be patient on the roads? Ha-Ha

MidasTouch

[jtw1]

Cheers MIDAS and have a great holiday yourself .

Unfortunately , some may say , i'm still hoping to be posting throughout the 2 weeks as we're staying with friends and i'll have access to their PC. I've posted the KG stats early as posting on Saturday could be dodgy .

[jtw1]

Friday 3.20 Listed 8f 3yo+
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6/6 were 3yo's
6/6 carried no penalty
6/6 had only won between Cl 2 - Cl 5
5/6 were returned at 11/2 or Under
5/6 had only won once previously
5/6 were rated 93+
5/6 had been placed in Listed/Group company

Although 3yo's have won the 6 runnings there have been few older horses under 11/2 that have competed in this race .

BARSHIBA [4yo] rated 110 , has won a Listed Handicap which was one of 2 career wins. It has been 2nd in a Grp 2 , 3rd in Gp3 and 4th in a Grp 1 in it's career.

BAHAARA [4yo] rated 109 , has won a Cl2 which was one of 3 wins .
Has been 2nd in a Listed and 5th ,only btn one length in a Grp 3.

FESTIVALE [3yo] rated 101 and won a Listed Handicap LTO , which was her 2nd win .
Has been 3rd in a Grp3 and 3rd in a Listed.

SHAKER [3yo] rated 96 and has won a Cl 5 , it's only career victory.
Was placed 4th LTO only btn two and a quarter lengths in the Listed H'cap won by FESTIVALE.


SUMMARY
---------

I have to assume that the record of the 3yo's is genuine and with that in mind i'm putting a line though BARSHIBA + BAHAARAH for being 4 yo's.

FESTIVALE won a Listed Handicap at Royal Ascot finishing just over 2l in front of SHAKER .
However according to the Racing Post report SHAKER had ' a nightmare run' and could not find a gap when poised to make her move [ funnily enough SPENCER was on board that day , R HALVIN takes the ride here]
SHAKER gets 4lb from FESTIVALE here.
She is the only 3yo not carrying a penalty and has won only once in a Cl 5 event so it fits nearly all the criteria
And given a better run this time could come in at a nice price

[jtw1]

And unfortunately the losing streak continues

SHAKER - UNP
LUCARNO - UNP

Well done to those who stuck with Duke Of Marmalade , he certainly got the 12 f today

[jtw1]

GOODWOOD 3.30 7f Grp 2 3yo+
-----------------------------------

Odds - no great trend here with prices rangins from Fav [1] up to 16/1 .
Age - 3 x 3yo , 3 x 5yo , 2 x 4yo.

7/8 had won over 7f
7/8 won at Listed/Group level [ 6 - Group winners]
8/8 rated 108+
7/8 ran at Listed/Grp grade LTO


Quick summary -

DUNELIGHT + AL QASI have not won over 7f.
KING OF DIXIE has only won at Cl 3 grade .
RACER FOREVER ran in a Handicap LTO.

2 of the 3yo winners had ran in the French 2000 gns that season and with GODOLPHIN winning 2 runnings of this race in previous seasons and the Fav record being poor i'm going to nominate Ii WAARD who ran 12th [ ran too freely that day ] in that race but has winning Listed form on G/F going and is a 7f winner.

Sorry it's a bit bare but time is short on the PC.

[bowles10]

ran like all other Frankie's mounts, poorly.

[jtw1]

Is it me or are GODOLPHIN steadily getting worse as the seasons go by ??

Anyway onto the SUSSEX STAKES at Glorious Goodwood and in summary we're looking for a Previous Grp 1 winner or a close 2nd in Grp 1 company [7/10 ].
Inthe top 4 in the betting [9/10]
Rated 115 + [10/10]
Age - 5 x3yo's , 5 x 4yo+.

Ok so out of the 7 declared runners - MAJOR CADEAUX [ No wins or close 2nd in G1 + rated 114 ] , DREAM EATER [ rated 111 ] , WINDSOR PALACE [200/1 reflects it's chance ] and WINKER WATSON [ no wins/place G1 ] are discounted straight away .

TARIQ - Rated 115 and has finished 2nd [ btn 1l] in a Group 1 but has doubts about staing with no wins over the mile [ 3/4 were over 7f the other was a 6f race]

HENRYTHENAVIGATOR - Rated 124 and with 3 Grp 1 wins all over the mile looks sure to start a very short priced Fav .

RAVENS PASS - Rated 121 and although it has not won a Grp 1 it was only btn three quarters of a length by HTN at Royal Ascot , then was reportedly a shade unlucky when 2nd in a G1 over in France LTO means that i'm nominating this one to surprise the fav .
Should be no doubts about the distance and hopefully the small field will be to it's advantage.

[jtw1]

OOH so near !!! RAVENS PASS 2nd

Had no time to study post yesterday and today the First race has only just been upgraded to Grp 3 so no main bets today .
However i've done a bit of scouting around the other meetings and there's a couple at Thirsk that catch the eye .

2.05 - M CHANNON has ran 5 in this over the past 10 seasons with 3 winning at odds of 5/2, 11/4 and 7/2 .
The 2 unplaced were 12/1 and 33/1.
Today he runs SCENIC PASS who looks like starting in the top 3 in the betting , has a tricky draw but has been running well in Nurseries .

3.15 -
This has been won by a 3yo [8/9]
Southern trained [7/9]
FAV - [7/9]

As it stands right now - AFLAAM fits the bill although the trainer states that it might not run if the ground is unsuitable .
If thats the case just bet the FAV as it's sure to fit the other 2 stats .

[jtw1]

SCENIC PASS - UNP @ 11/4 F
AFLAAM 1ST @ 2/5 F

Another one of these in the 1st at Thirsk today -

2.00 -

8/10 FAVS
8/10 COLTS

M Johnston - 2wins
T Easteby - 2wins
M Channon - 1 win

Go with the FAV , providing it's one of the Colts.

[jtw1]

2.00 THIRSK 1st FAV @ 5/2

Simplicity is somtimes the best way !!!

[jtw1]

Back from hols and here's a tentative selection for Wednesday -

SALISBURY 4.05 10f Listed
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9/10 were returned at 13/2 or under
6/10 were 3yo's , 4/10 were 4yo's
8/9 with a BHA rating were rated 95+

Record of 4yo's that started 13/2 or under in the past 10 seasons= 1st , 1st , 1st [2nd was 4yo @ 7/1]

A FABRE has had 7 winners from 20 runners in the UK in the past 5 seasons


There looks like being 4 that will start around 13/2 or under on betfair and those are -

IN THE LIGHT
BASQUE BEAUTY
ICON PROJECT
CAPE AMBER

BASQUE BEAUTY [3yo] is only rated 90 but is only having it's 3 career outing here so is well open to improvement.
ICON PROJECT [3yo] rated 105 , will not run if there is further rain and the forecast isn't too promising.
CAPE AMBER [3yo] rated 104 , and comes from the CHAPPEL-HYAM yard who , despite having had a couple of lower grade winners in the past couple of days are still firing well short of expectation.

IN THE LIGHT comes from the A FABRE stable , definately a stranger at this course ] and is a 4yo .
It has won twice [once on SOFT the other on GOOD] and been placed 9 times from 12 runs , so it's consistent !!
R MOORE takes the ride here so with some doubts over the youngsters and the good record of fancied 4yos + FABRE'S UK record i think it could be worth an interest.

[jtw1]

IN THE LIGHT - UNP @ 3/1F

Trying to keep it simple and concentrating on Weekends only now the Footie has started .

3.15 NEWBURY Grp 2 7f
--------------------------

This has been upgraded to Grp 2 from Grp 3 in only the past couple of seasons but i think the same principles will apply .


9/10 were returned 13/2 or under [ 2 clear and 1 jt fav ]
10/10 had won over 7f
9/10 were 4yo+ [ only 1 3yo from 31 runners has been successful]
8/10 had won at Group /Listed grade
7/9 that had a BHA rating were rated 108+


Taking the first 5 in the betting we have -

PACO BOY and ALEXANDROS are 3yo's so thats them sorted
WELSH EMPEROR is now a 9yo and age must surely be catching up with him?
AL QASI has never won over 7f .
So the winner is - ARABIAN GLEAM who is top rated of the 5 , has won over 7f and won a Grp 2 .
The only negative is the fact he has not won on Softish ground but thats a chance the trainers willing to take so he knows best

[jtw1]

ARABIAN GLEAM 4th


Ain't gonna get involved with the Ebor meeting as YORK + HEAVY going do not favour the formbook or stats .
If i may offer a small bit of advice then it's follow the front runners .When the conditions are as bad as forecasted at this track it's VERY hard to show a turn of foot .

[jtw1]

WINDSOR 6.50 Grp 3 10f g/f
-------------------------------

10/10 were returned at 8/1 or under [ 5 favs]
10/10 had ran between 2 - 5 times that season
9/10 had won or been placed at Listed/Group level , those that had not won at those grade's had at least won a Class 2 event.
8/10 were rated 102+
8/10 had won that season
8/10 had been placed 1st - 4th LTO
5 x 3yo's have won
4 x 4yo's have won
Sir M Stoute has won this 4 times from 5 runners in the past 8 season's

Here's those that are on 8/1 or under with the bookies and reason's for selection/rejection.

SILVER PIVOTAL - has not ran since 15th March , so technically this is his turf seasonal debut.

SUPASEUS - 5yo

GULF EXPRESS - 4yo rated 105 who has ran 5 times this season , won at Cl 2 grade and won LTO .Trained by M STOUTE

STOTSFOLD - 5yo

BUSHMAN - Only won at Class 3 grade

UNNEFER - 3yo who is rated 111 , has won at Listed grade and been btn a sh-hd in a Grp 3 , ran 4 times this season winning twice but was out of the frame LTO.

Summary - GULF EXPRESS narrowly gets the vote from UNNEFER by the fact of it's placing LTO but mainly due to the STOUTE factor.

[jtw1]

Trying to regain an interest in our 4-legged friends , so being a naturally lazy sod here's a couple of quick pointers for Saturdays CHEPSTOW card .

3-40 - A Juvenile Novice Hurdle which has been won by the FAV no fewer than 8 times from the past 9 runnings .
So simply go for the Fav here .

4-15 - Phillip HOBB'S record here is 1 , 1 , 2 , 4 , 1 , 1 since 98' .
He has the probable 2nd Fav in the shape of I HEAR A SYMPHONY.